 |
Ignore the ad above. We have organised a better deal ! |
|
| FLEMINGTON : DERBY DAY - 30th OCT 2010 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: AWFUL - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): The poor racing folk in Melbourne can’t get a break. There is plenty of sunshine during the week, but come race day it is pouring rain, hail, storms, sleet, snow, wind, cyclone, tsunami and earthquakes. It is just so hard to work out what to wear to the races when you know there is a multitude of natural disasters coming your way. Wear something warm and pack emergency flares just in case. Guess what we are trying to say is yet more bad weather for Saturday. Rain and wind mainly. Has been a few fine days leading in, but steady rain is forecast starting Saturday around midday and getting heavier as the day goes on. Hard to know exactly how bad it is going to get, expect probably a genuine dead, heading towards slow by the end of the day. Everyone is falling over backwards to tip and back wet trackers – but it is a fine, drying day Friday, they can’t water the track much cause they know a lot of rain is coming, and the forecast seems to be just for a few showers Friday night, Saturday morning. It is quite likely, especially with the early start that the first couple of races are going to be run on a pretty firm track. The rain will settle in, but it may not really affect the track till the last couple of races so don’t go over board on the wet track form – well not quite yet. (What’s the bet we wake up to the sound of torrential rain tomorrow morning ?). The other issue is that there are reports in the paper this week that the Flemington track is in bad shape and has not recovered fully from mid winter beetle attack. Damm those beetles. This means the grass isn’t rooted properly and the track tends to cut up quite quickly with racing. Normally on Derby Day the pattern is, rail back to the TRUE, get on those racing on pace. But worth noting the last time the rail was TRUE here on a wet track, back on Makybe Diva Stakes Day the rail was off and they all came down the middle of the track. In fact the last two meetings here have strongly favoured those running on, with numerous winners even coming from last or close to last on the turn. So as always, be prepared, just in case a definite pattern emerges. Probably looking at an even or maybe on pacers track early in the day whilst still firm, once the rain starts to come the track might cut up pretty quickly and they will be wanting to stay away from the inside and you might see the swoopers winning. Down the straight you might find the winners come out past the middle of the track as well. Always a great day to have a bet, but tips and selections and betting strategies are going to chop and change dramatically over the day depending on the weather, so be ready to be versatile. RESULTS : The rain stays away just long enough to trick 90,000 people into going to the races - and once they are safely inside - down it comes. First couple of races run on a GOOD track, track detoriates as the day goes on and ends up a HEAVY(8). Utterly impossible day on the punt, the tips struggle, but very few people had a winning day, except the bookies, and the dry cleaners, and the guys who sell the plastic weather proof ponchos. BEST BET : Race 8: 3-CATAPULTED $10 WIN X QUINELLA : Race 8: 3-CATAPULTED, 6-SHELLSCRAPE x $2.50 QUINELLA : Race 8: 3-CATAPULTED, 8-SET FOR FAME x $2.50 This poor fella has been going along great, just been unfortunate enough to bump into HAY LIST 2 starts in a row. Lead and kicked clear with gusto 1st up in the McEwen which was a pretty good run. Sat off him 2nd up down the straight here last start and again no match. Should be fitter for the 2 runs in, yet to miss a place over the 1200M and straight track form is good. There actually isn’t that much speed in this race, he will go forward and from a wide barrier he can sit out in the middle of the track which could be the better going. Solid bet. Value quinellas should come with the other on pacer, the (6) who is also proven down the straight, and the untapped runner on the (8). RESULTS : Unfortunately he is a bit of a query on a heavy track and never looks likely when the rain starts coming down. BEST WIN : Race 9: 10-DEMERIT, 12-WE’RE GONNA ROCK $5 WIN 10-DEMERIT 2nd W=$4.00 Coming into the last race you would think the track is going to be cutting up and favouring those running on. Quite a few who can go forward as well so you probably want to get on the runners on. The (10) was making solid ground late last sat and will be much fitter for the 2 runs in and looks ready to win. The (12) is finally showing some real form, still gets in at bottom of weights cause hasn’t really won anything and will be finishing on strongly. Can probably go 2 out on these in the last leg of the quadrella. RESULTS : Darn it, just about everyone was on 10-DEMERIT to get out of a shocking day on the punt. He weaved through the field and looked home till one kicked back. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 11-ALMINDORO $5 WIN X QUINELLA : Race 6: 11-ALMINDORO, 2-REKINDLED INTEREST x $3 QUINELLA : Race 6: 11-ALMINDORO, 9-DIGITAL FORTRESS x $3 QUINELLA : Race 6: 11-ALMINDORO #3,18 x $1 SCR $1, 1st 3-LION TAMER W=$12.90 Happy to have something each way on the value runner (and maiden) in the feature race. Just looks like he will box seat from this barrier, he looks a dour staying type who is going to be suited if it is pelting rain, wind and super tough conditions. Suspect he will poke through half way down the straight and plug away, and just a matter if something comes out and runs him down – so take quinellas with some of the strong finishers, the (2), (9) and some value quinellas with the roughies (3),(18). RESULTS : Well we got the weather conditions right, and picked the right sort of horse, just the wrong runner. Roughie 3-LION TAMER wins in an canter, lapping up the wet conditions. BEST ROUGH : Race 7: 8-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED $2 WIN, $5 PLACE X Has been racing extremely well this time in and unlucky not to have won a few more races. She is in better form than a lot of these. Forget last run when got badly baulked for a run at the top of the straight. She might sit handy just off these and plug on OK. Of course has to beat the favourite the (2), but a solid value place chance at least. RESULTS : Never looks likely. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 7 : 1-HOT DANISH at around $8. 3rd W=$9.30 High class Sydney mare who has come unstuck in Melbourne before. Was SCR from heavy track at Caulfield 2 starts back and that has thrown her preparation totally out. Was going to be set back for the sprints, but then that looks too tough with two stars on the rise, so back to the 1600M here with only the 3 x 1200M runs this time in. Query on seriously wet ground and this race is later in the day. The (2) has had her measure before and should again. Risking. RESULTS : Actually pretty good effort on a very heavy track, but worth laying none the less. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. FLEXI QUADRELLA : Races 6,7,8,9 : 2,9,11 / 2,3 / 3,6,8,9,12 / 10,12 x $5 = 8.33% X Always worth having a quaddie in Derby Day. Should be value in the big field in the main race, and we are happy to just take the (2),(9),(11). The favourite the (2) should win the 2nd, but always worth throwing in something else cause the quaddie blows out if she gets beaten. Go wide in the sprint – we already have backed our top pick anyway straight out, and if there is a value winner will probably be in this race. Come home on the two swoopers in the last and you should be able to go two out in that race. RESULTS : No legs !! SPENT : $50 RETURN : $1 NET : $-49 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 4-ACE ACOSTA, 2-MR CHARD, 1-SKILLED Race 2: 5-LINTON, 11-CEDARBERG, 7-ONCE WERE WILD Race 3: 4-KITTENS, 7-BRAZILIAN PULSE, 19-COUNT YOUR FINGERS (emerg), 17-WAVE DANCING Race 4: 6-SHRAPNEL, 4-SOUL, 3-BUFFERING Race 5: 1-SHOCKING, 6-SO YOU THINK, 8-SHOOT OUT Race 6: 11-ALMINDORO, 2-REKINDLED INTEREST, 9-DIGITAL FORTRESS Race 7: 2-TYPHOON TRACY, 3-CULMINATE, 8-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED Race 8: 3-CATAPULTED, 6-SHELLSCRAPE, 8-SET FOR FAME Race 9: 10-DEMERIT, 12-WE’RE GONNA ROCK, 9-WOORIM |
 |
|
| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-ACE ACOSTA 2-MR CHARD 1st W=$4.80 1-SKILLED |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-LINTON 2nd W=$3.70 11-CEDARBERG 7-ONCE WERE WILD 3rd W=$13.90 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-KITTENS 7-BRAZILIAN PULSE 1st W=$4.00 19-COUNT YOUR FINGERS |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-SHRAPNEL 3rd W=$13.80 4-SOUL 3-BUFFERING |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-SHOCKING 6-SO YOU THINK 1st W=$1.60 8-SHOOT OUT |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-ALMINDORO 2-REKINDLED INTEREST 9-DIGITAL FORTRESS |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-TYPHOON TRACY 2nd W=$2.00 3-CULMINATE 8-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-CATAPULTED 6-SHELLSCRAPE 8-SET FOR FAME |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-DEMERIT 2nd W=$4.00 12-WE’RE GONNA ROCK 9-WOORIM |
| RACE 5: MACKINNON STAKES 2000M GROUP 1 WFA |
| Tips: 1-SHOCKING 6-SO YOU THINK 1st W=$1.60 8-SHOOT OUT |
| Others: 4,12,7 Pace: EVEN Leaders : 4-GINGA DUDE Handy : 2-METAL BENDER, 5-RAINBOW STYLING, 6-SO YOU THINK, 7-DESCARADO, 11-RED COLOSSUS Back : 1-SHOCKING, 3-C'EST LA GUERRE, 8-SHOOT OUT, 9-KIDNAPPED, 10-TRUSTING, 12-FAINT PERFUME Chances: 1-SHOCKING is last year’s Melbourne Cup winner who has gone up a grade this time in and been competitive in all of his WFA runs. Form this time in has been close to faultless. Ran on very well 1st up in the Liston. Suited by swoopers track when launched over the top of them in the Makybe Diva. Got cramped for room as he often does at Caulfield in the Underwood. Was muddled up in the field in the Turnbull before weaving his way through and not beaten much in a three way finish – thought is if he got to the outside in that race he would have won. Flew home in the Caulfield Cup after wobbling around the Caulfield turn again. Smashing Flem record – 5 starts, 4 wins and 1 second – and we are talking the Lexus, Melbourne Cup, Makybe Diva, Turnbull – all top notch races in capacity fields – there are no easy pickings there. Handles it wet just fine – in fact he may even go better on rain affected ground. The real question is, as always with Cup runners into the Mackinnon, is do they really want to win this race or is it just a warm up lap for Tuesday ? His chances mainly depend on how the track is racing, normal on pace Derby Day makes it tough, but if the rain comes and the track cuts up and they are swooping then think he is actually the one to beat in this and could upset the favourite. Strong chance. 4-GINGA DUDE won with a touch of dominance last start in the Coogny and is worthy of respect even up against this lot. Fitter for the 4 runs in and sometimes the fresh horse on the scene can pinch this race in a field when many are just doing warm up laps for Tues, or have missed their main spring goals. Jockey is seriously flying at the moment too- follow him this week. Excellent wet tracker, but fine on the dry as well. His chances come down a lot to how the track is racing, if we get the Derby Day on pacer bias then he is a sneaky upset chance in this. Even if not, really liked the last start win, he kicked full of running and suspect he is going to be competitive in this. Rough. 3rd W=$15.60 6-SO YOU THINK needs no introduction as the current super star of Australian racing and potential super freak. Was never going to lose the Cox Plate when he sat and stalked the leader last start. Flattened down and went for home and left the rest of the field in his wake. Was actually surprised though by how close the placegetters got – they were actually closing on him on the line, and this one was going full tilt. Drawn to sit and stalk again, but watch the media for reports – cause everyone is wondering if they are going to ride him a bit colder today and try and get him to settle and stay in preparation for a possible run in the Cup on Tuesday. Wet track is a slight issue for him, if solid rain comes a slow track or worse would see him vulnerable. This race has seen quite a few short priced favourites upset over the years, but it has usually been the B and C grade WFA types who have missed their main spring goals and are heading for consolation prizes. Actually think he is slightly vulnerable here today – he has met his main spring target and they are probably going to tinker with him a little to fine tune him for the Cup. Note that he has beat ZIPPING a little over 1L last start and there was nothing between ZIPPING and SHOCKING in the Turnbull, so there might not actually be much between the (1) and this one. Obviously the one to beat, but just think if you are the type to plonk large wads of cash on short priced favourites last start was the day – not today. One to beat. 1st W=$1.60 8-SHOOT OUT has been toughing it out and grinding away all spring and he has been in the finish of pretty much every spring feature WFA race. Trainer likes them hard and fit, there will be no shortage of kms in his legs going into the Cup on Tues. Finished on OK in the Cox Plate, and suspect MV is probably not his track. Was closing nicely on the (6) 2nd up in the Memsie. Handles it wet. He is going to be much better suited back to Flem and as always won’t be far away – especially if the track is favouring those running on. Rough chance, probably finishes 3rd or 4th though. 4th W=$11.70 Place: 7-DESCARADO relished the very heavy track in the Caulfield Cup when tough, on pace win crossing form outside barrier. Got caught up in ferocious speed battle here start before that in the Turnbull when dropped out badly at first Melbourne run – and you can guess which of the two runs was the one we had some money on. Big difference is of course into a WFA race here – off a light weight in a handicap, so he meets the (1) a substantial 3.5 kgs worse off for a 2.5L defeat. He will sit handy and put himself into the race, but you just wonder if he might need a really wet track to show his absolute best. Are we really going to get that much rain by 2pm Sat ? Doesn’t look well weighted. Prefer place. 2nd W=$10.10 12-FAINT PERFUME is one of Bart’s who gets to wear the dud 2nd set of Dato Tan colours with the red sleeves instead o the pretty yellow ones. Dominant 3YO filly who just simply has not gone on with it as a 4YO. 1st two runs this time in were pretty awful, no excuses at all. Turnbull run was actually OK, she finished on OK, but stopped about 100M out and plenty ran past her. Bombed out big time in the Caulfield Cup when did have some support, jockey said she got fired up with the blinkers on and over raced inside runners. Note that the blinkers go straight back off again today. If she recaptured her form she would of course be a factor in this. Suspect she might finally improve today – Turnbull Stakes run was a sign things were starting to turn around, but do just wonder if she is eventually going to be better as a miler than a stayer? Expect some improvement today – value place chance. Sacking: 2-METAL BENDER has been going along OK, but finding one better most starts. Should handle it wet OK if the rain comes. Solid effort in the Underwood, ridden quieter and finished off really strongly in the Turnbull. Didn’t look suited in the Caulfield Cup with that weight, and inside was not the place to be. Drawn inside here again and probably settles close to the speed – but will the inside be any better here today?. Looks held against this lot at the moment, probably finishes 3rd /4th/5th and not far off them, but looks held. No 3-C'EST LA GUERRE is a grand old stager that we have been poking fun at for years now. Thankfully when he finally decided to win a race after 3 years of trying he did it in Sydney so that didn’t cost us anything. Very thoughtful. Has a habit of looming into this races like he is going to be the winner – and not going on with it. Time and time again he does it – in fact he did it again last start, looming wide on the home turn like he had a lot of give, before finishing a well beaten 6th. Does seem to like it wet, but his only decent Australian run has been that 3rd in the Melbourne Cup of 2008. Worse thing is that he hogs a Melbourne Cup run from something more deserving. Not today and not ever !. 5-RAINBOW STYLING has been racing extremely consistently and shame he was not entered in either of the Cups, cause he has been racing well enough to be competitive. Box seated in the Naturalism and had a stack to give, luckily the gap came. Again the box seat in the JRA Cup which was an extremely strong form race – LINTON, PRECEDENCE, ALCOPOP. Sat just behind the speed in the Coogny and thought he was going to run into the race, but just held his ground. Suspect he may have actually struggled in the very heavy ground, even though he appeared to have previous wet track form. Should get a drier track here and will box seat again, but hard to see him being competitive against this lot at WFA. Rough place maybe at best. 9-KIDNAPPED is fitter for the 2 runs in but stepping up again in distance to the 2000M here today. Made solid ground in the Toorak, but there were a lot of good runs in that race and didn’t think his was overly impressive. Query on wet ground. Solid staying type who is probably getting set for something in a week or two and looks outclassed against this lot. No 10-TRUSTING is a bit of a grand pretender who is struggling to live up to his early promise. Keeps looming into his races like he is going to go whoosh, but the whoosh button seems to be a little jammed at the moment. Missed start in the Cox Plate and trailed the field the rest of the way, but he obviously has considerable concentration issues and is probably too busy updating his Facebook status during class. Not a viable betting proposition. No 11-RED COLOSSUS is a lightly raced staying type, but not against the top liners. Going along OK this time in, so not far from a win, but it is not going to be at WFA against the best horses in Australia. Entered for a suitable 1800M race on Tuesday – funny they would run him in this?. No Summary: This race can throw up some unusual results, there have been a few short priced favourites flop in this race over the years and a few long priced winners. Normally though it is because the horses that end up in this race are either just doing a warm up lap for Tuesday, so aren’t that serious about winning it, or have missed their main spring targets through poor form or injury and are not at their peak. Always worth watching out for fresh horses on the scene in this race. Bit different this year though - we have 1-SHOCKING and 6-SO YOU THINK who are pretty much the best two horses in the country at the moment. Smallish field in this race, and always a lot of drop back stayers does mean that on pacers can pinch this race, especially if you get the Derby Day leaders track. You would think 4-GINGA DUDE will run to a clear lead here and try to repeat his last start win, probably 5-RAINBOW STYLING, 6-SO YOU THINK stalking , and 7-DESCARADO the other on pacers. As long as they are running on OK actually think 1-SHOCKING is an upset chance here. He is just racing so well and excels at Flemington, drawn outside barrier is important he can get to the middle of the track and just do his own thing. 6-SO YOU THINK obviously the one to beat and quite likely will go on his winning way, just if they are using this as a fine tune there is always a chance something could go wrong and don’t think today is the day to go taking the short odds. 8-SHOOT OUT will be better suited back to Flem and as long as they are running on OK will get into the finish. Throw in the on pace roughie 4-GINGA DUDE, as often those types can steal this race. Should actually be a very interesting race – especially looking towards Tuesday and this is one of the most interesting Mackinnons we have had for a long time. One to risk: 7-DESCARADO 2nd W=$10.10 Roughie: 4-GINGA DUDE 3rd W=$15.60 The Key: How is the track racing coming into this race ? RESULTS : Wow. 6-SO YOU THINK slaughters them, going away from them, on a track that was getting soggier by the minute. Amazing performance - bring on the Melbourne Cup. |
| RACE 6: VICTORIA DERBY 2500M GROUP 1 3YO |
| Tips: 11-ALMINDORO 2-REKINDLED INTEREST 9-DIGITAL FORTRESS |
| Others: 3,18,1 Pace: SOLID Leaders : 6-YULALONA, 8-LUCKYI'MBAREFOOT, 13-KIRINATA Handy : 1-RETRIEVE, 4-SMOKIN' JOEY, 5-PRAECIDO, 11-ALMINDORO, 14-PERFECT PECS, 16-ULUNDI, 17-ABSOLUTELYAWESOME (emerg), 19-ACCLAIMED CHAOS (emerg) Back : 2-REKINDLED INTEREST, 3-LION TAMER, 7-KUDAKULARI, 9-DIGITAL FORTRESS, 10-SHOOTOFF, 12-COSMONAUT, 15-TALE OF THUNDER, 18-SHADOWOFEXCELLENCE (emerg), 20-KERCHINGS (emerg) Chances: 2-REKINDLED INTEREST finally stepped up and showed us what he can do last start. Prior to that we got 4 incredibly teasing, identical runs in a row when he got too far back and flashed home late. Quality win last start, he was in a tussle with the (3) most of the way down the straight, but he drew away from him nicely on the line. Important to note the jockey change last start too – and same jockey stays on today. He settled much more forward last start and that made all the difference, he could put himself into the race at the right time. He has always promised that he would go bang and win the Derby in a decisive manner, and his form is starting to look right at the right time. Winner of the AMMI Vase is the right form for this race. Only query with him is a wet track, he did run on OK in 1st two runs this time in on wet tracks, but was SCR from Norman Robinson so you would think the feeling is he probably doesn’t ideally want it worse than dead. Drawn nice middle barrier to sit and swoop down the middle of the track and deserves to be favourite here. One to beat. 3-LION TAMER has been going along nicely, made solid late ground 2 starts ago in Sydney and then last start ended up leading and he kicked and showed some fight in the straight, and it took a bit of a while for the (2) to get past him. Handles it wet if the rain comes. But he has drawn barrier (18) today – hard to see them going forward from that barrier? and expect he will drop well back. Hard to see him beating home the (2) from last start, same weight terms, similar distance, but he did fight on well and his last 2 runs suggest he is starting to peak at the right time for this. If they drop him back, and they are running on down the middle of the track he would rate a rough chance in this. Rough. 1st W=$12.90 9-DIGITAL FORTRESS has been doing everything right this time in as he goes through his classes. Run on strong finishing type who is suited drawn out a little, he can drop back and come home down the middle of the track here which may be the racing pattern. Does meet the (1) 1.5kgs worse off for being beaten last start, but really liked the way this one worked home and expect there might be more improvement to come. Does have solid wet track form if the rain comes. Like that he has winning form coming into this 1-1-3 – he seems to be on an upward spiral, whereas many of these are getting well beaten. We are rating this one a solid chance – though watch the racing pattern, he won’t be much good on a leader’s track, but if they are winning coming down the middle of the track he looks a pretty solid bet to us. Strong chance. 4th W=$7.20 11-ALMINDORO is a maiden trying to win a Derby, but it has been done before and his form is pretty darn good. Only the 4 starts, going up in distance each start and you would have to say there is probably more improvement to come still. Really like the way he has stuck on last 2 starts, both times when he has been headed they have not ran away from him and he has kicked on well. Prefect draw here, nice barrier, he does race handy, he is going to get a sweet run into this race and will probably look the winner within the last 200M – will just be a case of whether something comes out and runs him down. Suspect he is going to be extremely hard to run down over the Flem 2500M. If the track is favouring those racing on speed you would rank him a clear top pick. Solid chance. Place: 1-RETRIEVE has been doing everything right this time in, but the question is has he been doing everything right for too long now? He has been up since early July, had 7 starts so the question has to be asked how much he has left to give this spring? Been extremely consistent and switched from Melb to Sydney and back to Melb again. Will handle all conditions, may even go better if wet. Winner of the Norman Robinson is the form you want for this race, plus he gets a weight drop on his rivals from that race. Looks perfectly set going into this. Drawn an inside barrier, can race on the speed and make his own luck – but will the inside be the place to be if the rain comes and the track cuts up ? Despite ticking all the form line boxes, and getting the weight advantage we just think that those around him in the Norman Robinson might have more improvement to come than this one. He may have handled the very heavy track better than them last start, and suspect they may end up beating him home today. Absolutely nothing wrong with form, but we are going to rate a place chance only. Place. 3rd W=$3.90 4-SMOKIN' JOEY was well supported last start and looked ready to ping, he had to work a little to go forward, but stopped extremely quickly when the pressure went on. Trainer has assumed he has swallowed his tongue so note the gear change today with tongue tie going on. Form prior to that was excellent, baulked for a run 1st up when finishing on OK on a heavy track, loomed but burdened under a big weight 2nd up at Caulfield, and never a hope when finishing on well from outside barrier on a leader’s track in the Caulfield Guineas. His run in the Caulfield Guineas was just as good as the (2), and the expectation was he would step up and prove to be a genuine Derby contender in the AAMI Vase. Just a bit hard to know exactly what happened, guess you should always forgive them one bad run and his form before that was excellent for this. But is hard to back him with any confidence. Has drawn a nice barrier, and can go forward and get the run of the race here, so will probably return to the type of form his has shown previously. Just hard to get over enthused. Place. 5-PRAECIDO has been competitive in the Sydney 3YO staying races, worked home OK in the Spring Champion Stakes and likewise before that in the Gloaming. No run down here so tough to line him up, though last year’s Derby winner skipped the Melbourne lead up races as well. Invariably the winner of this race comes through either the Norman Robinson or the AAMI Vase, so that is the safest way to go when betting. He will probably settle mid field and work home OK, won’t be too far off them. Place 2nd W=$18.90 6-YULALONA is a tough, on pace stayer who has been very consistent in every start – yet to finish further back than 4th in 6 starts. Handles the wet just OK. Sat on the speed last start, hit the lead rounding the turn and showed some kick. Was safely beaten home though by the (1), (9), (11) – and hard to see him turning the tables on all 3 of them in this race. He may go better on a firmer track though. From outside barrier you would still think they will go forward and he should be able to work across this field and get to the lead. A lot will depend on how the track is racing, if the leaders are sticking on probably give him a rough chance in this, if the track is cutting up and they are running on down the middle it is going to be a tough ask. But he is fit, in form, probably rolls to the lead so is a rough chance. Prefer sold place chance though. 17-ABSOLUTELYAWESOME (emerg) is a lightly raced one showing some ability, but with only the 3 starts this races looks to have come up too quickly. Well supported to win maiden so stable obviously has an opinion of him, and fought on very well at Caulfield 2 runs back. Seemed to be a little slow out and got lost back in the field in the AAMI Vase, when we did expect he was going to run a little better. Even run there, but nothing to get excited about. Seems to handle it wet. Drawn a nice barrier and he can lob just off the speed here, so if he makes the field he is probably a place chance as he does seem to have some untapped potential. Place. 18-SHADOWOFEXCELLENCE (emerg) is showing a lot of potential, but unfortunately he reared at the start in the Norman Robinson and missed the start badly – so that was the end of that. Very promising run here start before that when finishing on strongly and one that looks to have a lot of improvement to come. Really hard to line him up because of the last start – you would have to say winning the Derby at your 4th start is a tough ask. Drawn out and probably drops well back. Unlikely to make the field anyway as 2nd emergency, but if he does put him in as a solid place chance – his form before last start was pretty good, and he is likely to start way over the odds on the tote as an emergency with a last start 9th. Strong place chance. SCR Sacking: 7-KUDAKULARI is one of Bart’s who is showing a little bit of ability, but not really getting seriously into the finishes of his races. Didn’t really finish off his race in the Caulfield Guineas or Guineas Prelude. Last start he loomed on the home turn , had every chance but didn’t finish off his race. Has had the 4 runs in and maybe some improvement might come with distance and bigger track, but simply isn’t going well enough at the moment. No 8-LUCKYI'MBAREFOOT is a proven wet tracker who has been getting beaten in the weaker lead up races. Solid mid winter form on very wet tracks and obviously given a freshen up and set for some bigger spring targets. Stuck on OK here on pace 2 starts back., but easily held in the not very Classic Geelong Classic last start. Likely leader here hard against the rails, so guess elevate if the on pacers are sticking on and it is a very wet track – but we expect it will be an even or runners on track and most of the rain might not come till later in the day. Form not good enough. No 10-SHOOTOFF has been safely held in his lead up runs against many of these. Was finishing on well behind the (1) in Sydney 2 starts back, and not beaten that far in the AAMI Vase last start. Worth nothing he did start $151 in the Spring Champion, he had shown very little form at all in his few runs before that this time in. Even effort in the AAMI Vase, probably better suited back to a bigger track but hard to see him improving enough to beat home all those who finished in front of him last start. No 12-COSMONAUT is another one’s of Bart’s who is a maiden and barely doing enough in his races to keep us interested. Dropping well back and running on OK – but just OK. The runs of the (2) and the (4) were much better out of the Caulfield Guineas and like his stable mate he loomed on the turn in the AAMI Vase but failed to finish off his race. Will drop well back from outside barrier. Hard to get enthused. No 13-KIRINATA comes through the Not Very Classic Geelong Classic which is usually a horrible form guide for this race (save the $150 winner 2 years ago). It looked a even worse race than usual this year. Well beaten in that, and only a provincial Class 1 winner the start before. Seems to handle it wet, will race on pace – probably get caught out wide from barrier here, but form doesn’t look anywhere near good enough. No 14-PERFECT PECS has had only the 3 starts and this race looks to have come a bit too quickly for him. Slogged out the finish in the Geelong Classic, but we don’t think much of that form. Drawn very wide and another who is going to go forward here so likely to be caught very wide. Unknown on wet ground. Passing. 15-TALE OF THUNDER has only had the 3 runs this time in so probably has a bit of improvement to come. Maiden, who was going along OK before last start when didn’t give a yelp in the AAMI Vase. Drawn an OK barrier. Obviously not a winning chance, but if you want to throw something silly at long odds into trifectas and first fours for a big collect maybe try this one – was going along OK before last start flop, drawn a nice barrier so might run better than expected. 16-ULUNDI is having his 9th start this preparation, save a 2 month freshen up, but still that’s a pretty long hard campaign for a 3YO. Really hasn’t shown much form either, form over winter was good, but they opted to take the break and he hasn’t got back to where he was. Set a ferocious pace tearing along in the lead 3 starts back at MV, didn’t do anything in the Bill Stutt, and stuck on OK in the Norman Robinson but well held by many going around here. No form. No 19-ACCLAIMED CHAOS (emerg) set the pace at Geelong but was well held and win before that was in a 58 rater which is as about as weak as you can get. Probably goes forward if gets into this field, has outside barrier so would add to the pressure up front. Other than that no interest. No 20-KERCHINGS (emerg) set the pace in the Norman Robinson but was safely held by plenty going around here. Maiden, no form, though the jockey is riding bloody well at the moment so keep an eye on him during Cup Week. No Summary: Normally this is a great race to have a confident bet in as it has one of the strongest historical form lines in racing. Invariably, the winner of this race comes out of the first 3 placegetters in the Norman Robinson or the AAMI Vase. Sure the last two years have been wipe outs for this formula, but prior to that a whopping 18 out of the last 20 winners of this race has been in the first 3 home in those races – and the two exceptions were a 4th in the AAMI Vase and STLYISH CENTURY who came off a Cox Plate placing. Incredibly strong form line. In fact prior to last 2 years last 6 winners had all been in the first three home from the AAMI Vase. You can almost just scratch anything that didn’t run in the 1st 3 in those two races. Other thing to take into account here is that we have a capacity field, there are quite a few who can go forward so it is likely to be quite a genuinely run race. There is a good chance the rain will have settled in by this race, and whilst the track might not be overly affected it, it could be raining and windy and really tough conditions. Think you want to go for a tough staying type on that basis. Solid speed here - 6-YULALONA, 8-LUCKYI'MBAREFOOT, 13-KIRINATA can all go forward, and there are a few who need to work across from outside barriers so the speed should be pretty fast early on. The likes of 4-SMOKIN' JOEY, 11-ALMINDORO, 14-PERFECT PECS, 16-ULUNDI will probably be sitting handy. We are pretty keen to have something on the maiden 11-ALMINDORO each way here. Should still have a lot of improvement to come, and he just seems to stick on really well so likely to be suited under the conditions. Can see him sitting just behind the speed and running to the lead around the 200M mark and slogging it out – just a matter of whether one of the more flashy types can run over the top of him. 2-REKINDLED INTEREST the obvious danger, he looks ready to step up now and won last start with some class. Probably just wants the track to stay dead or better though. Giving a solid chance to 9-DIGITAL FORTRESS as well, who will be suited if they are finishing hard down the middle of the track. Happy to back all 3 to win – suspect the winner comes from these 3 chances. Safest way to go though might be quinellas with the (11) into the other main chances for a nice collect. One to risk: 1-RETRIEVE 3rd W=$3.90 Roughie: 3-LION TAMER 1st W=$12.90 The Key: Weather conditions could make this quite tough – go for hard, tough staying types. RESULTS : Well we got the weather conditions right ! Just picked the wrong horse. 11-ALMINDORO goes to the lead but gives in quickly in the straight, whereas 3-LION TAMER excels in the going and runs away from them. Huge run from the 2nd placed 5-PRAECIDO who absolutely flies home. |
| RACE 7: MYER CLASSIC 1600M GROUP 1 F+M |
| Tips: 2-TYPHOON TRACY 2nd W=$2.00 3-CULMINATE 8-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED |
| Others: 12, 6 Pace: ON PACE DICTATES Leaders : 3-CULMINATE Handy : 1-HOT DANISH, 2-TYPHOON TRACY, 8-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED, 11-BELIEVE 'N ACHIEVE Back : 4-ALLEZ WONDER, 5-PALACIO DE CRISTAL, 6-SACRED CHOICE, 7-KATIE LEE, 9-MARQUARDT, 10-LOVEMELIKEAROCK, 12-YOSEI Chances: 2-TYPHOON TRACY is the Australian Horse of the Year from last year who had been ambitiously / stubbornly set for the Cox Plate. Has been contesting the top class open WFA races and going along OK, but owners made the wise decision that they weren’t going to beat the favourite in the Cox Plate and time to head her back to this race, which was almost certainly the correct decision. Pretty much unbeatable up to 1600M against her own sex and gets the set weight scale today so should have her opposition well and truly covered. Guess the difference is last spring she was already thrashing her female rivals in the lead up runs, so she looked a pretty good thing at $2.20 running against opposition she had already been beating. Today she is coming into this from a different form line, and she hasn’t been winning so you can’t actually be sure she is going as well as last year. Just think that means you probably want slightly better odds than last year – more like $2.60 or so. Nothing wrong with last 3 runs, she has ran extremely well in unsuitable races so looks the one to beat back to this sort of race. She is better on a dry track though, so again what odds are value comes into play if we are getting serious rain later in the day. One to beat. 2nd W=$2.00 3-CULMINATE is a tough on pace NZer who put up a pretty tough performance to win last start sticking to the inside which was probably the worse going and holding off a few swooping from back in the field. Solid 1600M form and if the serious rain has come elevate her chances substantially. She should still have improvement to come too with only the 2 runs this time in. Suspect she will get the lead here, the (2) might just sit off a little as that one was previously being trained to settle and run longer distances. If there are any chinks with the (2) this is probably her main danger, you can just see her rolling to the lead here on a track that is rain affected and cutting up like last time and she runs out a strong 1600M. Strong chance. 6-SACRED CHOICE is a Sydney miler who has down well to run a Epsom placing last start. Had the 4 runs in, so hard and fit and ready for this, and yet to be unplaced over the 1600M is a good sign. Although she does have a heavy track win to her name her wet track form is a bit indifferent. She will settle back and need them to be running on and a solid tempo. Like her form and like that she is hard and fit for the 1600M so some rough chance. Rough. 1st W=$22.00 8-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED has been racing very consistently and could have easily won the Rupert Clarke and the Blazer, she was right in the finish of both those races. She wasn’t beaten that far at Caulfield last start and she was badly baulked for a run just after they straightened which seemed to totally throw her off. Yet to be unplaced at Flem. Slow track should be no worry. She has been very consistent this time in and think she might run a race today – she can camp just off the speed and there isn’t a strong pace here. Solid rough chance. 12-YOSEI is the wild card into this race, the in form 3YO filly with no weight. You would think if the rain comes that weight difference is going to be a big factor. Form this time in has been pretty good, flew home 1st and 2nd up at Caulfield, and then taken to Sydney which didn’t work out. Got dream smother on rails in the Thousand Guineas and was always going to win when the gap came. Has to be said the rails was the better ground that day and she did get a perfect run. Will run the 1600M right out, is fit, in winning form, handles it wet and no weight. Plenty to like. Query might just be how far she drops back and how much of a lead she is giving some pretty good on pacers. Likely to start well supported and not sure that represents value, Suspect she might run on threateningly, but give one of them too big a start. Chance. Place: 5-PALACIO DE CRISTAL is a strong finishing Sydney sider who was also scratched from the Tristarc because of the very heavy track. That means she is going into this feature mile 2nd up and up 200M – surely not ideal and probably not the plan to begin with. Solid win 1st up when sneakily stuck close to the rail. First glance at her form suggests she doesn’t handle wet tracks , 3 on slow for 0-0-0, but that includes two 4ths when she has come from well back so she is probably not hopeless in the going. Back marker who needs them to be running on (should be OK), but also needs a solid tempo up front and not sure she is going to get that. That missed run is a real concern. Prefer place. 9-MARQUARDT is a back marker who needs a bit of luck in her races, she always seems to be running on too late. Finished on very strongly last start at Caulfield. Probably not entirely comfortable in really wet ground. Should be fitter for the 3 runs in. This is her 1st time at the 1600M – and guess that is the query – like tough 1600M proven mares into this race – especially if we end up on a rainy, windy wet track. She always gives her opposition a huge start so suspect she may be running on again too late. Prefer place. Sacking: 1-HOT DANISH is a top class Sydney sprinter who had a bit of a dud campaign down here last spring when beaten short priced favourite two starts in a row and needs to make up for it this spring. Despite her good wet track form on paper trainer prefers not to run her on seriously wet tracks and she was SCR from Caulfield 2 weeks back because of the very heavy track. Ran on OK behind BLACK CAVIAR last start. Looks like the original plan was to head her towards the Patinack Sprint next Sat, but she might have been scared off by the two dominant sprinters we have going around at the moment. Just means she goes into this mile race with a funny preparation – 3 x 1200M lead up runs which is a concern. 1600M is as far as she wants too – worth nothing that she has only missed a place 6 times in 28 starts and 3 of them were over the 1600M. Guess they were all in tough feature miles though so probably excusable. Actually happy to take her on here, late change to this race, possibility of a wet track and she has failed to produce her best in Melbourne before. Don’t believe us – here is a quote from the trainer 16/10/2010 : “he would not run the seven-year-old mare on anything worse than a dead track...She won't be able to get up to the mile [of the Myer Classic] without running in the Tristarc,” Likely to be hitting a rain affected track by the time this race goes. Think it is worth risking her today. No 3rd W=$9.30 4-ALLEZ WONDER is one of Bart’s who should be fitter for the 2 runs in and did run a pretty good race 1st up at Caulfield. Her strike rate is appalling though – only 3 wins from 23. Still think she was lucky to win the Toorak last year when she got a perfect split at the right time. Should have improvement and there is probably a win in her soon, but she definitely does not handle wet tracks and if we believe the all seeing, all knowing, radar of the BOM the rain should have set in by now. Passing. 7-KATIE LEE is a highly rated NZer with a pretty impressive win strike rate and 3 times winners over the 1600M. Sent out favourite last week at MV in an weaker field and failed to produce, guess it was her 1st run in Australia and she was lumped with a big weight so you can make some excuses. You might see some improvement today so probably worth considering her as a place chance for trifecta and first fours, but very hard to get enthused coming off such a poor run last week. Passing. 10-LOVEMELIKEAROCK is down from Sydney and should be fitter for the 3 runs in. Big betting drifter last start at Caulfield, looks like she is probably a bit of a query on a wet track. She plugged away OK last start, but didn’t think it was a particularly strong field. Hard to get enthused against this lot on set weights. No 11-BELIEVE 'N ACHIEVE actually ran on OK late last start at Caulfield. Handles the wet ground and used to race on speed, but has drifted back last 2 starts. Suspect she will settle a lot handier today. Has some ability and is never that far away from the money, but looks outclassed here at set weights. Likely to improve so maybe a rough place chance at best. No 4th W=$17.30 Summary: Normally you can bet with confidence in these races, these mares have all been racing against each other and should hold their form. No doubt that 2-TYPHOON TRACY is the one to beat, but don’t think she is over the line. Last year she had been winning against her female opposition and thrashing them so looked a morale, this year she is probably going just as well, but you never quite know until they line up against each other, and with the switch in campaigns and the unsuitable wet track – so just think you want better odds than last year. Smallish field and don’t think there will be that much speed here. 3-CULMINATE probably rolls to the lead suspect 2-TYPHOON TRACY may sit just off them as she has been taught to settle back now. 8-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED, 11-BELIEVE 'N ACHIEVE likely to push forward. Suspect the on pacers can dictate this race and that may make it difficult for those running on . 2-TYPHOON TRACY definitely the one to beat, but she is definitely beatable. 3-CULMINATE likely to roll along on the speed here and might prove hard to run down, especially if we get a wet track. Best roughie is definitely 8-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED who has been racing in sensational form this time in and forget last run when baulked for a run and lost all momentum. Probably back the (3) and (8) to win and take trifectas with the 2 / 3, 8 / ….. and 2 / ….. / 3,8 - you can fill in the dots. One to risk: 1-HOT DANISH 3rd W=$9.30 Roughie: 8-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED The Key: Suspect the on pacers will dictate this race. RESULTS : Upset result, but we did give the winner 6-SACRED CHOICE a solid chance and 2-TYPHOON TRACY starts silly odds on a very unsuitable wet track. |
|