Clear weather heading into the last weekend at Moonee Valley before the re-development and this track got a track upgrade to a GOOD(3) on the Friday night and they will have to water overnight for this meeting. Fine and sunny Saturday with the Cox Plate the last race of the day, so this track is going to end up pretty firm again. Normally rail TRUE plays pretty fair at MV, but do note that on firm tracks with rail TRUE the last few years the racing pattern has favoured those on-speed and they haven’t raced on the inside ground here since early September now (except last night). Last night the track seemed to race pretty fairly, but there was a lot of pressure on in some of the races and the races where the leaders got no pressure they often went on and won.
Always small fields and lots of short-priced favourites on Cox Plate Day so will be just dabbling with the bets and not much value around. Lot of these races are set weights so we have well-performed horses at group level really well weighted against horses coming off maiden wins and country form.
For Spring Campaign 2025 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 7: 4-RISE AT DAWN $5 WIN
Super tough on-speed horse who should be ready to win now with two runs this time in. Started ridiculous odds of $2 when beaten in Sydney last start (there are a lot of horses going around silly odds and getting beaten at the moment, including a few last night at MV), but the $4 seems about the right price today. His two runs in have been excellent, carried weight first-up and look gone on the turn, but somehow still got third and again last start was the first beaten but still ran a place. Firm track, on-speed, fitter for two runs in and at WFA against these all pluses and a confident win bet at around $4.
BEST WIN: Race 10: 2-ANTINO $5 WIN
This one just looks ready and primed for this race, he always takes a few runs to find best form each time in and last start in the Turnbull he had sprinted clear and had pretty much pinched the race and took an extraordinary effort to run him down. Small field and no speed suits him just fine, he is more versatile than most of these, he will take off mid-race somewhere here and may pinch a break on these before the turn. Keen to back straight out at around $4.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 8-SNOW MERCY $4 EW, QUINELLA 8-SNOW MERCY#3,4,6 x $3 = 100%
One of the more open races of the day, and this one has been racing really well and jockey is riding just as well too. Drawn well, can take a sit and last start winner this track and distance and horses behind her fought out the 3YO filly race at Caulfield so the form is strong. Back each way at around $5 and anchor in a quinella with the improving 3-VIRTUAL ILLUSION, the last start winner here 4-ST EDWARD and roughie 6-CACCHIONE who will be improved from first career start and is the likely leader here.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 8-BRIDAL WALTZ $4 EW, QUINELLA 3,7,8,9 boxed x $3 = 50%
Super consistent sprinting mare who has been in the finish her last six starts now. Last start was only beaten down the straight by a real smart one and she will go forward here and suspect those on-speed may be able to control this race. Back each-way at around $8 and box up a quinella with the 3-TROPICUS fit and on-speed the other leader, the 7-NIANCE with a good sit on them and the 9-VESTAS who flew home last start and may do the same again if the racing pattern allows it.
QUINELLA: Race 5: 4-FUTURE HISTORY, 8-SIR KINGSFORD, 7-STAR OF INDIA
boxed x $6 = 100%
Open race and even field but the 4-FUTURE HISTORY looks to be running into form and he won this race last year. Fitter for the 3 runs in and likely to lead here and he is a good front running stayer when in form. Box a quinella with the 8-SIR KINGSFORD who is tough on-speed and over from Adelaide and the 7-STAR OF INDIA who hit the line well last start in a strong form race.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 9-QUICKAZ $2 EW
Most open race of the day and close to no idea here – lots of different form lines and lots of horses coming up through the grades and suspect we probably get a good value winner in this. So let’s try for this one, professional win first up and then was competitive last start at Caulfield where the first three class runners spaced them but she worked through the field and beat the rest of the field home. She is going around at $23 and beat home the favourite the (12) last start. Rough.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 6-MOVIN OUT $1.50 EW
Good distance horse on her day and noticeable she was working through the field late last start.
Fitter for the three runs in and out to a suitable 2000M distance today. Will need the speed on and some luck working through the field from well back and an inside barrier, but suspect she won’t be far off in the finish today. Rough at $11.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 4-ROHESIA at around $4
This one has been going along well and been in the finish last few starts, and she might be in the finish again but just suspect one of the up and comers will get up here at odds and in a very even field think probably want some more value for finding the winner.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into buying all the Moonee Valley memorabilia we can get.
$5 ALL UP
WIN Race 4: 1-SALTY PEARL
WIN Race 7: 4-RISE AT DAWN
WIN Race 9: 1-OBSERVER
WIN Race 10: 2-ANTINO
Plenty of short-priced favourites today and there is no better way to jinx all of them than to put them in an all up win multi. Lets pick out them out and add in some of the better $4 win bets and multi them up to collect around $300 for a $5 outlay.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 4,7,8 / 3,5,7,8,9 / 1,3,6,9 / 2,4 x $20 = 16.66%
Quaddie unlikely to pay much today so need to be a little different and a bit bold, because if the favourites win its probably not really going to be worth much.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 10: COX PLATE 2040M GROUP 1
The final Cox Plate has seen the quality of the field diminish by the week, and it’s not clear if some of these are racing at their best. We are left with an interesting tactical race with no clear leader with the scratching of the 5-GLOBE. Most likely leader is the 7-TREASURETHE MOMENT from the 1-LIGHT INFANTRY MAN and 3-ATTRITION, but a dawdling speed will set it up nicely for a mid-race take off from the 2-ANTINO and he looks to get the perfect race today for those tactics.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-LIGHT INFANTRY MAN has only had the three runs back in this preparation up in Sydney, and not quite clear how well he is travelling as he has failed to get into the finish this time in. Dominant win in the Australia Cup earlier in the year, but he found form quickly last time in. Firmish track will suit and more positive riding tactics here may help, but he would have to improve pretty rapidly off his form from the last few starts. Passing.
2-ANTINO seems to be building very nicely this time in and looks perfectly set for this race with improvement to come, whereas most of his rivals don’t seem to be showing their best form. Missed the start and went early to run into the race in the Memsie, fought out the race well off a slow tempo in the Makybe Diva, and then burst to the lead at the top of the straight in the Turnbull and kicked clear and really he looked home and it took a pretty extraordinary effort to run him down. Beat home both the (6) and the (8) last start, and probably the Geelong Cup results this week reminded punters to pay attention to the previous times the same horses have clashed. Proven over 2000M and this race looks to set up perfectly for him, slow tempo he can sit off and make a slashing mid-race move. Seems to be racing into form. Been unlucky quite a few times in Melbourne and today could be redemption time. Looks the one to beat here.
3-ATTRITION seems to fly under the radar a bit and keeps running good races at good odds. He always takes a few runs into find his best, and tends to pick up a lot of place cheques finding one or two better each time. Goes well here, and despite not winning over 2000M he did win a Hill Stakes over 1900M. Last start in Sydney was really good chasing an all the way leader and jockey Williams may be able to give him a soft PINKER PINKER style ride here from an inside barrier. Hard to imagine him winning a Cox Plate, but probably the best roughie in this field and pretty good chance to run top four. Place.
4-BUCKAROO probably could have won both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup last spring, so expectation was he would be right in the mix this spring. Sydney preparation mid-year was ordinary but he may just be better the Melbourne way of going. Stunning run first-up in the Memsie at long odds (but he was in the fast lane on the rails), and then ridden into the race early on the turn in the Underwood and looked to have kicked clear, but was run down by a pretty good one. Disappointing in the Caulfield Stakes, but the slow speed didn’t suit and maybe he didn’t appreciate the firm track. Needs some speed on, and a quieter ride and he may not get that here. But have to say he seems way over the odds at $15, there really isn’t much wrong with his form this time in and he is quite capable of winning this if he repeats his form of last spring. Strong chance.
5-GLOBE SCRATCHED
6-VIA SISTINA absolutely thrashed them in this race last year, winning by 8 lengths, and the Cox Plate is one race that does tend to favour repeat winners. She was clearly the best horse in the country last spring and earlier this year, but she just hasn’t displayed her best form this time in. There hasn’t been anything particularly wrong with her form, she has been competitive and in the finish, but just there with the pack. She could just be building up to her Grand Final today and the punting market seems to think she is close to unbeatable here with some of her main rivals dropping out. Astounding 2000M and dry track record. Probably not suited if this turns into a sit and sprint. She may well go on and win again like she did last year, but just get the feeling she isn’t going as well. Strong chance, but also beatable.
7-TREASURETHE MOMENT lit up early spring with a dominant first-up win and looked a rising star, but a minor setback since and not winning two small field races has punters asking questions. Really nothing wrong with her last two starts and she has presented to run into the race at the right time, but she just hasn’t found what was needed. Likely to go forward here and can control the speed and that is a big plus. Be interesting to see what the betting market does with her, feeling is that punters may desert her here? On-speed, Moonee Valley, dry track are all big pluses, and again nothing particularly wrong with her form, but it is not her best. Chance, but would want to see a strong market move.
8-AELIANA almost upset the (6) first-up and that earnt her huge spruiks as the next big thing and like the others here she has been competitive, but not outstanding since. She is looking for more distance and strong tempos, and not sure a sit sprint around MV is her racing style. Drawn wide to sit out the back of the field here and if they are winning swooping she will be suited. Really there is not much between a few of these here and it’s a bit hard to push for one of them out of the bunch. Another with a good chance, but can’t push strongly. Chance.
9-NEPOTISM looked set for big things in his 2YO season wins, strongly coming from well behind. Been disappointing this preparation, though he did weave through the field well in the Caulfield Guineas and may be starting to run into form. The 3YOs who have run well in the Cox Plate are normally rolling staying types, this one is a drop back run on miler and not sure that is the right sort of horse for this. Probably has a decent race in him this spring still, but not sure it’s this one. No
Summary:
This will be a very interesting betting race as most of these are going along well, but not really outstanding and quite a few have failed to live up to expectations this time in. The one that seems to be racing into best form and ready to fire is the 2-ANTINO, fitter for the three runs in, can handle a sit and sprint tempo and the Turnbull run was excellent and would have won that race most years. Really like him going into this and everything seems to be falling into place for him, whilst his rivals haven’t quite matched expectations this time in. Want to make a case for the 4-BUCKAROO as a genuine danger who has been going just as well as the others and was flying this time last spring, he has presented and put himself in the finish at least, whilst many of the others have just been chasing behind. Obvious other pick is the 6-VIA SISTINA who wins easily if she finds her best form, but just uncertain how well she is going this time in. Best roughie the 3-ATTRITION with a quiet ride and adaptable turn of foot. Pretty keen to bet here and have a confident bet on the top pick and save on the second pick at odds.
Race 1: 9-TONKIN, 8-DON’T HOPE SO, 7-BEAST MODE
Race 2: 8-SNOW MERCY, 3-VIRTUAL ILLUSION, 6-CACCHIONE
Race 3: 9-QUICKAZ, 12-TRES MAGNIFIQUE, 3-KUJENGA
Race 4: 1-SALTY PEARL, 3-ENVIABLE, 6-SUNLIT SERANADE
Race 5: 4-FUTURE HISTORY, 8-SIR KINGSFORD, 7-STAR OF INDIA
Race 6: 4-SEA WHAT I SEE, 9-SHE’S UNUSUAL, 6-MOVIN OUT
Race 7: 4-RISE AT DAWN, 7-VON HAUKE, 8-OH TOO GOOD
Race 8: 8-BRIDAL WALTZ, 3-TROPICUS, 9-VESTAS
Race 9: 1-OBSERVER, 3-OPTIONS, 9-CROWN OF RUSSIA
Race 10: 2-ANTINO, 4-BUCKAROO, 6-VIA SISTINA
