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The standard offer is deposit $50, get a $100 free bet, but this special offer is valid for three days only and closes when they jump in the Melbourne Cup.
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| FLEMINGTON: DERBY DAY - 3rd Nov 2012 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: FINE - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): Fair bit of rain about Thursday easing to showers on Friday and fine weather for Saturday so the track should be on the improve and the better side of dead come race time. Rail goes back to the TRUE position here and most punters know that at the kick off to these feature race weeks that the track can sometimes favour leaders on the best ground. However, we haven’t had a leaders track on Derby Day for quite a few years now and should get even racing with every horse having its chance. Whatever racing pattern occurs on Derby Day normally sticks for most of the week so pay attention to where the winners are making their runs. Down the straight they still tend to come a few horses off the inside most of the time so maybe look for something drawn out that will get a clear crack at them. Derby Day is always a great day for a bet. Most of these have well exposed form, most have been running against each other, so just line them up and bet with confidence. Few here at odds we like so we are going to have confident win bets on them and let’s double up to a $100 outlay. Going to be interesting to see what one of our favourite horses, Race 5: 3-ALCOPOP does with a change from the regular jockey to a big name jockey and surprised there is such an odds difference between him and the Cox Plate winner considering the margin was so narrow last time they met. RESULTS: Well that was one tough day for punters. It didn't start out too bad, but it got a bit weird towards the end of the day with quite a few "Who on earth was that?" winners. Track raced fairly, they can win on speed or running on, but if you got the right run on the speed you were very hard to run down. Down the straight there has been a pattern that although they are coming off the rails it is the horse closest to the inside that is winning. Tips went OK, but the poor Betting Portfolio just couldn't get on the score board. BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 6-EXCLUDED $10 EW X QUINELLA: Race 2: 6-EXCLUDED# 1,4,9 x $2 = $6 X / 1st 4-KELINNI W=$8.60 This one has really done very little wrong all spring, but the odds seem to be getter longer every time he starts. Hard and fit which is the type you want for this race, beat home many of his rivals here last start even if some of them didn’t have much luck. Much better horse at Flemington and whilst there isn’t much speed here the jockey is wise enough to let him settle a bit closer if required. Looks nice each way value especially as the top weight international the (1) will get well backed and start under the odds and does look quite beatable to us. Each way at around $6. Considering we often make this one Lay of the Day he must be looking good today. Throw some quinellas on as well as if the (1) isn’t in the finish it is going to pay well, and these staying races are always more even and competitive than they seem, so value quinellas with the on pacers the (4) and even the roughie 9-DAME CLAIRE who might stick on pretty well here on speed. RESULTS: Drops out the back which is exactly where we didn't want him to be, but was beaten a long way out. One of the fit on pacers kicks through to win a nice odds. BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 8-UNION GAP $5 EW X Quite a few in this race are on trial at the 1600M, this one is as well but looks the most likely to run out a strong mile. Fitter for the 3 runs in, looks to be suited by the rise in distance and great run here last start when missed the start and came home very strongly late – easily going past SUPER COOL who has since gone onto bigger and better things. Drawn out to switch out and have a clear crack at them, just needs enough speed on here and for them to be running on. Nice each way bet to start the day, currently $6 on fixed odds, but suspect will start closer to $10 on the tote on the day in a very even race. RESULTS: Stop, start race and this one is out the back of the field and just can't sprint when they go - runs on OK for 4th which is not much good for each way punters. BEST WIN: Race 8: 5-SPIRIT OF BOOM, 2-GOLDEN ARCHER $10 WIN 2nd 5-SPIRIT OF BOOM W=$7.60 These two both look way over the odds in what seems a bit of a poor quality Salinger / Yellow Glen Stakes. Both are race fit, racing extremely well, and most importantly both have excellent Flemington straight track form. Firm track suits, they are drawn out to get a clear run, they just need them to run along a little bit in front and there isn’t a huge amount of speed in this, but still happy to back both of them straight out at over $10. RESULTS: Both these runners start around the $8 mark, 2-SPIRIT OF BOOM comes with a withering finish to only just, just miss, but he does tend to do that a lot down the Flemington straight. BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 10-OASIS BLOOM $5 EW X QUINELLA: Race 7: 10-OASIS BLOOM#1,5,11,13 x $1 = $4 X / 2nd 11-SOFT SAND W=$9.80 Really liking the $10 on offer about this one. Fair enough it is a class field, but has drawn well, will roll forward in a race with not much speed, will be better off here back at Flemington on a big track as is a big rolling horse and fought on well last start under a big weight. Looks a solid each way bet sticking on on-speed. Should be in the finish and take quinellas with the main danger the (1) and a few value chances in the (5), (11) and (13) RESULTS: Just gets shuffled back on the inside and has to take an extremely narrow gap on the rails. Hits the lead about 100M out in a bunched finish but just gets swamped towards the line to finish 4th. Big striding horse who probably needs to be outside horses and given time to roll. Keep following. BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 9-SUBIASO $6.50 EW X Really liked the run of this one in the Norman Robinson, and even though he didn’t make it into the placings which is the traditional form line for the Derby, he was close enough for us. Held up for runs at the back of the field, baulked for a run at a crucial stage and was still coming home hard. Probably should have gone close to winning. Strong finishing type drawn well and could cause the upset in the main race, so have something each way at $17. RESULTS: Gets perfect run a few back on the rails but never looks likely. DAILY DOUBLE: Races 6,8 : 1,4,8,9 / 2,5,9 x $1 = $12 2nd 4-SUPER COOL W=$6.10 / 2nd 2-SPIRIT OF BOOM W=$7.60 Doubling up here on some of the other bets, but going to be plenty of value in the Daily Double if there is a result away from the favourite in the Derby, and even more value in the second leg where the short priced favourite the (6) just looks far, far too short. RESULTS: Actually not far off here at all, the first leg looms like the winner but runs out of puff and the 2nd leg flies home late to just miss. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 8: 6-HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME at around $1.95 8th W=$3.10 fav Apart from the incredibly annoying joined up words name this one just looks far, far too short in the sprint race. Lightly raced, with good win strike rate, front running sprinter, but he really didn’t beat that much last start at Caulfield, he has to contend with the straight 1200M here for the 1st time, he goes up considerably in weight, and even though there doesn’t seem to be much pressure up front it is really hard to lead all the way down the Flem 1200M. Can just see something coming over the top of it and looks really silly odds. Happy to risk. RESULTS: Opens up at very silly odds and just keeps drifting and drifting and drifting. Never in doubt and the first horse beaten. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. QUADRELLA: Races 6,7,8,9 : 1,4,8,9 / 1,10 / 1,2,3,5,9 / 4,8 x $5 = 6.25% 2nd 4-SUPER COOL W=$6.10 / X / 2nd 2-SPIRIT OF BOOM W=$7.60 / 1st 4-FAWKNER W=$3.00 There is big pool for the quaddie on Sat, so might as well have a crack. Try to get off to a value start in the feature race if you can get the short priced favourite beaten. There are a lot of chances in the 2nd leg, but stick to those that you know will run a strong 1600M and those that will race on speed as there isn’t much pace here – so the (1) and the (10), go wide in the straight race third leg and lots of value here if the very short priced favourite gets rolled and the (4) looks a stand out in the last, but throw in the (8) as well who will burn to the front and give you a run for your money. Probably want to spend more than $5, but that’s all that is left in this week’s kitty. RESULTS: Well the quaddie pays $126,000 with a upset in the Derby, but at least the stand out got home in the last ? RESULT: WIPE OUT SPENT: $100 RETURN: $0 NET: $-100 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 8-UNION GAP, 6-CRYSTAL WEB, 3-PROVERB Race 2: 6-EXCLUDED, 1-GATEWOOD, 9-DAME CLAIRE Race 3: 4-ZYDECO, 1-DEAR DEMI, 5-TRANSONIC Race 4: 1-SIZZLING, 11-NECHITA, 5-LANKAN RUPEE Race 5: 3-ALCOPOP, 7-OCEAN PARK, 4-DECEMBER DRAW Race 6: 4-SUPER COOL, 1-IT'S A DUNDEEL, 9-SUBIASO Race 7: 10-OASIS BLOOM, 1-STREAMA, 5-SKYERUSH Race 8: 5-SPIRIT OF BOOM, 2-GOLDEN ARCHER, 9-MISS MARX Race 9: 4-FAWKNER, 8-MCCLINTOCK, 9-MORANT |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-UNION GAP 6-CRYSTAL WEB 3-PROVERB 3rd W=$6.50 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-EXCLUDED 1-GATEWOOD 9-DAME CLAIRE |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-ZYDECO 1st W=$2.90 1-DEAR DEMI 5-TRANSONIC 3rd W=$15.10 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-SIZZLING 11-NECHITA 1st W=$5.00 5-LANKAN RUPEE |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-ALCOPOP 1st W=$5.20 7-OCEAN PARK 3rd W=$1.70 4-DECEMBER DRAW |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-SUPER COOL 2nd W=$6.10 1-IT'S A DUNDEEL 9-SUBIASO |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-OASIS BLOOM 1-STREAMA 5-SKYERUSH |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-SPIRIT OF BOOM 2nd W=$7.60 2-GOLDEN ARCHER 9-MISS MARX |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-FAWKNER 1st W=$3.00 8-MCCLINTOCK 9-MORANT |
| RACE 6: VICTORIA DERBY GROUP 1 2500M 3YO C+G |
| Tips: 4-SUPER COOL 2nd W=$6.10 1-IT'S A DUNDEEL 9-SUBIASO |
| Others: 8, 5, 14 Pace: GENUINE Leaders : 6-FIVEANDAHALFSTAR Handy: 2-JIMANDO, 3-HONORIUS, 4-SUPER COOL, 5-HVASSTAN, 10-BULLION EXPRESS, 12-COSTA NOVA (wide), 13-OUR DESERT WARRIOR (wide), 16-BATISTUTA Back: 1-IT'S A DUNDEEL, 7-ESCADO, 8-ELECTRIC FUSION, 11-MALABAR MAN, 14-NISOS, 15-RAWNAQ Chances: 1-IT'S A DUNDEEL was a sure fire good thing last week at Moonee Valley at odds of a $1.30. Oops. Super classy staying type with a smashing winning record and tasted defeat for the first time last week. Win in the Spring Champion was super impressive when PROISIR grabbed a break on him, but he zoomed home once he flattened out at an ultra-impressive rate. Last week at MV he was poised to go around the turn, but the (4) pinched a break on him and this one didn’t have much time to flatten out and go again. Now comes the big question. If the race was a little longer would he have stretched out and come flying over the top again like he did in the Spring Champion ? He did seem to wobble around the MV turn a little and no doubt he is going to be suited to a big track here with more room. The answer ? Really don’t know – but today you will get to find out. Guess the question is whether the odds on offer reflect the question mark there – if he was going to get moving again then he should win this, if the (4) has beat him fair and square then you gotta love the odds on offer about that one. Drawn in space, solid staying type, big field should be a genuine speed. Other question will be if he has come to the end of his preparation as often these Sydney runners do by this time in the spring. Most intriguing – you could watch the MV race a hundred times but you really just can’t tell what would have happened in another 100M. Strong chance. 4-SUPER COOL has been frustrating us all spring, as we tipped him prior to MV at his last two starts and even made him the Best Bet as well – and of course when we dropped off him he came out last week in the AAMI Vase and won with a touch of style. Go back and watch his 1st up win at Seymour to see why – he absolutely launched late over the top of them. Just whacked away a bit at Flemington, and then probably should have won at Caulfield when jockey took too long to squeeze through on the inside around the turn and he was coming home hard. Plenty to like about last start win, he was only just in front of the short priced favourite the (1) on the turn, they were both making runs at the same time, fair enough he railed better and he probably has a better sprint than that one, but really like the way he quickly dropped him and went to the line. As we said with the (1) the question is whether that one would have got moving again with another 100M to flatten out. But really like the win of this one, he can sit handy, he has the turn of foot to be a classy Derby winner (rather than a staying Derby winner), and think at very least he is going to burst clear at some stage in the straight and leave it up to the stayers to chase him down. Love the odds on offer considering he has beaten the favourite home last start and definite top pick for us. Strong chance. 2nd W=$6.10 5-HVASSTAN has been doing everything right all spring with gusty efforts. Sweeps around them and puts himself into the race very quickly, so has a very handy tactical turn of foot. Last start win was super tough, bustled up in the back of the small field and had to literally bull doze his way through the field to grab victory. Great ride to get out of trouble and showed how much grit and determination this one has – he is one tough bugger. No doubt the Norman Robinson is one of the two form races to look at, but just so hard to sort them out this year – very messy race and bunched finish. This guy is a winner, has the turn of foot to get into the race and has to be rated a strong chance. Chance. 4th W=$6.20 8-ELECTRIC FUSION seems to be rapidly improving and a lot to like about the last start run. Was stepping up in distance into the Norman Robinson, at only his fourth start, he did loom up like he was going to go ping and go straight past them, but laid in and did a few things wrong. Lost 2nd place on protest as a result. Should have a lot of improvement to come out of that run though and think he is probably close to the best of them coming through the Norman Robinson - bearing in mind it was a very messy race to line up. Drawn a nice barrier, looks to be on the up and think there is a lot of improvement to come here. Really like the Caulfield run. Strong chance. 9-SUBIASO is the other one we like coming through the Norman Robinson. He was baulked for a run at a crucial stage there at the back of the field, hooked out around them again and was coming home hard – finished fourth not beaten that far and was closing on them nicely – probably should have gone close to winning. Stepping up in distance there, only 4 runs this time in and looks like he wants a big track, distance and a genuinely run race for a strong finish which he is likely to get here. Drawn well, and just think he might have more improvement to come than some coming through that race. The first three home in the Norman Robinson or AAMI Vase are normally the ones to follow, but we will stretch the rule just a little to include narrow and unlucky fourths. Definitely the best rough chance in this and strong winning chance. Place: 2-JIMANDO had been going through spring really well until the last start hiccup. Well more like a respiratory infection than a hiccup, but anyway. Vet reported funny breathing noises and he pulled up lame, so bit surprised to see him going around again today. Always really hard to know with these ones if they are going to bounce back and recover from an issue. His form before that was excellent, he was wide all the way and fought on really, really well at Flemington and remember he was giving 3.5kgs to the (5) that day, was beaten < 1 length and will start three times the odds here. Chased hard in the Bill Stutt before that and solid win here before that. Flem form is good. We were really keen on him last start and the run was very out of character so not surprising reports of something being wrong. Drawn a nice barrier and can race handy here and make his own luck. Maybe the distance might be the slight query here. Very hard to line this one up, on weights and form before last start he is right in this, but hard to back with any confidence coming off a bad run. Maybe just keep him safe as he is capable of a boil over here. Rough. 3-HONORIUS is a Sydney visitor who was well held by the (1) in his runs up there. Was part of a pack finish in the Norman Robinson which is normally a really strong form line for this race, and the first three home from that race are normally the ones to follow into this. Just a bit hard to tell this year as it was a very messy race and a bunched finish so there really wasn’t much between them at all. Drawn inside and should get a cosy mid field run, just needs to get a split to run into it at the right time. Nothing wrong with his form, more seasoned than many of his rivals with 11 starts and ticks the first three home in the Norman Robinson or AAMI Vase box which is the way to go in this. Just tending away from him a little, can make stronger cases with those around him from Caulfield and prefer place. Place. 14-NISOS is one we have been following and have a bit of time for. Still a maiden but flew home late at first two starts this time in at Bendigo, then working home well in Adelaide out wide but gave those up front too big a start. Looked to be showing some potential and don’t think he was suited by the tempo in the AAMI Vase and was out the back all the way. Strong finisher for no name stable heading for Group 1 glory. Drawn a nice barrier, but likely to drop well back in the field so is going to need plenty of luck to find the gaps, but think he is the best of the long shots as his form is not hopeless and don’t think he was suited last start. Seems to have some ability. Outside rough chance. Sacking: 6-FIVEANDAHALFSTAR is a Sydney visitor who has bypassed all of the major lead up races to this – the Norman Robinson, the AAMI Vase, even the Spring Champion and the Geelong Derby Trial. There has barely been a Derby winner not come out of those races in the last 30 years so he definitely has history against him. Beaten small fields in weaker grade races last two starts in Sydney. Nice barrier and looks likely leader here, but just looks outclassed on form and history. No 1st W=$19.30 7-ESCADO is one we have been following all spring and have tipped a few times and we have pretty much had enough of him. Save for a bit of a mid-winter break he has been in work for a very long time. He just tends to drop a bit too far back in his races and he works to the line really well, but he has no dash, he just grinds away. He is always grinding away at the end of his races though. Dropped too far back at Caulfield and was coming home well behind the (5), did the same thing at Flemington when he was frustratingly coming on and coming on, just not doing it quickly enough. He took off very early and wide at Geelong and put himself into the race which was a good idea, but was covered to the line – although the winner from there is not going around here, which is shame, cause the winner of the Geelong Classic never, ever wins this race and gives us nice odds about the rest of the field. Despite going early just thought he had every chance last start. He will whack away OK, and won’t be far off them, maybe a rough place chance if this is a tough staying Derby, but had enough chances for us. No 10-BULLION EXPRESS is an on pacer who goes along just OK. Been beaten in much easier races and then set the speed last start in the AAMI Vase and was well covered by a few going around here. Draw outside, assume they might still want to go forward as racing handy is his normal racing pattern? So might put some early speed into this race. Hard to have as a factor though on his last start run. No 11-MALABAR MAN has only had the three starts which is very, very inexperienced going into this race. And he is a maiden !. Hasn’t been too far away in his maiden starts. But his run at Geelong was actually pretty good – he went early and wide around the turn at the same time as the (7) and he managed to outstay that one – and that one hasn’t been that far from these in the city races so you could make a wee little case for this one. Like the way he stuck on last start and should have plenty of improvement to come. Genius jockey on board too. But maiden, drawn wide, seems to prefer racing forward but guess they will drop back today and think he has too much against him today. Barrier was the turning point, would’ve rated a rough place chance otherwise. Keep an eye on him though after today, quite liked the last run. No. 12-COSTA NOVA has been plugging away in the same lead up races as many of these – but has been well covered. Plugged on well at Caulfield 3 starts back, but really well held at Flemington and he was one of the few who actually didn’t have unlucky stories out of the Norman Robinson. Drawn wide and likely to press forward so does seem to be some early pressure here. Looks held on form. No 13-OUR DESERT WARRIOR is another coming into this with only the 3 runs in and poor ol’ Gai has had a bit of a tough trot this spring, as has poor young Tom and his Gai’s best money back offers. His run at Geelong wasn’t too bad – he was held up badly at the back of the field for a run and finished on nicely when clear, but the jockey didn’t bother punishing him to the line as the first three had a big break so he probably should have finished a lot closer. Looks to have a bit of ability and upside so maybe just watch the market, suspect he may get specked at odds. Another who normally goes forward from an outside barrier and there are quite a few in that position. Geelong Classic form just about never, ever holds up into this race and there has been plenty of impressive winners of that race over the years who have failed to measure up here, yet alone well beaten unlucky 4ths. Will probably run a bit of a race, but prefer to risk. No 15-RAWNAQ is a Hayes runner and the stable really seem to struggle to find feature race horses at the moment. Fitter for the 3 runs in, and ran on OK at Caulfield, but then again so did about half of this field. Well held at Flemington last start by quite a few going around here and hard to see him being a factor today. No 3rd W=$113.00 16-BATISTUTA has only had the 3 starts and is coming off a restricted Swan Hill race which is not normally a traditional lead up race into the Derby. Probably races handy today from good barrier, and one of the few who is drawn OK so will at least be able to go forward without too much pressure but looks outclassed here. No Summary: This is probably our favourite race of the year to bet on, cause you don’t get a race anywhere in Australia with a stronger historical form line. Look back over the last 20 winners of this race, last 30 years even. See a pattern ? Last 20 years – 11 winners have been in the first three home in the AAMI Vase in their lead up run, 6 winners have been in the first three home in the Norman Robinson. It is pretty straight forward, just watch those two races, pick out the best runs and back them in the Derby. And it is not like we are talking short priced favourites either – the last 2 years there have been $13 winners in this race who were runners up in those races, and we tipped SANGSTER on top last year at healthy odds for that very reason – being the best run out of the Norman Robinson. Normally there is a highly spruiked and well backed winner of the Geelong Classic as well which just about never, ever wins this race, so was a bit disappointing the winner this year didn’t come on to give us better odds about the rest of the field – we did note it was well in betting early in the week. There are two types of Derby winners, the strong staying winner when there is a big field and a race run at a genuine tempo, and the classy turn of foot winner who probably doesn’t stay but has too much brilliance against the other 3YOs. In a big field this year the speed actually looks quite genuine, 6-FIVEANDAHALFSTAR should lead, but there are quite a few drawn wide who need to decide whether to go forward or drop back - 10-BULLION EXPRESS, 12-COSTA NOVA, 13-OUR DESERT WARRIOR. Sitting behind these should be the more favoured runners 2-JIMANDO, 3-HONORIUS, 4-SUPER COOL, 5-HVASSTAN. We are going to jump back on 4-SUPER COOL here. Almost certainly he cornered better than the favourite last start, but just like the way he pinched a break on him and seemed to be holding him to the line. Seems to be on a rapid improve, and the big plus is he can race midfield here and probably burst clear sometime in the straight and dare them to run him down. Just love that you can get 4 times the odds about him compared to the (1), even though he beat that one home last start. The short priced favourite the 1-IT'S A DUNDEEL the obvious danger, if he repeats his Spring Champion run he probably wins, suited back to a big track, just a matter of whether he gets that second wind again and chases them down or whether he gives them too big a start, or has had enough this time in. And there is a strong chance here at good odds to watch out for , the 9-SUBIASO who even though he didn’t make it into the first three in the Norman Robinson was very close up, finishing on hard after struggling to get clear. Respect for the 8-ELECTRIC FUSION too who we think was the other good run out of the Norman Robinson. Both the (8) and the (9) look over the odds to us. So the best two runs from the AAMI Vase, the (4) from the (1), from the best two runs from the Norman Robinson, the (9) from the (8) and let’ see how we go this year. Form a betting point of view probably going to back the (4), (8) and (9) straight out and loving the odds on offer. Good luck. One to risk: - Roughie: 14-NISOS The Key: AAMI Vase / Norman Robinson form lines RESULTS: Well, guess that is what happens when you sound ultra confident and cocky before a race. For once the winner doesn't come through the traditional lead ups of the AAMI Vae or the Norman Robinson, with a tough front running staying effort from 6-FIVEANDAHALFSTAR. 4-SUPER COOL gets the perfect trail, looms up like the winner but probably just gets out stayed to the line. He is a class horse that will go on next year. The short priced favourite 1-IT'S A DUNDEEL gets far too far back (again). The Norman Robinson form didn't really hold up, guess the bunched finished was maybe a sign that the form wasn't much good?. But winner on a rapid improve through unusual form lines was far too strong. |
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