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Sportsbet are offering money back if your horse runs 2nd in the Chelmsford Stakes |
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| MOONEE VALLEY : DATO TAN CHIN NAM STAKES - 6th Sept 2014 |
| Track: DEAD(4)- Weather: SUNNY - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Off to Moonee Valley this week, one week early with the Dato Tan and Makybe Diva swapped around this year for some incredibly important reason. Maybe something to do with who was free to pick up the kids from footy training after the races? Not sure. Lovely sunny weather heading into the weekend and this track should stay on the firmer side of DEAD and may even get to GOOD. Rail goes back to TRUE here, it was out 4M last meeting. Worth noting the meeting before that when the rail was TRUE the inside was really, really off and those on the inside had no chance at all, and the racing pattern strongly favoured those swooping around the turn. Normally rail TRUE does favour those running on regardless, so be on top of this and watch out early and see if it is as evident as two meetings ago. Putting wise we seem to have gone with most of the obvious picks here and looks like a day for having solid win bets on $4 chances. Really keen on our top pick in the main race though and plan to have a decent bet on it. RESULTS: Track ends up a GOOD(3) and races pretty evenly, though most of the on pacers tend to win and not that many horses come from well back in the field and get into the finish. Tips flounder a little, but we still manage to make a profit in the Betting Portfolio for the third week in a row. BEST BET : 1-FORETELLER $10 WIN 3rd W=$6.70 Really liking our top pick in the main race of the day. Proven WFA performer, likes a firm track, speed on should suit and eye catching effort 1st up. Won for us 2nd up last spring at odds, so totally playing favourites this year and backing him again, but think he has an awful lot in his favour today and really liking the $6.50 odds on offer. Main bet of the day and very keen, happy to back straight out even though at each way odds. RESULTS: Not really happy with the ride here, ends up at the back of the field and it is just impossible to win from there when you have a tear away leader. Huge effort to run on and finish 3rd though, think if he settles one pair forward in running he goes close to winning. This guy is flying and very under rated, keep following him. BEST WIN: Race 4: 4-WROTHAM HEATH $6 WIN 1st W=$2.70 = $16.20 Import who has had a few preparations down here now and looks like one that might improve this spring. At best rolling on the speed, and there isn’t much in the way of speed, or form, in this field so does look like the one to beat here. Got hopelessly shuffled back here last start inside runners and made really good ground once he got into the clear and probably should have won. Does look the one to beat, one of the few with form in this field and should have every chance on the speed. Odds are around $3 which is starting to get on the shortish side and wouldn’t want to take much shorter than that though. Best win bet, but only putting $6 on him here and then backing him again in the Turf Deli Wonder Bet in a trifecta as well to try and get some more value. RESULTS: Too clever by half here, not a huge fan of backing short priced favourites, so split the bet. Half on the win for a paltry $16 return, but land the trifecta as well for five times what we would have got for a straight out win bet. Smarty pants. BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 1-HIPPOPUS $4 EW X Small ordinary field of stayers here, and didn’t actually mind the run of this one last start, led and fought on well when beaten in similar class. Fitter for the 2 runs in, should lead uncontested here and in a small field might be able to pinch this. Each way at around $8 in a race with not much depth in the field. RESULTS: Leads and is the first one beaten, suggests something not right as very out of character run. BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 7-FEELS LIKE HOME $3 EW X There seems to be a fair bit of speed in this race and a decent sized field so think you might want to be on something sitting just off the speed. This one is 1st up, but went along OK in her first preparation and may have improved over the break. Although she didn’t even run a place, we quite liked the last run at Flemington, she came from well back out wide and put herself into the race like the winner, but started to drift out towards the end of the race. Note a few gear changes here. Think she is worth an each way bet at odds at around $19 in a race where something at odds is likely to pop into the finish. RESULTS: Pulls out at the right time, but either ran out of condition or just finds the 1200M too short. Think she goes OK, keep an eye out for her. QUINELLA: Race 2: 4-ALIYANA, 2-RECKLESS ASSASSIN x $2.50 3rd 4-ALIYANA W=$3.70, 2nd 2-RECKLESS ASSASSIN W=$5.30 QUINELLA: Race 2: 4-ALIYANA, 8-AVERAU x $2.50 3rd 4-ALIYANA W=$3.70 The (4) here is racing really well for the new stable, who seem to have the magic trick of turning horses around. Fitter for the 2 runs in, won 1st up and loomed nicely 2nd up before the leader kicked. Small field here, unlikely to be much speed, and should camp right on the speed and have every chance and looks to one to beat to us. Lets try and get a bit more value in the quinella with the (2) and (8). RESULTS: Sitting pretty 2nd and 3rd behind a long shot leader and was looking good all the way - till the long shot leader kept going. Have tipped and backed REMEMBA HOWE a few times too. Keep following 2-RECKLESS ASSASSIN who was quite strong to the line and is racing extremely well. BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 1-LE BONSIR $2.50 EW X QUINELLA: Race 9: 1,5,9,11,13 x $5 = 50% 2nd 13-TRUST IN A GUST W=$3.90 Last race is wide open and there should be plenty of value in the quinella with lots of chances in an even field. We actually quite like the 1-LE BONSIR who is going to get out to good odds here, form over winter was excellent and he is a MV specialist, 3 times winner here, placed 6 from 9 this track and distance and won this race last year. Considering how well he was racing down the straight, and on unsuitable wet tracks he should be right in this race. Think everyone is dropping off based on poor run last start, but he got used up there to go to the lead on the inside of the short priced favourite who flopped and think you can forgive that run. Drawn to sit on speed and in clear running and if he hasn’t had enough this time in think he is a good chance here at around $13, so back each way and take a quinella with the other main chances. RESULTS: Looking good coming to the home turn, but our runners falter in the straight and even worse the Lay of the Day comes out and stings us. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 9: 3-ATLANTE at around $6 1st W=$9.10 Pretty big field in the last with lots of chances, but we want to avoid this one. Some good form as a 3YO but meeting some decent sprinters here and the inside barrier, around MV in a big field is a big turn off for a horse that is likely to drop back and get cluttered up for runs. Suspect something sitting out in clear running will win this race and happy to take this one on. RESULTS: After a frustrating run of placings in the tips, surprise, surprise, the Lay of the Day gets up and sting us. Funny how they always manage to get out from inside horses at MV when you don't want them to, when you are on them the run never, ever comes. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. Race 4: TRIFECTA: 4 / 6,7,11 / 1,6,7,11,12,13,14 x $5 = 27.77% 1st 4-WROTHAM HEATH W=$2.70 / 2nd 11-PURPLE TIGER W=$10.80 / 3rd 12-CLEAR DIRECTION W=$16.60 TRIFECTA = $254.30 = $70.60 We have already mentioned the 4-WROTHAM HEATH as our Best Win bet, just a little worried he is going to start a bit on the short side, so instead lets try and get a trifecta in a largish field which should pay OK. The (6) and the (11) seem to be the main dangers, but just got a feeling the legendary non winner 7-ANUDJAWUN might do something as well today, 3rd up and out to a suitable trip. So take them for 2nd and go wide for 3rd and hope something at odds jumps into the placings to blow the dividend out. RESULTS: Far too clever there, but much prefer to take a trifecta for a nice collect than back a short priced favourite. Grand stager 7-ANUDJAWUN runs home very well for 4th too at W=$25.80 so we were spot on with this bet. First Four paid a whopping $4046 for those who like to be really exotic. SPENT: $50 RETURN: $86.80 NET: $+36.80 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 1-HIPPOPUS, 2-UNCHAIN MY HEART, 7-COUNT ENCOSTA Race 2: 4-ALIYANA, 2-RECKLESS ASSASSIN, 8-AVERAU Race 3: 9-WAR POINT, 3-HAWKING, 11-SOPHIE’S FINALE Race 4: 4-WROTHAM HEATH, 11-PURPLE TIGER, 6-VINTAGE LAD Race 5: 1-LANKAN RUPEE, 9-ELOPING, 6-CAUTHEN Race 6: 2-SABATINI, 7-FEELS LIKE HOME, 1-LONDON LOLLY Race 7: 1-FORETELLER, 6-PAKAL , 4-THE CLEANER Race 8: 12-PYRROLIC, 10-ST JEAN, 4-HENWOOD Race 9: 1-LE BONSIR, 11-SOLSAY, 9-LION OF BELFORT |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-HIPPOPUS 2-UNCHAIN MY HEART 7-COUNT ENCOSTA 2nd W=$5.60 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-ALIYANA 3rd W=$3.70 2-RECKLESS ASSASSIN 2nd W=$5.30 8-AVERAU |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-WAR POINT 2nd W=$7.00 3-HAWKING 11-SOPHIE’S FINALE |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-WROTHAM HEATH 1st W=$2.70 11-PURPLE TIGER 2nd W=$10.80 6-VINTAGE LAD Quinella: $13.70 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-LANKAN RUPEE 2nd W=$1.30 9-ELOPING 3rd W=$5.90 6-CAUTHEN |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-SABATINI SCR 7-FEELS LIKE HOME 1-LONDON LOLLY |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-FORETELLER 3rd W=$6.70 6-PAKAL 4-THE CLEANER 1st W=$4.30 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-PYRROLIC 2nd W=$5.50 10-ST JEAN 1st W=$3.50 4-HENWOOD Quinella: $8.10 |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-LE BONSIR 11-SOLSAY 9-LION OF BELFORT |
| RACE 7: DATO TAN CHIN NAM STAKES GROUP 2 1600M WFA |
| Tips: 1-FORETELLER 3rd W=$6.70 6-PAKAL 4-THE CLEANER 1st W=$4.30 |
| Others: 9 Pace: FAST Leaders : 4-THE CLEANER (out to clear lead) Handy : 5-MOURINHO, 6-PAKAL, 7-LIDARI, 8-HVASSTAN, 9-STAR ROLLING Back : 1-FORETELLER, 2-THE OFFER, 3-CRACKERJACK KING, 10-GRIS CARO, 11-FOUNDRY Chances: 1-FORETELLER is one we are surprised to see here, thought they would have left him for the Makybe Diva next week on the bigger Flemington track, a race he won last year. Fact that they are racing him here would suggest they are seriously aiming towards the Cox Plate and he ran a huge race to run 4th in that race last year at odds. (currently $65 on Betfair at the moment if you are so inclined). Always had a lot of time for this one, and think he is under rated, he keeps wining and getting into the finish of good races at odds. Funny he has had 43 starts, but still not sure we have seen the best of him and he is one of the most consistent WFA horses around at the moment. Plenty to like about him today. He prefers firm tracks. He won 2nd up last spring coming off a good 1st up run, and although he was well backed 1st up at Caulfield he just finds the 1400M a bit too short, but he was coming home with gusto the last bit and it was a really good run. Extra distance suits today, as does the speed on and he is drawn out to come into the race. Probably didn’t quite race to his best during the Autumn, but really liked the 1st up run in the Lawrence. We backed him last spring to win the Makybe Diva and think his 1st up run this year was just as good. Really keen on him today – definitely one to beat for us and lovely the $6 on offer. Strong chance. 3rd W=$6.70 4-THE CLEANER is a dashing, tear away front runner with a growing legion of fans, he tears out to a clear lead and is as tough as anything. Has solid race fitness on his side, and is up against a lot of horses 1st up or early in their preparation, so he is going to give them a very solid work out indeed here. Best form is on wet tracks, but really, not that much wrong with his dry track form either. Yet to be unplaced at MV and 7 wins form 12 starts over the 1600M is a pretty splish record. Class rise is obviously the test here up to WFA, but he has been carrying big weights in handicaps and winning. This is definitely a winnable race for him, around tight turning MV, dashing in the lead, race fitness, up against a field still looking at later spring targets. He is going to make this race very interesting and really just a matter of whether something with a bit more class grinds him down the last little bit with the rail TRUE. But think he is going to be in this for a long, long way and is a strong chance. Go well. 1st W=$4.30 6-PAKAL is an import who has had a few seasons out here now. Form last spring was sensational when he was just struggling to get into the field in better races, and worth noting he is nominated for everything and anything this year. Best run last spring was actually in the Naturalism on a dynamite leaders track where he was one of the few to make any sort of ground on the day, and class win with weight in the Cranbourne Cup. Probably didn’t go quite as well as expected in two autumn runs, but he wasn’t that far off them. 1st up over the 1600M here, but note he won 1st up last spring over the same distance by 6 lengths. Keep a close eye on the betting market on this one, think the speed on here is going to suit him, and he can sit just forward of mid field and not give the leader too much of a head start here. Suspect he is one that is going to go on this spring and will win a decent race. Strong chance. 9-STAR ROLLING has always had a heap of potential and a huge spruik on him from the stable, so was surprised at the odds he went around 1st up. Pretty sure the stable said post race they thought he was the best horse of last spring, which raised a few eyebrows. Last spring he was chasing and struggling to get into races, and from memory had a set back which put him behind schedule. Autumn form was pretty solid, and St George Stakes form looks pretty strong through FIORENTE. Settled on speed 1st up and that is where you want to be in these early WFA races. He is pretty tough rolling on the speed and you just get the impression he will go on this spring, with only the 12 starts, this should be the campaign when he puts it all togethers. There are a few here who can sit handy behind the tear away leader , and don’t think the fast speed will phase this one at all. WFA winner coming into this, sitting on speed and good chance in this. Not sure he is value at the odds, but solid chance regardless. Chance. Place: 5-MOURINHO does have a nasty habit of popping up at long odds in his races, particularly at MV where he has now won 4 races, but thankfully we tipped him last start as he has stung us a few times before. He can mix his form a bit, so he can be a bit hard to catch, but seems to save his best for MV and rolling on the speed. Box seated perfectly here last start in a field full of backmarkers. Rise to WFA is another step up, but this isn’t a overly strongly WFA event. Question is more about how he copes with the (4) tearing along in the lead, cause he is going to be sitting next in line and will have to be the one to bring the field up to him. Think he is going pretty well and he may even improve further this time in, but probably just preferring place today against these. Place. 2nd W=$15.40 7-LIDARI is another import, but does appear to be better as a miler than over the longer distances, though he is entered in everything this spring. Won 1st up last spring and then was pretty unlucky in this race last year when he got held up at a crucial stage on the home turn, which often happens in this race. Did win the Blamey 2nd up over 1600M last Autumn, but form tapered off when he was sent up to Sydney and struck wet tracks in the Autumn. Solid on pace effort 1st up here, and he can race back or race forward so listen out for racing pattern for this one as to where they are going to settle him today. Well held by the (9) last start under the same conditions. He is going to settle in clear running just off the speed here and should have every chance, he is capable enough on his day so probably some sort of rough chance in this, but probably just tending towards others. Don’t think he is value at the $6.50 at the moment. Rough only 4th W=$9.20 Sacking: 2-THE OFFER is an import who has been given plenty of time to mature and go through his grades out here. 6YO with only 17 starts and current Melbourne Cup favourite.. Thrashed them in the Ballarat Cup last year on a wet track, and went up a notch at the end of Autumn in Sydney with 3 consecutive staying wins – though note they were also all on wet tracks. Had a few trials to get ready for this, but so far he has been a handicap stayer rather than a WFA horse and doubt he is going to be that forward with big spring targets ahead. He is likely to drop well back here, and suspect with the (4) tearing along in the lead he may be one that will struggle to keep in touch. Prefer later 3-CRACKERJACK KING is an import that we have seen very little of, so hard to line up based on one 1200M run down the straight. Note the stewards comments from last start – coming off a long injury lay off and jockey thought he did not feel right in this action, not a great sign for plonking your hard earned on. 7YO with only 11 starts, but can’t really have till we see something meaningful. No 8-HVASSTAN is one who is pretty hard to catch and really hasn’t got back to his 3YO spring form where he was top notch. Doesn’t win out of turn and does probably prefer a bit of give in the ground – but not too much. Surprised with very forward showing here 1st up and he poked up on the rails like the winner before his condition gave out. Best rolling on the speed, and not sure how he is going to handle the tear away leader here, think he prefers a nicer gentler race and for everyone to play nice. WFA class here is the test, and would prefer to let him go around here today. No 10-GRIS CARO is a lightly raced one from the Adelaide stable who had ALCOPOP and he ran well in this race a few times. Ran 2nd here behind the (5) in the JRA Cup last spring in his 1st Australian preparation. Given the full year off and often these imports go better once they have had a campaign and some time to relax by the pool. Didn’t do much 1st up and worth noting he didn’t get much in the way of betting support either. He is hard to line up, bit of an unknown in this and he might run better than expected, but more of a wait and see proposition, so not today. No 11-FOUNDRY is a Williams/Hickmott stable runner who churn out these international Cup hopefuls at a rapid rate - sure there is a secret factory somewhere. Very impressive at 1st Australian start during the Autumn, and has high hopes for this spring. Started favourite 1st up here 2 weeks back and did absolutely nothing, comments were that he looked like he needed the run. Fast speed on here might suit this one and he might come home hard and late, but probably want to watch the betting market. Hard to be enthused off poor 1st up run, but that run was one of those “too good to be true” runs which horses can often bounce back quickly from. Leaving out today, just need to see him again, but he might do something and jump on board if you are a true believer. Passing. Summary: This is going to be a very interesting race, quite a few who might go onto better things this spring, a race fit tear away leader, it is going to be a great race to watch. Interestingly, the race has been a total mess a few times in the last few years, with a slow dawdling pace in an early WFA race around MV meaning there were blocked runs and hard luck stories all over place. Going to be a different story this year with 4-THE CLEANER tearing along in the lead and stringing the field out. So speed is fast, with 4-THE CLEANER tearing along in the lead by a clear margin, and then there are quite a few who can settle handy behind him, 5-MOURINHO, 7-LIDARI, 9-STAR ROLLING the most obvious picks. With a tear away leader you never want to drop out the back of the field and give them too much of a head start, and some of the more staying types might get all out of their racing rhythm trying to keep up here. Actually really keen on 1-FORETELLER today, probably doesn’t want to get too far back, but think the speed will suit and don’t think chasing hard for a long period will phase him. Is proven at WFA, firm track, won 2nd up last spring, eye catching 1st up - heaps to like about him. 6-PAKAL suspect is going to do something fresh and again think he might like the speed on here, and not going to underestimate the leader 4-THE CLEANER with race fitness on his side, he is a super tough front runner. 9-STAR ROLLING the only other danger and should be tough enough to keep the leader in his sights. But very keen on the 1-FORETELLER and going to have a decent bet at the $6 or so on offer. One to risk: 7-LIDARI 4th W=$9.20 Roughie: 5-MOURINHO 2nd W=$15.40 The Key: Who can handle the fast speed from tear away leader? RESULTS: Nothing more exciting than a tear away leader and the 4-THE CLEANER races into the Cox Plate with a WFA win. Huge fan of 1-FORETELLER who settles out last and is given no hope, but runs home well to run 3rd. He is flying - keep following him. 5-MOURINHO toughs it out really well on speed and was closing on the winner on the line, looks like he is going to be in for a really good preparation. |
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