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are offering money back if your horse runs 2nd or 3rd or 4th in the Cox Plate! |
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| MOONEE VALLEY: COX PLATE - 25th OCT 2014 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: FINE - Rail: OUT 2M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Barely been a drop of rain all spring and it hasn’t been easy for those who prefer some give in the ground. Maybe Cup Week will be a wash out to even things up? Fine drying weather heading into the weekend again and this track should remain on the firm side, though obviously Moonee Valley has a bit more give an the other tracks. Always wary of how the racing pattern is going to be with the Friday night / Saturday double features. Especially with the feature race being race seventeen, but the few years since they have done the double meeting the track has raced pretty fairly. Generally as long as the rail is not too far out at MV they can run on OK, but with fields on the smaller side suspect you might want to tend toward those racing on speed today. As always with Cox Plate Day, fields are on the smaller side and a few short priced favourites so unlikely to be any big dividends today. However, there are some solid $5 to $10 chances to be backed and betting strategy is probably to back one straight out and put a saver win bet on another as unlikely to be many surprises today. Have done our best to throw a roughie or two into the selections in some of the races. RESULTS: Track races fairly evenly, but most winners still come closer to the rails. Tips struggle to get warm even with the small fields. BEST BET: Race 6: 1-SPEEDINESS $8 WIN 4th W=$2.50 EXACTA: Race 6: 5-TRUST IN A GUST - 1-SPEEDINESS x $2 SCR $2 Going to be a bit controversial here and go away from the super trustworthy and in form favourite in this race 5-TRUST IN A GUST. This one has a nasty habit of running 2nd in feature races and can be slowly away and give the field a bit of a start, but drops back to an easier race here, is better suited under this weight scale and in a small field there should be plenty of room for him to finish on late. Just needs them to set a decent speed up front, and for horses to be able to run on and win today, but he was closing on the (5) on the line last start and should have a fair bit of improvement to come with the 3 runs in. Will be giving the favourite a bit of a start is the only concern, but think he might turn the tables today. Back straight out at around $5 and maybe be a bit of a wuss and save on a exacta in case the favourite gets up and beats us. Think he should win though. RESULTS: Well the favourite gets scratched and we are left with a win bet on our pick who is now a short priced favourite at odds you really wouldn't want to take. He looms up but struggles to get into the finish and think that is the last chance punters are going to give him he is starting to be come quite unreliable. BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 8-CRITERION $6 EW X Pretty keen on our top pick in the Cox Plate, even on a dry track and think with the speed on here he is the one who can make a long sustained run at them, and finish over the top of them late. Set for this race, almost ran down the favourite last start and really liked the way he chased him down to the line. In a very even Cox Plate field with no stand out super star looks a nice each way bet at around $7. RESULTS: Very solid tempo suits, but just doesn't run on as well as expected - suspect he is better suited to a bigger track with some give in it. BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 5-NICOSCENE $4 EW 3rd W=$7.80, P=$2.10 = $8.40 QUINELLA: Race 4: 5-NICOSCENE, 1-PRESSING x $2 5-NICOSCENE 3rd W=$7.80 , X QUINELLA: Race 4: 5-NICOSCENE, 6-GRECO x $2 5-NICOSCENE 3rd W=$7.80 , X We like the way this one is going and really has not done much wrong in 5 career starts to date. 1st up here he chased down hard on a leaders track, and although beaten last start he did loom up out wide in the straight and they weren’t really making ground out that wide. Fitter for the 2 runs in, seems to go pretty well at the Valley and even though he is up into a Group 3 race here, actually reckon the Listed race at Caulfield was a stronger field. Really surprised at the $10 on offer and looks a great each way bet. Look for some extra value with some quinellas with the other main dangers. RESULTS: Gets a perfect run into the race but finds a few better. He is racing well though and will win a race shortly. QUINELLA: Race 7: 6-DUCCIO, 10-ATMOSPHERE x $2 SCR $2, 2nd 10-ATMOSPHERE W=$4.70 QUINELLA: Race 7: 6-DUCCIO, 5-BONDEIGER x $2 SCR $2 QUINELLA: Race 7: 6-DUCCIO, 4-MOONOVERMANHATTAN x $2 SCR $2, 1st 4-MOONOVERMANHATTAN W=$5.90 The Vase is one of the more open races of the day and should be a good betting race. Normally we have a short priced favourite in this race and a small field, but the Melbourne 3YO Derby horses have basically been tripping over themselves all spring so think you want to look at the Sydney form. This one looks the likely leader here in a field where a lot get back, and should give a kick on the turn, just a matter of whether something comes out and runs him down. There should be plenty of value in the quinella with the other main chances the (10), (5) and (4). RESULTS: Unfortunately our top pick got scratched and we had the other horses in the finish so probably would have gone close to a collect here. BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 10-ALBONETTI $2.50 EW X The MV Cup is actually an extremely even race and just about all of these have some chance. This one has been racing well, fitter for the 4 runs in and the 2400M run, and run in the Naturalism was really good when launching late. Will get back and there isn’t a huge amount of speed here, but at the bottom of the weights in this, has solid form, still plenty of upside to come and suspect he might get forgotten in betting and drift out with moves for some of the others, whose form really isn’t that crash hot. Prefer to have something at odds on this one at around $16. RESULTS: Lost rider on the turn, but was unlikely to be in the finish. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 7: 2-CHIVALRY at around $4.80 5th W=$4.20 Pretty sure this one will get well backed and start a clear favourite and he does have ability, but he does tend to drop back, and he needs a big track. He has ended up here with barrier 1, which is not ideal around MV in a race with not that much speed. There are plenty in this field who may improve suddenly and wouldn’t be surprised to see a surprise result here and just not interested in backing him as favourite today. RESULTS: Settles more forward than usual and goes to run into the race but dies on his run. Seems to be a bit suspect at the longer trips. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. TRIFECTA: Race 8: 2, 8 / 2,3,6,8,13 / 2,3,4,5,6,8,13 x $5 = 12.50% 2nd 2-FAWKNER W=$4.30 / X / X In an even Cox Plate there should be plenty of value in the trifecta. Really think there are only two winning chances, the 8-CRITERION, 2-FAWKNER, there are some great value place chances like the 3-SIDE GLANCE and 13-SWEYNESSE for 2nd, and put the old tough WFA horses into the finish like the 4-HAPPY TRAILS, 5-FORETELLER. If a few roughies pop into the finish the dividend should blow out nicely for your massive $5 outlay. RESULTS: Not too far off here, with 2-FAWKNER looking the winner at the top of the straight and 3-SIDE GLANCE 4th W=$23.70 sticking on well but totally miss the winner. SPENT: $50 RETURN: $16.40 NET: $-33.60 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO. NO BET THANKS. Race 2: 7-LET’S ROCK ‘N’ROLL, 1-ROCKY KING, 9-EIGHT BILLS Race 3: 1-LUMOSTY, 8-KANSAS SUNFLOWER, 3-TAHNI DANCER Race 4: 5-NICOSCENE, 1-PRESSING, 6-GRECO Race 5: 9-EPINGLE, 1-PRECENDENCE, 10-ALBONETTI Race 6: 1-SPEEDINESS, 5-TRUST IN A GUST, 2-HAVANA REY Race 7: 6-DUCCIO, 10-ATMOSPHERE, 5-BONDEIGER Race 8: 8-CRITERION, 2-FAWKNER, 6-THE CLEANER Race 9: 4-SUAVITO, 10-PRECIOUS GEM, 5-RECKLESS ASSASSIN |
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| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-LET’S ROCK ‘N’ROLL 1-ROCKY KING 9-EIGHT BILLS 1st W=$16.00 *** Nice value winner in the selections *** |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-LUMOSTY 1st W=$1.60 8-KANSAS SUNFLOWER 3-TAHNI DANCER 2nd W=$4.50 Quinella: $2.80 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-NICOSCENE 3rd W=$7.80 1-PRESSING 6-GRECO |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-EPINGLE 1-PRECENDENCE 10-ALBONETTI |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-SPEEDINESS 5-TRUST IN A GUST SCR 2-HAVANA REY |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-DUCCIO SCR 10-ATMOSPHERE 2nd W=$4.70 5-BONDEIGER |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-CRITERION 2-FAWKNER 2nd W=$4.30 6-THE CLEANER |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-SUAVITO 1st W=$2.60 10-PRECIOUS GEM 2nd W=$10.80 5-RECKLESS ASSASSIN Quinella: $13.60 |
| RACE 8: COX PLATE 2040 M GROUP 1 WFA |
| Tips: 8-CRITERION 2-FAWKNER 2nd W=$4.30 6-THE CLEANER |
| Others: 3,13 Pace: FAST Leaders: 3-SIDE GLANCE (GB), 6-THE CLEANER Handy: 2-FAWKNER, 7-GUEST OF HONOUR(IR), 9-SILENT ACHIEVER, 11-ADELAIDE (IRE), 12-ALMALAD Back: 1-SACRED FALLS, 4-HAPPY TRAILS, 5-FORETELLER, 8-CRITERION, 10-ROYAL DESCENT, 13-SWEYNESSE, 14-WANDJINA Chances: 2-FAWKNER would just about have to be the best horse in Australia at the moment, and he manages to hold his form really well without a lot of racing. Amazing how he has gone from handicap miler to feature race WFA horse and Caulfield Cup winner. So why not go for the Cox Plate this year as well? Dry track form is excellent and really he should have even more improvement to come with just the two runs this time in, where he was right in the finish both starts. Beat most of these last start at Caulfield under the same conditions, and realistically he probably has the most improvement to come out of all of them as well. Drawn well and he has raced handy last two starts so they can take up a perfect position just behind the front runners here and not let them get too much of a head start. Hard to knock his form and he actually seems to keep improving, run in the Melbourne Cup last year was huge coming from last on the turn. He is right in this race. Strong chance. 2nd W=$4.30 3-SIDE GLANCE (GB) seems to be rather under rated and flying under the radar. Ran 6th in this race last year, before leading all the way to win the Mackinnon, because apparently no-one bothered to tell all the Australian jockeys that the leader normally wins that race. Since then he has been to Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai, England, USA, he has covered more ground than most self funded retirees. Wasn’t far off them either in his wordly travels, and collected some great Facebook check-ins, but didn’t manage to rack up a win. Really good run in the Caulfield Stakes, the track was favouring on pacers, but he did give a bit of a kick. Worth noting he improved dramatically off his first run here last year. Has been competitive against most of these last start, will go forward here, and Cox Plates are often won by on pacers and those missing the trouble behind. Maybe just a matter of whether they contest the lead against the (6) or not? Listen for racing tactics. Funny his 2000M record actually isn’t that great – the Mackinnon win is his only win over this trip. If he should get a soft lead up front think he is right in this, and regardless think he is the best roughie here. Rough. 4th W=$23.70 6-THE CLEANER needs no introduction and has been the subject of daily media interest with so many angles to cover, Tasmanian, battler, front runner, but best of all – he is a winner. 4 wins from 6 starts this track – and yet to miss a place. Has won his last 4 starts here. Won the Dato Tan here, but this is tougher and guess the query with him is at the top level WFA here. Drawn out and may need to work early to go forward? Question will be if they go to a clear lead, or if the (3) pushes up inside them? Listen for riding tactics. Looks like most tipsters have dropped off him and guess that is fair enough in a top notch field, but he is a fit, in form track specialist and just keeps winning. If you want to back him do it with a bookie, suspect he will start well under the odds on the tote with the public interest. Would be a great story if he wins, and even if you don’t back him you will probably be barracking for him. Chance. 8-CRITERION is a 4YO who has been aimed at this race and seems to be running into form at the right time. Stable made decision to target this race, but would have loved to have backed him in the Caulfield Cup last week and think he would have gone close to winning. Solid staying, strong finishing type who is going to be suited by the fast tempo here and he will run out a strong 2000M. He also seems the type who can make a long sustained run at them if need be. Only just missed in the Caulfield Stakes in a race where the on pacers fought out the finish, and really liked the way he hit the line late there against the (2), he would have won the race in a few more strides and his acceleration over the last 50M was amazing. Likely to drop back here today, but just wants to get into clear running room and start winding them in. The early he gets out, the sooner he can run them down. Best form is on tracks with some give in them, so dry track here is against. Just think he is the best of the runners coming through the Caulfield Stakes, he will run a strong 2000M, be suited by the strong speed and looks a really strong chance here. Go well. 13-SWEYNESSE is probably the best of the 3YOs, and although 3YOs can win this race, normally it is the staying type 3YO you want, not the sprinter milers (last year’s result being an exception). So he looks like the sort of 3YO you want to back in this race. No weight, strong finishing type, who will be suited by the speed here. Although drawn out, it does mean he will drop back and get a clear run at them. Looks a real staying type and suited in this sort of race. Rough chance. Place: 1-SACRED FALLS is a well performed Sydney sider who has been set for this race. Best known as a feature miler, with his two Doncaster Handicap wins. Been racing in peak form this time in, and has been right in the finish at every run. Run in the Caulfield Stakes was excellent when he dropped out to last and was finishing hard to the line, and the track was favouring on pacers that day. Drawn a middle barrier and likely to settle back here today. Question mark with him is going to be the 2000M. He ran on well last start over 2000M, but there was a well beaten 2nd in the Rosehill Guineas, and a narrow 2nd in the Queen Elizabeth in Sydney. He hasn’t won past 1600M. You don’t need to run a strong 2000M to win this race, but think this year, with a solid speed up on front, it will find out those who don’t run a strong trip. Think that puts a question mark over him and place best. Place. 4-HAPPY TRAILS was unlucky not to win this race last year when he was coming hard at the finish and only missed by a fraction of a nostril. He is super consistent when he finds form and is often under rated. Form this time in has been pretty good, he always takes a few runs to run into form, and showed in the Underwood that he was ready to win. No luck at all in the Turnbull when ran into dead ends a long way from home and the race was all over. Just an even effort in the Caulfield Stakes, but those sitting out wide that day didn’t make much ground and don’t think you can write him off based on that run. Strong finishing type who should be suited by the fast speed here, but another who really 2000M is as far as he wants and if they really run along he is one we could imagine struggling to keep up. Dry track is a big plus. His chances will really depend on tempo, a sit and sprint race he has the turn of foot to win, speed is good and he does like to run on, but just a helter skelter 2000M get the feeling he might get out of his rhythm chasing. Can never write him off though. Rough only. 5-FORETELLER is a tough old campaigner who keeps popping into finishes at long odds and winning when unexpected. Think he is rather under rated. Firm track a big plus. He has run in and contested pretty much every feature race in the country. Excellent run in this race last year when he chased hard in a leader dominated raced and was closing really well to finish 4th. He does tend to drop a bit too far back in his races and run on late, and hence not win as often as he should. His form this time in has actually probably been better than last year too, flashed home late 1st up, given no chance 2nd up here when jockey dropped him back to last with a tear away leader but was flying home late, and ridden a bit more forward no surprise to see him win in the Underwood. Caulfield Stakes run was pretty disappointing against these, but always forgive them one bad run. He is one who is going to like a super fast tempo up front, and he can make a long sustained run at them. Runs out a strong 2000M too, as opposed to many of these who do not. Barrier 1 is a bit of an issue, he needs to be outside horses and in clear running, and especially around MV that is a bit of a concern. But 4th in this race last year, going better this year, suited by the tempo he is a solid rough chance in this. Rough. 10-ROYAL DESCENT is a tough, consistent Sydney sider whose best form is on wet tracks. Been racing really well in Sydney, just finding one better every start. Only had the two starts in Melbourne and whilst she was not disgraced she didn’t really show her best form. Has settled closer to the speed in recent Sydney runs in small fields, but normal racing pattern is to drop back and drawn inside in a Cox Plate with lots of tired horses stopping in front of her she might have a few issues getting going here. Can’t really knock form, and speed on here should suit, but prefer place. Place. Sacking: 7-GUEST OF HONOUR(IR) is an international taking an unusual road into this race through the Toorak Handicap. Didn’t do that much in that race and worth noting he didn’t get that much in the way of betting support either. Can settle close to the speed and the fast pace here might suit, and you would think he is going to grind away to the line pretty well. Might be the one left to reel in the leaders though and be left a sitting shot for something coming from behind. Hard to line up on form and hard to push with any confidence off one Australian start so prefer to risk. No 9-SILENT ACHIEVER seems to have fallen out of favour with punters after failing to really show her best form in the Melbourne spring. Tip top form during the Sydney autumn, but her Melbourne spring form is now starting to look rather ordinary – 7 starts in the last 2 years and has not even run a place. Sure she has been unlucky a few times and held up for runs once or twice, but she seems to just keep on teasing and run on for 4th for 5th. Guess her only Melbourne win was here at MV though. Fitter for the 3 runs in, she is good enough to win this if she shows her best and will run out a strong 2000M. Form isn’t hopeless, just hard to back her with any confidence. Probably sits handy here and in clear running from an outside barrier so should have every chance, and who knows today could be the day she shows her best form in Melbourne. But not ready to take that risk. Passing. 3rd W=$19.10 11-ADELAIDE (IRE) is very lightly raced international visitor, but really the international horses have had close to no impact in this race so far. In general we prefer to see the international runners have a run down under before getting on regardless, with maybe an obvious exception being the Japanese runners who just seem to have the X factor. Well travelled horse for a 4YO, already been to the USA, France and Ireland. Drawn out here probably not a huge issue and he does look like he will be rolling up just behind the speed and give you every chance if you are on him. It is great that they now name overseas horses after Australian capital cities, hopefully next year they will branch out into the outer suburbs and we can welcome international raiders like Cranbourne and Narre Warren. Watch the betting, not into betting on unknowns though so happy to leave out. No 1st W=$8.20 12-ALMALAD is one of three 3YOs entered into the race this year, and fair enough a maiden 3YO won the race last year, but that doesn’t mean to win this race you just need to be 3YO – you need to have some form too! Won the Bill Stutt Stakes here and guess that is the same race SHAMUS AWARD came through last year if you want to push his case. That was a super messy race though and the form from that race really hasn’t held up. Went forward and got caught up in speed battle in the Caulfield Guineas and gave up pretty quickly. Stable keen to push onto Cox Plate, but really form is not good enough. Nice draw and will go forward here, and maybe if there was no speed here you could see him sticking on OK, but in a race with two dead set leaders think he is going to struggle against these. More of sprinter miler 3YO than a stayer, and you need staying 3YOs in this race. No 14-WANDJINA is a 3YO who has been mixing his form badly and is really hard to follow. Ran on well in Guineas Prelude ridden cold, dropped out and did nothing at Flemington and then hit the line well in the Caulfield Guineas. Does seem better ridden dropping back which is strange as stable normally likes them up and on the speed. He does look more a sprinter miler type and doubt the strong 2000M here is going to suit. Happy to risk. No. Summary: Really a less than impressive field for the WFA Championship of Australia this year and strange that after years of all this talk about quality fields and only allowing the best horses into the race, there seems to be an open door policy now if you are a 3YO (as long as you can show suitable ID). Luck is important in a Cox Plate and there is definitely no disadvantage to be up on the speed or leading and missing all the trouble back in the field. There is always a lot of talk about 3YOs in this race, and fair enough a maiden won this race last year, but in general the 3YOs that go well are those who are more genuine staying types and not the sprinter milers, plenty have tried and failed, and the record of 3YOs overall isn’t as good as many people think. The 13-SWEYNESSE is the only one of the 3YOs that we give some chance too here. Cox Plate is often for tough horses, the pressure goes on a long way out and older tough horses can win this race and there are plenty of options in that category this year. This year is particularly interesting with the likely fast speed with the 6-THE CLEANER and 3-SIDE GLANCE (GB) bowling along in front. Think that means you want one that can make a long sustained run at them and won’t get out of sorts having to chase hard for a long distance. The other interesting thing is that we actually got a really good field for the Caulfield Stakes this year, normally there is a field of five with a short priced favourite, but it was pretty much a Cox Plate Preview this year with numbers (1),(2),(3),(4),(5), (8) and (9) all coming through that race. That means 7 of the 14 runners here all came through the same race last start so really it might just be a matter of lining up the form from there and you have the winner. Which is what we are going to do. Really keen on the 8-CRITERION here, despite the firm track. Was launching late last start and only just missed, the fast speed here is going to suit and he can make a long sustained run at them. Clear top pick. 2-FAWKNER is pretty much the best horse in the country and should be able to sit close enough to the leaders to get into the race at the right time and plenty of improvement to come with the 2 runs this time in. 6-THE CLEANER goes in just because he represents a different form line to the Caulfield Stakes, and you can never go wrong leading in the Cox Plate. 3-SIDE GLANCE by far the best roughie and looks over the odds based on his last run, but will depend on whether the leaders knock each other out. 13-SWEYNESSE the 3YO with some chance. But really think one of the top two picks win and can probably just back both of them straight out. One to risk: 1-SACRED FALLS 11th W=$9.10 Roughie: 3-SIDE GLANCE 4th W=$23.70 The Key: Fast speed – who can handle it? RESULTS: Super fast speed, but astounding effort by the winner 11-ADELAIDE to make a long sustained run from the back of the field, and widest and still out stay them all to the line. 2-FAWKNER as genuine and honest as always, 3-SIDE GLANCE stuck on well at odds and poor old 5-FORETELLER would have gone pretty close in a bunched finished if the gap hadn't closed on him. |
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