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| MOONEE VALLEY: COX PLATE - 26th Oct 2013 |
| Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 2M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Plenty of rain and cold weather around midweek and still showers into Friday and Saturday so suspect this track is going to remain genuinely wet and on the worse side of dead. Especially after they race on it Friday night and open it up – any rain on Saturday will affect the track more. Hard to know how the track is going to race with the double header meeting, the first time it happened was last year and the track raced evenly both Friday and Saturday. Might be a different story this year with plenty of rain, though it has to be said they don’t tend to come off the rails at MV like they do on other tracks when they get rain affected. If anything the compounded ground from Friday night hard against the rails might end up being the best going. We are pretty sure when Moonee Valley introduced the double header concept the idea wasn’t to get fields full of double acceptances for Friday night and Saturday. Makes it a bit tricky to line up the final field and the form. Note that again these fields are on the smaller side and there isn’t much speed in some of these races so be on the look out for on pacers. Normally Cox Plate is a extremely dull betting day with small dividends and lots of short priced favourites. Having said that, this year doesn’t seem too bad and all, and we were a bit surprised at the odds on offer about some of our picks today. We have actually managed to find quite a few good priced runners today and there are a few we want to have a serious each way bet on. Betting strategy is to pick a runner at each way odds in each race and have a crack. RESULTS: Track ends up quite firm and a GOOD(3) and races pretty evenly, though it is noticeable that most of the winners either lead, or cut the corner on the turn. Those who try to swoop into the race out wide before the turn go backwards once they enter the straight. Oh yeah - and a maiden won the Cox Plate. Tips struggle, flounder and sink rapidly and the Betting Portfolio doesn't fair much better. BEST BET: Race 10: 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE $10 WIN X This one needs no introduction as has been a headline act all spring. Really hasn’t done much wrong in 4 starts this time in, but just think he has a few things going for him here today. Drawn a nice barrier, will go forward in a race with lots of back markers, and suited by some give in the ground. Can just see him slipping clear and being the first to go for home before the turn, whilst the backmarkers look for runs and suspect he may pinch this race. Happy to back straight out at around $4.50 or so. RESULTS: Really wanted him to jump and sit on speed here, but he was over racing and not happy almost immediately, beaten a long way out and pulled up lame. Extremely lame bet too. BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 8-TWO SUGARS $5 EW X QUINELLA: Race 9: 8-TWO SUGARS, 7-CAMEO x $2 X, 2nd 7-CAMEO W=$7.10 QUINELLA: Race 9: 8-TWO SUGARS # 2,9,10 x $1 = $3 X, 3rd 2-LAKE SENTENTIA W=$3.60 Really keen on this one each way and still gobsmacked at the $15 currently on offer – was expecting more like half those odds. Lots of improvement to come with the 2 runs in, both over 1400M and both have been good. Was getting up on the rails 1st up, and then last start led into a headwind and showed some kick in the straight. Handles all conditions, placed at Group 3 last start, solid 1600M record, but best of all looks the leader here with not much pressure and think she is going to be hard to run down – especially if the on pacers are winning. Back each way and have something on the quinella as pretty sure she is going to be in the finish. Currently $15 on IASBET, and $8 on TAB fixed odds? Really? Seriously? Very keen on this one each way. RESULTS: Ends up taking a sit behind the speed which is a shame as the track was favouring those on speed. Seems to totally lose racing pattern when a few swoop out wide and early and held up for runs before the turn, and finishes off OK. Not sure she would have been in the finish, but should have finished closer. BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 4-WHISPER DOWNS $4 EW X This is one of the more even races of the day, though we have an unknown international runner, but that just means better odds about the rest of the field. This guy is super tough, and in his last preparation ran from Aug 2012 to May 2013, for 18 starts, 7 wins and 6 placings – now that is a nice little money earner. His 1st two runs this time in were excellent, flashing home down the straight 1st up, and running on well into dead ends at Caulfield. Stepped up a lot in distance last start, dropped out the back of the field in a race won by a tear away leader and think you can forgive that run. If he runs up to his form of last campaign and the promise he showed the first few runs this time in he is right in this race at odds of around $15. RESULTS: Oh dear. Drops back from an outside barrier, is set alight 6 wide about 600M from home, looms at the top of the straight, but dies on an extremely long, hard run to not be beaten far at all. Should have won in our opinion. Definitely follow this one next start - this run was excellent and he is super tough. BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 4-LORD OF BRAZIL $3 EW X QUINELLA Race 8: boxed 3,4,10 x $2 = $6 1st 10-TOYDINI W=$3.20, 2nd 3-SPEEDINESS W=$4.90 Quinella = $5.40 x 2 = $10.80 Super honest type, placed 21 from 27 starts and deserves a crack at some of these feature miles. Fitter for the 3 runs in and expect a lot of improvement today, ran on well here 2 starts back, and last start settled far too far back from an outside barrier and was making good ground late. Handles all conditions, placed 8 from 10 over 1600M and 4 from 6 at MV and just hoping they ride him a bit more forward today in a race with not much speed. The $13 each way looks pretty good odds to us and he is rarely far away. Nice rough chance. Back each way and box up a quinella with the other main dangers the favourite the (10) and the very talented (3) who just always seems to get too far back in his races so maybe the small field here will suit. RESULTS: Out the back all the way and never gets into the race - very out of character run for this one. Two favourites fight out the race, the 3-SPEEDINESS looks home but is run down by the 10-TOYDINI. Suspect the winner might be seriously good - still can't believe he ran down the (3) who looked home. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 7: 2-SNEAK A PEEK at around $3.50 LAST $4.00 fav Fitter for the 4 runs in and finally managed to run a place at his 8th Australian start. Obviously has been running in much harder races, this looks much easier and he is running into form, but he is at the top of the weights and just suspect he is going to start extremely short – especially on the tote. Like closer to $2.50 short. May win but think it is always worth considering a few in these tough staying 2500M races and suspect he isn’t going to represent much value considering his form. Happy to risk. RESULTS: Gets a perfect run, looms before the turn but is quickly beaten. Easy lay, but is better than that. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. QUADRELLA: Races 7,8,9,10: 6,9 / 3,4,10 / 7,8 / 3,8,11,14 x $5 = 10.42% 3rd 9-GOTTA TAKE CARE W=$6.50 / 1st 10-TOYDINI W=$3.20 / 2nd 7-CAMEO W=$7.10 / 3rd 3-FIORENTE W=$8.00 Our selections in the quaddie legs have been right around the money for a few weeks now, so we can quickly put a stop to that sort of nonsense – by taking a quaddie ourselves. Narrow it down to the top two picks in the 1st leg the (6) and (9), take the 3 main chances in the 2nd leg the (3),(4) and (10), be a little bit brave in the 3rd leg and just go the two on pacers the (7) and (8) who are both showing over $10 (we know, we know, that is very brave) to kick some value in, and come home on the 4 main chances in the Cox Plate. There is enough value in there to push the dividend over $1000 if we are right – and if not, hey, it is only $5 so who cares. RESULTS: Thereabouts in most legs, but out in the first leg so doesn't really count does it ! SPENT: $50 RETURN: $10.80 NET: $-39.20 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE. EARLY MORNING SLEEP IN. Race 2: 1-VATICAN, 6-EIGHT BILLS, 10-PRUSSIAN POWER Race 3: 7-NEAREST TO PIN, 4-RICHIE’S VIBE, 13-RICH JACK Race 4: 4-WHISPER DOWNS, 10-PHANTOM BREW, 12-FABRIANO Race 5: 1-SAVVY NATURE, 3-TIPS AND BEERS, 4-STORM APPROACH Race 6: 1-VA PENSIERO, 8-NOT LISTENIN’TOME, 7-CONSORTING Race 7: 9-GOTTA TAKE CARE, 6-MOURINHO, 5-PRECEDENCE Race 8: 3-SPEEDINESS, 4-LORD OF BRAZIL, 10-TOYDINI Race 9: 8-TWO SUGARS, 7-CAMEO, 10-LUCKY LAGO Race 10: 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE, 3-FIORENTE, 14-LONG JOHN |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-VATICAN 2nd W=$3.20 6-EIGHT BILLS 10-PRUSSIAN POWER |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-NEAREST TO PIN 2nd W=$10.00 4-RICHIE’S VIBE 13-RICH JACK |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-WHISPER DOWNS 10-PHANTOM BREW 12-FABRIANO |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-SAVVY NATURE 1st W=$1.70 3-TIPS AND BEERS 4-STORM APPROACH |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-VA PENSIERO 8-NOT LISTENIN’TOME 2nd W=$2.20 7-CONSORTING |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-GOTTA TAKE CARE 3rd W=$6.50 6-MOURINHO 5-PRECEDENCE 1st W=$5.90 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-SPEEDINESS 2nd W=$4.90 4-LORD OF BRAZIL 10-TOYDINI 1st W=$3.20 Quinella: $5.40 |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-TWO SUGARS 7-CAMEO 2nd W=$7.10 10-LUCKY LAGO |
| RACE 10: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE 3-FIORENTE 3rd W=$8.00 14-LONG JOHN |
| RACE 10: COX PLATE 2040M GROUP 1 WFA |
| Tips: 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE 3-FIORENTE 3rd W=$8.00 14-LONG JOHN |
| Others: 11,4,1 Pace: EVEN Leaders: 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE, 15-SHAMUS AWARD Handy: 1-GREEN MOON, 5-SIDE GLANCE, 6-SEVILLE, 9-MASKED MARVEL , 10-MULL OF KILLOUGH, 12-SUPER COOL, 14-LONG JOHN Back: 2-HAPPY TRAILS, 3-FIORENTE, 4-FORETELLER, 7-REKINDLED INTEREST, 11-IT'S A DUNDEEL Chances: 3-FIORENTE has been playing jockey roulette this spring and the spinning wheel this week lands on Blake Shinn for the plum Cox Plate ride. Lucky boy. Has been right on the money all spring, 1st up run in the Memsie was badly held up for runs the length of the straight, then whooshed past them impressively here to win the Dato Tan – though has to be said there were quite a few hard luck stories inside him. Excellent run in the Turnbull when just got a little too far back and was coming home at a great speed again. Really has barely missed a beat in Australia since his 1st up, don’t mind if I run 2nd in the Melbourne Cup effort last spring, so pretty hard to knock him. Outside barrier means he probably drops well back again, and guess that might be the only query - whether he gives something too big a start. Might prefer firmer ground? But suits him to be in clear running swooping late around the field and sure to be finishing on well late. Strong chance. 3rd W=$8.00 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE was all the buzz early on in the spring and was wound into silly, silly odds for the Melbourne Cup after his 1st up win which now seems like eons ago in the Liston Stakes. Interesting to see he is out to over $10 now for the Cup – funny about that. All the rage last spring and been waiting a full year to see what he can do – and what he can do has been good – just not mind blowing and earth shattering and record breaking and jaw dropping as it could have been. Lazy dash through the field win 1st up, then not disgraced when just nabbed on the line 2nd up. Strange decision to ride the horse back in the Underwood when nothing made ground and then perfect on speed run in the Turnbull when hit the lead but got run down. Firm track that day might not have suited. Bit of give in the ground definitely suits this one. Never been to MV before, but doubt that will be an issue. Handles it wet, has the class to win this, drawn a good barrier, races forward in a race with not much speed, plenty to like about this one. Note jockey change with regular jockey suspended. Will make his own luck whilst a lot of his main rivals are out the back hoping for luck. Strong chance. 11-IT'S A DUNDEEL has a stack of ability and ended the winning streak of the favourite / late scratching / retired to stud ATLANTIC JEWEL. Very lightly raced with imposing win strike rate. Has put in some breath taking wins – but has also failed to produce a few times when expected. Raced more forward 1st up when just struggled to get off rails and around one into clear running, and then split second decision by jockey last start to go forward against normal pattern made all the difference in claiming the scalp of the undefeated mare. Had a set back since then with foot problems, but back in work and back in the race. Never good to see any sort of set back going into these features though, and just means he is going into this with an less than ideal preparation. When he is right he is slashing, and has an amazing finish. Worth noting he was a beaten $1.30 fav this day last year at his only other try at this track. Has drawn out, so you suspect they will drop him back again, but seeing going forward last start worked would they consider it again? Check riding tactics on the day. Wet track OK but probably better on the firm. Going to be one of many trying to whoosh around the field just before the turn and one or more of them are going to strike trouble. Too good to write off, always a concern about the setback though – watch the betting moves on the day for a guide. Chance. 14-LONG JOHN is one we have a lot of time for and still amazed considering he is a winner of 5 from 7 and yet to miss a place in his career how little spruik there is on him. Especially considering the stable as their runners normally only need to have 4 legs for the punters to start plunging. Barely set a foot wrong all spring, just got too far back in the Guineas Prelude when coming hard on the line and solid effort to win the Guineas when he did go for home a little early, but fought off a solid challenge. There is always such a buzz about 3YOs going into the Cox Plate – yet once again he doesn’t seem to feature that strongly in discussions. We always thought 3YOs going into the Cox Plate are over rated, you need the right sort of 3YO, not a sprinter miler, but a staying type. Actually think this guy might tick that box though. Probably OK on wet ground, suspect he might settle more forward here with no weight and an OK barrier – maybe the jockey may even go for home early again? Solid chance here as long as he remains at respectable odds. Chance. Place: 1-GREEN MOON is the reigning Melbourne Cup winner who has had a few setbacks this spring and missed a run in the Underwood Stakes when scratched so coming into this on quite a light preparation. Only the 2 runs in, ran on quite well 1st up, and then nothing made ground in the Underwood so can disregard that run. Has a classy WFA turn of foot when required so is capable of winning a race like this. Few little queries though – obviously missing a run and having 5 weeks between runs is not ideal, a slow or genuinely wet track may be a little concern and worth noting he did flop in this race last year for no particular reason – when starting favourite and coming off a win in the Turnbull Stakes. Did strike trouble that day which may be an explanation, although you just begin to wonder if maybe he doesn’t go as well at MV. Outside barrier and clear running room a help – not sure where he settles though? Has the class to win this, wouldn’t write him off, just hard to get too keen with worse form than last year and a few setbacks. One of only a few capable of the upset though. Place only. 2-HAPPY TRAILS is one we, and everyone else, seems to keep underestimating. His form over the last 12 months has been first rate, except for his lack lustre Autumn campaign. Last spring he won the Dato Tan and the Emirates Stakes, this year he has won the Turnbull, he keeps notching up wins in top class races – and at decent odds all the time too. We really thought the 2000M was further than he liked, but he threaded through the field last start in the Turnbull to win – and 1st and 3rd in the Caulfield Cup both came through that race so the form is holding up. Plus he gave them all weight there under the set weights conditions of that race – and meets them all on an equal WFA scale here. Run in the Underwood was solid too. Ran in this race last year and didn’t show his best. Even after all that still don’t think 2000M is his best distance, and a track the worse side of dead is probably a bit of an issue here. Been in the news for the wrong reasons with trainer suspended, so going to be an interesting interview if the one week old trainer claims a Cox Plate. Probably settles back inside here from barrier (2) and that looks an issue for us – doubt he will be able to thread his way through the field like he did at Flemington. Prefer place. 2nd W=$11.90 4-FORETELLER is very under rated and one we are a big fan of – just wish they ran him in the Caulfield Cup last week ! Had a ripper Melbourne / Sydney / Brisbane autumn campaign and ran on into the finish of most of his races and even grabbed a few first prize cheques at odds. Form this time in is better than it looks, ran on really well 1st up off furious speed, won 2nd up beating the (8) who he tracked all the way down the straight, actually finished off pretty well in the Underwood where nothing made ground and then worked home well behind the recently retired ATLANTIC JEWEL last start. Had a tough solid preparation which is probably good for this race. Handles all going but probably better on slightly firmer ground. Drawn a nice barrier and would like to see him racing a bit more forward than usual here – not sure dropping back he has the dash and tactical speed around the MV bends. Likes a long clear run at them, just got a niggly query about how he will go around MV, but if they turn up the pressure a long way out he is probably the toughest of them here. Rough chance only. 4th W=$22.60 9-MASKED MARVEL looks an unusual entry for this race, but stable are totally firing this spring and have been pulling the right strings in all the major races. Fitter for the 3 runs in, has been racing in slightly weaker races in Sydney and the form from those races didn’t really hold up last week. Still lightly raced, good win strike rate, threw the race away 2 starts back when he ran off the track. Still in his first preparation in Australia, and might not appreciate tight racing around MV if he has a few quirks. Listen out for the riding tactics for this one – do they ride him forward from a good barrier? Bit hard to line him up, probably worth throwing in as a roughie for the trifectas and would be kinda ironic if jockey Rodd ends up winning the Cox Plate aboard a different horses. Place. 15-SHAMUS AWARD is the other 3YO who has sneaked into the race and raised the eyebrows of some being a maiden going into a Cox Plate, whereas other more well performed horses have been tossed out in previous years. Placed 7 from 9 – but still a maiden. Been going very consistently all spring, really tough effort here in the Stutt Stakes, though guess on pacers were favoured that night and then huge run coming from well back and going around the field in the Caulfield Guineas. Yet to strike a wet track. Assume he is the leader here from the inside barrier and with a light weight he is probably going to kick on OK here. Just hard to see a maiden winning a Cox Plate? Place only. 1st W=$22.60 Sacking: 5-SIDE GLANCE is a prestigious overseas visitor and Moonee Valley have really been struggling to get overseas horses into this race so they must be chuffed. We run the same rule by all the internationals and have for years – if you haven’t seem them run over here and can line them up – don’t back them. No point betting on unknowns. Not sure where this one settles, but barrier 1 around MV in a Cox Plate is a tough ask even for a seasoned local. Just looking at form too he does seem to prefer firmer ground, and hasn’t won past 1700M. Though Craig Williams is never one to be underestimated in these races. Happy to risk. 6-SEVILLE is one we have a bit of time for, and doubt we have seen the best of this one in Australia yet and he has a bit of untapped potential. Was achingly slow to run into form last spring, but when he did he seriously pushed the subsequent Melbourne Cup winner in last year’s Turnbull before being injured. Had a full year off and again this spring really didn’t get warm till he got over some distance and onto the bigger tracks. Settled on speed and stuck on OK in the dawdle that was the Naturalism, and then given gun run and great ride on the speed when cut to the inside to win the Metropolitan. Not sure of the record of horses from that race dropping back to this race ? obviously they normally go into the Cups. Seems to handle all going. Drawn middle but you would think he is going to roll forward here and can’t see much speed in this race. Just dropping back in distance, under the WFA weight scale and around MV not sure is really going to be his cup of tea – not sure he has the tactical speed for a race like this. Passing. 7-REKINDLED INTEREST is one to be honest we can never catch, and realistically his win/place strike rate is starting to look a little ordinary. He does leave his best form for this track though, all of his best runs have been here. Was a frustrating horse to follow as a 3YO, kept running on late for 3rds and 4ths. He had his birthday when he won the Dato Tan here in 2011, and the rest of the field were knocking each other over whilst he got a clear run down the outside. Ran a solid 3rd in this race in 2011, but really didn’t show much last year coming off a similar Dato Tan run – though he had a list of aliments and a medical certificate from a highly reputable doctor so guess you can excuse that run. Coming into this with a very light preparation, just the 2 runs in and 1200M/1600M looks rather light on for a solid, tough WFA 2040M (don’t forget that extra 40M). Wet ground is a real concern for this one. Guess just cause it is at MV you could throw him in and look a big trifecta, but has never been a horse of ours and his form this year is less then previous years – when it wasn’t good enough either. No. 10-MULL OF KILLOUGH is another international visitor and Moonee Valley must be super, doubly chuffed to get two international runners in their WFA championship field. Maybe they can sell them some of the proposed new apartment towers as investments as well whilst they are here? Decent win strike rate, handles it wet and at least has won over the 2000M. Well travelled as well so should handle the trip down under - it is just more the trip on the Cragieburn line to MV that is the question. Hope he remembers to swipe his Myki. Ok, so we don’t really follow the international form and are just padding, but we run by the “if we haven’t seen them don’t back them” rule as always for these ones. Not sure where he settles from barrier (4) ? Passing. 12-SUPER COOL looked like he could be anything as a 3YO when the stepped up to challenge after challenge and kept improving. Has been pretty disappointing this time in though in our books – and no excuses either. Ran on well 1st up in the Liston, then hit a flat spot and didn’t like one racing tight outside him in the Dato Tan here. Held up for a while in the Turnbull, but wasn’t going well enough and really didn’t show much behind the stable mate last start – fair enough she is much better than him, but would have like to see him at least loom or look competitive at some stage, instead he is struggling to keep up most of the straight. Did win on this day last year and would be nice for stable to still win this race with their stable mate. Yet to strike a wet track. Drawn outside, so at least he should avoid trouble today. He can race handy if required – again listen out for tactics – might settle a bit more forward here. Basically have real concerns about how he is going though and prefer to risk him today. No 13-ATLANTIC JEWEL SCRATCHED Summary: Shame that we don’t get to see ATLANTIC JEWEL try and add one of the big three to her trophy cabinet, suspect she would have won and she probably deserved it too. But we are left with a very even and open field here, and tactically this is always a very interesting race and even more so this year with a few international runners, and a few stayers and a few 3YOs who are hard to line up where they are going to settle in the run. This is always a tough, hustle bustle race and making a run at the right time is crucial here, you need to be out into clear room around the 600M and looping into the race. The pace this year just looks even – you would think the 3YO 15-SHAMUS AWARD probably leads from the inside barrier, with the 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE sitting outside him and the 6-SEVILLE, 12-SUPER COOL, 14-LONG JOHN not far away – but hard to know where a few of these are going to settle so check out the riding tactic announcements on the day. We are quite keen on the 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE here, sitting on speed and making his own luck whilst some of the more favoured runners sit out the back and hope and wait for a run. The wet track the real big plus for him as well. The 3-FIORENTE the obvious danger, his finishing burst last few runs has been electric, but needs to get a clear run into the race out wide and there are going to be a few going for that same run. Normally we aren’t that interested in the 3YOs either but happy to consider the 14-LONG JOHN here, form is just as good as those from other years – and the odds are even better ! The 11-IT'S A DUNDEEL the other of the obvious four picks, but find it hard to back him coming off a setback. So nothing out of the ordinary here and one of these four should win, but plenty of variations and combinations for the trifectas and really pretty much anything could pop into the placings here – throw 4-FORETELLER in as the best roughie as his form is better than many of these. One to risk: 12-SUPER COOL 5th W=$15.50 Roughie: 4-FORETELLER 4th W=$22.60 The Key: Clear run into the race from a barrier RESULTS: Boilover as the maiden 3YO with no weight goes to the lead and they can't run him down - very similar to SO YOU THINKs 1st win, except that he won by a margin in a fast time. But it does look like it is hard to run down these lightly weighted 3YOs in this race. Track was favouring on pacers though, and those that loomed wide before the turn were quickly beaten, so the run of the 6-SEVILLE in particular was much better than it looked. 4-FORETELLER very, very honest and running home again and let's hope they give him a shot at the Melbourne Cup. 3-FIORENTE used up early to go forward from a wide barrier and stuck on really well. |
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