Tips, suggested bets and feature race preview for the Cox Plate at Flemington 24/10/2026.
Fine and warm weather heading into the weekend and track staff will face a dilemma here with some rain forecast for Saturday afternoon, but not clear what time it is going to come through and it does look like just a few showers during the afternoon. So they do probably need to put some irrigation on this track Friday night. We are rail TRUE, and roses blooming at Flemington so it’s basically Derby Day a week early. Even racing pattern maybe tending towards on-speed early in the day on fresh ground. Inside probably better down the straight. Currently assuming that there will be light rain during the morning and this track will stay relatively firm till late afternoon.
Cox Plate Day is normally small fields and short-priced favourites, so be interesting to see how the results play out when they race at Flemington. Thanks to those who have stuck with us whilst our tips this spring have been nothing sort of atrocious, the win rate for the top picks is extremely poor and yes, yes you may have noticed that the Lay of the Day has won for five weeks in a row! Regardless, this looks a really good punting program and there are plenty of top picks here in double figures so we are going to double up to $100 in the Betting Portfolio.
For Spring Campaign 2026 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 2: 6-HALF PIPE $10 WIN
Only a small field down the straight here and probably going to be a pretty tactical race. This one was unlucky last start at Caulfield last start when he took a while to get into clear running and hit the line really strongly. Suspect he is going to be suited down the straight here and small field so hopefully he won’t get held up for run this time and may be stronger over the top of them late. Straight out at around $3.60
BEST WIN Race 3: 3-HIERARCHY $10 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 3: 3-HIERARCHY#2,10,11 x $6 = 200%
We were keen on this one last start at Caulfield off a nice turn of foot maiden win and he was given a very quiet ride, was happy to settle back and work home along the rails and he was hitting the line well – and even better after the line. Step up in distance and bigger track is going to suit and there wasn’t much between him and the short priced favourite the (2) last start and think this one may have a better turn of foot in a race with not much speed. Back each way at around $8 and anchor in a quinella with the obvious danger the favourite the 2-TRUE REBEL, and the other chances the 10-SALANN who was great after dropping too far back last start and the improving 11-JOELY.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 1-VON HAUKE $7 EW
QUINELA Race 6: 1-VON HAUKE#11,12,13,14 x $4 = 100%
Chronically under-rated miler who always hits peak form after a few runs in and on firm tracks over 1600M, so there are a lot of ticks for him today. Was working home well first-up and then just a fair run second-up but he should be ready to produce today. Level weight scale suits this one, Flemington record is good he just needs a solid enough tempo to allow him to run on late. Each way at around $12 and anchor in a quinella with the favourite the 12-SURFIN’ BIRD who is going to be hard to beat with a soft lead here, the 13-ON DISPLAY who has been racing well and probably also goes forward today from a good barrier, and value runners in the highly unpredictable 11-PONDALOWIE who was good in the Toorak, and the 14-ASTRAL FLAME who may improve leading on firm ground second-up.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 9-KINGS VALLEY $5 EW
Heavily involved in the unfortunate events last week in the Caulfield Cup, but he hit the line really well there and good chance that without the bumping duel on the turn he would have been right in the finish of that race. Wasn’t convinced he was a tough 2500M stayer, but his run last week now suggests otherwise. Be building towards something this spring and interesting choice to back him up again a week later. Big field here and a pretty tough staying contest so there are plenty of chances, but run last week was good enough to have something each way at around $13 and hoping they settle more forward today with an outside barrier.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 1-CEOLWULF $7 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 1,3,9,12 boxed x $6 = 100%
Keen to have something each way on the Sydney horse in the Cox Plate, just like the way he has been finishing his races off and he is racing in peak form, unlike a few of his main rivals here who punters are hoping will step up for a Grand Final event – and may not. The big track Flemington 2000M suits as he will have to make a long sustained run at them and to be honest probably we wouldn’t tip him if this race was at MV. In an even field he looks a great each way bet at around $8 and probably gets just a little give in the ground by the time the Cox Plate is run which will be a plus. Box up in a quinella with the 3-SIR DELIUS with improvement, the 3YO 12-BLIND RAISE who may run a race at odds here and don’t underestimate the 9-SAINT GEORGE at Flemington off a great Caulfield Cup run.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 11-SUN GIFT $5 EW
Extremely open last race with a big field and lots of chances. This one showed a lot of promise back at the start of the year and is ready to win now with the two runs this time in. Strong finish last start to try and chase down the winner and meets that one a very nice 4kgs better off here for a 1L defeat. Drawn out, will drop back and come hard down the middle of the track, so will need a genuine tempo, but just looks ready to win at around $12.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 7-UNFLINCHING $3 EW
Speculative bet in the first race on one that has excellent 1000M stats and he is a straight out jump and run to the lead horse and he looked the winner at long odds here back in March when was only run down late. First-up here but has been given two solid jump out to get ready for this. First race of the day down the straight and he will need to jump and rain and get to the rails, and if he can do that he may run a race at around $35.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 7-SUPERBEC $2.50 EW
Another roughie leader down the straight, and this one was excellent winning her maiden two starts back and then she ended up at the back of the field at Caulfield against her normal racing pattern in a forgive run. Drawn inside and she looks the clear leader here and really want to see her taken out to a clear lead today and she may run a race at $50.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 2-JIGSAW at around $2.60
We appreciate that we are probably going to offend a lot of people with this, and nothing personal against the horse who we have a lot of time for. Just wanted to set up a scenario with our five week in a row Lay of the Day bet up against a horse on an 8 run winning streak. Fascinating that he has only started favourite twice in that time, but if the streak is going to end it will most likely be down the Flemington straight where he isn’t proven and he is up against three horses on the improve this preparation who are proven down the straight in the 8-EXTRAGALACTIC, 3-REY MAGNERIO, 5-SMOOTH CHINO and suspect one of them runs over the top of him today.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a new grandstand for Moonee Valley.
RUNNING DOUBLE: Races 7,8: 2,7,9,12,13 / 1-CEOLWULF x $5 = 100%
Open staying race leading into an open Cox Plate so the running double may pay OK here if we can land a winner over $10 into our Cox Plate pick in the 1-CEOLWULF. Mainly we just wanted to squeeze the roughie 13-AUTUMN MYSTERY into one of our bets as we have backed him the last two starts and he is not without a hope today at $50 out to the 2500M.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 1,12,13 / 2,7,9,12,13 / 1,3,9,12 / 1,4,9,11 x $20 = 12.5%
This quaddie is going to pay today, and need to go wide in the staying race which are always more open than they seem and really just hope with some good chances in a big field in the last race.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 8 COX PLATE 2040M GROUP 1
For the feature Cox Plate, great to see they have managed to keep the traditional 2040M distance even though they are racing at Flemington, though they could have put the rail out 14M to add to the MV feel. Great field for the form punters to dissect even if some of the top liners have gone chasing the Sydney cash in other races and always intrigue about what the 3YOs can do in this. This is a very different race when held at Flemington, we do wonder if the 3YOs are going to be as much of a factor and if that is mainly a MV thing and the way the race gets run there.
Speed map is a bit unpredictable as we don’t really know what the 7-LAND LEGEND is going to do today, otherwise you would think they let the 2-LIGHT INFANTRY MAN slide forward and keep rolling. The two 3YOs are going to get a perfect run just behind the speed with no weight in the 11-WARWOVEN, 12-BLIND RAISE and the 5-COSMIC CRUSADER probably slots in just behind these. Genuine tempo will allow them to run on down the middle of the track.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-CEOLWULF doesn’t come down to Melbourne often and he was extra tough to fight on to win the feature mile over Cup week here last spring on a very heavy track. Form this time in has been excellent, running on strongly into the finish each time and he did have to give the winner a whopping 9kgs in the Epsom and he got held up for runs trying to get through the pack there – and note he beat the rest of the field clearly. Chased home hard off a slow tempo last start and the first two home there spaced the rest of the field. Hasn’t raced over 2000M since early last year, but milers can win this race – but can they win this race off a genuine tempo over the Flemington 2000M? Handles all track conditions though he may be even better in the wet. Not quite sure what to do with this one, he is very genuine and his last two runs have been excellent so starting to think the 2000M isn’t going to be an issue here. Strong chance.
2-LIGHT INFANTRY MAN will be loving that this race is at Flemington this year seeing he has won 3 from 7 races here and 2 from 4 this track and distance. Best form is when he is allowed to free reign and roll along in front and really he had the Turnbull Stakes shot to pieces last start and it took a pretty amazing effort from the 5-COSMIC CRUSADER to chase him down. Genuine 2000M horse, handles all conditions, drawn wide but surely they go forward again here, question may be if anything else tries to set the speed with him as well. Well held in this race last year at MV. He was fading on the line late last start and suspect those behind him in the 3-SIR DELIUS and 10-AELIANA probably have more improvement to come than this one. Would want a dry track favouring those on-speed and to get his own way in front to be a genuine winning chance, and good chance that is exactly what he is going to get. At least you know he will be in the finish as they come down the straight and he is probably over the odds here. Rough place.
3-SIR DELIUS was all the rage last spring coming off some very impressive wins before the vets sidelined him for a dubious X-ray. Took the scalp of the undefeated AUTUMN GLOW over the Autumn over 2000M and he does seem to take a few runs in each time to find his best. Set for this race and set to peak today. Couldn’t chase down the leader last start, but he stuck with them to the finish and sure to be plenty of improvement to come and suspect he is better on dry tracks regardless. Well drawn, can box-seat here just behind the speed, solid tempo is going to suit and he does seem to be a big track 2000M horse. Question may be if he is going as well as he was this time last year and maybe he isn’t quite as good as we all thought? The (5) did go straight past him last start. This looks the perfect set up for him, third run in, Flemington 2000M sitting handy off a fast tempo – if he gets back to his form of last spring he will win this. Dry track is a big plus. Strong chance.
4-ATTRITION won a fairly low standard edition of a Group 2 last start and he has raced well in that race a few times now. Actually ran fourth in this race last year at $41 and off very similar form and a very similar preparation. 2000M is as far as this one wants, and even that extra 40M may be an issue. Well drawn and he will probably settle handy just behind the speed here, but with a fair bit of speed in this race and a tough pressure 2000M which is right at the top of his distance range, think he gets found out here today. No.
5-COSMIC CRUSADER has had a sensational spring stepping up in distance each start and against stronger opposition each time, and being right in the finish of every race he has contested. Sensational win here in the Turnbull Stakes when he chased one that had kicked clear, and right in the finish of the Caulfield Cup where the dry track and end of 2400M probably found him out. We don’t normally mind Caulfield Cup horses backing up into the Cox Plate, they are hard and fit and ready for the pressure of the race. However, he has been up since July and he has already had six starts this preparation, so wonder how much more there is to give this time in. Any rain would be a big plus for this one, he seems much better on soft ground – dry track is a negative to us. He has stung us a few times this spring when we have underestimated him, but think he still probably finds one better here with others having more improvement to come. Prefer place.
6-BIRDMAN has really gone up a notch in his last two preparations this year, from a standard 2400M staying type to a really dynamic WFA 2000M horse. He has been showing a really good turn of foot and has been putting his races away, like he did in the Underwood and note he comfortably beat home the (5) there. Couldn’t reel in the leader in the Might and Power, but then again neither could any of the others and he did loom up like the winner. Flemington dry track suits if the rains holds off. Be interesting to see what the market does with this one, he did look like he was going to go on this spring. Not sure about barrier 1 here, most of his wins have been looping the field, but he did chase down PRIDE OF JENNI mid-year so the solid tempo could suit him. Rough.
7-LAND LEGEND surprised everyone with his upset win in the Might and Power, it was a great ride by the jockey and the dry track was the key – he really needs a genuinely firm track to show his best. Set a track record that day and held off the Caulfield Cup winner. Be interesting to see if they try those tactics again here today, we have a bigger field and some genuine leaders contesting this race so it’s a very different set up. Drawn wide means he is going to have to work early to go forward and whilst it was a great win last start, think punters are realistic that everything just fell into place. Best run outside of last start in the last two years was this track and distance on a dry track, flashing home late. Dry track is a big plus. Hard to see him getting away with pinching a race again, especially not the Cox Plate, but the win last start was genuine and put him in your exotics. Rough place.
8-MIDDLE EARTH has been slowly working through spring, but his main target is the Melbourne Cup, where he ran third last year. He has always been a bit hard to catch when he is going to put in a good run, and he has only won 2 times from 16 starts since racing in Australia, but most of his races have been at the top level. Worked home well in the Caulfield Cup out wide. Cox Plate is often a good warm-up racing leading into the Melbourne Cup and that is the only reason he is racing here. Not today.
9-SAINT GEORGE has been super consistent this spring and he has finished in the top two every start, except for the heavy track Turnbull run which was a total write off. Cut the corner in the Caulfield Cup from an inside barrier and he has an excellent turn of foot to take gaps when required. That was a handicap though and this is WFA. Flemington and 2000M stats are excellent and he does seem much better on a dry track. Hard to knock his form here and there are a few here that have yet to show their best form this time in, and may not today – but we know how this one is travelling and he is in peak career and winning form. Genuine rough chance here in a winnable Cox Plate for him. Rough.
10-AELIANA has been set for this race off the three runs in and second-up run behind AUTUMN GLOW was excellent when she chased hard, and fought the race out to the line in the heavy track Turnbull. Was badly held up for runs coming to the turn in this race last year and she went to the line under a hold with no run in the straight, so at least she won’t have that issue today drawn barrier 10 at Flemington, she should be able to come to the middle of the track and let loose her extended staying finish. Won here on Derby Day 2024, but that is he only win in Melbourne so far and she has been beaten at $3.80, $3.70, $5 and $3.20, so do wonder if she is better Sydney way of going? Probably better with some give in the track, so elevate if the rain comes. Solid tempo here will suit. She is a definite winning chance here, just not sure we want to back her, especially not on a dry track. Chance.
11-WARWOVEN has been flying through spring and he never looked like losing in the Caulfield Guineas when he got the perfect sit and tracked the leader into the race. We thought the 1600M might have been a query there, but it was definitely not and no reason why he can’t run out the 2000M here. Nice barrier and he can settle handy and track the speed here. Be interesting to see how the 3YOs go over the Flemington 2000M, they are always a highlight and a talking point of this race but normally it is the more staying types that run well, rather than the milers. Coming into this in brilliant winning form and might just go on with it so a strong chance here. Strong chance.
12-BLIND RAISE has been flying through spring as well and the first two really cleared away from them in the Caulfield Guineas, but maybe there wasn’t that much in the rest of the field. First two wins this time in were dominant, and then he did get pestered in the lead last start, and gave a good kick but the winner there was too good. More confident of this one running out the 2000M than the other 3YO, and he doesn’t have to go forward here today, so he can sit and unleash with a lightweight. Think he is over the odds here and a genuine winning chance. Chance.
Summary:
A lot of the form analysis is expecting horses to peak for races they have been set for this spring, but doesn’t mean we should ignore those who has been racing well over the last month and beating them home. Very even edition of the Cox Plate and most of these have some chance, just a matter of who is going to peak today. We are going to put the 1-CEOLWULF on top, really like the way he has been finishing off his races this time in, and the long Flemington straight will allow him to make a long sustained run at them – he probably wouldn’t win at MV!. The 3-SIR DELIUS as the main danger, based on the assumption that he is going to peak today off a solid tempo and onto a dry track, but accept that both his runs this time in have been a little below par. We want to throw in the 12-BLIND RAISE as the 3YO to watch out for and the best rough here is actually the 9-SAINT GEORGE off a great run last week, in form, loves Flemington and gets a dry track – don’. Most likely will box these up in a quinella which should pay OK in an even field.
Race 1: 11-BRED’EM ALL, 1-SPYWIRE, 7-UNFLINCHING
Race 2: 6-HALF PIPE, 2-BUGGSY, 5-VALAROSO
Race 3: 3-HIERARCHY, 2-TRUE REBEL, 10-SALANN
Race 4: 1-CHAYAN, 3-ANGELS FURY, 7-SUPERBEC
Race 5: 8-EXTRAGALACTIC, 3-REY MAGNERIO, 5-SMOOTH CHINO
Race 6: 1-VON HAUKE, 12-SURFIN’ BIRD, 13-ON DISPLAY
Race 7: 9-KINGS VALLEY, 2-JUJA KIBO, 7-MR MONACO
Race 8: 1-CEOLWULF, 3-SIR DELIUS, 12-BLIND RAISE
Race 9: 11-SUN GIFT, 4-SUNSET PARK, 9-PERFECT TEN
