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| FLEMINGTON : DERBY DAY - 31st Oct 2009 |
| Track: DEAD (4) - Weather: WARM WITH SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): Unsettled weather heading into Cup Week, warm and balmy, but showers and the odd thunderstorm so bit difficult to know exactly how much rain we are going to get. Probably not enough to affect the track so doing the form for a DEAD(4). They don’t seem to be watering the tracks on major days as much as they did a few years back - most weeks tracks are starting out a DEAD(4), but are quickly firming up and often ending up quite firm. Bit of rain around should ensure track retains a little give. Last meeting here Turnbull Stakes Day when the rail was TRUE the track definitely favoured on pacers and down the straight they all came to the outside rail. Derby Day can often favour those racing on the speed, and Flemington has been a bit leaderish of late – especially in the 1400M/1600M races – get on inside barriers and/or on pacers. Last year down the straight the inside rail was actually faster after several years of everyone rushing to the outside. Might be even inside/outside today down the straight, or outside just a little faster, but suspect they will be coming down the outside rail the rest of the week. As always on Derby Day looks a great betting program with plenty to keep the interest. Actually quite a few solid win bets here in the $5 to $10 range, so betting strategy is to back straight out to win and double some of them up for bigger collects. Big betting day, so doubling up to $100 in the betting portfolio. RESULTS : Despite some seriously fun electrical storms heading into the weekend, track starts out a DEAD(5) but quickly improves to a DEAD(4) and to a GOOD(3) on a seriously hot day to be wearing at suit in a 100,000 strong crowd. Track races very fairly, no sign of bias, some very impressive wins coming down the middle of the track. Down the straight they all come to the inside initially, but split in the later race and suspect the outside rail will be quicker later in the week. Tips have a pretty ordinary day out, but manage to fluke a collect in the betting portfolio. BEST EACH WAY : Race 5: 12-DRUMBEATS $10 EW Lightly raced one who has shown a fair bit of ability, yet really hasn’t been set for anything major this spring which is unusual. Fitter for the 4 runs in, better for the run over the 2000M last start when from a wide barrier dropped back and then had to make a hard run 5 wide around the turn. Loomed up and threatened but died on run. Drawn an inside barrier, normally races on speed, not much speed in this race and this race is often stolen by horses racing on speed. Nice each way bet and should be in it for a long way down the straight. RESULTS : Sits on pace, looms in the straight but does nothing. Jockey said he over raced, but suspect he just doesn't run out the 2000M. QUINELLA : Race 6: 1,2,3(scr) boxed x $5 = $15 SCR $10 QUINELLA : Race 6: 3-SHAMOLINE WARRIOR, 2-VIKING LEGEND x $2.50 SCR $2.50 QUINELLA : Race 6: 3-SHAMOLINE WARRIOR, 1-ONEMORENOMORE x $2.50 SCR $2.50 Think there is plenty of value in the main race. The favourite 3-SHAMOLINE WARRIOR definitely looks the one to beat, but loving the value at over $10 the two main dangers 2-VIKING LEGEND, 1-ONEMORENOMORE. Definitely have something on them to win. We are going to search for value in the quinella, box up all three, then take extra units on the favourite combinations. RESULTS : Favourite in the Derby is scratched so that's the end of that bet. BEST EACH WAY : Race 8: 1-TURFFONTEIN $7.50 EW 2nd W=$8.60, P=$2.40 = 2.4 x 7.5 = $18 This guy is ultra consistent, under rated and keeps starting over the odds. Has been racing very well this time in, won Group 1 at Caulfield, got knocked over a few times in the straight at MV when still not far off them, and dropped back to unsuitable distance last start at Caulfield was coming strongly on the line in slowly run race. Meets winner from that race better at the weights here. Loves a bit of give in the ground. Put in a huge run down the straight during Cup week last year. Should sit off the speed a little and finish on strongly. Each way. RESULTS : Track has dried out by this race, goes to the outside rail and runs very well only beaten by one on the inside. Honest sprinter who always puts in and pleasure to bet on you Mr Turffontein. QUINELLA : Race 2 : 2-STERLING PRINCE # 4,7,8,9,11 x $2 = $10 1st 4-SHOCKING W=$3.90, 2nd 8-HUME W=$4.40, 3rd 9-IRAZU W=$10.50 The staying race is wide open. Favourite the 4-SHOCKING is definitely the one to beat, but does drop back and has inside barrier, and this is a very even field. Value runner is the 2-STERLING PRINCE so chance of a nice collect if we bank him in some quinellas. Last start in Geelong Cup he sat just behind a pretty solid speed and it was a tough slog in the straight and he stuck on pretty well. Should still have improvement having stepped up in distance last start, and should sit right on the speed again and put himself into the race. Quinella should pay nicely in open field. RESULTS : 2-STERLING PRINCE goes to the lead and sticks on pretty well in the straight as the other ones we had picked out make their runs. Gets swamped around the 100M mark though to finish 5th. Got a bit of a run for our money anyways. QUADRELLA : Races 6,7,8,9 : 1,2,3 (scr) / 4,11 / 1,2,4,7,8 / 5,9,12,13,14 x $30 FLEXI = 20% 3rd 2-VIKING LEGEND W=$6.60 / 1st 11-TYPHOON TRACY W=$2.20 / 2nd 1-TURFFONTEIN W=$7.50 / 1st 13-CENTENNIAL PARK W=$9.70 Always keen to have a quaddie on Derby Day. Stick to the three chances in the 1st leg the Derby which includes two nice value $10 chances. There is a shortie 11-TYPHOON TRACY in the 2nd leg who is a leader and should win, so maybe just take a runner on as well in case they go too quickly in front. Load up the 3rd leg, especially those with outside barriers as good chance the outside rail will be quicker down the straight (but watch Race 4 to see the racing pattern). Despite big field in the last don’t think there are many winning chances – stick to on pacers and nice barriers over Flem 1400M. RESULTS : Out in the first leg but not far off the rest of the day including the value winner in the last race. That 11-TYPHOON TRACY is one damm impressive horse. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 3 : 6-FAINT PERFUME under $4.00 1st W=$3.70 The buzz around this one is deafening. One of Bart’s, who as everyone knows can do no wrong at the moment so was already going to start under the odds. Put in a pretty good run in the Thousand Guineas running on from last 2nd up and up 400M to finish in the placings. Then actually thrashed stable mate SO YOU THINK at track work at Moonee Valley last week, and that one went kinda OK in the Cox Plate from memory. The ground swell for this one is enormous, suspect she will end up starting favourite and probably goes around as short as $2.50 on the tote. Does appear to be one on the up, but is 3rd up, up another 400M to the 2000M, and the Wakeful has been a trick race for a few years now where often there has been no speed what so ever – and she drops back and runs on. Good chance the track will be favouring on pacers (watch early races), good chance they will go slow in this one, isn’t the strongest field, but a few that are going OK. Bit brave to take on Bart, but this one is going to start way under the odds so think it is worth laying. RESULTS : Bart 1 - Turf Deli 0. We learn our lesson not to mess with the master. Track is racing fairly, doesn't start as short as we had expected and 6-FAINT PERFUME absoutely totally slaughters them. Most embarassing. Don't take on horses off good runs is the lesson here - take them on off bad runs. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more. QUINELLA : Race 4 : 1,5,10,12,15 boxed x 50 cents = $5 1st 12-HEADWAY W=$15.00, 2nd 10-KING PULSE W=$23.40. QUINELLA = $134.10 x 0.5 = $67.05 No science about this bet at all. Good chance the outside rail is going to be quickest down the straight, so ignore the form, just box up the outside 5 barriers and sit back and see which side they come to. Fun for all the family. RESULTS : Lovely total fluke win. We take all the outside barriers thinking they are going to go to the outside rail - they stick to the inside but we still pick up a very nice quinella. SPENT : $100 RETURN : $100.05 NET : $+0.05 WOO HOO !!! |
| The Tips: Race 1: 2-BAWAARDI, 5-THE COMEDIAN, 1-KIDNAPPED Race 2: 2-STERLING PRINCE, 4-SHOCKING, 9-IRAZU Race 3: 4-JOLIE BRISE, 3-RUN FOR NAARA, 1-MELITO Race 4: 5-WANTED, 12-HEADWAY, 3-SHELLSCRAPE Race 5: 12-DRUMBEATS, 11-RANGIRANGDOO, 10-VIGOR Race 6: 3-SHAMOLINE WARRIOR, 2-VIKING LEGEND, 1-ONEMORENOMORE Race 7: 11-TYPHOON TRACY, 4-NEROLI, 12-GOLD WATER Race 8: 1-TURFFONTEIN, 2-FIRST COMMAND, 8-WASTED EMOTIONS Race 9: 14-KILOTON, 5-MCLINTOCK, 9-EXCELLTASTIC |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-BAWAARDI 5-THE COMEDIAN 1-KIDNAPPED 1st W=$2.80 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-STERLING PRINCE 4-SHOCKING 1st W=$3.90 9-IRAZU 3rd W=$10.50 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-JOLIE BRISE 3-RUN FOR NAARA 1-MELITO 3rd W=$5.20 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-WANTED 12-HEADWAY 1st W=$15.00 *** nice value winner *** 3-SHELLSCRAPE 3rd W=$11.30 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-DRUMBEATS 11-RANGIRANGDOO 10-VIGOR SCR |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-SHAMOLINE WARRIOR SCR 2-VIKING LEGEND 3rd W=$6.60 1-ONEMORENOMORE |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-TYPHOON TRACY 1st W=$2.20 4-NEROLI 12-GOLD WATER |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-TURFFONTEIN 2nd W=$8.60 2-FIRST COMMAND 8-WASTED EMOTIONS |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 14-KILOTON 5-MCLINTOCK 2nd W=$4.30 9-EXCELLTASTIC |
| RACE 5: MACKINNON STAKES GROUP 1 2000M WFA |
| Tips: 12-DRUMBEATS 11-RANGIRANGDOO 10-VIGOR SCR |
| Others: 5,1 Pace: SLOW Leaders : 6-SIR SLICK Handy : 5-SCENIC SHOT, 10-VIGOR, 11-RANGIRANGDOO, 12-DRUMBEATS Back : 1-VIEWED, 2-RACING TO WIN, 3-MASTER O'REILLY, 4-ZIPPING, 7-NEWPORT, 8-CIMA DE TRIOMPHE, 9-MANDELA, 13-MISS MAREN Chances: 1-VIEWED put in a solid staying performance in the Caulfield Cup to add another trophy to the cabinet Great ride, but was also a good staying performance from a quality stayer who may have been a little under rated even after his Melbourne Cup win. Ran on very well here this track and distance 2 starts ago. Last year he was quite unlucky in the Caulfield Cup when he found trouble and ran on OK, but then did nothing in the Mackinnon so hence started relatively unloved in the Melbourne Cup. Obviously in better form this year, but just wary he flopped in this race last year. Suited at WFA having just won a handicap with a big weight. Probably drops out – and that’s the issue – as often the Mackinnon is won by on pacers. He is going pretty well, so can’t rule him out, suspect he might drop back though and run on well for the “good Melbourne Cup trial”. Rough. 3rd W=$5.70 5-SCENIC SHOT is a tough grinding on pacer who was ambitiously set for the Cox Plate and didn’t do too badly there to finish a respectable 5th. Was actually first to make a run for home there, went early and wide and stuck on OK. Ran a placing here this track and distance start before that in the Turnbull and that’s the 2nd time he has placed in that race – so might have a liking for the Flem 2000M. Probably just below the top liners and this is a good race for him. From nice barrier he will sit right on the speed and be there at the right time. Think he is going to do something today. Genuine rough chance.1st W=$7.10 10-VIGOR looked like being the star of the spring when he won the Makybe Diva but struggled at the two runs following when he drew inside barriers and struck a little trouble. Poor baby. Wasn’t quite sure how well he was going after those runs, but came out with no weight from a wide barrier, wide most of the way in the Caulfield Cup and ran a huge race. Looks to be back on song. 5 wins and 1 second from 7 starts here. Drawn a middle barrier and should be able to get outside horses which seems to be the key to him. Can race on pace here too – and most of these are likely to drop back. Niggly query is maybe whether he doesn’t like carrying weight which could also be the reason for those poor runs, but that’s unlikely. Should lob right on speed here and be in this for a long way. Strong chance. SCR 11-RANGIRANGDOO is a young up and comer who is still on the rise. Yet to miss a place now in 13 starts is a very impressive record. Was initially going to go around in the Cox Plate, but famous track mishap when he refused to go around the corner at MV saw him running in the Crystal instead. And he totally thrashed them – with top weight and had the race won a long way out. Was a very impressive performance. 1st try at the 2000M, but no reason to believe that would be a query after easy win last start. Drawn nice barrier and should lob on pace here. Looks to be in the best form out of these and seems to be the one to beat here. Strong chance. 12-DRUMBEATS is still very lightly raced but hasn’t quite got to the heights expected as yet. Beat the in form one the (11) in Sydney 3 starts back (was getting 2kgs from it), then can obviously forgive run on very heavy track in the Epsom. Run in Coongy was much better than it looked – he drew a wide barrier, he made a very early and very wide run and did loom up threateningly – but died on the run which wasn’t a surprise. That was 1st try over the 2000M and should be better for that run. Has drawn nice inside barrier, can race handy and do wonder if they might just push him forward here – have to be very wary of on pacers in this race. Still a bit of an untapped talent. Like last run and keen to get on today – if he goes forward think you are going to get a bit of bang for your buck here. Solid chance. Place: 3-MASTER O'REILLY is fitter for the 4 runs in and is going along OK. Finished on very well 1st up, worked home nicely along rails 2nd up, had to go wide and early in small field 3rd up and went OK. In the Caulfield Cup he dropped out hopelessly to the back of the field and jockey said he just didn’t like the corners and is better back on the big track at Flem. Did work home very well when he got balanced and was the best finisher from the Caulfield Cup. Drawn out here, will drop back and give these a start and will need them to be making genuine ground from the back to be any sort of chance today. Bit wary he hasn’t won a race now in over 2 years. Will be running on – prefer place – maybe if the runners on are winning then elevate chances. Place. 4-ZIPPING is damm honest, has been around for ever and is still under rated. He has produced year after year for a while now, MV Cup winner, Sandown Classic winner, Cox Plate place getter. Run in Cox Plate was pretty good as he looked well beaten on the home turn but still stuck on for 3rd. Should be at peak now with 3 runs in. Ran 3rd in this race in 2007 coming off an indifferent run in the Cox Plate so maybe going even better this year. At lot will depend where he settles, often at Flem he drops out and comes with rattling runs as he has done several times in the Turnbull, but he can race on pace if required and did race quite handy in the Cox Plate. Just wary of horses dropping back in this race, often track is favouring on pacers and there isn’t much speed. Drawn nicely and can sit handy if required. Suspect he is going to drop out though. Getting warmed up for Tues so might just run on too late. Prefer place. SCR Sacking: 2-RACING TO WIN is a Sydney visitor who has never shown his best form in Melbourne. Gigantic flop when even money favourite in the George Main, then didn’t do enough to get us interested when had to carry top weight in the Toorak. Has ran a 2nd over the 2000M, but flopped over this distance when favourite for the 2006 Cox Plate – suspect it is as far as he wants. Likely to drop back here as well. Not going good enough at the moment. No 4th W=$15.10 6-SIR SLICK is a NZ leader who had a shocking spring here last year and became a bit of a running joke as he backed up week after week and poor performance after poor performance. Apparently did have problems though which have now been sorted out. Best he could do last year was a 3rd in the Bairnsdale Cup, but then went on and ran some OK races during the QLD winter. Fitter for 4 runs in, but form in NZ is hardly inspiring. This is much harder. Will lead though and put some pace into the race so that’s rather nice of him. 104 starts and have never backed him. Nothing is going to change at start 105. No 7-NEWPORT is an capable Sydney stayer who can mix his form and is difficult to catch. Actually did run on OK in the Coogny last start. Getting warmed up for his run on Tues, few stretches, bit of a canter, probably drops out and runs on too late as is the norm. Melb Cup trial awaits. No. 8-CIMA DE TRIOMPHE is an OS stayer from the Cumani stable who seem to have the right idea about which horses to bring down. Ruthlessly spruiked by the racing media (as are all international horses) going into the Caulfield Cup and started well supported – and did nothing. Shock. Horror. Etc etc. Stable are trying to get him qualified for the Melbourne Cup else he has to walk home. Blinkers on again. Hard to have on Caulfield Cup run, only thing might be to listen out to interviews and see if maybe they intend to ride him forward today? Have to try something. Not a betting proposition for us though. 9-MANDELA caused a upset win 1st up over 1600M in the Seymour Cup. Handy stayer on his day. Did carry big weight to win 1st up. 2nd up and up 400M and always wary of getting on horses 2nd up and up in distance. Has now won Geelong, Werribee and Seymour Cups so does seem to like the country life. Best on top of the ground which will get. Has had quite a few cracks at these features races and pretty much hasn’t been good enough so passing. 13-MISS MAREN won impressively 1st up and looked like going on with her winning streak of last preparation. Not disgraced in 2 runs in Aus after that, then taken to NZ when poked through late and went OK. 3 wins and 2 placings from 8 starts over 2000M. Inside barrier and just suspect she is going to drop back and get caught up at the back of the field here. Not quite sure she is up to this class. Prefer to risk. 2nd W=$31.30 Summary: The Mackinnon Stakes is probably one of the trickiest races of spring carnival. Half the field are here just to do a bit of a stretch and have a warm up for the Melbourne Cup. The other half are looking for Consolation Prizes and Second Chance Draws. Often on Derby Day we do get a track favouring on pacers, often in this race an on pacer can steal it with half the field being made up of drop back stayers and not much pressure up front. Think you need to be very wary of drop back horses in this race, though that is dependant on how the track is racing. Pace here should be pretty slow, 6-SIR SLICK is the only likely leader, he was SCR from the Cox Plate (and that scratching totally changed the complexion of that race), so just watch out in case he does have problems and gets scratched again. Would leave little to no speed in this race. Suspect 12-DRUMBEATS will be ridden forward today, 5-SCENIC SHOT will sit handy, and 10-VIGOR, 11-RANGIRANGDOO the next behind these. Slow pace will probably make it pretty hard for anything running on. We are pretty keen on 12-DRUMBEATS in this. Lightly raced , yet to see best of this one, quite like the run in the Coogny when was caught wide, went early, loomed up, but died on run. Should get a lot of benefit from that run and suspect he might scoot forward today and be in this for a long way. The in form 11-RANGIRANGDOO the main danger, again would be good to see him sitting jut off the speed. 10-VIGOR back in form and sitting outside runners just off the speed the other obvious chance. Rough chance to the other on pacer 5-SCENIC SHOT. Pretty keen to have a bet on the top pick though who we think is ready to produce something and should be nice odds. One to risk: 8-CIMA DE TRIOMPHE Roughie: 5-SCENIC SHOT 1st W=$7.10 The Key: On pacers often steal this race RESULTS : Another favourite flops in the Mackinnon - which does tend to happen quite often - 11-RANGIRANGDOO starts a ridiculous $2.30 on the tote and flops badly. Tough honest on pacer 5-SCENIC SHOT wins who was the best roughie, but didn't start at particularly rough odds. Solid Melbourne Cup runs from 1-VIEWED, 3-MASTER O'REILLY and 7-NEWPORT. Poor 4-ZIPPING gets cast under the barriers. Our top pick 12-DRUMBEATS gets a perfect run on speed, presents at the top of the straight and looks like he is going to be in the finish but doesn't run out the distance and stops quickly. |
| RACE 6: VICTORIA DERBY GROUP 1 2500M 3YO |
| Tips: 3-SHAMOLINE WARRIOR SCR 2-VIKING LEGEND 3rd W=$6.60 1-ONEMORENOMORE |
| Others: - Pace: SLOW Leaders : 6-GATHERING, 9-PRINSOM Handy : 1-ONEMORENOMORE, 2-VIKING LEGEND Back : 3-SHAMOLINE WARRIOR, 4-MONACO CONSUL, 5-EXTRA ZERO, 7-SOUTHERN SKYE, 8-OUR HEIR APPARENT, 10-ROCKFERRY, 11-COMMONAGE CLOSE Chances: 1-ONEMORENOMORE has a stack of ability and a multitude of problems which always provides for an entertaining betting option cause you are never quite sure exactly what you are going to get for your betting dollar. Is just about always around the money – hasn’t finished further back than 6th in 11 race starts. Coming along nicely in Sydney, but they just can’t seem to get him right, he keeps over racing and going too keenly and won’t settle. Started short priced favourite in Spring Champion Stakes and again over raced on a very heavy track so can forgive that run. Over raced again last start in the Norman Robinson, so had to be let loose early, stuck on OK considering. If you knew he was going to settle you would just about want to back him with some confidence – he does have a stack of ability. No gear changes going into today, but a jockey change. Small field though, and doesn’t seem to be that much pace, so you do wonder if he will over race again ? Over racing over the longer trip is going to put paid to his chance pretty quickly. On the plus side he has the right form for this race - place getter in the Norman Robinson. Plus he gets the weight advantage here – meets the (3) 2kgs better, beaten 1.5L, and the (6) 2.5 kgs better who he beat home last start. Small field and he is going to sit right on speed here and get a pretty good run (if he settles). If he doesn’t – do they just take him to the lead and go for it? Might as well. But hard to know what to do with him, he does need to do everything right to win, if he plays up just a little will be the end of his chances. Watch he doesn’t get out to silly odds though as is some chance and likely to get a good run here. Chance. 2-VIKING LEGEND is a bit of a forgotten horse in this race – run last start wasn’t too bad, he has the right form being a place getter in the AAMI Vase, and the two who beat him home there both are not going around here. Actually liked the run last start, did get a cosy inside run, but just took a little while to get clear and balance around the turn, the two who finished in front of him were already out and running, and once he balanced he finished off the race nicely. Should be much better suited here at big track central. Has been settling back in his runs, but stable normally race them on pace so might race just off the speed here. Strong chance. 3rd W=$6.60 3-SHAMOLINE WARRIOR has been eyeing this race off all spring and has got here in peak form and deserved favourite. Lot to like about the win here 2 starts back, had plenty to give but was struggling to get a clear run, and showed a touch of class with strong finishing burst to grab a gap on the rails when it finally came. Positive ride from jockey in Norman Robinson saw him moving early around the home turn with the race firmly in his grip, didn’t win by much but had them well covered. Looks a class horse with a class turn of foot and they are the sort you want to be on in this race. Shouldn’t be any query with the distance, and stable finished 2nd to this one’s half brother in this race last year. Only negative we can see is that he will probably settle back a little in small field, probably won’t have any trouble getting clear, but just watch how fast they are going and if the track is favouring on pacers. But the class 3YO is the one to back in this race. One to beat. SCR Place: 5-EXTRA ZERO is one we were extremely keen on last start when truly awful ride and jockey has since humbly apologised and offered to clean our car for free for the next year. Was coming along nicely before that – ran on very well 2nd up in the Bill Stutt and was one of the few to make any ground in the Caulfield Guineas when was working home nicely. Then was caught out 3 wide early in the AAMI Vase and jockey went forward and wide, and he was the first one beaten before the home turn after a very hard run. Another who represents a bit of an unknown – if you forget about last run form for this is pretty good. Just wary that even though he had a hard run he was the first one beaten last start. Probably drops back here and not sure how fast they are going to go. Wouldn’t surprise if he won, but probably prefer to back others here so prefer place. 2nd W=$8.70 6-GATHERING looks the only leader here and will get to dictate the race if he wants. Stuck on OK last start when the 2nd horse did go up and pressure him early, but have to say the 1st two home there covered him easily, and he meets them worse off at weights in this race. Honest tough hard fit on pacer and they can be hard to run down in this race. 7 starts, never missed a place, place getter in Norman Robinson is right form for this. Just be careful if the track is favouring on pacers – then he definitely becomes a strong winning chance. Will get own way in front, will probably stick on pretty well, but suspect will find one or two better like he did last start. Definite place chance though. Sacking: 4-MONACO CONSUL is coming into this with an unusual preparation – just the 3 runs in when most of his rivals have had 4 or more. Upset winner on bog track in Sydney last start when stuck to rails and got dream run through. Had a full 4 weeks off since that run which is unusual lead up to this race. Stable does have a high opinion of this one though. Barrier 1, will drop back to tail of this field, not sure how fast they are going to go here and is going to be giving most of his rivals a head start. Obvious question mark is he could just be a wet tracker too. Happy to risk. 1st W=$4.60 7-SOUTHERN SKYE is a Sydney visitor who won the Geelong Derby Trial last start – a race that has always been an appalling guide to this race (although finally last year it did produce a winner). Did have to travel pretty wide in that race, but so did most of the horses in the finish. Had a very long preparation – 9 starts this time in. Form in Sydney before that was just OK – but not really up to these. Drops well back, is going to be giving some decent horses a fair head start and doesn’t do much for us. No 4th W=$14.30 8-OUR HEIR APPARENT is another coming through the Geelong Derby Trial, but it is the horse that ran 3rd there , the (9) that everyone wants to be on. Had to make a hard run 3 wide on the home turn so did stick on pretty well. Only the 3 lifetime starts is very light on going into this race – most have had at least 4 runs this time in and more than one preparation. Another who came from well back at Geel and stuck on OK, but suspect he is out of his depth against these. No 9-PRINSOM was well beaten in the Geelong Derby Trial and this is considerably harder. Has had 7 runs this time in so doubt there would be much in the way of improvement still to come. Has been tried in city class a few times and failed. Main interest is he will go forward, so is the only other likely pace setter in a small field. No 10-ROCKFERRY is the spruik horse in this, only the 3 starts but seems to be rapidly improving and learning what it is all about. Slaughtered a field of six at Geelong 2 starts back – but it was a field of six in a maiden ! How much can you read from that? Then held up for runs and finished on with enormous burst in the Geelong Derby Trial. Has to be said though those who finished in front of him there had very hard runs wide around the turn and he sat behind them and came out late. Only 3 lifetime starts, only 3 runs in this time, the majority of Derby winners have had more experience. Does seem to have the class turn of foot required to win this race. There have been plenty of stunning wins and eye catching runs in the Geelong Derby Trial over the years and they have never done anything in this race. Last year we finally got a winner through that race and he was a rank outsider who barely did anything in the lead up. So yes, this one seems to have a stack of talent, was unlucky and very promising run last start, but just can’t get enthused, especially at the odds on offer. Happy to risk. 11-COMMONAGE CLOSE is fitter for the 3 runs in, but well beaten by 3 going around here last start at Geelong. Another who was trapped wide that day and had a hard run so did stick on well. Wasn’t competitive in city runs before that though. Maiden, only placed once. Nup. Summary: The VRC Derby is probably one of the best races of the year if you are having a confident bet. Rarely produces a surprise result (last year was an exception – we hope!). Normally this race is won by the class 3YO with a smart turn of foot, rather than the more solid staying types. This race has one of the strongest form patterns going in racing. Before last year’s one off, never to be repeated, one in a million, upset result with REBEL RAIDER at 100-1, the last 6 winners have been in the first 3 home in the AAMI Vase. In the 20 years before REBEL RAIDER came out and spoiled the party there were a whopping 19 winners in either the 1st 3 home in the AAMI Vase, or the 1st 3 home in the Normal Robinson. And the one errant result in those 20 years pre REBEL RAIDER ? - the winner was 4th in the AAMI Vase. Which makes it quite interesting this year with two of the main chances 4-MONACO CONSUL and 10-ROCKFERRY not coming through the traditional lead up runs. Hence we are keen to take them on and think there is some value about the others because of that. Although the winner last year came through the Geelong Derby Trial, he was a well beaten 3rd and interested no-one. Over the years there have been plenty of strong wins and eye catching runs through that race, but none of them have produced much into the Derby. Hence we find it pretty hard to get enthused about 10-ROCKFERRY who obviously is one on the improve, has a stack of ability, but is way, way under the odds at around $5. Additionally, the only winner in the last 10 years to have 3 runs leading into the race was BENICIO in 2005, all the other winners have had 4 or more. And all of them have had more than 3 life time starts. Keen to take on 10-ROCKFERRY with only 3 career starts, 3 starts this time in and coming off Geelong Derby Trial form, and 4-MONACO CONSUL with only the 3 runs in this time and having had a month off since last run. Small field and pace probably isn’t going to be that strong – only likely leaders are 6-GATHERING, 9-PRINSOM, with 1-ONEMORENOMORE sitting off them. Interesting to see if 1-ONEMORENOMORE over races again whether they just let him run, cause race is there to be pinched by a tear away on pacer. No doubt 3-SHAMOLINE WARRIOR is the one to beat here, class 3YO with a powerful finishing burst. Probably drops back a little though so just be wary if the track is favouring on pacers, but deserved favourite. 2-VIKING LEGEND looks the main danger for us, quite liked the run in the AAMI Vase, has the right form for this race and suspect will be up and running just behind the speed and put himself into the race at the right time. Looks great value and loving the $10 currently on offer so keen to have something on this one. 1-ONEMORENOMORE the other danger, again looks over the odds, but does need to settle and do everything right. Quite keen to bet as think there is a lot of value here as we are keen to knock the chances of some of the more favoured runners. One to risk: 10-ROCKFERRY 5th W=$4.00 FAV Roughie: 6-GATHERING The Key: AAMI Vase / Norman Robinson 1st three home RESULTS : Favourite is SCR on the morning of the race and that makes the rest of the field very even in betting. Somehow, the one we have flagged as the big risk 10-ROCKFERRY ends up starting favourite which was ridiculous - we were super keen to take it on as the comments show. Last year we had a 100-1 winner coming off a 3rd in the Geelong Derby Trial which traditionally has been an AWFUL guide to this race - and this year we have a $4.00 well backed favourite coming off the same form ? Making sense to anyone? Shocking bet. Having said that we didn't give the winner much chance either so can't exactly claim any great victories here. Solid staying performance by the winner. |
