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MOONEE VALLEY : DATO TAN CHIN NAM STAKES - 10th Sept 2011
Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE

Betting Portfolio ($50):
Been a lovely sunshine and fun times weather week in Melbourne, but unfortunately there is a major cold spell about to hit us for the weekend. Showers and hail forecast Friday and Saturday, so although the current official rating is a DEAD(4) we are doing the form for a dead to slow track. Look for horses who like a bit of give in the ground.

Last meeting here 20/08/2011 the rail was out 5M and it was one of the most biased tracks we have seen. The winners either led, or sat on the rails behind the leader, and everything that pulled out wide, full of momentum, for a run was suddenly going backwards. That often happens when the rail is out at MV – especially at the night meetings. Just be wary of those who were caught wide last start at MV and may pay to forgive their runs. We already had LONE ROCK come out and win last week after being in the wrong part of the track at that MV meeting. These include Race 1:2-TRIPLE ASSET, Race 2 : 2-THE NEW BOY, Race 4: 9-BEL SHOES, Race 8:4-CHARLIES QUEEN and Race 9:9-KING CARNAGE.

However, today is a different kettle of fish, when the rail goes back to the TRUE at Moonee Valley the racing pattern just about always advantages those swooping out wide around the turn and running on. It can often be quite difficult to lead all the way when the rail is TRUE. So look for those coming around them on the turn and running on with the MV camber.

Good chance this meeting is going to be torn apart by scratchings with a fair bit of rain around. We have pushed the selections towards those with MV form and wet track form as we can hear the rain coming down at the moment.

RESULTS : Track strongly favours those swooping out wide on the track around the turn (as predicted). Despite the rail being TRUE there were a few caught up for runs back in the pack, and a few races with chopping and changing pace which meant horses weren't ridden to their normal pattern. Tips go along just OK, but the Betting Portfolio has a nice collect on the Poor Man's Quaddie - the All Up Place bet. The Lay of the Day finally flops, but instead our One To Risk in the main race gets up and wins, so we just can't get a break at the moment with those bets. 


BEST EACH WAY : Race 8: 1-LADY LYNETTE $5 WIN, $15 PLACE 3rd W=$6.60, P=$1.80 = 15 x 1.80 = $27
Super honest mare who is fitter for the 2 runs in and in both those runs she drew shocking barriers and was forced to drop back, and both runs put in an eye catcher flying home late and chasing hard. Placed 8 from 9 over the 1600M, placed 5 from 8 at MV and yet to miss a place over the MV 1600M in 4 starts. Handles it wet too. Ran 3rd in this race last year, unlucky not to win here at a MV night meeting in March and just always thereabouts in this class. Suited by the set weight scale, there isn’t much speed in here and today she draws a barrier and she will sit on the speed and put herself into the race. Main problem is there are two very smart in form ones against her, the (9) and the (7), but think she represents a pretty solid each way bet and both of them will be standing her a start here coming to the turn. So back each way, and more the place.
RESULTS : Genuine, honest as ever performance from this one. Surprisingly she was actually giving her two main rivals, the 7-PINKER PINKER and the 9-KING'S ROSE a start around the turn after being badly held up for runs in the pack. She actually put in a burst and looked like she was going to win, but died on her run and suspect the other two are a bit classier and a bit stronger at the end of a mile. Still would have been nice to see what she could have done with a softer sit and getting a kick on these ones.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 6-LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT $5 EW X
This one was hopelessly unlucky last start when was searching for runs for the majority of the straight and no doubt should have won. Strung together a few wins on end during late last year and seems to be one on the way up. Drawn out, but can go forward here and there isn’t much speed in this race, so should be sitting right on the speed and present at the right time. The majority of this field is going nowhere fast. Each way.
RESULTS : From an outside barrier, despite there being not much pace in this race, never gets in and is caught 3 wide all the way. Has to make a very wide, and a very tough run to get into the race before the home turn, but is a spent force. Forgive this run and follow up again last start.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 9-BEL SHOES $4 WIN 3rd W=$10.40
QUINELLA : Race 4 : 9-BEL SHOES # 3,5,7,11 x $1.50 = $6 3rd 9-BEL SHOES W=$10.40 # 1st 7-IRISH DREAM W=$4.30, 2nd 3-RUE MAPLE W=$4.20
This one put in a pretty good run 1st up when she was wide, which definitely wasn’t the place to be and fought on well in the wrong part of the track. MV form is excellent, wet track form is excellent should be fitter for the run and stays at the same distance and should lob on speed here and be in this for a long way. Looks a nice each way bet and should be some value in the quinella with the main dangers. The (3) hasn’t has much luck, has been competitive in all her races and MV and wet track form is excellent. The (7), like the (9) was in the wrong part of the track last start and was one of the few to come wide around the turn and be in the finish – likely to start favourite, but a slow track is a major negative for this one. Around odds of $10 currently each way for the (9) in this.
RESULTS : Lobs on the speed and goes along OK, but the other two have her cover here. Unfortunately the trick of taking each way horses in quinellas for a value collect, rather than just backing them the place doesn't seem to be working this year as we are starting to rack up a few thirds instead of seconds.

BEST ROUGH : Race 2: 11-ROCK MUSCIAN $2.50 EW SCR $5
Might as well have a bit of a play bet on an outsider of the field in the second race. Form doesn’t look that flash at first glance, still a maiden. But take out last start when didn’t handle the heavy track. Start before that narrowly beaten by HURRIYET who went really well in town the start after (and goes around in the Guineas in Adel today if you want to have an interstate bet). Start before that was beaten by BARON DOURO who came out and won at Sandown next start, and beat the (4), (5) and (9) who are also going around in this race. Think that means his form is competitive with these and is probably worth a each way play bet at odds. Currently around $41 on TAB Fixed Odds.

LAY OF THE DAY :Race 2 : 1- DO YOU THINK at around $2.35 8th at $3.10
OK let’s see if we can make it 4 winners in 5 weeks with the horse we DON’T think can win. Sydney visitor who has solid form up there, but impossible to tell how he is travelling from 1st up run when there was about 10 of them fighting out the placings. Was on the wrong leg in that race, and has had a hit out here at MV during the week. But the main reason why we want to lay him is because he is absolutely no relation to SO YOU THINK at all , in fact his mother is CHICKENS, which is just a plain silly name and we can’t back a horse who dam has a silly name. Sorry. Almost certain his name affects his odds. 2nd up, stepping up 300M, giving weight to a few who could be on the improve and hitting a wet track for the 1st time so looks too short for us. No
RESULTS : Finally we land a scalp on the Lay of The Day !. Instead the One To Risk in the main race gets up and wins... Oops....This one looms about the 600M like he is going to run into the race, but does nothing and whisper is that he is going to be renamed "MY MUMMA IS A CHICKEN".


TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
ALL UP PLACE :
PLACE : Race 3: 10-BUZZWIN 3rd P=$2.10
PLACE : Race 4: 9-BEL SHOES 3rd P=$2.50
PLACE : Race 8: 1-LADY LYNETTE 3rd P=$1.80
PLACE Race 9: 4-STANZOUT 3rd P=$3.10
x $5 = $5 = 5 x 2.10 x 2.5 x 1.80 x 3.10 = $146.50
Let’s see if we can build a nice little collect just with a simple all up place bet on race fit, on pace horses that are likely to handle the wet ground at each way odds. The (10) in Race 3 is going along well and will race handy, the (9) should be thereabouts in Race 4, we really like the (1) in Race 8 each way and coming into the last a lot are either 1st up or don’t handle the wet track so the (4) looks a solid bet to be in the finish somewhere. Probably looking at around $60 per $1 unit if these comes in.
RESULTS : Nice collect ! As pointed out by one of our facebook fans - this was indeed the Poor Man's Quaddie. All Up Place bet, and not only did they all finished 3rd, they all finished well beaten and fading 3rds, hanging on by the barest of nostril hairs. So yes, we were extremely lucky, but a collect is a collect. All our results are always calculated based on Victorian TAB dividends for official record keeping, but there was better value for this bet through the corporate bookmakers such as IAS.

SPENT : $50
RETURN : $178.50
NET : $+128.50



The Tips:

Race 1: 5-EMERALD DOWNS, 8-SHARNEE ROSE, 11-TRANQUERA
Race 2: 9-WHISPER DOWNS, 11-ROCK MUSCIAN, 6-COSTLY COMMITMENT
Race 3: 10-BUZZWIN, 6-COUNTCOOL, 7-GREAT PLAYER
Race 4: 9-BEL SHOES, 3-RUE MAPLE, 7-IRISH DREAM
Race 5: 6-LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT, 1-PHILDA, 14-ISHANT
Race 6: 8-KULGRINDA, 9-SATIN SHOES, 2-ATOMIC FORCE
Race 7: 1-WHOBEGOTYOU, 4-ALCOPOP, 5-RED COLOSSUS
Race 8: 1-LADY LYNETTE, 9-KING’S ROSE, 7-PINKER PINKER
Race 9: 10-SPIRITED EAGLE, 4-STANZOUT, 9-KING CARNAGE


RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
5-EMERALD DOWNS
8-SHARNEE ROSE 2nd W=$10.00
11-TRANQUERA

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
9-WHISPER DOWNS 1st W=$10.60
11-ROCK MUSCIAN SCR
6-COSTLY COMMITMENT 3rd W=$9.10

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
10-BUZZWIN 3rd W=$8.60
6-COUNTCOOL
7-GREAT PLAYER SCR

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
9-BEL SHOES 3rd W=$10.40
3-RUE MAPLE 2nd W=$4.20
7-IRISH DREAM 1st W=$4.30

Quinella : $8.90
Trifecta : $115.30

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
6-LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT
1-PHILDA
14-ISHANT 3rd W=$9.50

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
8-KULGRINDA
9-SATIN SHOES
2-ATOMIC FORCE 3rd W=$7.90

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
1-WHOBEGOTYOU 3rd W=$1.70
4-ALCOPOP 2nd W=$12.60
5-RED COLOSSUS

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
1-LADY LYNETTE 3rd W=$6.60
9-KING’S ROSE 1st W=$2.60
7-PINKER PINKER 2nd W=$3.80

Quinella : $4.30
Trifecta : $38.40

RACE 9: RESULTS
Tips:
10-SPIRITED EAGLE
4-STANZOUT 3rd W=$15.80
9-KING CARNAGE


RACE 7: DATO TAN CHIN NAM STAKES 1600M GROUP 2 WFA
Tips:
1-WHOBEGOTYOU 3rd W=$1.70
4-ALCOPOP 2nd W=$12.60
5-RED COLOSSUS

Others: 7

Pace: SLOW
Leaders : 7-SPACECRAFT
Handy : 5-RED COLOSSUS, 6-MAGICAL PEARL, 8-CABEZA
Back : 1-WHOBEGOTYOU, 2-UNUSUAL SUSPECT, 3-LINTON, 4-ALCOPOP, 9-REKINDLED INTEREST, 10-DOMESKY

Chances:
1-WHOBEGOTYOU needs no introduction, has his own nickname WHOBE, or the WHOSTER and is pretty much the best 1400M-1600M horse going around in Australia at the moment. We used to knock him a bit, cause he did have habit of getting too far back and running on late for 2nd and 3rds, but since we have worked him out in the last year or so he is one of our Pin Ups and regularly gets used when we play Pin The Tail on the WFA Star. He is good – really good – and he is predictable, so you can back him with confidence in the right conditions. His best form is fresh – in the first couple of runs in. His best form is the 1400M to 1600M range. His best form is in small WFA fields when he can quickly whip around them and get a clear run – big fields and handicaps he tends to strike trouble and not have much luck. Little bit of give in the ground is a plus. 5 wins from 6 starts over 1600M. 5 wins from 7 starts at MV. 3 from 3 over the MV 1600M and looking to win this race for the 3rd year in a row. Thought he was a dead set sure thing 1st up and couldn’t believe the odds he got out to against a pretty substandard field (thank you LIGHTS OF HEAVEN fans - much appreciated..) . Was a great ride from Oliver that day, they had been leading and winning and there wasn’t much pace so he set him alight early and he actually probably hit the lead around the 200M mark - which is probably the earliest he has hit the lead in his races from memory. He was stopping on the line, but had been used up to over come the track pattern so that was excusable. There are a few on the way up in this field, so he might get more of a fight this time, but sitting off them on a track favouring runners on obviously looks the one to beat. Will be funny if he starts shorter than $2.50 here in a slightly harder field than last start. One to beat. 3rd W=$1.70

4-ALCOPOP is one we have a bit of time for and does have a stack of ability when right. Probably a little under rated and forgotten about since that sterling upward spiral Spring of 2009. He has a fantastic finishing burst and can run the finishing sectionals to be a WFA star. Fitter for the 2 runs in, and the last win was really good because it is just about always a dynamite leader’s track at Morphetville these days. Ran a really good race here at MV 3rd up last spring over 2040M when he finished on very strongly. Did beat the (1) last time they met in the Caulfield Stakes last year, when he was extremely impressive running home against the super star. However, WHOBE was ridden differently that day, ridden close to the lead to try and be a winning chance which bought him undone. Still – this one is very , very capable and could cause an upset. Main worry here is how much rain we get, on a dry track would rate him a solid upset chance here, but if the track gets to the worse side of SLOW he does tend to flounder a little. Chance. 2nd W=$12.60

5-RED COLOSSUS is one with a bit of upside who we suspect is going to be a factor this spring. Lightly raced, good win/place strike rate, bit of potential. Really liked the run 1st up when had to switch across heels and most of the field, and finished home strongly once in the clear. Meeting these at set weights WFA is probably the issue, but he is going to be very competitive in the handicaps when they come around. He is another who may just struggle if the track gets seriously wet. Suspect he might settle a little closer to the lead here in a small field with not much speed. Rough chance and keep following him through spring regardless. Rough.

7-SPACECRAFT is still fairly lightly raced and does have a bit of ability. Looked the goods as a 3YO when ran a flashing 2nd in the AAMI Vase here, so it was an interesting choice not to progress with him and keep him as a miler. Onto this third stable. Won 3 from 4 at MV and never missed a place is an impressive record. 2nd up and up 200M and wasn’t far from the (4) last start when he did have every chance. Won on this day last year. He will probably go forward here and it should be a soft lead in a small field with not much speed and he does have some ability on his day. Guess that makes him the best rough chance in this. Rough.

Place:
10-DOMESKY is another on the way up and we have him Black Booked as one to follow this spring. Excellent run 1st up when was really flying towards the end of the race, and he has been competitive in some of the B grade 3YO races last spring and Autumn. Suspect he is going to go on this spring. He was scratched from Caulfield 2 weeks ago – not sure what for and obviously this is a big challenge stepping up to WFA. Likely to drop well back here as well. Probably not today, but wouldn’t rule him out of the First Fours if you want a collect in a small field. Rough place.

Sacking:
2-UNUSUAL SUSPECT is an OS import and find it impossible to line these ones up. Had a whopping 56 starts and is an 8YO so it does seem rather late in life to be starting afresh in the Lucky Country. Good luck to you young fella, but we will only be watching you run around today. No 4th W=$63.30

3-LINTON did his normal trick of running on just a little 1st up when sucked in the usual crowd seeking those “Good Melbourne Cup” trials, but unfortunately the TAB don’t pay out on a solid, well beaten 7th anymore. Has had a barrier trial since, so maybe that might sharpen him up. We are still a little unconvinced by this one - is held in very high opinion by the stable, and has been given plenty of time to develop so we might see the best of him this spring. Despite being competitive in good races he really hasn’t gone on with the boom from his early 3YO days. He has been thereabouts, without really doing anything outstanding. If the track gets worse side of SLOW that would probably be an issue for this one. Avoiding him till he does something a bit special. Passing.

6-MAGICAL PEARL is a solid miler who has great form in Adel, but just does not measure up when he comes over here. Had over 10 starts in Melbourne and only won the once which was a restricted race and has had every opportunity in most of those runs. He is competitive in the mile handicaps and did run 4th in this race in 2009 behind the (1). Will race handy in a race with not much speed, he does handle it wet and a lot of these do not, so probably won’t be very far away - but very hard to get enthused. No.

8-CABEZA is an OK performer who is jumping a few grades here into a feature WFA mile. Fitter for the 2 runs in and form from last race is looking strong. Just thought he had every chance last start – he actually got the box seat rails position which they were all winning from that day, so actually expected a lot more from him. Probably prefers a track on the firmer side too. No.

9-REKINDLED INTEREST is pretty much heading towards D-Day rather rapidly. Famous for his flashy finishes for a well beaten 3rd to 5th, it is time for him to step up. Fitter for the 2 runs in, but stepping up in distance another 200M again today.1st up run was excellent when he ran on with his usual brilliance – for 2nd. Then went forward at Caulfield and whacked on OK, but obviously the finishing burst just wasn’t there. Wasn’t beaten that far against two pretty good horses, but really wanted to see him position handy, and go ping and finish like he normally does and show he has that bit of brilliance to do something special. You would suspect today they will let him drop back again today as last start didn’t really seem to work, and the track should favour those swooping. Most recent win was here in the AAMI Vase. However, we have followed this one fairly closely through last spring, and think we are ready to drop off today. He is a real worry if the rains come, he is one that definitely wants it firm. We have decided to drop off him until he shows he is a genuine contender, so yes we are going to make him the One To Risk. This will no doubt cause a twinkle in the eye of those who want to back him considering our Lays of the Day keep on winning. Risking. 1st W=$6.20

Summary: Actually a fairly interesting race, there are a few here with some upside who might step up a level – the (5), (9) and (10), though we think the (9) has had enough chances for now. What happens with the weather is going to have a major impact here – quite a few of these are a bit dubious if we get a genuine SLOW track – the (3), (4), (5) and (9), and there is a bit of rain forecast.

Small WFA field, could be a dawdle with really not much in the way of speed. The 7-SPACECRAFT likely to lead, with the 5-RED COLOSSUS, 6-MAGICAL PEARL, 8-CABEZA sitting behind him but cannot imagine they are going to go very quickly at all.

Really 1-WHOBEGOTYOU should win here, his record in these races is simply outstanding. Will drop back, the speed won’t be great so the jockey will have to be aware to get moving early and swoop on the home turn, but at WFA he should have this lot covered. The likely wet track is going to be another plus, quite a few of these are questionable on genuine SLOW ground and he goes through it just fine. Was more confident last start though – which is funny, cause he is probably going to start a lot shorter today. Think the 4-ALCOPOP and the 5-RED COLOSSUS are both some chance though. The (4) does have the brilliant turn of foot to win these sort of races, just really needs a dry track, and suspect the (5) is going to step up here and chase hard and is on improve. Maybe quinellas with the favourite and these two is the way to go. Let’s hope WHOBE can make it a three-peat, he is one you can back with confidence and obviously has a bit of a following with the punters.

One to risk: 9-REKINDLED INTEREST 1st W=$6.20
Roughie: 7-SPACECRAFT

The Key: Quality proven WFA horses win the WFA races. How wet is this track going to be ?

RESULTS : Stop start speed threw a lot of these off their game, and the one we potted as the One To Risk, 9-REKINDLED INTEREST just sat at the back of them biding his time and come over the top to win. Still no regrets - to be honest we reckon 9-REKINDLED INTEREST had his birthday today, pretty much everything went right and still not that keen to be on him next start. 1-WHOBEGOTYOU caught up in the pack and took a while to get clear, and that is just not the way to ride him so definitely think you can excuse that run. Did start silly odds though in what was almost certainly a harder field than his 1st up win. The one we really like is 4-ALCOPOP, still think he is vastly under rated, he has met WHOBE twice now and beaten him both times (even though WHOBE has had excuses in those runs) - but you would almost swear they weren't that fussed about winning on him today. Jockey rode a super quiet race, out the back, he could have got moving earlier and wider around the turn, but kept waiting and really it was almost like a trial hit out to the line. Keep following him.




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