Odd shower or two forecast heading into the weekend. As normal, they will heavily water the track so it starts out a DEAD (4) in the morning and dries out. Shower or two around means it probably won’t get as firm as it has the last couple of weeks, so should be a perfect racing – and punting surface.
Rail goes back to TRUE today, after being out 9M on Turnbull Stakes Day. Derby Day can often favour on pacers, but not sure that will still be the case since the track was re-developed last year. Watch the first couple of races and see how they go, getting on the on pacers in these early races is often easy money, but should even out later in the day. Definitely want to focus on those that will race handy and are drawn well regardless – barriers are often very important at Flem. Down the straight – honestly – don’t think the inside is that bad, but everyone still seems hell bent on coming down the outside rail.
Derby Day and always plenty to be on, so double the betting portfolio and have a crack.
RESULTS : Track ends up quite firm and races very evenly. Some races around the bend are on pace dominated, but thats more to do with tempo and they can win coming from behind or on the rails. Sydney horses dominate the meeting
BEST BET : Race 3: 6-LARGO LAD, $20 WIN
QUINELLA : Race 3: 6-LARGO LAD, 1-LIGHT VISION x $5 2nd 1-LIGHT VISION W=$3.00
Stable has an opinion of this one. Yet to really prove himself a stayer, but jockey was sacked after getting too far back at MV and he wobbled around the turn and came home OK. Should be much improved by the run over the 2500M, much better suited on bigger track, and showed in previous runs he was close to top form. He is on the way up and most of these are going nowhere. Should be ridden more forward today – not much pace in this race so just in case the on pacers steal it, save with the quinella with the likely leader.
RESULTS : No enough pace on, so has to go early and go to the lead, against normal pattern. Still that was his last chance.
BEST EACH WAY : Race 6: 9-BARBARICUS $10 EW 2nd W=$9.10, P=$2.40 = 10 x 2.4 = $24
Snuck into the Caulfield Cup as emergency, went forward from outside barrier and ran an amazing race. The Mackinnon can always throw up a funny result, often the on pacers can pinch the race, and fit, in form and will go forward, and might just be about to go up a level. Quite keen each way at nice odds.
RESULTS : Ouch ! He looked home - just grabbed in the last stride. 15-1 was available on Friday - obviously everyone else saw the same thing in the form guide that we did.
BEST PLACE : Race 7: 9-LARRY'S NEVER LATE $5 WIN, $20 PLACE
Poor ol’ Larry hasn’t had the best of luck of late. Hopelessly unlucky last start when was held up badly for runs most of the straight and finished on well when got clear. Should’ve been right in the finish. We do have the short priced super star in this race, think he is the only possible danger, so back him mainly to place, but throw something on the win just in case.
RESULTS : Loomed at top of straight, but disappointing
BEST ROUGH : Race 9: 4-VALEDICTUM $5 EW
Yes, we are going to back him again. He is going along pretty well this time in – has been flying home last 2 starts when dropped well back in the field – not sure why as he did draw OK last time. This race is wide open, they are all going to come over to the outside rail and crunch each other, and always a raffle in these straight races as to who gets the break at the right time and wins. He is drawn back to the inside, so will sit back and get a clear run back to the middle of the track. Sometimes 1600M horses can run well back to the straight 1200M. Worth a shot at odds.
QUINELLA : Race 4: 3-MISS SCARLATTI, 2-SPARKS FLY, 1-OVAL AFFAIR x $5 = $15 2nd 3-MISS SCARLATTI W=$4.40
Often the Thousand Guineas horses that weren’t far off can get forgotten in the betting into this race and do something at good odds. The (2) and the (1) both went OK in that race and are worth following up on. Should be plenty of value in the quinella.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
Race 7 : Flexi First Four Box :
1-WHOBEGOTYOU, 9-LARRY'S NEVER LATE, 5-THE TIGER, 11-ORCA x $5 = 20.83%
We have found some value runners in the main race, so lets try a First Four – blows out should the favourite get beaten.
SPENT : $100
RETURN : $24
NET : $-76
Race 1: 4-NOESIS, 5-MOVIE, 1-MAJOR ROCKETMAN
Race 2: 8-INFATUATION, 3-CAYMANS, 2-DR DOUTE’S
Race 3: 6-LARGO LAD, 1-LIGHT VISION, 8-MOATIZE
Race 4: 3-MISS SCARLATTI, 2-SPARKS FLY, 1-OVAL AFFAIR
Race 5: 9-IMPRESSIVE EAGLE, 6-NORTHERN METEOR, 7-FIST OF FURY
Race 6: 9-BARBARICUS, 12-PRINCESS COUP, 7-LITTORIO
Race 7: 1-WHOBEGOTYOU, 9-LARRY'S NEVER LATE, 5-THE TIGER
Race 8: 1-FORENSICS, 5-GALLANT TESS, 4-SERIOUS SPEED
Race 9: 12-AICHI, 4-VALEDICTUM, 5-PUBLISHING
Race 10: 20-CHASM (4th emerg !), 12-TURFFONTEIN, 18-RIGHTFULLY YOURS (emerg), 15-FALAISE
4-NOESIS SCR
5-MOVIE SCR
1-MAJOR ROCKETMAN
8-INFATUATION
3-CAYMANS
2-DR DOUTE’S 1st W=$3.10
6-LARGO LAD
1-LIGHT VISION 2nd W=$3.00
8-MOATIZE 1st W=$3.80
Quinella : $4.70
3-MISS SCARLATTI 2nd W=$4.40
2-SPARKS FLY
1-OVAL AFFAIR
9-IMPRESSIVE EAGLE
6-NORTHERN METEOR 1st W=$1.50
7-FIST OF FURY 2nd W=$9.00
Quinella : $4.00
9-BARBARICUS 2nd W=$9.10
12-PRINCESS COUP
7-LITTORIO
1-WHOBEGOTYOU 2nd W=$1.70
9-LARRY'S NEVER LATE
5-THE TIGER
1-FORENSICS 1st W=$3.00
5-GALLANT TESS
4-SERIOUS SPEED SCR
12-AICHI SCR
4-VALEDICTUM
5-PUBLISHING
20-CHASM SCR
12-TURFFONTEIN
15-FALAISE
9-BARBARICUS 2nd W=$9.10
12-PRINCESS COUP
7-LITTORIO
Pace: SLOW
Leaders : 3-THESEO, 5-RAMPANT LION, 9-BARBARICUS
Handy : 2-OUR SMOKING JOE, 12-PRINCESS COUP
Back : 1-SIRMIONE, 4-ICE CHARIOT , 6-VIEWED, 7-LITTORIO, 8-RED RULER, 11-ARLINGTON
Chances:
7-LITTORIO looked like being crown King of Spring, but failed to produce the goods in the Caulfield Cup. Very impressive win here in the Turnbull when tracked WEEKEND HUSSLER into the race (anyone remember him?), and won with something in hand. Then Caulfield Cup effort probably wasn’t that bad – was only beaten 2.3 L, was wide and although never looked like wining they didn’t get away from him and he stuck on well. Did go into that race with only the 3 runs in, which did look 1 run short on the day. Good to see they are giving him the extra run going into the Cup, and think he probably has a bit of improvement to come off the Caulfield run. Returning to Flem is a plus, and think he might do something today to put himself back into Melbourne Cup calculations. Again though – will want a decent speed and them to be running on, but looks a genuine chance.
9-BARBARICUS pulled out a huge surprise in the Caulfield Cup when he only got into the field as an emergency, drew outside, went hard forward and wide – and was the first local horse home ! Don’t think it was a fluke either. Has been thereabouts at every run this time in, was probably a little disappointing in first few, but really seems to have struck his stride last 2 runs. Little unlucky in Cranbourne Cup when took time to get off the rails. Placed 10 from 13, so he is no slouch and might just be about to develop into something. Drawn OK, and will go forward here, which is what we want. Blinkers on first time too is a plus. Going on into the Cup on Tues. Form will say not a WFA horse, carried bottom weight in the Caulfield Cup so not suited here, etc – but this race can get a little bizarre at times – and he is an in form on pacer, so think we want to back him here today at nice odds. If they push him to the lead here he could easily pinch this, else think he will give you a decent run for your money. Get on ! 2nd W=$9.10
12-PRINCESS COUP was extremely disappointing in the Cox Plate. Let’s see – you set your horse for the one race all year, but you don’t bring it over till the Weds before the race, don’t gallop it on the tricky track before the race, put on a jockey who hasn’t ridden at the track for 10 years, and who doesn’t have another ride for the day, who is content to sit out the back and show no initiative in a slowly run race, and that’s pretty much the end of that. Don’t mean to sound bitter – we didn’t back her as such – just seems strange that this was the “plan”. Anyway, definite chance to make amends today – new jockey on board, bigger track should suit a run on horse, and she is a damm good 2000M WFA horse on her day – and she is racing against a field of stayers. Again, want them to be running on OK, and a decent speed, but do wonder if the new jockey won’t have her racing more forward. Did finish 2nd in this race last year when they were running on. She has the best finish out of all of these, so even in a sit sprint she can probably win. Chance.
Place:
2-OUR SMOKING JOE is an old timer who seems to be close to finding some form this time in. Fitter for the 3 runs in, and made good ground finishing on near the fence in the Coogny. Probably races a lot closer to the speed here today from good barrier in smallish field, and often there is not much speed in this race. Placed 9/16 at this track, which is pretty good form. Did have long lay off due to injury. Hasn’t won a race since Feb 2006 – roughly the same time as we last won a decent quaddie. This race does throw up funny results, so wouldn’t be surprised to see him win this, but probably prefer place chance. 4th W=$15
6-VIEWED is Bart’s Cup horse following the tradition that has seen him win around 20,000 or so Melbourne Cups (roughly). Actually ran on OK in Caulfield Cup – those of you who keenly watch the video would’ve seen him dodging for runs along the inside, finishing on OK. Was one run short going into that race too – after being scratched at the barrier in the Yalumba. Only the 3 runs in, so probably 1 run short going into Tuesday as well. Bart can get them to produce on this day, so probably worth considering, as does look like he is about ready to run into form. Query is probably drops well back again – so you would want them to be running on, and needs there to be a genuine tempo in this race, which often there isn’t. Rough chance only – line up for the ‘good Melbourne Cup trial’ stamp of approval.
8-RED RULER (NZ) stuck on OK in the Caulfield Cup at this 1st run over here. Stable still unsure about him going onto Tues – letting him off the leash for a dash around the park today to try and line up how he is going. Only lightly raced, and has shown he can mix it with the Aussies before. Again though, will drop well back, and stable doesn’t sound overly enthused about how he is going, so prefer place chance, but wasn’t that far off them in the Caulfield Cup, so not hopeless in this.
Sacking:
1-SIRMIONE caused a boil over to win this race last year, but proved it was no fluke winning the Australian Cup in the Autumn. Form leading into this race last year was pretty awful – so he is running right to plan this year as well. Probably not suited by lack of speed in the Yalumba or Cox Plate, but hasn’t really seemed to finishing off his races at all. Despite his two x 2000M wins on good tracks here - his form does suggest he needs it wet – so maybe if the showers persist consider him. But sheesh – he couldn’t pull off a form turn around 2 years in a row could he ? No. 3rd W=$9.40
3-THESEO was a fair effort in the Cox Plate – he did go forward early, but the jockey eased off and left the race up for grabs for the eventual winner. Loomed up on the home turn, actually clearly headed the winner, but was quickly beaten. Inside barrier and probably goes forward here – and Waterhouse stable has pinched this race a few times with leaders in recent years, on tracks favouring on pacers. Despite winning Epsom on a wet track, firm track form is just fine. Has won over 2200M before, just has now failed 3 times at the 2000M and do wonder if he is a bit suspect at the trip – loomed up in the Cox Plate like he was going to be the winner, but finished run very quickly indeed. Cox Plate runners normally go OK into this, but happy to risk him today. No 1st W=$6.40
4-ICE CHARIOT is being a good boy and having a traditional Melbourne Cup preparation with his Saturday warm up run today. Genuine 3200M dry track stayer. Great run in Caulfield Cup showed he was starting to run into form, then solid effort again in MV Cup. Big firm track will suit. WFA is probably not his thing, but then again, this race isn’t always won by WFA horses. Main problem is he always drops well back, and often the on pacers pinch this race, so can see him getting back and running on nicely and everyone going – “oooh – want to be on him on Tues – did you see that run?”. You can practice now if you like – everyone repeat after me – “ooohh, etc”. No
5-RAMPANT LION sounds dead-set ferocious – am scared already. QLD visitor who is having a bit of a bizarre preparation – not quite sure where he is planning to head during Cup Week ? Probably the casino afterwards ? Only the 2 runs in, not far off in strong form race here 1st up, then well beaten on Sunday at Sale. Form over the QLD winter on wet tracks in WFA races was actually pretty good and he does race handy which is always a plus in this race. But only 2 runs in, stepping up in distance here and yet to show any form down here so leaving out.
10-ZAGREB - SCR
11-ARLINGTON has only won the 1 race, down from Syd, 3 runs in, but last 2 runs only over 1400M, which were OK when carrying weight. Not quite sure what the plan is for this one ?, or why he has ended up in this race? Passing.
Summary: The dear old Mackinnon, where anything can happen – and normally does. Often a trick race, you either have those coming off disappointing Cox Plate runs (the Cox Plate winner is always well tucked up in his luxury stable), or those warming up for Tuesday, so it is a race that is there for the taking for those who show some initiative. How many times have we seen an on pacer pinch this race ? When have you ever heard of a horse being ‘aimed for the Mackinnon’ ? – it’s purely a stepping stone or a consolation prize afterthought.
Prefer to be on the fresh horse coming through, and as this track often favours on pacers and this race usually gets run at a slow tempo need to tend towards those well drawn racing on the speed. Pace should be OK only - 3-THESEO, 5-RAMPANT LION, 9-BARBARICUS all capable of taking up the lead, guessing 3-THESEO leads with 9-BARBARICUS siting outside, but there is not much to put pressure on the leading group.
This might sound quite insane, but we are seriously going to push 9-BARBARICUS here – will sit on pace, Caulfield Cup run was extraordinary, and might be a fresh horse on the scene that is about to step up a grade. Yes, the race is at WFA, but he is only up against a field of largely stayers. 12-PRINCESS COUP is the best 2000M WFA horse in the field, and might be ridden closer today, and suspect new jockey will see her back to form. 7-LITTORIO is still going along well, and on Turnbull win is right in this, as long as they are running on. Think these are the only 3 winning chances and happy to back the top pick each way at odds. Keen to bet.
One to risk: 3-THESEO 1st W=$6.40
Roughie: 6-VIEWED
RESULTS : Ouch ! Quite confident about 9-BARBARICUS each way, 15-1 available on Friday before everyone else realised he was way over the odds. Sat on speed, kicked and looked home - only to be nabbed right on the line by the one we took on. Extra pain. Ouch again. Waterhouse wins this race again. These drop back sucker WFA horses come a cropper in this race every year - this year it was 12-PRINCESS COUP and 7-LITTORIO - and we plead guilty.
1-WHOBEGOTYOU 2nd W=$1.70
9-LARRY'S NEVER LATE
5-THE TIGER
Pace: SLOW TO EVEN
Leaders : 5-THE TIGER, 6-WOOKAH
Handy : 3-REBEL RAIDER, 4-PRE EMINENCE, 7-TUSCANY VIEW, 8-BUFFETT, 11-ORCA
Back : 1-WHOBEGOTYOU, 2-CARNERO, 9-LARRY'S NEVER LATE, 10-ST CULPE, 12-RELENTLESS LAD, 13-PADDY O'REILLY, 14-MY SCOTSGREY, 15-FLASH'N DOUGH
Chances:
1-WHOBEGOTYOU is the star 3YO and normally these star 3YOs on the rise just keep on wining throughout the spring – in both the colts and geldings and the fillies. Had genuine excuses 1st two runs in and was ready to ping, let loose with devastating win in Bill Stutt – circling the field on a leader’s track, did pretty much the same in the Caulfield Guineas when won going away from them. Issued a bit of a challenge with solid speed set by leader in AAMI Vase, but showed he could deal with that as well. Deserves to be short priced favourite and should just keep on winning. One to beat.2nd W=$1.70
5-THE TIGER is coming through the Geelong Classic which is form that normally doesn’t hold up for this race. But you know what – we like this one !. He led and raced away from them there in the straight like a solid staying type – like the way he booted for home, and he can probably lead here again. If the track is favouring on pacers, you might find he is hard to run down in the straight. Wasn’t far behind these start before that at Flem, when did get a little hampered on the rails. Despite the Geelong form line – think he is the best rough chance by far this year.
9-LARRY'S NEVER LATE is a poor ol’ thing – hasn’t had much luck at all. Last start he was hopelessly unlucky, jockey standing up in the saddle, looking for runs (and trying to remember where he parked his car), at the top of the straight, went left, went right, got blocked, refused entry, and finished it off OK once he got a clear run. Might not have won, should’ve run a clear 2nd at least though. Start before at Flem again he had to take time to ease across heels before getting clear. Has been consistently thereabouts in his lead up races and think he is just about due for a change of luck. Not an AAMI Vase or Norman Robinson place getter, which is the form line you want, but probably should have been, so think that is close enough. Jockey is having a bit of a purple patch too. Think he is going to appreciate the extra distance and big track today and might just give this a shake. Genuine chance.
11-ORCA is still a maiden, but they can win this race now and then. Actually quite liked the run in the AAMI Vase – he is the one who set out to the tear away leader, went up and reigned him in and stayed on OK after that. Not much between him and the (8) last 2 runs. Probably drops back here from outside barrier, but think he might stay OK and might be just about to show rapid improvement. Ticks the box of being a place getter in the AAMI Vase, so has to go in. Rough chance.
Place:
3-REBEL RAIDER comes through the Geelong Classic, which is proven, time and time again, to be an utterly irrelevant lead in to this race. Did make ground there – was well beaten by both the (5) and the (14) who are both going around here – but does meet them better on weights. Going along OK in Adel before that, but hardly setting the world on fire – but was having to carry big weights. Drawn wide, but does prefer to race handy so will probably go forward here. Actually, guess he hasn’t been finishing too far from them, has been carrying weight, he will go forward and probably stick on OK, so might be worth a rough place chance. 1st W=$76.30 *** hey look - we gave it a chance ! ***
4-PRE EMINENCE won the Norman Robinson, a traditional lead in to this race, so have to pay attention to that form. Great ride to take him to the lead (OK – we might have been on him) – do feel the ride probably won him the race. Ridden back at Flem start before that did not work and he was an eye catching finisher. Doubt he will lead here, probably take a sit behind the (5) on the rails and should get pretty good cover all the way around – so might put in a burst in the straight. Have to respect Norman Robinson form going into this, so does rate a chance, just there were a few behind him from that race that were unlucky, and the AAMI Vase form has been the one to follow in recent years. Chance, but probably preferring place for us. 3rd W=$13.30
8-BUFFETT - is on the improve, with only the 4 career runs, and seems to be improving as the distances increase. Not beaten that far by the superstar (1) in the AAMI Vase, and ticks that box as the form you want to follow, and not far behind them in fairly weak field at Caulfield before that. Drawn well, can race handy, so should get pretty good cover through this race. Go through the history books though – whilst in recent years some have won the VRC Derby in their 1st preparation – they have been the star 3YO in scintillating form – but can you win at your 5th career start ? Seems a huge challenge. Probably will get a great run, and will be thereabouts – place chance. 4th W=$9.40
Sacking:
2-CARNERO has been a bit unlucky this spring, becoming an expert at running 4th and 5th. Funny run in the AAMI Vase – was going backwards before the home turn, but rallied again to poke up on the rails and stick it out and finish his usual 4th – they didn’t run away from him though. Runs before that were good – made solid ground from wide barrier in Caulfield Guineas, badly held up for runs on rails before that in the Bill Stutt. Just thought he had every chance in AAMI Vase, it was a solid staying test, and 3 going around here beat him home that day. Will be thereabouts – he is genuine – 4th or 5th again.
6-WOOKAH is another go forward one, who will probably sit outside the (5) here. Ridden back in Norman Robinson was against normal racing pattern, and run is probably better than it looks – he raced on his side for a while in the straight, and had to shift runs. But just thought start before that at Flem he went forward – had every chance - and got out stayed. Beaten home by many of these last start so would have to improve a fair bit to be a factor here. Prefer to leave out.
7-TUSCANY VIEW made a little ground when well beaten at Geelong, and meets the 3 who beat him home convincingly there again today – and all on the same or worse weight terms, so hard to see him being a factor. No
10-ST CULPE really hasn’t done anything to recommend it in 4 runs this spring. Well beaten against these last two runs and moving onto the next runner already. No thanks
12-RELENTLESS LAD has popped down from Sydney, and so has missed all of the traditional lead up races into this – which is a very unusual preparation – usually if you think they are good enough for the Derby you bring them down for the lead ups. Form in Sydney is only fair at best, and the Sydney form has proven to be very ordinary this year. Drop back type. Hard to see him being a factor in this. No
13-PADDY O'REILLY has been on the traditional staying path, but been rather frustrating to follow – being thereabouts to encourage you to get on next start, but not really producing. Made it into the placings in Norman Robinson, disappointing when favourite start before at Flem, and looks just a grinding type. Is a Norman Robinson place getter though, so does tick that box. There are plenty around him from last couple of runs that we would much rather prefer to be on and more than happy to leave him out today – doubt he is going all that well. No
14-MY SCOTSGREY (NZ) is coming into this with only the 3 career runs, which does seem a hefty task. Bought over from NZ for this, so they must have an opinion of him. Still started 7-1 at Geelong – so was hardly backed off the map. Was finishing on OK at Geelong – just starting to come home – and the jockey did ease him over the last couple of metres. But again – Geelong Classic form rarely holds up, this is only his 4th start, he will probably drop well back here – can see him giving these too much ground. Prefer to pass.
15-FLASH'N DOUGH is still a maiden after 9 starts, well and truly beaten at odds at Geelong and not going to get close here. No
Summary: This race is normally pretty straight forward. Last 6 years – all of the winners have been in the first 3 home in the AAMI Vase. Last 20 years – 19 winners have been in either the 1st 3 home in the AAMI Vase, or the 1st 3 home in the Normal Robinson. And the one year missing ? - the winner was 4th in the AAMI Vase. One of the strongest form lines in the business, pretty much all you need to do to find the winner each year is just chop it down to the first 3 home from the AAMI Vase/Norman Robinson.
Normally the 3YO on the rise keeps winning – and 4 out of the last 6 favourites have won this race which is a pretty good record. So if you want to take the short priced odds about the favourite – you will probably be safe. But do be prepared for a bit of a ride for you money, once they get out to the 2500M it is never easy, and do remember both HELENUS and EFFICIENT had to pull out something special to win this race, so it probably won’t be as easy as it looks. Wear extra deodorant - just in case.
Pace here should be slow to genuine, with 5-THE TIGER, 6-WOOKAH leading and 3-REBEL RAIDER, 4-PRE EMINENCE, 8-BUFFETT sitting in behind them. Peeled out in plenty of time, big Flem straight you would think 1-WHOBEGOTYOU should win, as long as the track is racing fairly. For the dangers – actually going to go away from the AAMI Vase/ Norman Robinson place getters (even after doing the hard sell about how important they are). 9-LARRY'S NEVER LATE has been going along OK, hopelessly unlucky last start and think he wants the extra distance and could give this a shake. And, even more surprising, and yes we have slapped ourselves across the face a few times, we are going to give a push for the Geelong winner - 5-THE TIGER – just love the way he led and out stayed them last start and he might give these a scare today. 11-ORCA the next of them, and probably play some trifectas and first fours around these ones.
One to risk: 13-PADDY O'REILLY
Roughie: 5-THE TIGER
RESULTS : Boilover ! Bolter gets up - and then we read back over the form - and we actually gave it some chance (well, little bitty chance). Actually, rate 7 horses as winning or place chances - and cover the $16,000 First Four. Solid staying effort - the winner really outclassed them. Interesting that last two years this race has been won by the solid staying types. 4-PRE EMINENCE probably the unlucky runner, missed start and snagged back to last and finishing on well.
1-FORENSICS 1st W=$3.00
5-GALLANT TESS
4-SERIOUS SPEED SCR
Pace: EVEN
Leaders : ???
Handy : 1-FORENSICS, 2-MIMI LEBROCK, 6-ABSOLUTELYFABULOUS, 8-BELLINI ROSE, 11-AUTUMN JEUNEY, 14-BERNICIA
Back : 3-ABSOLUT GLAM, 4-SERIOUS SPEED, 5-GALLANT TESS, 7-TRANSLATE, 9-TAN TAT DE LAGO, 10-EL DAANA, 12-TRICK OF LIGHT, 13-DANE JULIA, 15-PRIMA NOVA, 16-ROSE OF CIMMARON
Chances:
1-FORENSICS is fitter for the 2 runs in, though has had the 4 weeks off since last start here. Was quite unlucky that day, took forever to get into the clear, but when she did, she finished with gusto to not be beaten far at all – and giving weight to some of those she meets here. Meets the (3) 1kgs better and the (8) a whopping 4.5 kgs better. Drawn well which is important over the Flem 1600M and hopefully that sees her ridden midfield or better – she was drawn wide last start which is why she dropped back, which again makes the run even better. Strong chance. 1st W=$3.00
2-MIMI LEBROCK has been racing very well this spring – had the race in her keeping a long way out last start, getting a perfect sit behind the speed. Forget Flem run before that when just about got put through the fence a few times. On pacer which means she will be suited at the Flem 1600M – but she has drawn wide – which is a real worry. Barriers are very important from this start – and her normal racing pattern is to race handy, so they might get caught wide here. She has been giving weight to her rivals and winning – and goes into a race with set weights – so very well in under this weight scale. Yet to win past 1400M – she hasn’t had that many tries, but if she is suspect at the trip a wide barrier over Flem 1600M is going to find her out. But in form, very well weighted, so solid chance. 3rd W=$5.60
4-SERIOUS SPEED has a scintillating finish when she is on song. Had the 3 runs in this time, and they have been OK – but she hasn’t really pinged. Competitive enough in open class races in 1st two runs back, and not too far off them last start at Caulfield. Fitter for the 3 runs in – and one plus that she has is that she has had the 3 runs in, and most of her rivals have only had the 2 runs. Just wonder if she wants Flem , 1600M and a dry track – which is today !. Drawn inside and will drop back, but end of the day they should be running on OK. Might get forgotten and drift out to silly odds in the betting – think she is worth including. SCR
5-GALLANT TESS was outclassed in the Cox Plate – and mares coming out of the Cox Plate have gone well in this race recently. Solid run in Epsom in open company before that and going along well this time in up there. 1600M is her thing, so was a query at the 2000M last start. She will probably drop back as she is drawn out a little, but they should be running on down the middle of the track. Most of these have been going around against each other, so think she is worth including as the fresh form line that may be better than all of them. And she is a genuine 1600M horse – where many of these are not. And had the 1600M runs this time in – and many of these have not. Convinced yet ? Definite chance.
10-EL DAANA doesn’t have the best win/place strike rate going around, but probably does keep her best form for Flem. Fitter for the 2 runs in, but has had the 5 weeks off since last run. Last run here was actually OK – she was finishing on well and looked like she was ready to win next start – not sure why she had had such a break for – has she had some sort of set back ? Actually – maybe the stable decided she races best fresh ? Big track, bit of speed, and chance to come down the middle of the track and think she rates a chance in this. Wasn’t far off these first up and she probably has the most improvement to come out of this lot. Go well. Rough chance. 4th W=$28.40
14-BERNICIA is another coming into this with only the 2 runs in – 1200M/1400M. Made solid enough ground last start at Caulfield – was actually a really good run – get out the video! . She dropped out of picture at the back of the field on the home turn, but was suddenly coming on – did she hitch a lift ? . Is well drawn and maybe they might race handy – dropped out last start because of outside barrier. Though just about all of those who beat her home last start are going around again here – but she probably has more improvement than most of them. Probably a decent rough chance – only lightly raced and on the improve, Definitely worth putting in as the value runner for trifectas, etc as she is well drawn and might race on pace so solid rough chance.
Place:
3-ABSOLUT GLAM is a class mare who has been lightly raced and carefully placed. Just the 2 runs this time in – and another coming into this off a 4 week break, and stepping up 200M. Placed 3 from 4 over 1600M so you know she will run this trip right out. Is a drop back horse though – and she got into trouble in the Manikato from her inside barrier when she couldn’t get clear and probably should have won. Drawn inside again here, and might need some luck to get through the field. She has the class to win this. Bit worried about her going 1200M/14000, a 4 week freshen and into a tough 1600M race, but will be thereabouts. Chance, but we are going to down grade her to place only. - SCRATCHED
6-ABSOLUTELYFABULOUS has been going along really well and is close to a win. Last two runs have both been eye catchers, making weaving runs through the field near the inside. Yet to be tried past 1400M, but can’t see why she cannot run the trip – she has been finishing on well. Nice barrier here which is important over the Flem 1600M and she might take a more forward position. Main problem is the weights though – she is really badly weighted going into this. Meets the (2) 3kgs worse off, the (4) 3kgs worse off and the (9) 2kgs worse off , and they all finished around her last start. On form would just about tip her on top – she looks on the improve and ready to win, but with weights best we can say is a rough chance. She won’t be far away at odds. 2nd W=$16.00
8-BELLINI ROSE is an honest as they come on pacer who finally got another win on the board last start – she had endured a frustrating run of placings, after having a very impressive win strike rate early in her career. Does go best here – and loves the Flem 1400M/1600M trips, if she draws an OK barrier, she races handy and she is pretty much in the finish every time. Did get race presented to her last start – someone mugged the (2) on the fence and put her out of the race. Her main problem is she is hopelessly weighted going into this – meets the (3) 3.5 kgs worse for only a 0.5L, the (1) 4.5kgs worse for only 1.4L,etc. Will race handy and put herself into the race, but place chance only.
9-TAN TAT DE LAGO is one we have never quite lined up – pinched the Danehill here in upset win as a 3YO, and wet track form in QLD over winter was OK. Had only the 2 runs in – going 1200M/1400M into this race as are a few others. Run at Caulfield was excellent – came from well back on the home turn and trainer was suitably impressed. Drawn wide gate for Flem 1600M and will drop back – and on pace barriers are usually the go. Chance here for them to show some initiative and take her to the lead ? – she has raced well like that before. Probably wants a wet track to be a serious chance in this – if they drop her back, they should be running on OK by this race, but she would need them to go along at a decent speed as well. Last run was pretty impressive so is capable of upset. Place preferred.
15-PRIMA NOVA had to nick back over the border after getting scratched a few times as emergency down here. Pity we missed it too – the 5-1 would have been nice. Fitter for the 3 runs in and big big plus is that she has had the 1600M run – and lots of her rivals have not. Ran on very well 1st up at MV, then not far off these at Flem, but did have weight advantage that day. Drawn outside and she does drop well back – hard to come from well back this course and distance, so rough chance at very best.
Sacking:
7-TRANSLATE is pretty good on her day, unfortunately those hazy care free days seem to be long gone – she hasn’t shown any form at all this time in. Although she did make up some ground last start she was still beaten a long way. On her best form would be right in this – but let’s wait till she shows some form. No
11-AUTUMN JEUNEY is fitter for the 3 runs in, and is pretty capable on her day. Run at MV 2 starts back was good when got squashed for room when going for her run, then probably a little disappointing at Caulfield, but it was a funnily run race with a tear away leader – she did present on the home turn like she was going to run into the race, but faded. She runs a solid 1600M which is a big plus, and can sit on speed – is drawn wide though so probably gets caught wide here. Just a little unsure how she is going so tending towards others today.
12-TRICK OF LIGHT had a massive boom on her early in her career, but didn’t make it as a stayer last spring. Raced sparingly since then – and tends to get scratched more often than not – can we bet on that yet ? Did race well here 1st up over the 1600M in the Autumn, but just think it’s a huge task to win this 1600M Group 1 1st up from a spell – and to be honest – always thought she was massively over rated. No.
13-DANE JULIA has just about sent us bankrupt this spring, so we are dropping off today. Feel free to get on and revel in our misery when she finally wins one. Has loomed every start as one to follow, one on the up. 1st up run at Caulfield when switched back to inside and died on run, to strong finishing effort 2nd up here from wide barrier in on pacers race, to 3rd up at MV when had to hook around runners and probably not suited around tight MV. Then 2 starts ago at Flem when looked a sure thing jockey rode her forward against her normal pattern – on a track that was strongly favouring runners on. And she was right in the finish last start too – in the group photo in the last at MV. She really has done nothing wrong, dry track, spacious track will suit, strong finisher , 1600M race fit. We can’t possibly tip her again – she has had enough chances for us, but if it’s your first time feel free to have a ping – really nothing wrong with her form – just need to give someone else a chance. Enjoy – you can have her.
16-ROSE OF CIMMARON is another Sydney visitor who is fitter for the 3 runs in and has the 1600M run under her belt. Can run a longer trip which is a plus, but does look a dead set wet tracker on form. Guess it depends on how much rain comes, but prefer to risk. - SCRATCHED
Summary: Well, this seems to be one tricky little race. Very even field and most of these have some sort of chance. Most important things to consider when doing the form : the weights – set weights so some of these are severely worse off from their lead up runs, and Flem 1600M – normally want those well drawn and on pace. Little concern than many of these are going into a tough 1600M race 3rd up coming off 1200M/1400M runs which might find them out, but seriously, there is absolutely no way in the world we are going to tip 13-DANE JULIA again.
Not quite sure what is going to lead here? Sure the pace will be even – but maybe not fast enough for the back markers - there are enough that can race handy. Actually there is the chance for 9-TAN TAT DE LAGO to scoot across from her outside barrier and she does go OK when ridden to the lead. Else it’s 2-MIMI LEBROCK – can get cross and negate the outside barrier?, 8-BELLINI ROSE, 14-BERNICIA maybe ridden forward – but can’t see them going all that quickly.
Very tough race, but definitely best run out of the lead up races was 1-FORENSICS who flew home last start after being held up for runs - probably just want her ridden closer to the lead here today from better barrier. 5-GALLANT TESS is one of the few proven 1600M horses in the field – and has the 1600M runs this time is a big plus – if they ride her forward here she is going to be hard to beat.
4-SERIOUS SPEED might be ready to do something. Definitely watch out for 14-BERNICIA as the value runner here.
Set weights should favour the class horses, but you probably want to go wide in your quaddies and include those on the way up, so you have to think about –.10-EL DAANA, 2-MIMI LEBROCK, 9-TAN TAT DE LAGO. Good luck with this one.
One to risk: 8-BELLINI ROSE
Roughie: 14-BERNICIA
RESULTS : Favourite and top pick gets home - to be honest probably started a little too short for us with lots of Sydney money around on the day.