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Cox Plate -
Melbourne Cup |
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| MOONEE VALLEY : COX PLATE - 27th Oct 2012 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 3M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Bit cold and miserable heading into the weekend in Melbourne, with some rain around. Probably might take the edge off this track, so looking a genuine DEAD, but might get a little worse than that with two meetings scheduled and consistent showers over the weekend. The big question mark is going to be how this track races with a Friday night / Saturday double header. Traditionally for Cox Plate Day the rail is in the TRUE position, and usually that position at MV favours those swooping around the camber on the home turn. They have decided to keep the rail TRUE for the Friday night meeting and bring it out 3M for the feature meeting. No reason to think the track won’t race evenly, but just keep an eye on the racing pattern in case a distinct pattern emerges. The fields are smallish so there shouldn’t be too many issues with those struggling to get a clear run around the tight MV turns. Generally though the more the rail goes out at MV the more chance there is of a leader’s track and with small fields there might not be too much pressure up front in some of these races. As always Cox Plate Day is pretty much the most boring betting day of the year – always small fields and lots of short priced favourites. This year seems particularly bad, very small fields, very hard to find anything over $5 with a solid winning chance, except for the main race. Very little fun to be had at all, all the quinellas and trifectas are going to be very skinny so hard to find any value chances and collects. RESULTS: Has to be said that the track raced extremely fairly over both the Friday night and Saturday meeting and held up really well. Horses could win from anywhere. Despite the whinging about the short priced favourites and small fields there was plenty of value winners and none of the favourite runners saluted ! Who would have thought - a string a $7 winners on Cox Plate Day ? So in hindsight we went a little conservative with the tips, there were plenty of winners away from the obvious picks. There is a distinct lack of winners in the tips, but the Betting Portfolio managed to squeeze out a profit. BEST BET: Race 9: 5-STAR OF GISELLE $10 WIN 1st W=$4.50 = 4.5 x 10 = $45 Have to admit this one has never been a horse of ours, but suspect she has gone up another notch this time in. Thought she was a real query at the 1400M even, but she has stepped up in distance each time, got soft leads and just kept on winning. Should still have improvement to come with the 3 runs in, nicely weighted in this, looks likely to get a soft lead again and looks hard to beat. Maybe only query is a strong 1600M if there is any pressure on, but hard to go past her on current form at around $3.30. RESULTS: Gets the drifts for some reason and gets out to pretty damn good odds. Leads all the way and a nice way to finish the day. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 4-IRONSTEIN $5 EW 3rd W=$4.70, P=$1.70 = 5 x 1.70 = $8.50 QUINELLA: Race 6: 4-IRONSTEIN, 2-PRECEDENCE x $2.50 3rd 4-IRONSTEIN W=$4.70 QUINELLA: Race 6: 4-IRONSTEIN, 5-SHENZHOU STEEDS x 2.50 3rd 4-IRONSTEIN W=$4.70 Moonee Valley Cup is at least an even betting race. This one is fitter for the 4 runs in, especially the run over the 2400M, can be hard to catch but seems to be racing pretty well at the moment. Maybe would just prefer track to stay better side of dead, but just looks ready to win. Finished off really well here under lights a few weeks back and solid run in what was a pretty ferociously contested Herbert Power. Needs enough speed to run on here though, so back each way, save with quinellas on the (2) who is coming through similar form lines and loves MV, and the best on pacer is probably the (5) who was going along well this time in till he struck a very firm track, little bit of give here will suit that one and should be ready to do something now and not much pressure up front here. The (4) looks a solid each way bet at around $6. RESULTS: Has plenty to give in the run home, but has nowhere to go and runs about trying to take an inside run. Actually quite unlucky and if he had got out and rolling would have probably challenged the winner here. TRIFECTA: Race 5: 1-IT’S A DUNDEEL / 7-NISOS / 2,3,4 x $5 = 166 % 2nd 1-IT’S A DUNDEEL / X / 1st 4-SUPER COOL W=$8.30 TRIFECTA: Race 5: 1-IT’S A DUNDEEL / 2,3,4 / 7-NISOS x $4 = 133 % 2nd 1-IT’S A DUNDEEL / 1st 4-SUPER COOL W=$8.30 / X Unbeaten short priced favourite in the Vase, the 1-IT’S A DUNDEEL and pretty hard to see it getting beaten. The value runner here though is definitely the 7-NISOS who has been coming along nicely, fitter for the 3 runs in and just looks like he wants extra distance. Think he is capable of rapid improvement here. Try and make something out of this race by anchoring the favourite to win and rotating the (7) through the placings in the trifecta. RESULTS: Short priced favourite DOES get beaten - and of course it is by one we made our best bet last start. Love it when that happens - has been a common theme this year if you look back over the Betting Portfolio - the horses we tip winning at their next start or start after. QUINELLA: Race 3: 3-MIDNIGHT MARTINI, 1-EXTRA ZERO x $5 2nd 3-MIDNIGHT MARTINI W=$2.40 These two look most likely to fight out Race 3. The (3) won nicely last start in the Cranbourne Cup and can position right on the speed here in a small field and a bit of give in the ground suits. The (1) can be very hard to catch, but fitter for the 3 runs in and loomed up like the winner last start. He probably wants the track to stay firmer though. Suspect they fight out the finish so take a quinella. RESULTS: Slow speed and the short priced favourite looms as the winner but gets out sprinted to the line. No speed on means the (1) had very little chance but he is hard to catch. BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 7-GALBRAITH $3 EW 3rd W=$25.80, P=$4.20 = 4.20 x 3 = $12.60 The second race of the day is one of the few that there at least seems a chance of something getting up at odds, so let’s push for this one at around $21. Very speedy, should get rails from inside barrier and around the tight MV 1000M, kick, jump and lead seems to be the way to go. Led last start and just wobbled towards the end but when he is fit and in form is very hard to run down over this trip. Probably only decent value bet for the day. Each way. RESULTS: Gives us a great run for our money, leads, kicks in the straight and he is fading and they are coming but he is in front till about 30M to go and really didn't miss by much. Almost landed a tasty roughie. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 9-MIDAS TOUCH at around $4.40 8th W=$4.00 Form line reads 00074, but currently sitting favourite in this field. Sure looks well suited under the weight scale and will roll to the lead here with not much pressure, but seems to need a genuine firm track to show best, and really hasn’t shown anything this time in. Think you would have to be pretty brave to take these odds and happy to risk. RESULTS: Never looks likely and is beaten a long way from home. Still surprised he had so much support with form that was pretty ordinary. Successful lay. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. TRIFECTA: Race 8: 4,14 /1,3,4,7,9,10,13,14/ 4,9,10,14 x $5 = 13.88% X / 1st 9-OCEAN PARK W=$6.10 / X Best chance of a dividend today seems to be to try and grab the trifecta in a very even Cox Plate. Tactics here are narrow it down to our two main chances to win, the 4-GREEN MOON, 14-PROISIR, and go for value by hoping something on pace pokes through for second at odds, thinking along the lines of 1-SHOOT OUT, 3-GLASS HARMONIUM and 7-HAPPY TRAILS, and just put the usual suspects in for third. Pretty much the only race today where the trifecta is likely to reach triple figures so might as well have a stab at it. RESULTS: Not really that close, but the favourites fought out the finish regardless so the trifecta was on the skinny side. RESULT: PROFIT SPENT: $50 RETURN: $66.10 NET: $+16.10 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACES. HANG ON WEREN’T WE AT MV LAST NIGHT ? Race 2: 7-GALBRAITH, 1-KULGRINDA, 9-I GET AROUND Race 3: 3-MIDNIGHT MARTINI, 1-EXTRA ZERO, 5-DESTINY’S KISS Race 4: 1-CHOSEN MOMENT, 6-ESSAY RAIDER, 7-CAVALRY ROSE Race 5: 1-IT’S A DUNDEEL, 7-NISOS, 2-VIKING STAR Race 6: 4-IRONSTEIN, 2-PRECEDENCE, 5-SHENZHOU STEEDS Race 7: 6-AMBIDEXTER, 2-SOLZHENITSYN, 5-TOKUGAWA Race 8: 4-GREEN MOON, 14-PROISIR, 9-OCEAN PARK Race 9: 5-STAR OF GISELLE, 1-SPIRIT SONG, 6-PRETTY PINS |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-GALBRAITH 3rd W=$25.80 *** Best Roughie of the Day *** 1-KULGRINDA 9-I GET AROUND 2nd W=$2.10 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-MIDNIGHT MARTINI 2nd W=$2.40 1-EXTRA ZERO 5-DESTINY’S KISS 3rd W=$3.60 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-CHOSEN MOMENT 3rd W=$5.70 6-ESSAY RAIDER 7-CAVALRY ROSE |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-IT’S A DUNDEEL 2nd W=$1.20 7-NISOS 2-VIKING STAR 3rd W=$11.70 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-IRONSTEIN 3rd W=$4.70 2-PRECEDENCE 5-SHENZHOU STEEDS |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-AMBIDEXTER 2-SOLZHENITSYN 3rd W=$4.50 5-TOKUGAWA |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-GREEN MOON 14-PROISIR 9-OCEAN PARK 1st W=$6.10 |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-STAR OF GISELLE 1st W=$4.50 *** Best Bet of the Day *** 1-SPIRIT SONG 3rd W=$3.10 6-PRETTY PINS |
| RACE 8: COX PLATE 2040M GROUP 1 WFA |
| Tips: 4-GREEN MOON 14-PROISIR 9-OCEAN PARK 1st W=$6.10 |
| Others: 13,10,3 Pace: EVEN Leaders: 3-GLASS HARMONIUM, 10-MORE JOYOUS Handy: 1-SHOOT OUT , 4-GREEN MOON, 7-HAPPY TRAILS, 12-PIERRO, 14-PROISIR Back: 2-SINCERO , 5-REKINDLED INTEREST, 6-LINTON, 8-ETHIOPIA, 9-OCEAN PARK, 11-SOUTHERN SPEED , 13-ALL TOO HARD Chances: 3-GLASS HARMONIUM doesn’t look a factor in this on current form, but reckon he is worth having a closer look at. Fitter for the 2 runs in, 1st up in the Rupert Clarke was really good poking up along rails, then was very flighty before the Toorak, didn’t jump cleanly and was beaten a long way out. He is better than that and might be ready to improve rapidly today. He has always had barrier problems and there was some drama with him in this race last year when one went through the front and he was kept in the barriers for too long and missed the start giving him no chance when he would normally go forward. He showed his true form the start after with a lead all the way win in the Mackinnon. Drawn inside and likely leader here in a field with not that much speed so is a chance to dictate the speed here. Despite his long odds he is capable of rapid improvement and on his best form would be a solid chance in this. You will know soon after they jump – if he pings to the lead then he is a chance of an upset, if he dawdles out then it is all over. Would like them to just burn along in front and try and pinch this in a boilover. Betting on spec a bit, but best rough chance in this. Rough. 4-GREEN MOON is one that there is strong interest for and fair enough too, especially with Craig Williams aboard who is a chance to make it an astounding Caulfield Cup – Cox Plate double two years in a row. Actually – that sounds almost impossible, it is almost a reason to drop off this one. Showed a lot of upside and campaign was switched from the Caulfield Cup to this race. At peak now with the 3 runs in, 1st up ridden back and really given no chance but flew home. 2nd up in the Dato Tan he loomed up like he was going to cruise to victory but either the jockey was a little too pretty or he just ran out of puff and he just failed to get there. Raced forward and looked the winner a fair way out in the Turnbull. 4 wins from 5 starts now over 2000M is starting to look pretty damn good. He probably wants the track to stay on the firmer side of dead. He has beaten home quite a few of these in the lead up races. Drawn a nice barrier, should sit just behind the speed here and be given every chance. Turnbull Stakes form didn’t really hold up in the Caulfield Cup though. Likely to be around the finish, might depend on whether he gets a little more dour as his campaign progresses or retains some turn of foot. Really take out his Lexus flop at the end of last spring and his form over the last year is by far the best of this field. Hard to beat. 9-OCEAN PARK has been showing that WFA turn of foot and class that you want going into this race. Right at peak with the 3 runs in, had the 2000M run this time in, is a winner and going for 4 wins on end. Probably has a bit more untapped ability than many of these. Like the way he forced his way through the gap 2nd up in the Underwood to dash through and pounce on the leader. Last start victory wasn’t pretty, but small fields can be tricky and runner up franked the form in the Caulfield Cup last week. Question mark might be how far he drops back here and how much of a head start he gives those in front of him. But he has the turn of foot you need to dash around the bend in this race and put yourself in the right position. Strong chance. 1st W=$6.10 13-ALL TOO HARD is last week’s giant killer who seems to have returned to his best form – finally. Looked like he was going to be a super star in his early 2YO wins, and was all ready planning a long undefeated winning streak before the (12) spoilt the party in Sydney. Just plugged along in his 3 Sydney runs this time in which were OK, but hard to get enthused about. Then back to best form in the Caulfield Guineas when he came out and caused a upset and bought the (12) down a notch. This race is more of an afterthought, with that race being the main spring target. Does look like he is a different horse in Melbourne and much better this way of going – in fact he is still undefeated in 4 Melbourne starts. He appeals as a strong finishing rangey staying type, and think that is the type of 3YO you want to back in this race (if any). Likely to drop back here from inside barrier so might need a little luck getting clear, probably has to wait for them to go early and then come around the whole field. But like his form, liked the last start win and like that you are getting better odds here than the (12) who he beat home last start, and this one actually looks more suited in this race. Strong chance. 2nd W=$8.30 14-PROISIR makes up the trio of 3YOs and the trio of Waterhouse runners, and is probably the one we give the strongest chance to from that stable. Like that he has had the 2000M run this time in, and he actually has quite similar form to SAVABEEL who won this race as a 3YO. Only the 4 starts and still in his first preparation. He appeals as the staying type 3YO who we think are better suited to this race. Drawn out and might get caught wide here and likely to press forward. Really done very little wrong in his career so hard to knock form. Maybe only slight query is that he is relatively inexperienced, hasn’t raced this way of going and has to go around the tight MV circuit in a hustle bustle feature. He did seem to get a little lost at track work at Flemington this week. Staying type, racing handy, no weight, lots of upside so genuine chance though. Chance. Place: 1-SHOOT OUT is a well performed Sydney sider who ran 4th in this race in 2010. Only had the 2 runs this time in, impressive effort to win 1st up over 1600M, then just fair lumping big weight in the Epsom. Obviously he is quite forward but prefer them to have 3 or more runs going into feature 2000M race. He did win over 2400M as a 3YO, but since then has not won past 1600M despite having quite a few runs over further. He has been thereabouts over the longer trips, but often safely held, so his 2000M form is starting to look a little ordinary. Very little mention of him in the lead up to this and has got out to good odds. Guess from good barrier he is actually capable of getting a very nice position behind the speed here, he races more forward than many of these. Hard to see him winning but another at odds who could easily stick on for a place, especially just rolling on speed whilst all the backmarkers jostle for a run out the back. Place 7-HAPPY TRAILS is racing in the best form his career and is having a spring time to remember. Previously he was a perpetually unlucky drop out and run on late horse that was always flying home, held up, or just that bit too late. This spring he has been ridden more forward – and guess what? He has been winning and even going up in grade. Actually fair effort that he has improved to this level to be here today. 4 runs in and a 2000M run will mean he is ready for a tough competitive race here. The question mark is always going to be a strong 2000M, but he wasn’t beaten that far last start at his only try at the distance in the Turnbull. Has good MV form. Looked to be well covered coming to the turn here in the Dato Tan by the (4), but that one seemed to run out of puff, but even the jockey jumped off that day and admitted that he thought he was going to get beaten and that the 2000M today would be a query. Guess he has been beaten home by the (2) and the (4) this time in so they will probably do it again. Drawn a nice barrier though, is going to go forward in a race with not much speed and think he probably represents a nice value place chance seeing he is going so well this time in. Suspect he will find one better in this class over 2000M though. Place. 10-MORE JOYOUS has rapidly fallen out of favour for this race. Cox Plate betting is more of a popularity contest than the Big Brother evictions. Outstanding Sydney mare who just keeps winning, so often though only in small fields that are sit sprint. Seems much more vulnerable when bought to Melbourne – has won 21 from 29 overall, but only 2 from 6 in Melbourne – so 4 of her 8 defeats have been down here. Not sure she has been placed the best in her trips down here. We were very keen to take her on last start, big weight, light preparation, and of course being ridden hard up the hill did not help. Jockey will be keen to make amends today. She has had a much lighter preparation than her rivals, going 1200M/1400M/1600M and up to the 2000M today – and do prefer them to have had a 2000M run or 2 x 1600M runs going into these feature races. Trainer pulled a surprise picking a wide barrier, but she should go forward here and sit just outside the speed. Ran in this race in 2010 as well, when was touted as the main danger to the favourite SO YOU THINK, but was one of the first beaten. That put a question mark over her at the 2000M, however she did manage to come out and win in the Queen Elizabeth over that distance in the Autumn. Bit of give in the ground probably suits. If you like her the odds do seem quite generous, she is a proven winner, she had excuses last start, she will go forward here and sit outside a moderate tempo, you could actually make a decent case for her. Actually was ready to write her off but on doing the form putting her in with a rough chance here – if you are a fan you will love the odds on offer. Rough. Sacking: 2-SINCERO has been set for this race and really hasn’t done anything wrong so a bit hard to rule him out of this contest. Right at peak now with the 3 runs in which have all been competitive. Was primed for a 1st up win and peeled out and went ping. 2nd up he fought on well behind the (9) and 3rd up he was suited by the sit sprint small field and was right in the finish. Guess he has met the (9) twice though under these conditions last month or so and has been beaten both times. The 2000M here is the question mark – wasn’t beaten very far at all last start, but that was a small field and the race was run to suit him. His 3 other 2000M runs were all in Melbourne last spring, and they weren’t the best, but it did appear he had come to the end of his preparation so they might not be that conclusive. Has been specifically set for this race this spring is the big difference. Drawn out and likely to drop back, but has the turn of foot to put himself into the race at the right time. Stable has said they will ride him cold, not sure that is a good idea, he only just gets the distance at best would have thought he would better placed just off the speed and trying to pinch a break on them. Just over 2000M, meeting one who has had his measure this spring and giving many of these a start happy to go around him. He has got out to pretty good odds though based on his form and won’t be far away though. Passing. 5-REKINDLED INTEREST is one that to be honest, we love to hate. He has made a career out of flashy finishing bursts, but really just isn’t winning that often. Probably hate him cause we tipped him so often and got sucked in. Fitter for the 3 runs in, didn’t think much of the 1st up run despite the jockey’s excuses, come home well 2nd up but was well held by the (4) and the (7) who go around here. Stable admitted he was behind in his preparation 3rd up and the blinkers went on to try and fire him up but he was pretty disappointing. Does seem to keep best form for MV, especially with a bit of give in the ground (but not too much give), which is the likely conditions today. Ran 3rd in this race last year when a little unlucky and guess his lead up form isn’t that much different in the same races. But the big issue we have with this one is the barrier – barrier (1), there doesn’t seem to be a lot of speed in this race and he is a drop back and wait for the unlucky story to write itself horse so quite likely that is going to happen again. Risking. 6-LINTON seems to have been around forever and has never quite lived up to the huge potential he showed as a 3YO. With a new stable compared to previous years who seem willing to give him a go. Good run 1st up in the Dato Tan when was finishing on hard from behind, then raced more forward against his usual pattern in the Turnbull and gave in pretty quickly. Bit hard to know how well he is going. Although he has MV form suspect he is best at Flem on firm ground. Drawn outside here, likely to drop back and hard to get enthused about how he is going. No 8-ETHIOPIA is extremely lightly raced and trainer is setting new benchmarks with the training of this one and placement – winning an AJC Derby at only his 4th start was an amazing effort. Only given the 2 lead up runs into this, but you would think he wouldn’t need much being so lightly raced, and his run in the Turnbull was really good finishing on late. Has to be said though his Turnbull run was similar to SNEAK A PEEK who went around in the Caulfield Cup last week and who didn’t do much - in fact most of the runners from the Turnbull did very little last week, so maybe a slight question mark over the form. Interesting that they have picked out this race, he is still in the Melbourne Cup, and would be unusual to go in that race with only 3 lead in runs. He does look ready to perform, but he just looks a solid, staying type who wants some space and distance, the run at Flemington was really good, but just not sure a hustle bustle Cox Plate is right for him. Needs a long clear run at them. He will almost certainly go onto something big this spring, but find it hard to push his chances today, especially if he gets cluttered up midfield in a race with not much speed. Risking. 4th W=$15.90 11-SOUTHERN SPEED is a tough old thing, even though she is only five. Form this spring had been pretty good before mysterious flop in the Turnbull where the jockey said she didn’t feel right. Form this spring has probably been as good if not better than last spring when she won the Caulfield Cup. Tough win at Flem in the Makybe Diva when raced early into the head wind, and was the best of the finishers on in the Underwood – and her last bit there was really good. So everything was going to plan – till the Turnbull – and we just need to work out what to make of that run. Was entered for the Caulfield Cup last week – and paid up – and they decided to target this race instead which seems a little unusual. Capable on all ground but probably wants track firmer side of dead. Boss and Williams have both rode her this campaign and prefer to be on others today. She contested most of the feature WFA races over the Autumn and wasn’t too far away, but you just wonder in this class, at WFA if she might just lack of bit of dash to put herself into the race. Outside barrier means she drops back here and think the others might have the edge on her. Hard to know how she is travelling as well after mystery flop last start. Risking. 12-PIERRO is the boom horse who broke his winning streak last start at Caulfield in a shock upset. Still managing to hold onto favouritism here but will be interesting to see if he drifts further coming towards the race. Ultra impressive in first eight wins, making his own luck on the speed and bursting clear for tidy margins. Was hard to tip against him last start, but he did have a much lighter preparation leading into the Caulfield Guineas than most of his rivals, only the 2 runs in and the Bill Stutt was more like a light jog around the block than a hit out. So with being used up early that might have just bought him undone at the end of the race. We were always going to think about taking him on in this race – he does seem more a solidly built sprinter miler, and the 3YOs who win this race are more often more the staying types. So even if he had won last start, but the (13) had finished on hard we probably still would have dropped off him, the fact that he really folded up pretty quickly is a real worry. Drawn well here, will take a nice on pace sit, has spent the last 2 weeks in remedial barrier classes learning to jump out again. We were keen to take on HELMET in this race last year, and he was coming off a blistering Caulfield Guineas win, so find it hard to get enthused to back one that was getting the staggers at the end of that race. Just can’t see how he can beat home the (13) on the last run. Only the 3 runs in, but had the 2 x 1600M runs. Think he will sit handy, but suspect he is going to be found wanting at the end of this race. Hard to knock one with such an impressive record, but you have to worry when Williams turns down the chance to ride this one. Might prove us wrong, but happy to take on. Risking. 3rd W=$4.60 Summary: This is really an extremely even race and there are a stack of different opinions out there. Actually found it quite difficult to try and sort them out this year. The Cox Plate is always a hustle bustle pressure race, and luck in running makes all the difference – and that may be even more important this year with the rail out 3M. We seem to have two different types of Cox Plates, the ones with the dominant WFA stars who invariably win, and the ones that are wide open where often a result can come from left field. They often turn up the pressure a long way from home here and start making runs early. There doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of speed this year though, so just a bit concerned that those planing to drop well back and come home might find that something has already pinched a winning break. A lot of smart milers attempt this race, coming off Toorak or Epsom form, but really think you want a proven WFA 2000M horse in this race. There are two diseases quite prevalent during the Spring Carnival. One is to go chasing money week after week on whatever the new spruik international runner is – even though the ones that normally win are ones we have seen before or had a run here so we can line them up. The other one is to rave about 3YOs in the Cox Plate. So here are the 3YOs that have started over the last 10 years or so: 2011: HELMET 8th 2009: SO YOU THINK 1st, MANHATTAN RAIN 2nd 2008: SAMANTHA MISS 3rd 2006: MISS FINLAND 6th (unlucky) 2005: GOD’S OWN 8th 2004: SAVABEEL 1st 2002: BEL ESPIRIT 8th 2001: VISCOUNT 3rd 2000: SHOW A HEART 10th / FUBU 8th 1999: TESTA ROSSA 4th / REDOUTE’S CHOICE 5th So the 3YOs are often not that far away, but it is not like they have a mortgage on the race and most of them came into this race with pretty good form. In fact when SO YOU THINK won his lead up form was fair at best, and although SAVABEEL had wining form he wasn’t that well fancied and definitely didn’t have the buzz on him that this year’s crop of 3YOs do. There have been plenty of extremely smart sprinter miler 3YOs contest this race – and they just don’t seem to be the type that wins. So more looking for a staying type 3YO. Actually over the last ten years it has actually been more the older horses winning this race, in particular 6YOs. Pace here only seems to be even at best. Lots can race handy but as long as he doesn’t miss the start again the 3-GLASS HARMONIUM should lead with the 10-MORE JOYOUS siting outside him. Racing handy just behind them should be 7-HAPPY TRAILS, 12-PIERRO, 14-PROISIR with 1-SHOOT OUT , 4-GREEN MOON next in running. Just a bit concerned that some of the back makers are going to give these too big a head start today. So going something that won’t drop too far back, that has winning form, that has proven 2000M form, that has a jockey that is a borderline genuine and putting 4-GREEN MOON on top. Hopefully will position midfield or better and will be off and running before some of those out the back get warm. Definitely rate 14-PROISIR as the best chance of the 3YOs, more the staying type of 3YO which is what you want for this race, got the 2000M run going into this and another who can position forward in running. 9-OCEAN PARK the other obvious danger, has 2000M form, just a bit worried about how far back he will drop and that the 4YOs in general haven’t really been wining this race over the last 10 to 15 years. Still have to give chances to 13-ALL TOO HARD, again a matter of how far back he gets in the run and if he gets a clear run at them and although we love to sack her in Melbourne got a sneaky feeling that 10-MORE JOYOUS is going to do something today. Probably go win bets on the top two selections the (4) and (14) as the betting strategy. One to risk: 12-PIERRO 3rd W=$4.30 Roughie: 3-GLASS HARMONIUM The Key: Position in running here – not giving too big a start. RESULTS: Really good fair competitive edition of the Cox Plate with every runner having its chance and a few surprise tactics. The speed and pressure is on so the winner 9-OCEAN PARK can run into the race. Huge run by the runner up 13-ALL TOO HARD who goes forward and there is plenty of pressure up front and still kicks on really well. 8-ETHIOPIA continues to improve rapidly, but you just wonder if the Melbourne Cup is coming up too quickly this year and somehow, somehow, a well beaten and struggling 11-SOUTHERN SPEED on the home turn finds another gear and storms to the line. Really good race. |
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