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| MOONEE VALLEY : COX PLATE - 23rd Oct 2010 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: MORE RAIN ! - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Lovely sunny weather heading into the weekend, but wait – what’s this? No way. Change on Friday night, chance of thunderstorms and rain Friday night and Saturday morning. Bugger. Why can’t we have a sunny day out at the races? This spring sucks big time. Generally when the rail goes back to TRUE at Moonee Valley the track just favours those running on coming out wide and swooping on the camber of the track. The rain is going to be a major factor here, bit hard to tell at the moment how much is going to come, but if you believe the BOM it does sound like its enough to affect the track. Currently a DEAD(4), looks like we are probably going to head towards a track on the worse side of dead, maybe even just into slow territory, which could throw the form out a bit. Track might cut up if it is deteriorating and last time we raced here daytime, rail TRUE on Dato Tan Stakes there no one wanted to be on the inside, and there was a fast lane for those swooping about 4 horses out on the turn. The other factor here is this damm silly push to run the feature race as late as possible to provide a lead in to the Channel Nine news, and to allow the Asian betting market to bet on the race at a time convenient for them. Oh – and to see precisely how incredibly smashed they can get a crowd of 35,000. Cox Plate is on at 5.35pm, so by the time we get to the feature you would think a fair bit of rain may have come down. Keep a close eye on the track conditions, there could be some serious money to be made if the form changes away from what is expected on a feature race day. Cox Plate day is often a deadly dull day to have a bet – seem to always get plenty of short priced favourites and not much in the way of value. Races 5,7,8 are all going to have very short priced favourites in them, but the other races are solid even betting races. RESULTS : The sun finally comes out - about 5:15 pm, so the extremely late main race was perfectly timed. Great days racing - there have been a few this spring, but we have some real supersstars around at the moment - BLACK CAVIAR, PRECEDENCE and of course, SO YOU THINK. Track races very fairly, they can win on pace or running on, though most winners sit just off the speed and swoop around the turn. Tips go pretty well, another profit in the Betting Portfolio and quinellas in the feature races. BEST BET : Race 7: 2-PRECEDENCE $10 WIN 1st W=$2.00 = 10 x 2 = $20 One of Bart’s stayers who is probably going to start extra short on the tote on a day that is heavily Bart focussed. Four runs this time in have all been excellent. Made it the best bet last start in the Herbert Power and probably should have won when the jockey was outridden, and the horse didn’t appreciate being kept tight in between two runners but still stuck it out really well to the line. Simply going better than these and drawn out today so should get lots of running room. If you go to the track check out this one, he is all muscle and dances around the mounting yard. Going to start short though so might have to back it in multiples to find some value. RESULTS : Lobs sitting outside runners a few back off the speed and never looks in doubt. Does start short, but some nice money to be made in pretty straight forward quinellas, trifectas and first fours. BEST WIN : Race 6: 4-SMOKIN’ JOEY, 11-ABSOLUTELYAWESOME $5 WIN X Usually we get a small field and a short priced favourite in the AAMI Vase, but actually have a great betting race this year and a very even field. The (4) makes a lot of appeal, he has been going along pretty well this time in, but hasn’t found a suitable race. 1st up probably wasn’t suited on the heavy track and was baulked for a run when not beaten far. 2nd up loomed into the race, but had to lump 59kgs so couldn’t finish it off. Never a chance from wide barrier, always wide on a strong on pacers track in the Caulfield Guineas last start and finished on just as well as the (7) which is the one that is going to get all the attention today. Not much speed here and you would think he could race handy and put himself into the race. The other one, the (11) has had only the 2 runs, but seems to be on the improve. Was finishing on nicely last start, and will also settle handy in a race with no speed. Have a win bet on both of them. RESULTS : 4-SMOKIN’ JOEY has to work and go forward, but box seats and stops very quickly. Trainer thinks he swallowed his tongue, but disappointing never the less. 11-ABSOLUTELYAWESOME gets a little too far back and struggles for runs, but is still disappointing BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 3-GOLD SALUTE $5 EW X Hasn’t had the best of luck in these feature miles over the years, but he brings some of it upon himself as he can play up in the barriers. Seems to be a lot of speed in this race, so you would think it is going to favour those running on. He is fitter for the 3 runs in, and should have a lot of improvement with the 1600M run last start, where he wasn’t beaten far and was finishing the race of nicely. Goes well at MV and handles it wet if the rain comes and just looks ready to do something today. RESULTS: Plays up at the barriers yet again, and finishes last. That was pretty much his last chance. BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 4-HAPPY TRAILS $5 WIN 2nd W=$6.90, P=$2.30 QUINELLA : Race 3: 4-HAPPY TRAILS, 8-SHINY AND NEW x $2 QUINELLA : Race 3: 4-HAPPY TRAILS, 6-THAT’S NOT IT x $2 1st 6-THAT’S NOT IT W=$16.50, 2nd 4-HAPPY TRAILS W=$6.90 Quinella : $54.40 = 54.40 x 2 = $108.80 This one was an eye catcher finishing on strongly last start, yet to finish further back than 4th in 5 starts which suggests might have a bit of ability. Just needs some speed in this race (there doesn’t appear to be that much) so he can run on. Instead of backing it each way, let’s take some quinellas. Should be some value in the quinellas with two solid on pace chances, the (6) and the (8). RESULTS : Lovely collect on a value quinella. Who wants to play it safe and have a wussy $5 the place and collect $10, when instead you can pick up $100 in quinellas !. Our Each Way bet does get too far back and gives an on pacer too much of a head start, but the quinella saves the day. BEST ROUGH : Race 9: 17-OUR TIGRESS (emerg) $3 EW X Last race looks a tough affair, big field, some of the better chances have drawn bad barriers. Actually doesn’t seem to be that much speed despite the big field, this one can race handy and should have a fair bit of improvement to come with the 2 runs in. Hit the lead at Caulfield last week inside the last 100M before one come out and ran over the top of her. Only lightly raced and looks like one that might be on the improve. Worth something each way at around $20, but needs to get into the field first. RESULTS : Perfect run on speed, but gone on the home turn. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 5 : 5-BULLBARS at around $6 SCR Looks way under the odds in a tough, even race with lots of chances. Has had every chance in his 4 runs this time in and just hasn’t been good enough. There are quite a few on the improve going around in this race, the (3),(4), (7),(8),(11), you would expect one of those is going to step up and win. Not sure why he keeps getting so much support, probably because of the stable, but definitely looks way under the odds and a confident lay bet. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. Race 4 : QUINELLA BOX 3,7,9,11,12 x 50 cents = $5 X Have a box quinella in an even betting race where we like the (3) each way. Take the best back markers (3), (9),(12), with the best on pacers (7), (11) and the quinella should pay well in an even field. SPENT : $50 RETURN :$ 128.80 NET : $+78.80 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO. PACE YOURSELF – LONG, LONG DAY Race 2: 4-FOLLONICA, 1-AMBERS WALTZ, 8-PLASTIC FANTASTIC Race 3: 4-HAPPY TRAILS, 8-SHINY AND NEW, 6-THAT’S NOT IT Race 4: 3-GOLD SALUTE, 12-FIREBOLT, 7-CONQUERING Race 5: 6-BLACK CAVIAR, 5-MELITO, 3-TRUE PERSUASION Race 6: 4-SMOKIN’ JOEY, 11-ABSOLUTELYAWESOME, 7-REKINDLED INTEREST Race 7: 2-PRECEDENCE, 5-ABOVE AVERAGE, 7-IRAZU Race 8: 5-SO YOU THINK, 1-ZIPPING, 6-SHOOT OUT Race 9: 17-OUR TIGRESS (emerg), 6-BELSCENICA, 5-STRAWBERRY FIELD, 12-ABSOLUTE FAITH |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-FOLLONICA 1-AMBERS WALTZ 3rd W=$3.30 8-PLASTIC FANTASTIC |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-HAPPY TRAILS 2nd W=$6.90 8-SHINY AND NEW 6-THAT’S NOT IT 1st W=$16.50 Quinella : $54.40 *** nice value box quinella *** |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-GOLD SALUTE 12-FIREBOLT 7-CONQUERING |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-BLACK CAVIAR 1st W=$1.40 5-MELITO 3-TRUE PERSUASION 3rd W=$4.20 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-SMOKIN’ JOEY 11-ABSOLUTELYAWESOME 7-REKINDLED INTEREST 1st W=$4.90 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-PRECEDENCE 1st W=$2.00 5-ABOVE AVERAGE 2nd W=$10.70 7-IRAZU Quinella : $9.80 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-SO YOU THINK 1st W=$1.60 1-ZIPPING 2nd W=$12.90 6-SHOOT OUT Quinella : $8.50 |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 17-OUR TIGRESS 6-BELSCENICA 5-STRAWBERRY FIELD |
| RACE 8: COX PLATE 2040M GROUP 1 WFA |
| Tips: 5-SO YOU THINK 1st W=$1.60 1-ZIPPING 2nd W=$12.90 6-SHOOT OUT Quinella : $8.50 |
| Others: - Pace: EVEN – leader can dictate Leaders : 4-WALL STREET Handy : 1-ZIPPING, 3-LUEN YAT FOREVER, 5-SO YOU THINK, 9-AVIENUS, 10-MORE JOYOUS Back : 2-WHOBEGOTYOU, 6-SHOOT OUT, 7-TRUSTING, 8-CAPTAIN SONADOR Chances: 1-ZIPPING is known as tough as nails, and has been around forever, but just keeps producing. Finally got that Turnbull Stakes victory last start – that was his 5th try at the race. They really applied the pressure up front in that race and turned it into a tough slog, and if the going gets tough, this fella is the one you want. Placed 3 from 4 this track and distance. Ran 3rd in this race last year behind the (5) when he looked utterly gone on the turn, but managed to plough on and come back again. 2nd in this race in 2008 when they dawdled and jockey had to set him alight early and jockey actually thought he should have won the race. You can never really rule this guy out. Tough, older place getters from previous years have had a good record in this race recently, so you can actually make a pretty strong case for this one. Also worth nothing in his previous Cox Plate placings he hasn’t been good enough to win the Turnbull before hand so he might even be going better this year?. If there are any chinks in the favourites armour this is the one most likely to take advantage of them. Rough chance. 2nd W=$12.90 5-SO YOU THINK needs no introduction – currently clearly the best horse in Australia, potentially on his way to being a utter, utter freak. Came out of the blue in this race last year and totally smashed a handy field, and you just can’t fluke a win like that. Given a solid year off, had a throat operation and has come out this Spring and lived up to his potential. Was vulnerable 1st up in the Memsie, on a slow track, but still managed to win. Got fractious in the barriers in the Underwood, and over raced a little before clearing away. Dominant smashing win last start in the Yalumba. He really could be anything, and could be the best horse we have seen for a long time. Attempting to win his second Cox Plate at only his 10th start is unprecedented. Another big plus is that he races handy so can sit just on the speed here and make his own luck. So what are his dangers? In this field, probably nothing. Main danger is probably himself, he got fired up and over raced in the Emirates last year, and started to play up a bit in the Underwood – if he doesn’t settle for whatever reason then he is vulnerable. But he seems to have learnt how to settle and when he does he is close to unbeatable. The other factor is the rain – and haven’t heard many people take this into account yet. He is vulnerable on a genuine slow track – did win 1st up in the Memsie on a slow track, but jockey did say afterwards he didn’t really handle it. He was entered for the Liston Stakes the week before that, but was SCR when the track was too wet. Just keep an eye on how much rain is coming our way – and remember this race is on very late in the day too. On a wet track he would probably drift in betting a little so there is probably the potential to make a guaranteed profit laying then backing him again on Betfair. Even on a wet track would be extremely hard to beat though, and good chance he will win today, and nothing at all to stop him winning the Melbourne Cup as well. One to beat. 1st W=$1.60 6-SHOOT OUT has been toughing it away, week in, week out all spring and he just keeps coming back for more. Very consistent type who has been in the finish of every race he has competed in this time in. Like that he is hard and fit going into a major stoush, it is often those ones that plug on in these high pressure races. Wet track no problem. Last start he was in a 3 way battle to the line in the Turnbull, toughing it out off a fast speed. Ended up in the no go zone on the inside here 2 starts back in the Dato Tan, and he struggled a little getting around the turn at track work before that race so you think he would be improved for the run at the course. Obviously going to have a lot of sentiment riding with him with his poor jockey passing away suddenly during the week. Was only 1.5L from the (5) in the Memsie, and was making ground on him on the line so not hopeless in this. Wants a tough fast race run and he can grind away over the top of them. Form is good enough and is fit enough. Rough chance. 4th W=$12.10 Place: 4-WALL STREET is the other mystery element in this race, being a well performed NZ visitor with an impressive win strike rate. The one he beat last start in NZ won pretty impressively at Caulfield last week so the form does hold up. Didn’t do much in only other previous Australian start in this years Doncaster, but worth noting he didn’t have that much support that day either. Seems to be in peak form at the moment, and accomplished wet tracker if the rain continues to come and we end up on a genuine slow. Likely leader too. Look back over this race over the years and a few times a leader has pinched this race, stacking them up in front, whilst all the others are playing tactical battles out the back. Just watch the racing pattern, if the rain comes, and the leaders are sticking on, maybe just have a little play bet on this one on the tote where he is likely to start way over the odds. Rough – prefer place. 10-MORE JOYOUS is the toast of Sydney town having won all 4 starts this time in and a whopping 8 wins in a row. That suggests again she could be anything, you don’t string together winning sequences like that unless you are something seriously out of the ordinary. Impressive win in the Toorak, tough, gritty, she ploughed it out carrying top weight and she came down the middle of the track on a day when on pacers were strongly favoured. Extremely well weighted as a result against those coming through that race. Wet is no problem. Lovely barrier means she can sit just behind the speed here and you suspect she is going to pop up on the rails as they turn and loom as a genuine danger. Very hard to win on the rails here though when the rail is TRUE – they tend to swoop down the outside and over the top of you. 1st start this track and 1st try at the 2000M are the queries. She is probably going to look extremely dangerous as they turn into the straight, but can just see them coming over the top of her out wide. Though if she wins then Gai is going to be on track to win all 3 Melbourne majors. Prefer place. Sacking: 2-WHOBEGOTYOU was ridden to beat the favourite last start in the Yalumba, and he broke him – badly. He was all broken. Poor WHOBE. Trainer has stated he is going to let him run his own race today, but you just don’t turn around 5L thrashings in a couple of weeks under the same conditions. Plus with this one is MV, he is totally in love with the track, 5 wins from 6 starts – only flop was in last year’s Cox Plate when he started a well supported favourite and did pull up sore on the hard track. Bit of rain around this year is a huge bonus for this one – definitely seems to need some give in the ground to show his best, was ready to write him off all together otherwise. Still that bit of a question mark over him past 1600M, and as we always like to point out, is a concern that he last 3 wins have all been in gimme WFA fields of 8, 8 and 10, where half the field aren’t even competitive. Will drop back, sit and wait to pounce – was a solid win here in the Dato Tan 2 starts back. Loomed up like he was going to go past the (5) 1st up in the Memsie, but wasn’t good enough – and thought he had his chance that day if he was ever going to beat him. They have met 3 times and its 0-3, so the scoreboard is telling the story. Wet suits, MV suits, still query for us at the 2000M and prefer to let run today. No 3rd W=$11.80 3-LUEN YAT FOREVER is the ambitious Macau, Karate Kid style under dog trying to take on the big Australian bullys on their home turf. Imposing record back home, look at that long line of 1s and 2s in his form. Actually showed some ability in the Toorak, much to everyone’s surprise – started $101 – guess everyone thought he was probably another JOLIE'S SHINJU and didn’t give him much of a chance. Interestingly has never run past 1800M. Wonder if maybe you just send this one to the lead and see how you go? Bit of a mystery element, everyone is assuming the Macau form isn’t much good, but he was competitive in the Toorak. Does meet the (10) a whopping 6kgs worse off from that run – and she had the tougher run in that race. Hard to see this one being a factor, but will blow out to silly odds, especially on the tote, and sometimes in a tough Cox Plate no namers can pop up in the placings. No chance, but don’t be scared to throw it in for the silly trifectas and first fours if you are looking for a big dividend. No 7-TRUSTING has always shown so much potential, but never quite stepped up to the mark. Has been going pretty well this time in, has loomed up threateningly in all his races, but has always found one better. He looms up like he is going to unleash something special – but doesn’t finish it off. Trainer has made him jump some logs this week to fire him up, and so often that does do the trick. Think they stole the idea from Donkey Kong? Has always been a bit of an enigma, if he lived up to his potential he could win this, but will he ever show what he is capable of ? Wants a fast run race, and for them to be swooping down the middle of the track, not sure he is going to get that. Barrier 1 is a real turn off too, think he wants clear running room and a swooshing run. 1st try at MV, and 1st try at the 2000M make it that extra tougher a task. Hard to have. 8-CAPTAIN SONADOR is coming off an Epsom win and not sure that is the right form for this race. Was carrying bottom of the weights too in a handicap, into a tough Group 1 WFA race doesn’t look very well weighted. Looks a bit of a query on a track slow or worse if the rain comes. Failed at only try over the 2000M, and having 1st start at MV and 1st start in Melbourne. Will blow out to huge odds and will probably start well over the odds on the tote. Nothing wrong with form, plus with this one is no expectations so the jockey can just sit out the back and do his own thing, whilst the serious contenders bust a gut with their plans to unseat the favourite. Can’t see him winning, but no reason why he can’t run a place and will be over the odds so one for the wide trifectas and first fours if that is your thing. No 9-AVIENUS is just about our favourite horse at the moment. She has been going along really well, smashing win here 3 starts back in the Stock Stakes, then sat handy and took off early again in the JRA Cup, but didn’t quite seem to run out the 2000M – although she was up again PRECEDENCE, ALCOPOP, LINTON so it was a strong form race. Was actually hopelessly unlucky in the Toorak and many seem to have missed that run – dropped back a lot further than usual, got badly held up for runs half way down the straight for about 100M and finally held her ground when scooted though a gap. She was only beaten 1.6L and that hold up cost her 1-2L so she should have gone close to winning that race. Hopelessly weighted against the (10) thought – 6.5 kgs worse off from last run. Would have loved to have had a serious bash at her in the Crystal Mile today, but the owners want to have their glory and see her run in a Cox Plate. Hope they at least give her a ribbon of encouragement for effort, cause damm hard to see her winning. Looks a definite query at the 2000M to us – and this is often a tough run 2000M. Jockey will position her close to the speed, so don’t be surprised if she is the 1st to scoot off and go for home, but suspect she will be safely run down. Outclassed, another who will start monster odds on the tote, but nothing wrong with form so wide multiples looking for blow out results is worth putting her in. No Summary: Going to be a great tactical race to watch – everyone, including some bookmakers are pretty much saying 5-SO YOU THINK is over the line, and that may very much be true, but will be interesting to see how the others ride to try and beat him. 5-SO YOU THINK should lob just on the speed, sitting outside horses, 10-MORE JOYOUS will be getting a perfect smother on the rail behind the speed. 2-WHOBEGOTYOU will be sitting out the back, biding his time. The real question here is what type of Cox Plate are we going to get? Is it going to be a high pressure, everyone go for home early race which favours the toughest and the strongest? Or a everyone waiting, waiting, dawdle and sprint type race like the year MALDIVAN won ? Actually suspect the later – can see 4-WALL STREET leading here and stacking them up, whilst the rest of the field is overly favourite conscious. Of course they could always just put the race behind doubt, send 5-SO YOU THINK rolling to the lead like last year and destroy them. It is not unprecedented for some of these silly $100 shots to run races and fill the placings. Their form is OK, and often the pressure race can bring undone those who are seriously trying to win as opposed to those who are just going around so they can wave proudly to their owners in the straight and say “Look at me – aren’t I so special and pretty ?”. Think NORTHERN DRAKE 2nd at 100-1 in 1998 behind MIGHT AND POWER coming off a nothing run in the Toorak. REFERRAL 3rd at 125-1 in 2000 behind SUNLINE coming off a nothing run in the Epsom. WONDERFUL WORLD 2nd at $41 in 2007 coming off a Toorak placing. Nothing wrong with taking a wide trifecta with the favourite to win and throwing in things like the (3), (7), (8), (9) for the placings, all of them have OK form and will start wildly over the odds. Other question is what is the correct odds for the favourite ? The $1.55 or so currently on offer does look a little under the odds to us. MIGHT AND POWER was around $1.70 in 1998, and he had won the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups the year before. SUNLINE was around $2.30 when she won her 2nd Cox Plate in 2000, though she had been beaten at her previous start. NORTHERLY was $3.50 in his first Cox Plate win in 2001, though he was up against SUNLINE, but had come off wins in the Yalumba, Underwood and Feehan in the lead up (wow those odds look kinda good in hindsight don’t they ?). MAKYBE DIVA was $2.00 in her Cox Plate win in 2005, she came off wins in the Turnbull and the Memsie, and had won the previous two Melbourne Cups. The favourite has been dominant in his wins leading into this, but is it just us or does 5-SO YOU THINK look a little under the odds in comparison ? Whatever you do if you want to back the favourite shop around for the best odds. Suspect he is going to open up extremely short on the tote – extremely short – like $1.20 territory and will probably start around $1.40. Realistically based on the odds above you would think you should be able to get $1.70 or so on the day ? Expect a slight betting drift if the rain comes and track ends up worse side of dead or slow. Does look like 4-WALL STREET is going to get a soft lead, and if we get substantial rain and the leaders are sticking on OK he is a rough blow out chance. 10-MORE JOYOUS sitting on the rails behind them, 9-AVIENUS outside her, and the favourite 5-SO YOU THINK out wide behind the leading pack. Suspect 9-AVIENUS will be the 1st to make her move, and might even scoot clear before the turn, but she should stop early in the straight, 10-MORE JOYOUS will poke up threateningly on the rails, but you would think 5-SO YOU THINK would run over them down the middle of the track and win with 1-ZIPPING, 6-SHOOT OUT in hot pursuit. We are not a fan of backing short priced favourites, even though this looks like a good thing, so we will probably just play with some value trifectas around the favourite winning, one of the obvious dangers filling a placing, and one of the bolters getting into the finish. Some thing like : 5 / 1, 6 / 3,4,7,8,9 = $5 for 50 cents 5 / 3,4,7,8,9 / 1, 6 = $5 for 50 cents One to risk: 2-WHOBEGOTYOU 3rd W=$11.80 Roughie: 4-WALL STREET The Key: The favourite settles – he wins. RESULTS : Result was never in doubt from the time 5-SO YOU THINK lobbed one out and one back just off the speed. Main danger was bloody silly international horse 3-LUEN YAT FOREVER racing erratically inside him, probably had quite a few punters holding their breath. 10-MORE JOYOUS gets to lead and dictate - had every chance, and broken by the favourite. Solid honest runs as always from 1-ZIPPING, 6-SHOOT OUT, and yes even 2-WHOBEGOTYOU who ridden cold finished off the race nicely. Was quite impressed with 2-WHOBEGOTYOU's run - he ran the 2000M right out so we will officially resign from bagging the poor fella. Solid effort from 9-AVIENUS who loomed at one stage, back to a 1600M race she is going to be very hard to beat. On to the Melbourne Cup for 5-SO YOU THINK |
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