|MOONEE VALLEY: COX PLATE - 27th OCT 2018|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: LIGHT RAIN - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
We have only light showers heading into the weekend with cloudy days and just a little rain forecast for both Friday night and Saturday. The track should probably dry out though regardless and may be upgraded. With the short turn around time between the Friday night and Saturday meetings, there really is no time to modify the rail or track, so really whatever pattern there is on the Friday night will remain for the Saturday. Looking over the last few years, this has generally meant a racing pattern favouring those on speed (even though this isn’t the normal pattern for rail TRUE).
In the feature Cox Plate, well obviously it is all about the 6-WINX as she goes for 29 wins straight. She actually seems to be better when she gets to Melbourne, either because she goes better this way of going, or because she is further into her preparation and over more suitable trips. In terms of her rivals the question is really whether the international Godolphin Blue can snare a feature race for the third week in a row and they do seem to be finally having a break out spring after many, many years of trying. There has been an interesting change in tactics in riding the international horses, with quite a few horses being ridden aggressively for home around 600M out and it seems to be working.
Really there is next to no speed here at all, with the 1-BENBATI the only leader and really unlikely to get any pressure up front. Expecting the 3-KINGS WILL DREAM to settle a lot more forward today though, especially with the blinkers on for the first time and then its really up to where the other international 7-ROSTROPOVICH, and the NZer 8-SAVVY COUP settle in as the rest of the field are definite back markers. The only danger really seems to be a soft lead for 1-BENBATI, on a track favouring on pacers, with the jockey on 6-WINX getting the number of laps wrong, and the strapper accidentally tying the horse’s shoelaces together, and the horse being a bit off after eating some dodgy take away the night before. Ask the bookies for a quote on this and see what odds they offer.
So obviously we need to put the 6-WINX on top. The main “danger” though, and the value runner in this field is definitely the 3-KINGS WILL DREAM. We quite like backing horses in the Cox Plate coming off a Caulfield Cup run (2-HUMIDOR last year was a perfect example of this), they often start well over the odds and are strong at the end of a pressure 2000M backing up within a week.. 3-KINGS WILL DREAM just ended up in the wrong spot last week, assuming the laceration was minor if they are backing up here, and he still worked home well in a race where he had no chance from the position he was in. Think he will run a huge race today and one to back in the favourite out markets if you spot one. Really considering the margin in the Turnbull Stakes there is a huge price difference between the favourite and the (3). The 1-BENBATI leading for third, and the 2-HUMIDOR as the only other horse of interest, whose form isn’t that different from last year, but think he probably had his chance to beat her last year. In terms of betting strategy, the exotics in these races can often pay more than expected and we will be anchoring 6-WINX to beat 3-KINGS WILL DREAM and take the rest from there.
We have actually ended up with decent sized fields for Cox Plate Day, often there are small fields and short priced favourites and really not much of interest, but the fields are come up quite well this year. It has been a favourites spring so far, so we are going to be a lot more conservative with the tips this week and really most of those well in the market should be fighting out most of these races.
BEST WIN: Race 5: 3-SPIN $5 WIN
BEST WIN: Race 5: 10-BIG NIGHT OUT $5 WIN
This looks like a pretty open betting race, but keen to back these two runners to win. The (3) was really good down the straight 2 starts back and then struck a heavy track up in Sydney. He has been racing in much harder races than this and is drawn to get a perfect run. The (10) looks a solid danger, he has only had the 3 starts, won his first start, then ran into an absolute dead end 2nd up, and then loomed nicely last start against some good horses, but wasn’t quite good enough. Blinkers go on here could mean a big improvement, and although he drops back he is drawn to swoop over them. Back both straight out at round $5 and $11 in an open betting race.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 5-DESERT LASHES $5 EW
These 955M races can be really tricky as basically it just comes down to who has the luck of getting a run at the right time. Often they really burn along in these races, but not sure the speed in today’s race is that great, just the (5), (8) and (10) who all aren’t that super quick, with the (3) sitting wide off them. This one sensationally won her first 5 races and then was still competitive when tried in harder grades. Fitter for the 2 runs in, and really should lead or share the lead here and think she is going to be hard to run down. Change of stable is interesting and watch the market, would be extra confident if a betting move came as well. Each way at around $7.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 8-THOUSAND WISHES $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 8-THOUSAND WISHES#3,4,5 x $3 = 100%
We should be able to line all these up easily, as pretty much the entire field comes just out of two lead up races. We are particularly keen on the (8) though, who is the likely leader in this race with not much pressure up front. She actually missed a run when SCR at the barrier here in late September, which doesn’t show in the form guides, so she was one run short going into the Edward Manifold. She led and kicked well that day and wasn’t beaten very far, and expect she will have a lot of improvement to come off that, having missed a run and been sharply up in distance. Would have preferred a local jockey on board, but hopefully the overseas jockeys knows to just jump to the front here and she should give you a pretty good run for your money at around $15. Back each way and anchor in a quinella with the very consistent 4-KRONE who is building up to a win, the 3-MYSTIC JOURNEY who was impressive running away from the them last start and the consistent 5-ANJANA.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 8-SNOGGING $2 WIN, $3 PLACE
Small field and really the short priced favourite the 2-SAVATIANO is going to be very hard to beat coming off a slashing unlucky run last start at Flemington. This one is a nice value runner though, more the place, or for trifectas and first fours. There doesn’t look to be much speed in this, and hoping they ride a bit more positive from a good barrier. Made good ground 1st up when carrying weight, has won in town before, hasn’t had the best of luck a few times and form is probably better than it looks on paper. Most importantly, in a slowly run race should be able to sit midfield and loop into the race at the right time, with a couple of the more favoured runners being backmarkers drawn inside. Have a little dabble each way at around $41and not sure she deserves to be the rank outsider of this field.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 14-VENTURA STORM $2 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 6,7,10,14 boxed x $3 = 50%
This is a very hard to catch Hayes horse so we are beginning to wonder how genuine he is, but really the run in the Turnbull was excellent and then he ended up well back and found an awful lot of traffic / dead ends in the Caulfield Cup (go back and watch the video). Good barrier and should be able to position handy here and give himself every chance. Have a little something each way at around $15, and the quinella should pay well in a big even field, with the dash to the front when you least expect it 6-THE TAJ MAHAL, the improving with 2 runs in 7-LORD FANDANGO and last years runner up 10-LIBRAN.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 7-INVINCIBLE AL at around $5.50
These 955M races are lotteries as we have already mentioned, and whilst this guy is a good back marker sprinter with a good 1000M record really prefer him on bigger tracks and down the straight. Around MV is asking for trouble, especially if the racing pattern if favouring on pacers, and not sure they are going to go quickly enough in this for him. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
FIRST FOUR: Race 9: 6-WINX / 3-KINGS WILL DREAM / 1,2,4,7,8 / 1,2,4,7,8 x $5 = 25%
We tried this bet last year and snared it with 2-HUMIDOR, but this year we want to switch to the Caulfield Cup runner again in the 3-KINGS WILL DREAM who we think is the only possible danger in this race. Last year the First Four paid a very surprising $140 in a field of only 8 so let’s try and do it again this year.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE. NO BET.
Race 2: 5-DESERT LASHES, 3-ASHLOR, 8-NASDEX
Race 3: 2-SAVATIANO, 3-MRS GARDENIA, 8-SNOGGING
Race 4: 1-SPANISH WHISPER, 6-CAUSEWAY GIRL, 2-ASSERTIVE PLAY
Race 5: 3-SPIN, 10-BIG NIGHT OUT, 8-MORE THAN EXCEED
Race 6: 8-THOUSAND WISHES, 4-KRONE, 3-MYSTIC JOURNEY
Race 7: 8-CLIFF’S EDGE, 7-SIR JOHN LAVERY, 9-SEIGE OF QUEBEC
Race 8: 14-VENTURA STORM, 6-THE TAJ MAHAL, 7-LORD FANDANGO
Race 9: 6-WINX, 3-KINGS WILL DREAM, 1-BENBATL
Race 10: 13-VERRY ELLEEGANT, 7-REAL SUCCESS, 12-SAVVY OAK