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FLEMINGTON : DERBY DAY - 3RD NOV 2007

Track: DEAD - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE

Betting Portfolio ($100): Track is currently rated GOOD, but showers are forecast, exactly how much rain we are going to get is a bit hard to know, but major rain is due sometime Saturday, with a dribble or two before that. Well known that Derby Day often favours those racing on the speed, with the best ground up against the fence as they move the rail back in from previous meetings. This meeting last year was a dynamite leader’s track, and the 1st meeting back here in Sept after the track renovation when the rail was TRUE also favoured on pacers. So watch the early races carefully, definitely pay extra special loving attention to those drawn inside barriers and watch out for the on pacers. Be prepared to switch to wet trackers if the rain comes – we have included extra comments for wet track form. Down the straight there is usually little between the inside/outside on this day, but you will want to be on the outside rail for the rest of the week. Watch the penetrometer reading to see how the outside lines up – its’ changed over night with the rain. Best betting day of the year, so bet with confidence and take doubles through the main chances in each race. RESULTS : Tricky old track, looks like it's going to be the normal on pacers for the 1st 4 races, then suddenly it switches and they are all racing off the rail and swooping !! Quite bizarre. Guess we call that even. BEST BET : Race 7: 3-VILLAIN $20 WIN 4th W=$4.10 Seems to have dropped out of favour in this race, pretty much a race in two between this one and the (1), just think back to Flem he is going to show his explosive winning burst again and come over the top of them. RESULTS : Ridden more forward than usual, looms up at the top of the straight like he has business to do, and doesn't finish it off. Every chance. BEST EACH WAY : Race 8: 4-LIKE IT IS $10 EW Super consistent on pacer when strikes form, rate her a genuine chance of toppling the short priced favourite, the (1), especially if the track is favouring on pacers. RESULTS : Track is favouring runners on, so short priced favourite is a good thing (see detailed form comment), but still very disappointing. BEST EACH WAY : Race 6: 4-ZIPPING $5 EW 3rd W=$10.20, P=$3.10 = $15.50 Looking for an upset in the Mackinnon with a few that have been disappointing and think this one is ready to fire before Tues. RESULTS: Runs on very very well too late, inquiry into run (who would've thought that was possible with Nikolic riding on a Williams horse?? - couldn't see that coming) QUINELLA : Race 3: 7-SENTIRE, 8-ZAVITE, 11-PACINO boxed x $5 = $15 Fair few chances in Race 3, let’s be ambitious and try and snare a value quinella – value comes with the (7) whose two runs in have been excellent and good rough chance in this. RESULTS : 7-SENTIRE runs on well for 4th and keep following, other two do not run out distance on fast pace. QUADRELLA : Races 7,8,9,10 : 1,3 / 1,4 / 2,6,8,9,12 / 5,8,13 x 50 cents = $30 3rd 3-MARCHING W=$2.90 / 1st 1-DIVINE MADONNA W=$1.80 / 1st 8-SWICK W=$8.50 / 1st 13-COUNT TO ZERO W=$13.20 Think we can snare the quaddie here, with just the obvious 2 picks in the first 2 legs and value if the short priced favourite gets beaten in Race 8. Go wide in the 3rd leg, and although the (8) does stand out in the last, throw in a few others to try and be running for a decent collect. RESULTS : Urrggh...That was gettable. Quaddie pays a tidy $1600 (for $1), we get the last 3 legs - including the trick value winner in the last leg in only 3 picks, but drop off the 3rd selection in the tips in the first leg which wins. Oh the pain..the pain... TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more. WIN BET : Race 5: 9-BEL MER x $5 2nd W=$16.80 There is not much speed in this race, and although the short priced favourite should win, probably more fun to have something on this one which should scoot to the lead and might prove hard to run down. RESULTS: Scoots to the lead, looks a danger of pinching it just after the 200M mark, but not good enough. Quinella with the short priced favourite ($11.40), probably a smarter bet with benefit of hindsight. SPENT : $100 RETURN : $15.50 NET : $-84.50

The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YOs. ADMIRE THE ROSES. Race 2: 10-MOTONARI, 6-MOMENT OF TRUTH, 12-ZACROONA Race 3: 7-SENTIRE, 8-ZAVITE, 11-PACINO Race 4: 9-DIANA’S SECRET, 5-ABSOLUTE GLAM, 3-EXTENSION OF TIME Race 5: 1-WEEKEND HUSSLER, 9-BEL MER, 6-SHREWD RHYTHM Race 6: 4-ZIPPING, 14-DEVIL MOON, 10-HARADASUN Race 7: 3-VILLAIN, 1-MARCHING, 4-KIBBUTZ Race 8: 4-LIKE IT IS, 1-DIVINE MADONNA, 11-AUTUMN JEUNEY Race 9: 6-SHADOWAYS, 8-SWICK, 9-STICKPIN Race 10: 5-LORD OF THE DANCE, 8-AMERRYKING, 13-COUNT TO ZERO

RACE 2: RESULTS

Tips: 10-MOTONARI 3rd W=$8.00 6-MOMENT OF TRUTH 12-ZACROONA 1st W=$10.80

RACE 3: RESULTS

Tips: 7-SENTIRE 8-ZAVITE 11-PACINO

RACE 4: RESULTS

Tips: 9-DIANA’S SECRET 5-ABSOLUTE GLAM 3-EXTENSION OF TIME

RACE 5: RESULTS

Tips: 1-WEEKEND HUSSLER 1st W=$1.60 9-BEL MER 2nd W=$16.80 6-SHREWD RHYTHM Quinella : $11.40 - not bad with short priced favourite

RACE 6: RESULTS

Tips: 4-ZIPPING 3rd W=$10.20 14-DEVIL MOON 10-HARADASUN

RACE 7: RESULTS

Tips: 3-VILLAIN 1-MARCHING 3rd W=$2.90 4-KIBBUTZ 1st W=$4.60 *** black booker ***

RACE 8: RESULTS

Tips: 4-LIKE IT IS 1-DIVINE MADONNA 1st W=$1.80 11-AUTUMN JEUNEY

RACE 9: RESULTS

Tips: 6-SHADOWAYS 8-SWICK 1st W=$8.50 *** black booker *** 9-STICKPIN

RACE 10: RESULTS

Tips: 5-LORD OF THE DANCE 8-AMERRYKING 13-COUNT TO ZERO 1st W=$13.20 *** found value trick to the quaddie - black booker *** Quadrella : $1631.80 **** find quadrella in the 3 selections ***

RACE 6: MACKINNON STAKES GROUP 1 2000M WFA

Tips: 4-ZIPPING 3rd W=$10.20 14-DEVIL MOON 10-HARADASUN

Others: 3,7 Pace: EVEN Leaders : 14-DEVIL MOON Handy : 8-CAPTIOUS, 9-ANNENKOV, 10-HARADASUN, 15-PILLAR OF HERCULES Back : 2-RAILINGS, 3-TAWQEET, 4-ZIPPING, 5-MAYBE BETTER, 6-DOURO VALLEY, 7-SCENIC SHOT, 11-SIRMIONE, 12-MISS FINLAND , 13-PRINCESS COUP Chances: 3-TAWQEET finally showed a glimpse of form last start when the cut the turn again (like he did to win the Caulfield Cup the previous year) and ran on OK. Had shown nothing before that this time in. Does look suited here today at WFA after carrying weight in the Caulfield Cup – meets the (6) 5.5 kgs better for -4.1 L, the (5) 3kgs better (and beat it home), the (13) 3kgs better for -3 L. Wet form looks OK too. Ran favourite in the Melbourne Cup last year, but was under injury cloud after throwing a shoe – and reportedly continues to lose the same shoe – someone should really introduce him to the wonders of Velcro. Drawn barrier 1, drops back, but wouldn’t be surprised to see him running home hard on the rails if he continues to improve – and there is enough room. Rough chance. 4-ZIPPING is fitter for the 3 runs in and really looks ready to ping. Not far off them in first 2 runs – and that was against many of these, and probably has the most improvement to come out of any of them in terms of fitness. Came home well in Cox Plate, bit hard to tell exactly how well as was well out of picture, and the slow pace there would not have suited. Handles wet just fine. Can race forward – and grind on – or drop back and zip home. Getting ready for the Cup, and you just feel he is going to do something today to get noticed. Strong chance. 3rd W=$10.20 7-SCENIC SHOT almost caused a huge boilover here in the Turnbull and he was chasing down the winner hard that day, then flopped in the Caulfield Cup, but jockey did get the sack for that ride when he forced him forward from outside barrier against normal racing pattern. Early runs this time in were all OK –loomed up under big weights, but died on runs, and distance and fitness saw him strike form. Never seen a wet track (he really should get out more….), and likely to drop back again here. Even allowing for that think he represents the roughie to watch out for here, happy to believe the Turnbull run and one to throw into the multiples at big odds. Rough. 10-HARADASUN seems to find one better every time he goes around – really seems to have every chance, when he races on speed he is usually there on the home turn, but something always runs away from him and leaves him flat footed. But no doubting his consistency, he has beaten home the (12) and the (14) last start under the same conditions, and beat most of these home in the Turnbull carrying more weight than them. So looks extremely well suited in this race today. Placed 3 from 3 at 2000M, but yet to win. Won the Doncaster at only wet track run so handles it just fine. Seems to be ridden forward these days, which should be a plus here, if the track favours on pacers and having drawn barrier 2 should get the run of the race – again – but will something go straight past him again? Quite possibly. In the finish, has absolutely everything to suit here today, but hard to recommend as a serious betting proposition, especially if he starts short. 14-DEVIL MOON didn’t step up to the mark in the Cox Plate, finished a respectable 5th, jockey was not keen to lead and she begged to differ and was swishing her tail madly. Impressive win here before that in Turnbull when sat on slow speed and shot clear in straight – and cannot see any reason why she cannot do that again today. Is unknown on wet ground, and only query is that she has found her best form quite early on this spring, and how much more is left in the tank ? Drawn to lead or sit on the speed, should be right there on the home turn and has to go in as a strong chance. Place: 6-DOURO VALLEY is racing in the best form of his career, hit the lead soon after the turn in Caulfield Cup, but run down, came out and chased hard here in Turnbull before that, and chased down quality on pacer to win before that at Caulf. Not suited going back to WFA though – goes up a hefty 7.5kgs from last run, and meets many from the Caulfield Cup and Turnbull on far worse weight terms here. Just OK on wet – think he is better on a dry track, but did run 2nd in a Warrrnabool Cup on a very heavy track so does go through it OK. Probably drops back here. Despite being one of the form horses of the spring, probably want to let him run today under these conditions – he probably runs on OK and looks good for Tuesday, but prefer to risk him as a winning chance. Place only 8-CAPTIOUS has always shown a bit of ability, but seems to have come back this time in best ever form, winning both starts since a break, even in weaker class. Did carry weight to win time honoured Moe Cup last start. Goes OK in slow ground, but probably better on dry. Is an on pacer, so suited if the track is racing to favour those on the speed. Class is obviously the test in this, this is a strong field, but also a field with quite a few question marks, and he is race fit and in winning form, something a few of these are sadly lacking, and represents the new horse on the scene. Maybe throw in as a rough chance if the on pacers are sticking on. 13-PRINCESS COUP has proven herself over here with finishing burst in the Caulfield Cup. Not suited going back to WFA here and up 5kgs in weight. Only slow track run was 1st up over 1200M so unknown in wet. Does drop well back, track will probably be favouring on pacers, and they generally don’t go that quickly in this race – think she really needs the speed on to run on. Place chance at very best. 2nd W=$9.50 Sacking: 1-EL SEGUNDO - SCRATCHED 2-RAILINGS won the Caulfield Cup a few years back, but has struggled for form since. Last spring was very disappointing, showed some form over the Sydney Autumn (remember when they used to race in Sydney? such fond memories), then flogged off to NZ. 3 runs this time in has shown nothing, should be fitter, but no form to recommend it and definite query on wet ground. No 5-MAYBE BETTER had been chugging along just fine, reeling off those ubiquitous “great Melbourne Cup trials”, till he actually was entered in one of the Cups – and flopped badly. To be fair, he did pull up lame and has been under a bit of an injury cloud. Was just doing enough to stay interested in each run this time in, running on enough, but not enough to be a serious threat in any of the races. Had a long hard preparation, getting ready for Tues, and goes well in the wet. Drops well back, back to WFA doesn’t really suit and this field is looking pretty hot, so happy to go around him today. Expect yet another “great Melbourne Cup trial” as he runs on well for 4th or 5th. Whoopee. 9-ANNENKOV was our roughie for the Caulfield Cup, and we went the awfully embarrassing early crow when he impressively kicked 3 lengths clear on the home turn and went for home – only to stop dead about 2 strides later. On pacer, who will be forced to push forward here from outside barrier and probably gets caught a little wide. Is very one paced, and on last start looks better suited dropping back to the 2000M here. Should handle it wet. Has been thereabouts in the WFA races over the spring, so probably not that off them again and wet track here might assist, but not sure he is quite up to this level. Passing. 11-SIRMIONE is flying the Bart Cumming’s flag for the Cup, but form this time in has been pretty ordinary - first 2 runs were OK and unlucky 2nd up when missed the run over concluding stages, but last 3 have been awful. Drops well back, dead set wet tracker so does get conditions to suit, but no form, and not suited at WFA being easily beaten in weaker races before today. No 1st W=$88.70 12-MISS FINLAND started the spring with a boom (carried over from last Spring and Autumn) and looked to have the world at her mercy, but then beaten, beaten and beaten again. Excuses in Underwood when jockey lost sight of the mission and chased home hard, was beaten by pretty smart one in Yalumba, but had every chance, and then plonked on fence, got dream run and just stuck on OK in Cox Plate. Needs to do something today to prove she is still a worthy contender for Tues. Drawn out, which is probably good for her, best runs are when she gets out and gets rolling before the turn. Suspect she will drop back today and they will ride her fairly cold, which won’t help if the on pacers are winning. Largely unknown in wet ground and may be a slight query, though can hardly write off on failure on bog track in AJC Derby. The also rans in the Cox Plate do have a habit of winning this race, but you just get the feeling something is not quite right and the disappointments are going to continue. Ready to take her on today. 15-PILLAR OF HERCULES is more famous off the track, than on the track, after being found guilty of going to a fancy dress party as Tony Mokbel in a bad wig. Lightly raced 3YO, gets in with no weight at WFA, quality staying 3YOs can be competitive in the Cox Plate, and Casual Pass won this race a few years back, but he was flying at the time, and not sure this one is doing the same. Races on speed, but is very one paced, and just plugs away, light weight should help though. Probably OK in wet, has been up a while in first preparation so probably coming to the end and represents a bit of an unknown factor going into this, but can’t see it happening. Passing. Summary: This race can sometimes throw up a funny result, it’s sort of a last gasp at spring consolation prize for many who have missed their main spring targets like the Cox Plate, or a gentle warm up run for those heading towards the Cup on Tues. Often a lot of horses coming into this race have been up a while, and are going that one extra run as connections try to grab some spring glory – the WFA winners are often safely tucked up in bed for next year by now. So do prefer to be on the fresh horse coming through, and as this track often favours on pacers and this race usually gets run at a slow tempo need to tend towards those well drawn racing on the speed. Pace here should be even only 14-DEVIL MOON should lead clearly, doubt they will try and hold her up again after last week, 8-CAPTIOUS, 9-ANNENKOV, 10-HARADASUN sitting just behind her. 14-DEVIL MOON should kick and grab a break, if the track is tending towards on pacers then race is probably all over, we are going to push for 4-ZIPPING as the fresh horse on the scene at odds though – has proven himself up to this level before, is versatile as can drop back or go forward, guessing they probably drop back from outside barrier today – just seems read to ping after 3 runs in. 10-HARADASUN really has it all in his favour today, should get best run in the race so strong chance, but only if the odds are reasonable as he is getting a reputation as an easy bet. Keen to bet. One to risk: 12-MISS FINLAND (sure way to get her back to form !) Roughie: 8-CAPTIOUS RESULTS : And we quote "This race can sometimes throw up a funny result". Well there is funny, and there is totally bizzaro world - still shaking head in disbelief. 11-SIRMIONE ?? No way. This race is such a dodgy betting proposition, the WFA horses are usually those who have missed their targets and are going to the well once too often, the Cup horses are only there for a warm up, so no wonder you get wierd results. 12-MISS FINLAND disappoints, plenty of good Cup runs - 13-PRINCESS COUP, 4-ZIPPING and 5-MAYBE BETTER the best.

RACE 7: VICTORIA DERBY GROUP 1 3YO 2500M

Tips: 3-VILLAIN 1-MARCHING 3rd W=$2.90 4-KIBBUTZ 1st W=$4.60

Others: 7 Pace: VERY SLOW Leaders : 12-MUFASA Handy : 1-MARCHING, 2-DOWN UNDER BOY, 5-STOCKADE, 10-GALAXY LAD Back : 3-VILLAIN, 4-KIBBUTZ, 6-HUSONIC, 7-BAMMAGERA, 8-BEST BEWARE, 9-BARACHETTA, 11-LITTORIO, 13-GALILEO FIGARO Chances: 1-MARCHING surprised us a bit with his effort last start, winning very impressively in traditional lead up race to this. Before that, had been competitive right through the spring, but really had had every chance in most runs and found one better each time. Has been running in better class races than most of these – and has been competitive in ALL of those races, so looks very hard to beat. Big plus with this one is can race on the speed, has the class to sit and sprint, rather than being a straight out stayer, drawn barrier 2 and should get the run of this race. Probably slight query on a very wet track if the rain comes. Extremely hard to beat. 3rd W=$2.90 3-VILLAIN seems to be one on the way up, and win here 2 starts back was super impressive, when got back and ran over the top of them like a class performer. Has the class turn of foot you want to win a Derby. Last start in Norman Robinson wasn’t suited by slow pace and was just finishing off nicely. Probably OK on wet ground. Looks suited back to Flemington, and extra distance, but probably no more speed in this race. Chances really come down to how the track is racing, he probably drops back here, so if on pacers are winning is going to make it tough, but on a track racing fairly think he is the one to beat. Repeat of last Flem win would win this. Top chance. 4-KIBBUTZ won a lot of fans with very impressive finishing burst in AAMI Vase last week, when dropped well back, and had to circle field and still finished on well. Largely unknown in wet ground. Big track should suit as is a dead set drop back and run on stayer, so would be best suited if this turned into a solid stayer contest – but cannot see that happening here with slow speed. Bit dubious about him, can’t ignore last run, but in a slowly run race – and especially if the track is favouring on pacers, he doesn’t look suited. Doesn’t have the explosive turn of foot of the (3). Have to respect form, so chance, but would want to see how the track is racing before getting on. 1st W=$4.60 7-BAMMAGERA wasn’t beaten too far in the Normal Robinson, and wouldn’t have been suited by the slow pace there. Run before that here was good, when cut back to the inside and finishing solidly and racing well in country before that. Probably does drop back and want speed on, which is unlikely, but has been pretty consistent this time in and not far off each start. Seems to have been forgotten about in this race, and outside the obvious picks, looks the best rough chance. Rough Place: 2-DOWN UNDER BOY has taken a while to find his form this time in – 1st 4 runs were fairly ordinary after showing a lot of promise in the Autumn. Just a fair effort here 3 starts back, then lobbed near speed in slowly run race in Norman Robinson and right in finish, and not disgraced in AAMI Vase. Those are the 2 form races to pay attention to in this, so history tells us he has to be some sort of chance. Does look well held by the 1st two from last start, best chance would be if he went along in the lead as he can race that way. Only wet track run was OK. Think he has been in the right place at the right time last 2 runs and might not be as suited here today, but place chance. 5-STOCKADE won the Geelong Derby Trial, which year in, year out proves to be one of the worse form lines around going into this race – last time a winner of the Derby came through that race was 1987 – which was so long ago we had not even put on our first trifecta. There have been quite a few highly spruiked chances come through that race too, and none have managed to win. Was a very nice win through, there was a solid pace and gathered them up quickly and went past them. Did race a lot closer to speed in win before that, so could race forward from barrier which would improve chances. Race fit and in form, but prefer to be on the traditional form lines. Place. 6-HUSONIC was beaten by the (5) at Geelong, but he got a gap on him at the top of the straight and this one was chasing him down well. Another who seems a dead set stayer, drops back and wants a solid pace, which is unlikely here. Hasn’t done much last 2 starts at Flem, and really place chance at best. 11-LITTORIO has always looked promising – eye catching run at Caulfield in Guineas Prelude when dropped well out, but finally worked out what he was supposed to be doing and went to line well held making ground, then fair run in restricted race at Ballarat, before finishing off nicely in Norman Robinson. Slow track winner so wet should hold no fear. Jockey did warn he was a little immature. Has to be respected on last run – but that run did get noticed – and he does seem under the odds for us. Another who will drop back and run on, no speed will not help, though finished off OK last start when there was little speed. Rough chance, probably prefer place though. 2nd W=$9.40 Sacking: 8-BEST BEWARE is WA visitor, and always a bit hard to line up the form, though many of these do go well. Not disgraced in AAMI Vase, and did have a bit of trouble getting clear, but still well beaten by the 1st two home there. Is proven over the distance unlike many of these, and had a long hard preparation, so would be suited if this turned into a solid staying contest. Only slow track run was beaten short priced favourite, but mentioned in stewards report, so probably handled the going. Bit hard to line up, could improve after the one run here, but prefer to wait till he shows form in Melb. No 9-BARACHETTA is a maiden, and barely competitive in maidens even. Has raced against some good horses this time in, but safely held each time and dropped out badly in Geelong Derby Trial. Only placing has come on a slow track – in a listed race – at 200-1, so might need it wet, but cannot get enthused here even if it poured. OK, maybe at 10,000 – 1. No 10-GALAXY LAD has had only the 4 starts, and still looks to be on the improve. Not disgraced in Geelong Derby Trial when made hard run 3 wide on turn to hit lead before being run down, but was getting weight from the (5) and (6), and meets them worse off here. Looks outclassed here – did race more forward in small field 2 starts back and wonder if they might go forward here with no speed, but no interest apart from that. Maybe if you want to throw in a bolter for a place this is the one. 12-MUFASA really hasn’t been showing very much at all – well held last start and most of that field goes around here, well beaten in maiden before that, and led as a short priced favourite at Morn and was easily grabbed by the winner. Should handle a wet track, and before last 2 starts was ridden forward, so looks the only leader in this race and should be able to dictate pace to suit. Blinkers on today probably fires him up to go forward too. Thought he struggled to run out the 1500M at Morn, so bit surprised to see him going on over more distance. Passing. 13-GALILEO FIGARO comes into this off a Benalla maiden placing when short priced favourite – and that was only Tues this week – barely had time to go home, change, have a shower before today, and if he goes out with a wet mane he might catch a cold. Dropped out badly in Geelong Derby Trial. No form, no chance. Summary: Small field this year, and extremely lacklustre race – so many of these seem to have no hope whatsoever, and could be a pretty skinny trifecta around the obvious picks. The Derby has one of the strongest form patterns in racing – the winner of this race just about always comes out of the 1st 3 home in the Norman Robinson or the AAMI Vase, with the last 14 winners of this race matching that pattern. So the only runners we really need to worry about as winning chances are the 1,2,3,4, although there wasn’t much between several of them in the Norman Robinson. Generally the class horse of the field will win this race, even if he is a distance query , beating home the more staying types. Real puzzle this year is that there seems to be no pace at all in this race – only possible leader is 12-MUFASA with 1-MARCHING, 2-DOWN UNDER BOY sitting up close. Should prove interesting to see riding tactics, especially if the track is favouring on pacers as usual. 1-MARCHING should get the run of the race here and kick clear, really just a matter of whether the 3-VILLAIN can come out and sprint home and run him down, think he has the best finishing burst in this race, and on a fair track looks the one to beat. If it is an on pacers track you would probably tend towards the 1-MARCHING. Pretty sure one of these two wins, not much between them, and not particularly interested in the 4-KIBBUTZ (even though it’s the obvious 3rd pick), who is the more staying type and won’t be suited by the slow speed. Only value is around 7-BAMMAGERA who should be thereabouts and is best rough chance. One to risk: 5-STOCKADE Roughie: 7-BAMMAGERA RESULTS : No surprises here, though did talk ourselves out of the 3rd pick - one of the safest races of the year to have a bet, and Norman Robinson/AAMI Vase form holds up yet again.

RACE 8: MYER CLASSIC GROUP 1 F+M 1600M

Tips: 4-LIKE IT IS 1-DIVINE MADONNA 1st W=$1.80 11-AUTUMN JEUNEY

Others: 6 Pace: EVEN Leaders : 4-LIKE IT IS, 10-BLESSED Handy : 2-CINQUE CENTO, 5-MISS FANTABULOUS, 11-AUTUMN JEUNEY, 12-BROLAGO Back : 1-DIVINE MADONNA, 3-BROM FELINITY, 6-BELLINI ROSE, 7-TRANSLATE, 8-SOVEREIGN MISS, 9-RED FOR LOU, 13-COCOA TYCOON Chances: 1-DIVINE MADONNA is one of the best mares going around, with a super flying finish, not disgraced in Cox Plate at 1st try at 2000M, and ridden more forward before that to claim Toorak. Much better suited here at Flem on the big track so she can unwind her now trade marked whirl wind finish. Opposition here today is a bit lacklustre and she is miles better than them – especially under the WFA scale so they all meet on even terms. However, her chances are largely dictated by how the track is racing – on a fair even surface she looks a sure thing, on a leader’s track , with her drawing wide and dropping back she is definitely beatable. Was beaten in this race last year for that very reason – and came out and won Emirates a week later. Only beaten an eyelash in the Doncaster on a wet track so should handle it wet. Classes above these, looks a good thing, but wait and watch the first few races before declaring her. 1st W=$1.80 4-LIKE IT IS is a very honest and probably under rated on pace mare. Pretty consistent once she finds form, and fitter for the 3 runs in. Had to give all her rivals weight last start and ran well, so looks extremely well weighted coming into this. Even better, goes forward and want to be on on pacers on this day. Wet is no problem, distance is no problem, only real danger to the top weight in this and if the track is favouring leaders probably want to have a serious bet on her as she looks ready to win. Top chance. 6-BELLINI ROSE has been right in the money every start this time in, but has not managed to win. Strung a few wins together earlier in her career and looked to be going somewhere. Handles it wet, yet to be unplaced this track, and well drawn here and barriers are important at the 1600M start. Likely to be in the placings again, hard to see her beating the (4) on weights, but maybe a rough chance with a dream run from inside barrier. Rough only 11-AUTUMN JEUNEY is one on the way up, was a little unlucky to get beaten at MV when was flushed out early on the home turn and kicked clear and looked home, before dead heating in a deceiving photo finish (OK, we were on her). Should be fitter for the 3 runs in and at peak today – loomed up at Caulf before that and died on run. Can sit on speed, should get a pretty good run here from inside barrier and expect she will be in the finish. Chance. Place: 3-BROM FELINITY is an honest get back stayer who was outclassed in the Yalumba last start, but fair effort in two runs before that and looked to be running into form. Unknown on wet ground. Best form is over the 2000M and not sure the drop back in distance suits today. Will be running on, and maybe a place chance if she sneaks along the rails. 4th W=$32.70 7-TRANSLATE ran on well last start when 2nd up and up in distance. Up 200M again here, and worst weighted horse coming through that run. Unknown on wet ground. Probably drops back and place chance best. 2nd W=$10.40 8-SOVEREIGN MISS is pretty good when she strike form, and is probably not too far off with the 3 runs in. Looked to be ready to win when finishing on well here 2 starts back, then last at Caulfield is probably worth ignoring as suggests something went wrong. Can handle it wet. Might just be suspect at 1600M on form, does need a solid tempo which is unlikely here, but worth a rough place chance. 9-RED FOR LOU won here 2 starts back in what looked a fairly weak race, but form has held up through those just behind her – she did get a dream run through the field to win. Handles it wet. Did run a nice race over in Adel in a Group 3 1600M, and this isn’t the strongest Group 1 going. Will be running on – place chance. 3rd W=$40.70 10-BLESSED is still very lightly raced and came to hand quickly this preparation, winning 1st up and then struggling when tried over longer distances. Improved showing when dropped back to this distance and class at Caulf, and on pacer so looks likely leader in this race and probably will be thereabouts. Elevate if the track is a dynamite leader’s track as she should get a clear lead in this. Will be thereabouts, but prefer as a place chance. Sacking: 2-CINQUE CENTO is an honest on pace mare at her best, has been racing at higher level, but disappointing in Caulfield Cup and Turnbull. 1st 2 runs this time in were not bad, and suited back to this class and weight scale. She is one who really needs it firm and dry though and don’t think she is going to get that today, and although suited racing on pace, she looks like she is struggling for form. Passing. 5-MISS FANTABULOUS is usually thereabouts in the finish, snuck through on rails last start for nice win. Is drawn out and does like to race handy, so probably gets caught wide in this. Wet form is OK, just had the 3 starts at the 1600M and yet to place, so probably a query at the distance. Risking today. 12-BROLAGO loves it wet and form isn’t as bad as it looks, was making good ground last start, and has generally been running on OK at each run this time in. Could go forward from inside barrier as did in wet track wins over winter. Outclassed in this, but wouldn’t mind getting on when she gets back to a weaker grade. Passing. 13-COCOA TYCOON is a strong finisher who came home OK at Caulfield, but was better at Sandown winning the start before that. Has a pretty good win strike rate, so does have ability, but likely to be giving these a start and looks outclassed into this. No Summary: Smallish field, and probably not worthy of a Group 1 on this year’s field. Pace here is only even - 4-LIKE IT IS or 10-BLESSED leads, with 2-CINQUE CENTO, 11-AUTUMN JEUNEY siting behind them. If this track is favouring leaders there is the opportunity here for on on pacer to pinch this, hence we are pushing 4-LIKE IT IS who is a tough consistent on pacer, and gave most of these weight last start. On an fair track, 1-DIVINE MADONNA streets ahead of these, obviously the one to beat and expect 11-AUTUMN JEUNEY to get the perfect run here from inside barrier and be in the finish again. Watch the track, see how it is racing and bet accordingly. One to risk: 2-CINQUE CENTO Roughie: 8-SOVEREIGN MISS RESULTS : One the track was favouring runners no, there was really no stopping the short priced favourite who was one of the surest bets you will ever see on a racetrack under these conditions. Nice 1st 4 (pays $2241) for those who wanted to anchor the favourite with the win and place selections in the form comments.