 |
Have a free $200 ping at one at odds - up to $200 cash back offer
Betfair now offers a Best of 5 tote product |
|
| MOONEE VALLEY : Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes - 14th Sept 2013 |
| Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: RAIN - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): After last week’s feast of big fields and value winners at Flemington, we need to get back into a MV punting frame of mind - with the usual array of small fields and short priced favourites. Weather has gone cold again in Melbourne this week and there is a lot of rain forecast for Friday night so assume this track is going to be the worse side of dead and heading towards slow. So look for genuine wet trackers. Normally the rail TRUE at MV favours those running on, though the rail has gone back in from being out 4M last meeting, and at the last meeting here when the rail was TRUE the racing actually unusually favoured leaders. Smallish fields might also play towards the on pacers, but as always watch the first few races and see what you learn. Struggling to find anything of any value today with so many short priced favourites. RESULTS: Rain doesn't end up coming and track firms up to a GOOD(3). Even racing, they can win swooping or leading, though the on pacers dominate in the sprint races. Tips have a dead set shocker. Not a good day when the best result is a $1.05 winner... BEST BET: Race 6: 8-SUPER COOL $15 WIN 4th W=$2.50 Feature race is really down to a race in two, the 8-SUPER COOL and the 3-FIORENTE. Both were really good runs in the Memsie, with the (8) flashing home late and the (3) held up for runs for a long way. Place getters coming through the Memsie have an excellent record in this race – 7 winners since 2000 have been in the first three home in the Memsie as their lead up run. Just tending towards the (8) here, he has more of a sprint on him, and this is always a very tactical race in normally small fields and slow speed around MV. Just a bit concerned that if they don’t go forward on the (3) he is going to be caught on the inside waiting for runs whilst the main rival whooshes around him. Happy to get on the (8) here – think he runs into the race at the right time swooping out wide on the turn and really should win. Best bet at around $3.20 RESULTS: Well there's punting irony for you. We tipped the (8) because he had drawn outside the (3) and thought he would be making clear runs around the field, whilst the (3) was stuck inside runners. And exactly the opposite happened ! Funny run from 8-SUPER COOL who was struggling coming up to the turn, but got going again late - suspect he didn't like being tight inside other horses on the turn. This is always a very messy tactical race. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 4-SNITZEM $5 EW X Super speedy type who is 1st up, but has won a barrier trial and has won 3 from 5 this track and distance. Bit of speed as always in a 1000M MV scamper, but he has drawn 2 and looks the likely leader here and good chance something will jump and run and rail and win – and it is probably him. Main danger is the short priced favourite the (1) who has a stack and ability and really well in under this weight scale, but has the danger barrier 1 over the MV 1000M – and the last place you want to be is stuck on the rails with a half dozen on pacers keeping ground outside you. Prefer to go each way on the (4) at around $6 and should be in the finish. RESULTS: Doesn't lead and is one of the first beaten. Pretty disappointing. Tipped him cause we thought something would jump and run and rail and win - and beat the short priced favourite - and it did - just not the one we tipped. BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 9-BELIEVE ME $3 EW X Bit surprised about the odds on offer about this one. Started long odds at 1st career start at Caulfield, but was really good finishing hard late behind a smart one. Then didn’t show much when taken to a country race. But think based on the good Caulfield run is worth a little something each way here – especially as the $61 on offer looks race nice. Step up to the 1500M likely to suit. Small play each way bet on spec, but if he runs up to his Caulfield run will be around the money here. RESULTS: Does nothing. Good odds though ! QUINELLA: Race 3: 3-ANAGOLD, 7-PICTURE EDITOR, 5-CRAFTY CRUISER boxed x $3 = $9 2nd 5-CRAFTY CRUISER W=$9.60, 3rd 7-PICTURE EDITOR W=$3.80, 4th 3-ANAGOLD W=$5.60 Hopefully the quinella in the staying race will stay pay OK even around the favoured runners. The (3) has been racing really well the last 2 starts and looks close to a win, the (7) is very one paced, but best ridden forward and they may have found the trick with the win over in Adelaide, and the (5) should be ready to improve with the 3 runs back from a freshen up and was unlucky at Caulfield 2 starts back. RESULTS: Not too far off a collect here - 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Quinellas in these staying races always pay a healthy $15 to $20 even amongst the more obvious picks. BEST PLACE: Race 4: 3-OASIS BLOOM 2nd W=$29.90, P=$2.60 TRIFECTA: 1-ATLANTIC JEWEL / 3-OASIS BLOOM / 6-AVA’S DELIGHT x $2.50 1st 1-ATLANTIC JEWEL W=$1.04 / 2nd 3-OASIS BLOOM W=$29.90 / X TRIFECTA: 1-ATLANTIC JEWEL / 3-OASIS BLOOM / 5-BONNE NUIT x $2.50 1st 1-ATLANTIC JEWEL W=$1.04 / 2nd 3-OASIS BLOOM W=$29.90 / 4th 5-BONNE NUIT W=$42.80 Bit hard to bet in the ATLANTIC JEWEL benefit in Race 4, but hard to see the (3) not running 2nd. Solid on pace rolling type who should be ready to do something now with the 2 runs back which have both been good. Actually won this race last year – with far worse form in the same lead up races, so shame they ended up coming against one today that well, may just go OK. Small field and looks the only leader so suspect will get a pretty soft run up front here and should hold onto 2nd. Let’s see if the trifecta pays anything with the (6) who is always consistent, and of course we have to give the rank outsider (5) another place chance again – wet track will suit and although beaten would have finished at lot closer last start if she got to the outside (where she needs to be) at the right time. RESULTS: The good thing of the day runs...second. Just as the winner was a good thing, 3-OASIS BLOOM was a good thing to run 2nd and the $2.60 the place was a pleasant surprise. Couldn't turn it into a winning trifecta ticket though unfortunately. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 6-GODVIA ROCK at around $3.00 4th W=$3.30 fav Tough going to find a lay of the day when there is a short priced favourite in every race, but we have to pick one of them. For some reason these short priced favourites in the first few races always seem to start under the odds – and often get rolled – mainly cause there are always lots of horses on the improve. 3YO filly with Blue Diamond form, but bombed out big time when disappointing $1.20 favourite (ouch !) at Sale. Given a OK trial since then, but has to be a question mark on how she is going and just as likely something will get backed and rapidly improve to win this. RESULTS: As always in these early 3YO races plenty are backed and always a good chance something is going to step up. Runs 4th but never looks likely TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. TRIFECTA: Race 7: 7(scr),11 / 1,4,7,9,11,12,13/ 1,7,9,11,13 x $5 = 12.50% SCR $2.50 2nd 11-LORD DURANTE W=$5.20 / 3rd 4-VERDANT W=$15.70 / X The (7) is going to start a short priced favourite in this race and really should just about win. Value may come from the (11) who is pretty consistent and just about always around the money. There is a fair bit of speed in this race, so won’t be surprised if something at odds runs on into 2nd, like the (4), (12) or (13), so go wide in a trifecta for 2nd and hope for the best. RESULTS: Favourite gets scratched so wasn't left with much running in the trifecta. SPENT: $50 RETURN: $2.50 NET: -$47.50 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 10-SO BELLA ARELLA, 8-LONGCHAMP BELLE, 7-IMANANA Race 2: 7-LE MANS, 9-BELIEVE ME, 11-QUEST FOR PEACE Race 3: 3-ANAGOLD, 7-PICTURE EDITOR, 5-CRAFTY CRUISER Race 4: 1-ATLANTIC JEWEL, 3-OASIS BLOOM, 6-AVA’S DELIGHT Race 5: 4-SNITZEM, 1-MOMENT OF CHANGE, 2-GENERAL TRUCE Race 6: 8-SUPER COOL, 3-FIORENTE, 2-HAPPY TRAILS Race 7: 7-HIGH ESTEEM, 11-LORD DURANTE, 13-FABRIANO Race 8: 14-RUSAMBO, 7-ELITE ELLE, 6-THAT’S THE ONE |
 |
|
| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-SO BELLA ARELLA 8-LONGCHAMP BELLE 2nd W=$20.00 7-IMANANA |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-LE MANS 9-BELIEVE ME 11-QUEST FOR PEACE |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-ANAGOLD 7-PICTURE EDITOR 3rd W=$3.80 5-CRAFTY CRUISER 2nd W=$9.60 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-ATLANTIC JEWEL 1st W=$1.04 3-OASIS BLOOM 2nd W=$29.90 6-AVA’S DELIGHT Quinella: $2.20 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-SNITZEM 1-MOMENT OF CHANGE 2nd W=$2.30 2-GENERAL TRUCE 3rd W=$9.70 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-SUPER COOL 3-FIORENTE 1st W=$3.20 2-HAPPY TRAILS SCR |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-HIGH ESTEEM SCR 11-LORD DURANTE 2nd W=$5.20 13-FABRIANO |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 14-RUSAMBO 7-ELITE ELLE 6-THAT’S THE ONE |
| RACE 6: DATO TAN CHIN NAM STAKES 1600M GROUP 2 WFA |
| Tips: 8-SUPER COOL 3-FIORENTE 1st W=$3.20 2-HAPPY TRAILS SCR |
| Others: 6 Pace: EVEN Leaders: 5-SPACECRAFT, 9-AJEEB Handy: 2-HAPPY TRAILS, 3-FIORENTE, 7-HORNETS' NEST, 8-SUPER COOL Back: 1-SANGSTER, 4-SEVILLE, 6-LIDARI, 10-BASS STRAIT, 11-DESERT WIZARD Chances: 2-HAPPY TRAILS is as honest as they come and had a super spring 2012 where he went from being a hard luck story perpetually running on for placings, into an on pace WFA winner – and the change in riding tactics to be more positive on him made all the difference. Didn’t really come up or didn’t handle the wet track during Sydney Autumn campaign. 3rd up into this and should just about be ready to produce – and won this race last year when the Melbourne Cup winner had him cold on the home turn. Form going into this race last year was probably better, but there isn’t that much wrong with his form this time in – no luck 1st up when finishing hard and even on pace effort in the Memsie. Gets a few ticks today – 3rd up and ready to produce, inside barrier and likely to race forward in a race with very little speed – and the really big tick – Oliver having his first feature race ride back from suspension. Just a little concerned about the possible wet track here – not sure that is his go, and he may just find one better, but sure to be around the finish. Chance – and don’t underestimate the Oliver returning factor. SCR 3-FIORENTE is the highly rated Melbourne Cup bound Waterhouse runner who made a great first impression down under last spring running 2nd in the Melbourne Cup. Warm up trot and canter during the Autumn and has been bought down here nice and early in the spring for a very traditional Melbourne Cup lead up. Good to see. Had good support 1st up – and was racing against the mighty mare ATLANTIC JEWEL so that is probably a pretty strong sign. Hopelessly unlucky in the Memsie when couldn’t get a clear run, but one of many good runs in that race. Interesting to see where they position from barrier 2- Waterhouse runners normally race on the speed and he wouldn’t want to get caught inside in a slowly run race in a small field, so might race a bit more forward then expected. Huge raps on this one and right in this on 1st up run – guess only concern is if he is going to start a bit short. Strong chance. 1st W=$3.20 6-LIDARI surprised with a dashing effort from last on the turn to knock over some more fancied stable mates at Caulfield. Was previously ridden on speed, but you would think after an impressive win like that, that they will ride him back today. Bought as a stayer, but may end up being a better sprinter miler. Obviously stable thinks he might go on so they are giving him a crack at a Group race today. Drawn barrier 1 and expect they are going to drop back here, so will need swoop around the field and just might need some luck. 2nd up and up 200M. Coming off an impressive win so can’t really write him off and might just go on with it. Chance. 3rd W=$8.30 8-SUPER COOL has gone from strength to strength, and really liked his Autumn campaign, especially when he chased down one that should have outstayed him in the Australian Cup. You have to be a pretty darn good 3YO to win an Australian Cup and looks like he is going to go right on with it this spring. Ran on really well 1st up in the Memsie. Winner here. Has tactical speed, and a bit of WFA dash and this race is always very tactical in small fields around the tight MV bends. Has a long spring ahead so sure there is still plenty of improvement to come, so probably still not at top today. Has a bit of untapped potential about him though. Yet to strike a wet track. Drawn middle, suspect he will settle mid field in clear running and dash around them here at the right time – really looks like he is going to be perfectly placed here in running. And of course stable has split him from his super star stable mate, so obviously they are wanting to win this one. One to beat. 4th W=$2.50 Place: 9-AJEEB is one we really liked in the Memsie and he really didn’t give much of a yelp – was expecting him to dominate the speed there and give a kick in the straight. He did kind of – his kick lasted about 5 metres or so which seriously dented our chances of a collect. Did miss the start there and have to hunt to the lead, so that may have unsettled his routine and interesting to note the gear changes here regards barrier blankets. Run in the Liston was excellent, when he kicked and held the rest of the field and only PDL could come out and run him down. Yet to strike a wet track. Note the blinkers have gone off as well so they may look to settle him a bit more here rather than lead – and if he does lead the (5) will run along with him. Has ability, and suspect may be better than last run, but you would think something will run him down here over the MV 1600M. Will look likely on the turn. Place. 10-BASS STRAIT is a lightly raced 4YO who has shown some ability as a 3YO so will be interesting to see where he gets to this spring. Strong finisher who drops well back and always runs on well – but those types always need luck in running and a fast speed as well. Was entered Ballarat Thurs and kept for this. Fantastic effort 1st up at Sandown and looks like he may go on this spring, but may be a matter of finding the right races for him. Likely to drop back here, around tight MV and will be giving some pretty smart ones a head start so hard to see winning this, but will probably flash home to be around the placings. Place. Sacking: 1-SANGSTER was all the rage in his 3YO season winning the 2011 Victoria Derby and carrying us with him at nice odds. Didn’t really come up in his Autumn 3YO season. Sent back to NZ he seemed to get back to his best form – though have to admit we haven’t seen those races so just working off internet tick boxes. Had the two runs leading into this where hasn’t really produced, but get the impression looking at his form that he prefers a firm track and they were both on wet ground. 3rd up and fitter and must be going OK if they have bought him over for the spring ? Used to have a nice turn of foot as a 3YO, think he is more dour these days and drawn outside and dropping back in a small field doubt that he will have the dash to get into this race. Bit concerned about this track coming up wet too. Watch the market, but as he can mix his form in Australia prefer to see. No 4-SEVILLE is a Lloyd Williams import who has been a bit hit and miss, but was stepping up at the right time last spring in the Turnbull, before getting injured. Didn’t show much 1st up, but is capable of rapid improvement. Likely to drop well back here and not sure the tight turning MV track is going to be his cup of tea. Might improve – but obviously has a few issues and prefer to wait till he gets back to form before getting on. No 5-SPACECRAFT is no stranger to MV and is racking up his Racing Rewards Frequent Starters for going around pretty much every time they race here. Up to start number 15 at MV, and his MV form and MV 1600M form is pretty darn good – he is just about always around the money here. Does find it a bit hard to win these days – and his win here in June was his first win for 3 years, with a stack of placings in between. Been struggling to win much easier races so bit hard to see him really figuring here. Effort at Caulfield wasn’t too bad as raced on speed and they set a furious pace there. Does prefer to be top of the ground – and fair bit of rain coming and probably going to struggle against this lot. Having said that will probably stick on on-speed at odds so maybe worth throwing in the tail end of your First Fours at odds, but that’s about it. No 2nd W=$33.10 7-HORNETS' NEST is a lightly raced country stayer making a surprise appearance in this field. Only had 1 run in the last year so obviously had a few issues and coming off a tailed off run you would want to see him before getting on. Has a win over PDL to his credit at Warrnambool, so that would make him current Melbourne Cup favourite? No? Handles it wet at least if the rains comes, and likely to go forward here from outside barrier, but far out of his depth here. No 11-DESERT WIZARD is a lightly raced and unbeaten 4YO who is taking a major step up in class though. Stable plonked a similar type in the Makybe Diva last week who ran pretty well so looks like they are going to use these early WFA races and why not. You get the feeling the Blackiston stable have a few smart ones coming through and may be worth following this spring. 2nd up, up 200M, likely to drop back, and up in class so hard to get too enthused, but guess you can’t ignore a horse that is undefeated , untapped and on the up. Watch the market, but prefer to see how he lines up here. No. Summary: This is always a pretty tricky race - not that the favourites don’t normally win, quite a few class WFA horses have won this over the years on their way through the spring. More in that it is just about always a small field, often 8 runners or so, often not much speed, around MV, with lots of stayers on the slow path to the Cups – just it always comes down to tactics in this race. So work out where every horse is going to be, and who is going to get the clear run into the race at the right time - just like REKINDLED INTEREST did when he had his birthday here in 2011. Actually this years race is a bit more interesting with a few up and comers like the (6),(10), (11) who could rapidly improve. Speed here should be even, without really running along. 5-SPACECRAFT, the likely leader, which is traditional around the MV 1600M, with 9-AJEEB sitting off him, but just wonder if they might try and ride him a bit more quieter today. 2-HAPPY TRAILS the only other horse really racing handy which is a big plus for his chances. Will 3-FIORENTE race more forward from an inside barrier maybe? So really it comes down to who gets the clear run, out wide, swooping around them into the straight. 8-SUPER COOL seems the most likely candidate to us, great run 1st up, drawn middle, can sit outside these and has the turn of foot needed in a tactical race. 3-FIORENTE the obvious danger, issue might be if he gets cluttered on the rails and blocked for runs again. 2-HAPPY TRAILS the other one likely to be in the finish, especially if racing on speed with Oliver on board. Happy to have a decent win bet on the 8-SUPER COOL and maybe save on exactas with the other two, but it is race where you just pick one and back it with confidence and just see 8-SUPER COOL getting the best run here. Should win. One to risk: - Roughie: 6-LIDARI 3rd W=$8.30 The Key: Small field tactics RESULTS: Once again this race was really, really messy event in a small field, cause of a stop-start tempo. This seems to happen just about every year in this race and there are always lots of hard luck stories of horses held up towards the inside. However, the 8-SUPER COOL, who was drawn outside, and is the one we wanted to be swooping around them late, ends up stuck on the inside - whilst his main rival the 3-FIORENTE gets the clear run late ! This happens every year in this race - you want to be on the one swooping around them on the turn. Funny run from 8-SUPER COOL who lost ground coming to the turn, but was coming again on the line, and the 10-BASS STRAIT is the one to follow finishing on well late and running into a dead end - run this race at any normal track and he probably wins. |
|