|MOONEE VALLEY: COX PLATE - 22nd OCT 2016|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Finally the day is upon us with the big, big clash of HAPPY TRAILS vs HAPPY CLAPPER in the Cox Plate! Seriously though the Cox Plate should be a great race and we have been short a headline horse for a few years now.
There is a fair bit of rain forecast for Friday and then showers for Saturday so except this track to drop well into the SOFT category, and probably even the worse side of SOFT. Current reading Friday morning is a GOOD(4) as above, but doing the form for a SOFT(6) and maybe even a SOFT(7). Remember that at this meeting last year there was a strong leaders’ bias, however that was on a warm sunny day so with the rain coming you would think the track would play fairly and probably even favour those running on late as it normally does with rail TRUE at MV. Expect the track to cut up later in the day and favour those running on out wide, coming off a 18 race weekend.
In the feature race it really does seem to be a match race and it not often we get two horses in such dominant form going to head to head, so it should be quite a spectacle. We are firmly in the 3-HARTNELL camp, and just can’t go past a super impressive Turnbull Stakes winner beating a subsequent super impressive Caulfield Cup winner – those are the two best wins in those two races for some time. The forecast rain will probably assist his chances and just like that he will be up on the speed and daring 8-WINX to run him down. Although 3-HARTNELL was well beaten in this race last year, note he did get shuffled back on the turn and got cluttered up between runners and still hit the line quite well and a smaller field this year will also assist. He may also be better at Flemington, but again the small field and rolling on the speed should counter act that. Champion mare 8-WINX the obvious danger, just slightly wary of a few minor setbacks and soft runs this time in. The roughie, and the genuine rough chance here is the 9-LUCIA VALENTINA, who has the class to win this, will get the rain to suit and will sit off them and get the last crack at them which is often the way to win at MV. She was really good late at Caulfield and seems to be the forgotten horse in this field and is right in the mix here.
The Cox Plate program can often feature a lot of short priced favourites and skinny dividends, but there are actually some quite open races in the first half of the program (so keep it small), and some simple solid each way bets in the 2nd half.
BEST WIN: Race 8: 4-EXCESS KNOWLEDGE $8 WIN
Proven quality stayer who always takes 3-4 runs in each time to find peak form. Was fair in first two runs this time in with big weights and then loomed and ran on well last start at Flemington. Much fitter for that run over the 2500M and well suited under this set weight scale when he has been giving a lot of weight to other horses in his previous runs. Probably would want the track to stay in the GOOD range, but should box seat here and just looks ready to win. Back straight out at around $3.80.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 7-FEDERAL $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 7: 7-FEDERAL, 5-ROYAL RAPTURE x $2 = 200%
QUINELLA: Race 7: 7-FEDERAL, 2-STRATUM STAR x $2 = 200%
Sydney visitor with a very solid win/place strike rate and he was really good flashing home late at Flemington. Very well weighted against the (8) from that race too. Fitter for the 3 runs in and looks ready to win. First time out to 1600M but doesn’t look like that will be an issue. There is a distinct lack of speed in this race though so would want jockey to land him mid field or better. Back each way at around $6, and take the quinella with the two on pacers the super consistent 5-ROYAL RAPTURE, who should appreciate getting back onto a track with some give in it and the reliable 2-STRATUM STAR who looks ready to strike form again.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 10: 6-SO SI BON $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 10: 6-SO SI BON, 5-SILVERA x $2 = 200%
QUINELLA: Race 10: 6-SO SI BON#1,4 x $2 = 100%
This one was super unlucky in the Caulfield Guineas and was finishing full of running when got held up for runs, and his run in the Guineas Prelude was similar. Just looks like the wants the 2000M here and he should be suited with some rain, and if the track is cutting up and favouring those running on. Just ticks so many boxes and looks a really confident each way bet here to end the day at around $6.50. Back each way and again go the quinella and the main danger may actually be the rapidly improving Adelaide visitor the 5-SILVERA, from the favourite the 1-PRIZED ICON and the leader the 4-MORVADA. Very keen on this one in the last race.
BEST PLACE: Race 9: 9-LUCIA VALENTINA $1 WIN $4 PLACE
She seems to be the forgotten horse of the Cox Plate, but has a lot in her favour today. Proven at this level, fitter for the 2 runs in and just got too far back and gave them too big a start at Caulfield but flew home. Rain is a massive bonus and often it is a plus to have the last crack at them in the Cox Plate swooping down the outside. Racing pattern and track should suit her perfectly. Looks a solid place bet at around W=$21, P=$3.60, but shop around and you might get quite generous place odds. Think she is the genuine only boilover chance here and should be in the finish.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 10-DULVERTON $2 EW
We tipped this one last start and happy to give her another chance. Back to MV where she has run well before, and the give in the ground is a big bonus and the firm track was the main concern last start when she wasn’t beaten far and fought the finish out well. Drawn a nice middle barrier with plenty of room and would want them to be winning running on. Each way at around $21.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 7-OUTBACK RAIN $2 EW
This race looks wide open with a lot of horses who have ability coming off excusable runs, so pretty much anything could happen and wouldn’t be surprised to see a value winner pop up. This one has been competitive in town last 2 starts and should be fitter for the 2 runs in. Drawn out, but hopefully they will ride her about midfield and out in plenty of room in a race with not much speed, and suspect she is going to run a lot better than her odds suggest. Have something each way at around $26, and might get much better odds come race time too.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2:1-FELINES at around $5.00
We do have a very nasty habit of making a Sydney horse the Lay of the Day which we need to get over, but quite a few short priced Sydney horses went down last weekend and they do often tend to start under the odds. These 955M races are always a bit of a raffle, but top weight, barrier 1 and not leading in a race with a lot of speed often spells trouble so happy to risk today.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
RUNNING DOUBLE: Races 6,7: 3,6,7,11,12 / 5,7 x $5 = 50%
As we have mentioned, Race 6 is a super tricky race with a stack of horses who have ability coming off poor runs with excuses like the 6-STOP MAKING SENSE and the 11-CLASSIC DIVA. We have tipped the roughie 7-OUTBACK RAIN, but also watch out for the roughie on pacer 12-KHASEEB at odds who may be one on the way up. Going wide in the first leg and try and find a value winner (and leaving out the favourite 1-I AM A STAR, mainly because the double won’t pay anything worthwhile anyway), and take the top two picks the 7-FEDERAL, 5-ROYAL RAPTURE in Race 7.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO. NO BET.
Race 2: 5-BULLPIT, 10-O’MALLEY, 4-GRANE
Race 3: 9-BRULEE, 13-OVERSTEP, 8-GRETNA
Race 4: 2-ARCHIVES, 3-DALRADIAN, 6-PALLADIAN
Race 5: 5-METAPHORICAL, 10-DULVERTON, 2-ROCKET COMMANDER
Race 6: 7-OUTBACK RAIN, 3-SEZANNE, 1-I AM A STAR
Race 7: 7-FEDERAL, 5-ROYAL RAPTURE, 2-STRATUM STAR
Race 8: 4-EXCESS KNOWLEDGE, 6-MASTER ZEPHYR, 1-GALLANTE
Race 9: 3-HARTNELL, 8-WINX, 9-LUCIA VALENTINA
Race 10: 6-SO SI BON, 5-SILVERA, 1-PRIZED ICON