|MOONEE VALLEY: COX PLATE - 22nd October 2022|
|Track: GOOD (4) - Weather: RAIN - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
We have considerable rain forecast for Friday night and again on Saturday so expecting to end up with a genuine wet track and probably worse side of SOFT and it could be pretty tough slogging conditions by the end of the day. Especially after 18 races across Friday night and Saturday. We had similar conditions here last year when it was very difficult to lead and it was all about finding the right lane in running so we might end up with the same again. Never a huge amount of value around on Cox Plate Day and might be some skinny dividends but at least there are one or two quite open races.
Cox Plate Preview
The Cox Plate is often a highly tactical race, they can put the pressure on and go early before the turn and good chance on a rain affected track we will be well off the rails by the time this race comes, so may be a matter of who gets to the best ground first. Speed seems to be mainly 3-ALLIGATOR BLOOD (lame vet concerns?) and 1-ZAAKI as it has been in the lead-up races, with maybe the 9-MAXIMAL, 11-PROFONDO sitting behind them. Suspect we will want to be on whoever is looping into the race out wide on the turn here.
Runner by runner comments
1-ZAAKI just doesnít seem to have the pizazz that surrounded him last season, he has still been racing extremely well, but he just isnít as dominant, though hardly getting beaten by large margins. Likely set for this race, fitter for the three runs in and probably set to peak today. Placed 8/9 over the 2000M and probably more adaptable to some rain and give in the ground than many of his rivals. He looked to have the (3) well and truly covered on the home turn last start at Caulfield, and the race was his to win, but he seemed to have to really work to get past that one. He is better when he can control the speed and it does seem having 3-ALLIGATOR BLOOD does seem to throw his racing pattern a bit. Inside barrier on-speed may not be the place by this race. Winning chance as he is a top-level WFA performer, but do have some doubts.
2-IíM THUNDERSTRUCK is a strong finishing miler who looked a query at the distance after the Sandown run, but was right in the finish at Caulfield. Wet track will be no issue, and he will be one sitting back off them finishing on strongly late which may be the pattern. He did settle a lot handier last start and really ground to the line, think if he gives them too much of a start over 2000M he will struggle to catch them. Odds of $11 is pretty good though for a horse of his ability, so maybe a saver if the race gets run to suit.
3-ALLIGATOR BLOOD seems to be able to keep defying expectations and he is very hard to get past once he gets rolling on the speed which is likely to happen again today. Slight difference this time is that he has drawn well outside the (1), so will be interesting to see how hard they go early and if they try and cross or not. Fought on really well last start and made the (1) work for it before just fading late. Track worse side of soft is an issue for this one, and the 2000M is probably a query seeing how he faded late last start. On a dry track leading without pressure he could quite easily pinch this, hard to see the conditions being in his favour today.
4-MR BRIGHTSIDE had been zooming through his races on a winning streak, but seems to have hit a ceiling now he has got to the top level WFA races. Dominant winner in a small field here three starts back, but has been well held by several of these last two starts so hard to see him turning the tables on all of them. Wet track no issue, jury still out on a strong 2000M, best chance is probably a quiet ride out the back here and hope for the right run into the race. Place chance.
5-MOíUNGA is a solid dry track run-on miler, who ran above expectations in the Underwood before being just fair in the Caulfield Stakes. These feature mile sort of horses often contest this race but donít often succeed. Wet track is definitely against him and the 2000M may be an issue, but another who with a quiet run out the back has the class to run into this with the right run. Would need everything to go right, but no reason why he canít run first four at odds.
6-GOLD TRIP has been coming along quite nicely in the staying races, wasnít suited on the dry track and slow speed in the Turnbull and then ran into the race like the winner in the Caulfield Cup before just being grabbed late (and he was really bad off at the weights that day). Wet track is a big plus and he is well proven past 2000M unlike many of these. He can probably camp right behind the speed here and think he is going to be pretty strong to the line Ė we have no issue with Caulfield Cup horses backing up in the Cox Plate, they are often hard fit and ready for a tough 2000M. Best roughie in the race and a genuine winning chance.
7-LAWS OF INDICES has put in two sensational runs last two starts, and make an astounding amount of ground late last start. Interesting because his Australian preparations before this one werenít that crash hot, but itís probably worth having a crack at this race off his last run. Be interesting to see if they go forward from the good barrier here, slight concern of him dropping back along the inside and needing luck to get through the field. Wet track is a plus, distance a query, but good value runner for exotics based on his form.
8-YOUNG WERTHER is still stuck on the one win from 13 races, but they have all been at the top level. Has had a few issues and raced very sparingly, and should have plenty of improvement to come off the two runs this time in which have both been excellent. Probably settles forward here from a good barrier too. Just get the feeling he is a Flemington horse though and Moonee Valley may not be his thing, but once again pretty good odds about a horse that could easily run first four.
9-MAXIMAL is another with just the one career win and was scratched at Caulfield last week because of the wet track so will be interesting to see if he turns up today itís a wet weather day. Turnbull run was excellent, but that was also an on-speed race and he was in the right spot in the run. Can probably settle handy here too, but just a place chance on a dry track.
10-ANAMOE deserves to be short-priced favourite and was a really classy win last start at Caulfield when he was set a task by some good horses and managed to come out and run them down. Been at the top level for a few seasons now and just keeps being dominant, a true WFA star. Was last on the home turn in this race last year to run through on the inside and only just miss (and missed the protest as well). Good barrier and really just needs to get out and running around them before the turn and he should just about win this. One to beat.
11-PROFONDO has been a major disappointment this spring, looked to have some ability as a 3YO and first few runs this time in looked promising, there have been a few excuses but basically just isnít racing well enough. No
12-EL BODEGON is probably the only real danger the favourite bringing exotic overseas blood to Australia and all. Very lightly raced and market will be the best guide, find it extremely difficult to line up the overseas form. With a lot of the field being suspect at the 2000M that really makes him an obvious second pick, but honestly your guess is as good as ours. Drawn middle barrier and racing in-space is probably a plus, think would want them to set a genuine tempo and not turn this into a sit sprint. Chance.
Summary: Really does look like this race is 10-ANAMOEís to lose, he has been dominant this spring and just needs to get looping around them before the turn and run into the race and he should win. Unlike many of the others the 2000M and wet track arenít an issue and hopefully he will be in a better spot outside horses on the turn this year compared to last year when he was last on the inside. The main danger we think is actually the 6-GOLD TRIP who has been racing extremely well and will be strong at the end of 2000M and was only run down late in the Caulfield Cup, and with the right ride the 2-IíM THUNDERSTRUCK is a blow-out chance. Not a huge amount of value around as is often the case with this race, but probably happy to just back 6-GOLD TRIP the place and take some exotics around him and the favourite.
BEST WIN: Race 7: 2-VITRUOUS CIRCLE $5 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 7: 2-VITRUOUS CIRCLE#1,7,8,10 x $4 = 100%
Really promising and under rated 3YO who has won his first two races at $61 and $21 and then solid effort here in the Bill Stutt on a leaderís track to be coming home hard late and really making ground on the line. Drop back and strongly run on horse who will be suited by the rise in distance and racing pattern should have them running on by this race. Back straight out at around $7 and anchor in quinellas with the favourite the 1-BERKELEY SQUARE who we are a bit wobbly on as might not be suited around tight MV circuit, the promising strong finishing 8-BERARDINO, the 7-DASHING who stuck on OK leading in the Caulfield Guineas and might do the same again here and a roughie up in class the 10-GOTTABESAVVY.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 5-LUNAR FLARE $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 5-LUNAR FLARE#6,9,11 x $3 = 100%
Very consistent stayer when right, and just needs some give in the ground and a fast enough tempo as she does have a very strong finish when unleashed. Love the win last start when she was held up for runs, but once slid across into clear running pounced for victory. Won this race last year in similar conditions and looks really suited by what looks a ridiculous pace here with possible leaders in the (2), (3), (8), (9),(12) should ensure a very genuine tempo. Great each way bet at around $8 and anchor in a quinella with the 6-PERSAN who looks ready to win, the 9-NERVE NOT VERVE who loves it wet and on-speed and the 11-FRANCESCO GUARDI who almost fell last start and still finished on strongly.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 10: 8-SAIGON $4 EW
Last race of the day you would think they will be winning running on late and that should suit this one. Fitter for the two runs in, both runs have been good, handles it soft, class might be the test but there actually isnít much depth to this race and draw out to swoop into the race last at around $16.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 15-SWEETENED $2.50 EW
Emergency who will get a start if they want to run from this outside barrier. Good win at first start and then ended up back of the field, and widest runner at Caulfield and ran on strongly to not be beaten far. Better for that experience, might drop back here again, but hopefully the track has been cut up a bit and they can run on as looks a good value bet at around $16.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 1-ZOEíS PROMISE $3 EW
We have been following this one and had a good collect last start at Caulfield and going to stay loyal. Tough rolling on-pacer and she showed last start she is very hard to get past when she was clearly headed but fought back to win. She needs the right tempo, sit sprints donít suit, she has no turn of foot, but rolling forward here she looks the likely leader and jockey Kelly stays on board. Give her a good chance at around $20.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 6-GOLD TRIP $2 WIN $4 PLACE
We actually think this is the main danger to the favourite in the Cox Plate and the short priced favourite is going to be hard to beat so more a place bet here. Been racing really consistently every start this time in, some give in the ground suits, Caulfield Cup run was super when looked the winner 50M out before being grabbed late and will run out a strong 2000M in a tough pressure race. Each way at around $14, but more the place.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 10: 2-AGREEABLE at around $4.50
Tough day to find a Lay of the Day with smallish fields, this one is drawn inside late in the day which may not be the place to be and has been dropping well back in her races, not sure she is at her best on wet tracks and not sure they go fast enough for her to run on here so happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a Moonee Valley townhouse
PLACE Race 5: 1-ZOEíS PROMISE
PLACE Race 7: 8-BERARDINO
PLACE Race 8: 5-LUNAR FLARE
PLACE Race 9: 6-GOLD TRIP
Moonee Valley and smallish fields is normally just the go for the Poor Manís Quaddie and we are keen to kick off with roughie Race 5: 1-ZOEíS PROMISE rolling on the speed and want to come home on the Race 9: 6-GOLD TRIP as a great place bet in the Cox Plate, so we just need to find the in-between stocking fillers. Looking at around $700 for a $5 outlay.
Races 7,8,9,10: 1,2,7,8 / 5,6,11 / 6,10 / 1,4,6,8,11 x $20 = 16.67%
Doesnít look a great value quaddie and not sure really worth having a serious try here, but for those who are game just take 10-ANAMOE in the Cox Plate and add in a back up in the 6-GOLD TRIP, one of those in the market probably wins the Vase, the MV Cup is an open betting race and best chance of a value winner is probably in the last race.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE.
Race 2: 3-ESTA LA ROCA, 4-ASHFORD STREET, 8-MOSSMAN GORGE
Race 3: 6-SHALAILED, 2-SWEET RIDE, 9-GREAT BARRIER REEF
Race 4: 15-SWEETENED, 3-WILLINGA BEAST, 7-WEE NESSY
Race 5: 1-ZOEíS PROMISE, 2-DO IT LA, 5-HELL HATH NO FURY
Race 6: 9-MILITARY EXPERT, 8-BANKERS CHOICE, 6-GENTLEMAN ROY
Race 7: 2-VITRUOUS CIRCLE, 8-BERARDINO, 1-BERKELEY SQUARE
Race 8: 5-LUNAR FLARE, 6-PERSAN, 11-FRANCESCO GUARDI
Race 9: 10-ANAMOE, 6-GOLD TRIP, 2-IíM THUNDERSTRUCK
Race 10: 8-SAIGON, 1-SIRILEO MISS, 6-ROOTS