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MOONEE VALLEY: DATO TAN CHIN NAM STAKES - 15th Sept 2012
Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: SHOWER OR TWO - Rail: TRUE

Betting Portfolio ($50):
Spring is doing its very best to break though in Melbourne with a fair bit of sunshine between rain storms. Just a few showers coming into the weekend so this track should remain pretty firm, and on the better side of DEAD. Rail goes back to TRUE here, normally MV rail TRUE it is very difficult for the on pacers and the winners come out on the camber and swoop home and win. So if you are leading around the home turn, just hold your breath and count to three before going the early crow – so often your leading horse can stop so quickly in the straight at Moonee Valley.

Looks a solid betting day, most of this form is exposed by now and suspect the main 2-3 chances will be fighting out most of these races. Quite a few shorties who will probably win as is the way at most MV meeting. So very little in the way of upsets or roughies, but you can back a few around the $4 mark straight out with some confidence.

RESULTS: Track races as predicted - fairly firm track, and most of the winners swoop out wide around the camber. Horses can win even though being ridden wide and hard for a long way over the last 600M. Smattering of winners in the selections, but the poor ol' Betting Portfolio just cannot take a trick at the moment.

BEST BET: Race 6: 5-GREEN MOON $15 WIN 2nd W=$3.80
Import become local who is on a Cups campaign and showed he was a major player last spring. Autumn win showed he has a touch of class, and, well, it became obvious he was only going around for a warm up run when stable announced intention to ride him back last start in the Memsie. Huge run that day coming from last on the turn along the rails. Listen for riding tactics, but think they will try and get him to settle midfield and swoop rather than going forward, but that’s how you win at the Valley and suspect that this is a tester for a serious Cox Plate tilt. Think the $3.50 and upwards is pretty good odds. Pretty confident – as long as the stable wants to win this week !
RESULTS: Was very, very keen on this one. Positioned perfectly mid field, loomed up at the right time, raced into the straight full of gusto and somehow, somehow, still hadn't quite got there on the line to go down in a photo finish. Shattered. Looked to have the race won a long way out and we were already in the collect queue, but just seemed to hit a flat spot the last little bit. Keep following.

BEST WIN: Race 1: 2-FORGET $8 WIN 3rd W=$2.10
QUINELLA : Race 1: 2-FORGET, 4-ADJUSTER x $2.50 2-FORGET 3rd W=$2.10 / X
QUINELLA : Race 1: 2-FORGET, 6-BEL THOR x $2.50 2-FORGET 3rd W=$2.10 / X
Excellent run by this one last week when he raced on speed, kicked clear far too early in the straight and still fought on well – made even better as there was a ferocious head wind that day at Flemington and most of the on pacers faded quickly. Racing well, should race on speed here and there doesn’t seem to be much pace so looks the one to beat in this. Just is likely to start pretty short, at around $2.60, so let’s try and get something more substantial with some quinellas.
RESULTS: Started stupid odds, got a perfect sit behind the speed and pulled out at the right time. Had every chance and probably a little disappointing. What is it with these favourites in the first race - they always seem to start far shorter than they really should.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 6-MIDNIGHT MARTINI $5 EW X
With poor WHOBEGOTYOU passing away this week, and him winning the feature race here 2 years ago, you would think there is a good chance that Kavanagh and Rodd are going to pop up on this program somewhere. Solid run by this one 1st up, ran on nicely and didn’t have much luck when trapped behind a wall of horses in this race last year – 2nd up off a similar 1st up run. Has a pretty good win strike rate and drawn to sit out wide and swoop into this. Solid chance at around $5
RESULTS: Not much speed on and goes to the lead against normal pattern, but kicks in the straight and looks OK - before fading badly the last 50M to even miss the place. That's pretty much what happens when you lead around the turn at Moonee Valley.

BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 9-UMGETON $2 WIN, $5 PLACE X
Huge run by this one `1st when jumped and sat on the speed, looked beaten, but was coming again before being knocked sideways. Still lightly raced, good win place strike rate and MV form is excellent – yet to miss a place at 4 starts at MV 1000M. Drawn out, bit of speed here, so probably just wants to roll just off the speed, out wide, but in clear running room. Not really suited under this weight scale, and there are two smart ones here - but like the $26 about one that really hasn’t done much wrong. Rough chance.
RESULTS: Never a factor.

LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 3-ABOUT SQAURE at around $2.90 8th W=$5.70
Struggling to find a Lay this week, cause most of those under $4 look solid chances, but just think this one looks a little short at around the $3 mark in the first. Was an even run 1st up at Caulfield in a blanket finish, but not sure you can get over enthused about it, and if the favourite the (2) doesn’t win this then good chance one of the ones down the bottom will rapidly improve. Just looks under the odds to us. Risking.
RESULTS: Was actually around the $3 mark when we mailed out the newsletter on Friday morning. Loomed up at one stage, but never finished it off so fairly easy lay.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
$2.50 ALL UP = $5
WIN Race 1: 2-FORGET 3rd W=$2.10
PLACE Race 3: 1-PRECEDENCE 1st W=$5.70, P=$2.30 *** love it when that happens ***
WIN Race 6: 5-GREEN MOON 2nd W=$3.80
EACH WAY Race 8: 4-MR MAKE BELIEVE X
Let’s try and make use of the wonderful powers of multiplication seeing there are unlikely to be much in the way of long shots popping up today. Being a little brave / foolish here and doubling up on some of our bets, but really the Race 1: (2) and Race 6: (5) really should just about win. In Race 3 the (1) shouldn’t be far off running on late – just has to give weight to a lot of these but can put in a good run early in his preparations so looks a solid place bet. Come home each way in the last on the (4) who put in a really good run 1st up – bit of speed here so probably would want to just sit off them from middle barrier. Always safer to be each way in your last leg too – nothing worse than having a big all up going the win into a horse that runs a place and if everything goes to plan should be looking at around $40-50 each way in the last at around $8. Good luck.
RESULTS: The first leg let us down, else we would have been travelling along nicely coming into the straight in the feature race.


RESULT: WIPE OUT
SPENT : $50
RETURN : $0
NET : $-50



The Tips:

Race 1: 2-FORGET, 4-ADJUSTER, 6-BEL THOR
Race 2: 5-SATURN ROCK, 7-FLYING HOSTESS, 6-STELLA LANTE
Race 3: 5-KING DIAMOND, 1-PRECEDENCE, 7-EBONY ROCK
Race 4: 4-BUXTED, 1-TANBY, 11-A SHADE BETTER
Race 5: 2-GOLDEN ARCHER, 4-BEL SPRINTER, 9-UMGETON
Race 6: 5-GREEN MOON, 7-HAPPY TRAILS, 10-TOKUGAWA
Race 7: 6-MIDNIGHT MARTINI, 2-SPIRIT SONG, 1-AVIENUS
Race 8: 4-MR MAKE BELIEVE, 12-AMAH ROCK, 5-SEE THE WORLD



RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
2-FORGET 2nd W=$2.10
4-ADJUSTER
6-BEL THOR

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
5-SATURN ROCK 3rd W=$6.40
7-FLYING HOSTESS
6-STELLA LANTE 2nd W=$10.60

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
5-KING DIAMOND
1-PRECEDENCE 1st W=$5.70
7-EBONY ROCK

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
4-BUXTED 1st W=$3.50
1-TANBY
11-A SHADE BETTER

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
2-GOLDEN ARCHER
4-BEL SPRINTER 1st W=$2.80
9-UMGETON

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
5-GREEN MOON 2nd W=$3.80
7-HAPPY TRAILS 1st W=$5.20
10-TOKUGAWA

Quinella: $10.10

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
6-MIDNIGHT MARTINI
2-SPIRIT SONG 2nd W=$3.30
1-AVIENUS

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
4-MR MAKE BELIEVE
12-AMAH ROCK 2nd W=$7.90
5-SEE THE WORLD


RACE 6: DATO TAN CHIN NAM STAKES GROUP 2 1600M WFA
Tips:
5-GREEN MOON 2nd W=$3.80
7-HAPPY TRAILS 1st W=$5.20
10-TOKUGAWA

Quinella: $10.10

Others: 6

Pace: SLOW
Leaders :
Handy : 1-HEART OF DREAMS, 2-MIDAS TOUCH, 5-GREEN MOON, 7-HAPPY TRAILS, 8-MR CHARD, 11-SAPTAPADI
Back : 3-LINTON, 4-REKINDLED INTEREST, 6-ALCOPOP, 9-SNEAK A PEEK, 10-TOKUGAWA, 12-ETHIOPIA

Chances:
5-GREEN MOON is going to be a major player this spring. Last spring his runs in the Caulfield Cup and Newcastle Cup were really outstanding and he was looking like being the goods before the whole thing came to a screaming halt (and thumping halt) on Derby Day. Showed with his 1st up win in the Autumn that he had some class – really liked that win – he sat, positioned and burst clear – showed he had a touch of class and could probably mix it at WFA. Was keen on him 1st up, but then stable announced they were going to ride him back – it become obvious that was just a warm up jog and canter. His run in the Memsie was simply outstanding, coming from last on the turn and flying home along the inside. Watch out for riding pattern today, whether they go back again or go forward – he can do both pretty well regardless. Does seem like they are planning to run him in the Cox Plate, rather than the Caulfield Cup, so suspect they want to run him here to train him to sit and swoop – and expect he will do just that. Looks the one to beat. Strong chance. 2nd W=$3.80

6-ALCOPOP has a fair bit of ability when right but is another where you wonder if he has missed the chance to win something big. Fitter for the 2 runs in over in Adelaide which were adequate at best. 1600M form is pretty good – as is his MV form. Probably should have won this race last year when jockey seemed to wait till they were in the straight before trying to put him into the race and he came with a flying finish. Difference is last year he was coming off some good Adelaide runs – bit hard to tell how he is going this year. Capable of improvement though, a lot of these are out of form, or not race fit, and on his best he can definitely win this, and he is drop back and swoop horse which is probably going to be the pattern here. Rough chance.

7-HAPPY TRAILS has always shown a bit of ability, but just been hard luck story after hard luck story mainly because of his drop back and run on style. You just get the impression he may have actually gone up a level this spring – 1st up win over 1200M and then in surprise move went forward in Memsie and peeled out and looked the winner at one stage. Fitter for the 2 runs in, one of the few in this field with race fitness and form on his side. 1600M record doesn’t look the best – but go back and look closely at them and most were in feature 1600M races where he dropped well back and come home strongly to be beaten narrow margins. Interesting to see if they go forward or back here – there doesn’t seem to be much speed so going forward might be an idea. Seems to be a different horse this time in and solid chance against these. Chance. 1st W=$5.20

10-TOKUGAWA seems to be one on the way up and shouldn’t be underestimated here. Lightly raced, and showed some ability with comfortable flashing win here 2 starts back. Last run was just as good, loomed up like he was going to do it again, just seemed to wobble around the turn a bit but was closing well on the line. Think he has a fair bit of ability – really like the way he makes ground when he is asked to go. Fitter for the 2 runs in – but step up here from a 89 rating 1200M to a Group 2 over 1600M though. Inside barrier is probably the problem again here – he needs to come around them and swoop – but reckon he has the turn of foot to do it. Inside barrier and the rise from 1200M to 1600M probably against, but rates some rough chance cause think he has the goods. One of the few race fit and in form in this field. Rough.

Place:
1-HEART OF DREAMS has been around for a while now but does seem to be struggling for form this time in. Had a solid year off after last spring after injury. 1st up run at Caulfield on unsuitable bog track was actually pretty good – he was chasing home hard and looked primed to go on this preparation. Then very disappointing last start when went forward, but gave in very quickly and jockey reported he didn’t feel right in his action. Firm track will suit. Best form is definitely at Caulfield though, does appear to be racing below best and is under an injury cloud so very hard to get enthused. Worth noting that both Oliver and Newitt have jumped on other runners. Would be good to see him get back to some form, and 1st up run was promising so might bounce back, but hard to back with any confidence. This doesn’t seem that tough an ask though on his best form. Place

12-ETHIOPIA is a very lightly raced one who main giant leaps for horse kind during his Autumn campaign. Competitive in every start is always a really positive sign. Drawn out, will drop back here and be ridden very quietly and probably have the last crack at them which isn’t such a bad thing around MV, rail true. Will be looking for further and probably not suited at WFA, but has the most upside out of these and a bit of an unknown quantity – you would think he is going to improved again after only one preparation and 4 starts. Will be running on very late – prefer place.

Sacking:
2-MIDAS TOUCH was SCR last week from the Makybe Diva Stakes. Import who showed some form last year with some tough gutsy on pace runs before being injured. Took a few runs last year to find form. Form this year has been just as bad as his 1st few runs last year – he really didn’t show anything till he stuck on, on pace in last year’s Makybe Diva. Showed a little 1st up when went forward, but then seemed to stop very quickly on a wet track. Watch out for riding tactics – most likely to go forward here but really need to wait til he shows some form before getting on. No

3-LINTON is a sparingly raced Williams stable runner who is one we have probably never seen the best of and you just get the impression he might have missed his chance to win a big feature. Still not quite sure how good he is – he never quite lived up to the buzz about him as a 3YO. Put in a nice run in this race last year 2nd up when didn’t have much luck – but then quite a few others didn’t have much luck either. Consistent form Spring 2010 when he put it all together, but his drop back and run on style just means he is often going to find bad luck or have one grab a kick on him. Drawn out here, will drop back, Williams stable horses rarely fire 1st up – especially not their Cups horses so happy to let him go around here. No (Apologies change of trainer was missed in original form guide) 4th W=$8.10

4-REKINDLED INTEREST is one we really struggle to catch and suspect he might be a bit of a tease. Has a stack of ability, but also a stack of hard luck stories and always seems to be running on in a flashy style into a placing rather than winning. Won this race last year, but seriously, half the field either got blocked for runs or held up in a bunched field and he just happened to go at the right time and get a clear run. Excellent run in the Cox Plate last year, other win was here in the AAMI Vase so does look like he might be a MV horse. Doesn’t want it too wet, or too firm, and likes his steaks medium rare - this track might be slightly firmer than he likes, but guess it is the StrathAyr so that should offset it. He won this race last year coming off 2 solid runs leading in, this year just the one lead in run and although stewards report that he wasn’t ridden out in the Memsie - on video not sure he was travelling all that well regardless. Will drop back here and swoop home which should be the racing pattern. To be honest we have had enough of him and there is no way we would back him as $3.50 favourite off an indifferent run. Might win – but don’t really care !. Happy to risk. 3rd W=$4.40

8-MR CHARD does appear to be struggling for form at the moment. Showed a fair bit of ability in Spring 2010, but then full year off, 1 run and another 5 months off so obviously had a few wee little issues. Fitter for the 3 runs in, whacked away OK at Caulfield in the Liston, but really thought he would have shown a bit more last week at Flemington when was very disappointing. Probably goes forward from inside barrier here , but can’t have on form. No

9-SNEAK A PEEK is an overseas import who was just fair at his 1st Australian run at Caulfield. Lightly raced, obviously the trainer goes kinda OK, should be better for the run and the extra distance will suit, but will probably drop well back here from inside barrier in a dawdling race and would have to come around the whole field. Doubt the tight MV track would be his go. Wait for some form. No

11-SAPTAPADI is an overseas import come local and was much maligned last spring as to why he got a run in the Cups based off his one maiden win. Didn’t show much form last spring and really shown very little this time in. Surprise leader last start – not sure that was intended or if they will do it again, but will probably race handy so at least the owners get the thrill of hearing their horse’s name mentioned a few more time. No form. No

Summary: Doesn’t appear to be that many solid winning chances in this – especially not when you decide to take on the favourite 4-REKINDLED INTEREST. Sure he might win, but just not a horse of ours so happy to let him run regardless.

Bit hard to see where the speed is going to come from here. 1-HEART OF DREAMS will race handy, 2-MIDAS TOUCH might go forward (listen out for tactics), 5-GREEN MOON suspect they will want to take a midfield sit and swoop, 7-HAPPY TRAILS might go forward seeing it worked last time, 8-MR CHARD probably the most likely leader and 11-SAPTAPADI well, who knows ? So likely to be dawdling race and be wary of those trapped on the rails as they approach the turn – lots of hard luck stories in this race last year and it is all going to be about whipping around the bend at the right time, in the right spot and swooping. To be honest, very similar race to last year which 4-REKINDLED INTEREST won. Actually just realised we made him the One to Risk in this race last year as well – and he stung us – we are so asking for trouble by taking him on again.

We are really keen on 5-GREEN MOON here. 1st up run was gigantic, and stable didn’t seem particularly interested in winning that day – suspect if he settled handy he would have gone pretty close to winning. Suspect they will take a sit here and they are giving him a Cox Plate trial – so they want him to sit and swoop and think he will win. Has the turn of foot and class to win this. Second pick is 7-HAPPY TRAILS, race fit and in form, and you just wonder if he has gone up a level this spring. Will be keeping a close eye on 10-TOKUGAWA who seems to have a lot of untapped ability and might just make a big leap in grade here. But actually very keen on the top pick 5-GREEN MOON here and keen to have a decent bet to win. Think he wins this and seriously like the odds of $3.50 and upwards.


One to risk: 4-REKINDLED INTEREST (2nd time lucky?) 3rd W=$4.40
Roughie: 6-ALCOPOP

The Key: Swooping on the camber with the right run.

RESULTS: They ran along OK, and really our confident top pick 5-GREEN MOON looked the winner a long, long way out. Looked like a no stress collect - and then suddenly we are at the finishing post and it seems like he hasn't quite got there. Tough win by 7-HAPPY TRAILS, makes such a difference when you go forward in a race instead of waiting out the back for the excuses to start piling up. Sold runs from 4-REKINDLED INTEREST and 3-LINTON running on - thankfully 4-REKINDLED INTEREST didn't sting us this time - still suspect he is going to be a costly betting proposition over time cause he just doesn't seem to win as often as he should. Happy to keep following 10-TOKUGAWA who got stuck on the rails and was facing a huge step up in class.


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