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| FLEMINGTON: DERBY DAY - 2nd NOV 2013 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: FINE - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): Cup Week rolls around once again, it seems to come quicker and quicker every year. Weather for Cup week is actually looking pretty darn good, lots of sunshine, which also means lots of badly sunburnt pale skin out there on the lawns. Dry weather heading into the weekend and a top in the mid 20s for Derby Day means this track should probably end up fairly firm, but you would think they would give it a bit of extra water with a long week ahead. A reminder that we keep a list of the racing patterns for all feature race meetings for the last 15 years on the website. Look under Race Menu, then select Horses To Follow and Track Archive. There was a while there where Derby Day was strongly favouring on pacers, but that has not happened for a while now. However, if there is to be any pattern, especially if the track firms up it will be those closer to the rails and on pace. Expect the winners down the straight to be closer to the rails as well. Derby Day is always a great betting day. These have all been running against each other all spring so you should be able to line them up and have a confident bet. There are quite a few short priced favourites, especially early on, but it is probably worth considering others and not sure these early races are as one dimensional as the betting markets suggest. Betting suggestion is to have confident win bets today, you know the form, so go for it. Doubling up to $100 in the betting portfolio. We have done the detailed form for the Mackinnon, Derby and Myer Classic. RESULTS: Track comes up a GOOD(3) and definitely favours those racing on the speed. Down the straight is fairly even though. Tips struggle on a feature day. BEST BET: Race 5: 6-JET AWAY $20 WIN X BEST WIN: Race 5: 9-DEAR DEMI $4 WIN, 1-MOURAYAN $2 WIN 2nd 9-DEAR DEMI W=$8.10 This one does look the one to beat in the Mackinnon. Had a few setbacks so has started spring a bit late and has been playing catch up. Huge run 1st up in the Turnbull when loomed like the winner about 200M out before dying on the run and then sent for home far too early in the Caulfield Cup when stuck on really well to finish 4th. Should have lots of improvement to come and often fresher horses win this race as it is often full of horses who are racing on past the races they were set for. Needs to win this to get into the Cup on Tuesday too. The Mackinnon can throw up some funny results though, and for some reason does often favour those leading or racing on the speed. Listen out for riding tactics here but would be good to see them go forward from barrier 1. He looks the winner, was actually hoping this race would come up a bit stronger though so we could get better odds. Back him straight out at around $3.00 (and probably wouldn’t want any shorter than that), and save with win bets on the ultra consistent (9) and maybe the (1) at odds who might lead here and suddenly improve. RESULTS: Mackinnon throws up another funny result with overseas horses winning - mainly because none of the local jockeys would go to the lead. BEST WIN: Race 7: 2-FIRE UP FIFI $15 WIN 3rd W=$6.30 QUINELLA: Race 7: 2-FIRE UP FIFI, 6-BONARIA, 14-ZONZA boxed x $4 = $12 3rd 2-FIRE UP FIFI W=$6.30 Really keen on this one in a even mares feature race. Fitter for the 3 runs here from a let up, won here 2 starts back beating many of these, and was flying home late last start at Caulfield on a day when the leaders were winning and not much was making ground. That last run was really, really good and proven out to the 1600M here today. Has drawn barrier 1 and has been dropping back in her runs, but note that she has settled on speed in previous preparations so hopefully might race more handy here. Just looks a great win bet at around $7. Save with a quinella with the always under rated and over the odds (6) who is well weighted in this and has run some great races at Flemington, and the (14) who should get a good on speed sit here and has the class to win this. Very keen on the top pick though. RESULTS: Gets a little stuck on the rails in a slowly run race, but has every chance when gets into the clear. Just needed a bit more speed on. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 6-SAN DIEGO $8 EW X QUINELLA: Race 6: 6-SAN DIEGO#3,4,8,10,16 x $2 = $10 X / 1st 4-POLANSKI W=$5.20 This one just seems to have everything going for it in the Derby and expect it to continue to shorten going into race day. Fitter for the 3 runs in, plenty of improvement to come, has form in the right lead up races into this and Norman Robinson/MV Vase 1st three home invariably win this race. Has drawn a perfect barrier, can sit right on the speed when many of the main dangers are drop back horses, or are drawn wide. Suspect he also has a better turn of foot than many of these, and given a good run on the speed he may kick clear early in the straight and pinch this race. Solid each way bet at around $7.50 and try for some extra bounty by standing him out in some quinellas which should pay well in a big field, including some roughies. RESULTS: Sits up on the speed, but doesn't run the trip and is one of the first ones beaten. BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 4-SOLICIT $5 EW 3rd W=$7.30, P=$1.90 = 1.90 x 5 = $9.50 Very consistent and has been racing really well this time in, especially considering she has been stepping up sharply in distance each start. Fought on well last start and should jump and sit on the speed again and give herself very chance and probably has more improvement to come with the 2000M run under her belt so might give the favourite the (3) a run for her money here. Happy to back this one each way at around $8.50 RESULTS: Tough run on the speed dragging the field up to a tear away leader and sticks on OK at the end of the race. BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 6-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG $3 EW X There is a super short favourite in this race, the (1), but don’t think he is unbeatable, there are a lot of smart horses in this race, he is down the straight for the 1st time and he will be giving many of these a head start. The value runner here might be the (6) who stuck on really well down the straight a few starts back and then won the Guineas Prelude before jarring up in the Guineas to drop out. Amazing how often those badly drop out horses can bounce back the next start at odds. Like that he has drawn the rails, he can lead here, there isn’t a huge amount of speed in this and if they are winning on speed he may cause a boilover here. Dabble with something each way at around $21, but probably get better odds on the tote on the day. RESULTS: Doesn't lead and never looks likely. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 7: 1-RED TRACER at around $2.25 1st W=$3.00 This one is racing really well and was a class win last start at Caulfield when she stalked the speed and never looked in doubt. Suited under this weight scale too with all the field carrying the same weight, and should get another pretty good on speed sit here with not that much speed in this race. Which all sounds really great – but the big issue with her is going to be the 1600M. She has placed a very impressive 25 of 31 career starts, but has yet to win past 1400M and of the 6 times she has missed the place, 5 of those were past 1400M. She does seem to be racing better than ever and suited on speed, with this weight, so might overcome this, but just think she looks too short with the distance query. Regardless suspect she will drift coming into race day so you can probably lay her now and back her later on to guarantee a profit. Just too short for us at $2.25. RESULTS: Gets perfect on pace sit and just, just, just gets there on the line. Still think she only just gets the 1600M and only won because she is flying and got a perfect ride. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. RUNNING DOUBLE: Race 8,.9: 4,5,7,8,11 / 3,8 x 50 cents = $5 1st 4-FONTELINA W=$12.80 / 2nd 3-GALAH W=$4.90 The most open race of the day is Race 8, with lots of chances down the straight, we like the 7-STEPS IN TIME cause he will probably lead on the rails, but there are a stack of value chances in this. So go wide in that race in a running double into the last race where really either the 3-GALAH or 8-BRITISH GENERAL should win and hope for some value in the first leg for a decent collect. RESULTS: Plenty of value in the first leg, but doesn't mean much if you can't get the 2nd leg ! SPENT: $50 RETURN: $9.50 NET: $-40.50 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 4-EQUATOR, 2-HUCKELBUCK, 6-I AM TITANIUM Race 2: 4-SOLICIT, 3-MAY’S DREAM, 10-MELALEUCA Race 3: 11-LET’S MAKE A DEAL, 6-ARALDO, 15-RUSCELLO Race 4: 1-ZOUSTAR, 6-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG, 5-LION OF BELFORT Race 5: 6-JET AWAY, 9-DEAR DEMI, 1-MOURAYAN Race 6: 6-SAN DIEGO, 4-POLANSKI, 16-BRING SOMETHING Race 7: 2-FIRE UP FIFI, 6-BONARIA, 14-ZONZA Race 8: 7-STEPS IN TIME, 11-SHAMAL WIND, 8-ALBRECHT Race 9: 3-GALAH, 8-BRITISH GENERAL, 1-RIVA DE LAGO |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-EQUATOR 3rd W=$4.80 2-HUCKELBUCK 2nd W=$1.80 6-I AM TITANIUM |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-SOLICIT 3rd W=$7.30 3-MAY’S DREAM 2nd W=$2.10 10-MELALEUCA |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-LET’S MAKE A DEAL 2nd W=$7.90 6-ARALDO 3rd W=$4.20 15-RUSCELLO 1st W=$12.80 Quinella: $ 55.60 Trifecta: $621.30 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-ZOUSTAR 1st W=$1.90 6-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG 5-LION OF BELFORT 3rd W=$10.80 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-JET AWAY 9-DEAR DEMI 2nd W=$8.10 1-MOURAYAN |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-SAN DIEGO 4-POLANSKI 1st W=$5.20 16-BRING SOMETHING |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-FIRE UP FIFI 3rd W=$6.30 6-BONARIA 14-ZONZA |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-STEPS IN TIME 11-SHAMAL WIND 8-ALBRECHT |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-GALAH 2nd W=$4.90 8-BRITISH GENERAL 1-RIVA DE LAGO |
| RACE 5: MACKINNON STAKES GROUP 1 2000M WFA |
| Tips: 6-JET AWAY 9-DEAR DEMI 2nd W=$8.10 1-MOURAYAN |
| Others: 7 Pace: SLOW Leaders: 1-MOURAYAN Handy: 3-SIDE GLANCE, 4-SOLZHENITSYN, 6-JET AWAY, 7-PAKAL, 8-HVASSTAN, 9-DEAR DEMI Back: 2-MR MOET, 5-MORIARTY Chances: 1-MOURAYAN is a tough gritty on pace stayer who is hard to run down when he gets into form. Fitter for the 2 runs in and he normally takes a few runs to run into form each time in. Wasn’t that far off them 1st up here and then stuck on well 2nd up in the Metropolitan. Actually has a quite solid 2000M record, and just suspect he is going to improve today. He does go forward and if he does lead here don’t be surprised if he causes the boilover as for some reason often leaders win this race. Rough chance. 4-SOLZHENITSYN is a super consistent and talented miler and those horses can win this race. Reaching the top of the weights in handicaps so may have to head towards the WFA races now. Racing in career best form, firm track suits and probably takes a nice on speed sit here over the 2000M. Out to the 2000M for the first time though, and at WFA is the question mark. Will start well in the market but probably just tending towards others at the moment. Chance. 6-JET AWAY has come into spring a bit late but made a huge impression. Great run here 1st up in the Turnbull over 2000M, which was a very tough ask, but actually loomed as the winner about 200M out before dying on the run. Then well documented he was set an impossible task sent for home far too early in the Caulfield Cup and stuck on really well for 4th. Plenty of improvement to come and needs to win this to get into the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday. Has drawn barrier 1, small field and not much speed, would be good for them to ride his one forward today, you can’t go wrong leading in the Mackinnon. Think he is the one to beat - just watch he doesn’t get into silly odds though. Strong chance. 7-PAKAL has been racing really well with an impressive 1st up win at Caulfield, then he was left on speed when they went too fast up front 2nd up, before exact opposite happened the start after when he made good ground late in a race which was dominated by the leaders. Great ride to win the Cranbourne Cup carrying a big weight when jockey stuck to the best ground on the rails. He is racing really well and can probably sit on the speed here in a small field. Not quite sure where they are going with him this spring though? Chance. 9-DEAR DEMI is a super consistent and under rated mare who just keeps on putting in. Been in the finish in most starts this time in and smart ride in the Caulfield Cup to hug the rails and cut the corner from an outside barrier and she looked the winner half way down the straight. Versatile mare who can sit on speed in a small field and looks decent odds considering her good form. Strong chance. 2nd W=$8.10 Place: 5-MORIARTY is one we have a bit of time for and the Caulfield Cup run was pretty good when he came from last on a track that was favouring on pacers and weaved his way through the field, still racing a bit on the side and on the wrong leg. Really good run. Good 2000M record and dry track no issue. Will drop back here though and not much speed in this and is dropping back in distance and might give these too big of a head start. Likely to run on and provide a nice warm up run for Tuesday. Place. 3rd W=$17.20 Sacking: 2-MR MOET has been set some pretty tough tasks in all of his racing over here and usually isn’t too far away, but still just hard to work out where he fits in. He does just struggle at the very top grade so something slightly weaker like this does probably suit. Really not beaten that far at all in the Caulfield Cup, and he is one that will definitely appreciate the firm track. Again, small field and not much speed so might want to sit handy, rather than drop back to be given the best chance. Yet to win over here despite having plenty of chances and starting think we drop off him till he does win one. No 4th W=$10.70 3-SIDE GLANCE is an international visitor who ran OK in the Cox Plate last week, but was against the rails which was the place to be so probably could have expected a bit better. Think this is the first time an international has run in the Mackinnon? How prestigious ! Plenty are talking up the last run but find it hard to get enthused about it. No 1st W=$12.70 8-HVASSTAN has been taking a while to get back into form but managed to hold off the others in a blanket finish last start. Hasn’t quite gone on with his form from his 3YO spring preparation where he looked like he could be a top liner. Worth noting his poor record on firm tracks, and last start was a bit weaker and to be honest thought he got the run of the race there and only just held on. This is tougher, especially at WFA and prefer to let run today. No Summary: This race seems to throw up funny results quite often for a variety of reasons. Often this field is a mix of horses who have missed their main spring targets and are looking for a consolation prize, or horses that are going for one more run past the race they were set for, else it is full of runners having a warm up run for the big event on Tuesday. So you can’t go wrong following the fresher horses into this. For some reason quite often the leader wins this race too and you really can’t go wrong backing the leader in this. Speed here looks only moderate with 1-MOURAYAN the likely leader and any of about a dozen who can sit handy - 3-SIDE GLANCE, 6-JET AWAY, 7-PAKAL, 8-HVASSTAN, 9-DEAR DEMI. Don’t think they will go that quickly though in this and don’t be surprise if something leads all the way here or the if the leader kicks and proves hard to run down. Quite keen on the 6-JET AWAY here, plenty to like about this two runs this time in and looks the fresh horse on the scene here. Was actually hoping a lot of the Cox Plate horses would back up into this, cause they so often flop racing on after their main spring target and well, we wanted better odds about this one ! Would like to see him ridden forward, so listen out for riding tactics, though guess they want to encourage him to settle if he is going to run the 3200M on Tues. Only concern is that he may start a little short, suspect he is going to get well backed and $3.00 on offer at the moment is really about as low as you would want to go. Main danger is the 9-DEAR DEMI who always seems to start nice odds and always seems to put in and don’t be surprised if the roughie 1-MOURAYAN runs a race here, especially if he leads. Keen on the top pick though, just need some decent odds. One to risk: 2-MR MOET 4th W=$10.70 Roughie: 1-MOURAYAN The Key: Watch the leader RESULTS: Bit of a shambles of a race, nothing wants to lead, so the international goes to the lead - and duly wins. Pretty much everyone on the planet seems to know that the leader often wins the Mackinnon - except the local jockeys... |
| RACE 6: VICTORIA DERBY GROUP 1 2500M 3YO C+G |
| Tips: 6-SAN DIEGO 4-POLANSKI 1st W=$5.20 16-BRING SOMETHING |
| Others:3,8,10 Pace: GENUINE Leaders: 4-POLANSKI Handy: 2-COMPLACENT (wide), 6-SAN DIEGO, 7-HONEY STEEL'S GOLD, 8-TIPS AND BEERS, 12-THROW THE KING, 13-THUNDER FANTASY Back: 1-CRITERION, 3-SAVVY NATURE, 5-DRAGO, 9-EPIC SAGA, 10-TUPAC AMARU, 11-PINSTRIPE LANE, 14-SURGING WAVE, 15-FAMECHON, 16-BRING SOMETHING, 17-CADILLAC MOUNTAIN (emerg), 18-EMPIRE ROCK (emerg) Chances: 3-SAVVY NATURE is a big striding fella and definitely a staying type who looks like he will stay all day, all night, all week and all spring. If you had a party he would almost certainly be the guy you are shoving out the door at 4am. Another who is yet to miss the place in his career, and was an eye catcher making solid ground late in the Spring Champion two starts back. Seemed to get totally lost coming to the turn at MV last start when they sprinted, but knuckled home and ground home and won by a comfortable margin. Definitely flags him as a staying type and need to line up if we want a smart 3YO with a turn of foot or a staying type 3YO in this race this year. Had a long solid preparation which is good for this race. Likely to drop well back here, but long Flemington straight will suit, just wonder though how quickly they are going to go in this and whether something with a smart turn of foot might pinch a break on him and he might work home too late. Have to consider the MV Vase winner – that is the right form for this race, not sure he beat very much there though. Chance. 4-POLANSKI has been doing everything right but manages to avoid any sort of spruik or hype, he is very business like and keeps on racing well without much fanfare. Really solid wins last two, they have been slightly messy races, but he races on speed, makes his own luck and just grinds away to the line. Has beaten home many of these going around here the last 2 starts, and sometimes on worse weight terms so he is definitely worth of respect in this. Inside barrier suits him, he can go forward, and be up and running on the turn, whilst all the staying types are way back in the field hoping to get out and cut down a margin. Most of his rivals are going to be giving this one a solid head start coming to the turn. Track may play towards on pacers too. Actually picture him winning much in the way that FIVEANDAHALFSTAR did last year. In winning form, beaten many of these, Norman Robinson winner - lots of ticks going into this race and does seem to be over the odds considering his form. Strong chance.1st W=$5.20 6-SAN DIEGO has been slowly improving as the distances increase and looks to have plenty of improvement to come. Flashed home 1st at Flem, and then worked home well in the MV Bill Stutt Stakes, which has ended up being quite a strong form race. Well supported last start at Caulfield and worked a little early to get across from an outside barrier and really fought on extremely well in the straight – and the first two home there did space the others (though it is worth noting the rails were strong advantaged that day). Meets the winner there the (4) 1kgs worse off, but think this one has more improvement to come. Only the 3 runs in which is fairly light on. Drawn a perfect barrier too – can sit right on the speed here, whilst all the stayers are out the back and think that is going to be really important in a big field. Ticks a lot of boxes for us, Norman Robinson placegetter, good barrier on speed, extra distance should suit and think he will definitely hit the lead sometime in the straight. Strong chance. 8-TIPS AND BEERS is probably the one with the most untapped potential in this and if there was one to cause a boilover it would probably be this one. Still in his first preparation and not many win the Derby in their first preparation, but some have like EFFICIENT. Stepped up very quickly in distance at Caulfield and won with a touch of class, sat off them and went past them easily in the straight. Then was probably expecting a bit better in the MV Vase - though he was stepping up in distance again and going 1200M/1600M/2000M is a pretty tough ask, even if you are a horse with a super cool name. His run at MV probably wasn’t as bad as it looks actually, he was held up for runs along the inside coming to the turn, he seemed to totally loose his balance coming around the home turn and looked to be picking up again coming into the straight. Didn’t think the run was that bad. Doubt he is a stayer and may lack the maturity for this distance in his first preparation, but suspect he falls into the category of a 3YO with a nice turn of foot and sometimes those types can pinch a break in this race and win it. Should settle midfield here, and just not sure with this one – think he is a rough chance especially coming off two runs stepping up so quickly in distance each time. Rough. 10-TUPAC AMARU is one of three Snowden runners in this race and is the longest odds of those – and you know how often the longest priced stable mate wins – like ALL the time. Comes through the Geelong Derby Trial / Classic which for some reason has always been an utterly awful guide to this race. Except for the year a distant 3rd place getter named REBEL RAIDER got up and won at 100-1. But plenty of impressive winners through that race have not produced in this race. Having said that – we actually quite liked the run at Geelong, we were on the winner and think we were lucky and that this one should have won – he was making really solid ground late. Looks a real genuine staying type. Drawn middle but likely to drop back. As much as we avoid the Geelong Classic form, and as much as it was a small field and pretty weak race this year don’t think this guy is totally hopeless in this as quite liked his last run. Should get good cover from the barrier. Rough chance 16-BRING SOMETHING is one we have a bit of time for. Only in his first preparation and we suspect to win this race in your first prep you need to be something special, and not sure this guy is. But he seems to be rapidly improving, his run at MV in the Bill Stutt Stakes was fantastic when he was finishing hard late and worth noting he was drawing away from the (6) that night. Plus the Caulfield Guineas place getters and Cox Plate winner have come out of that race so it is looking a really strong form reference. Was really keen on him last start and initially thought he was disappointing, but on watching the video again his run may have been much better than it looked. He got well back on a track that was favouring on pacers, sure he cut the corner close to the rails in the best ground, but seemed off balance early in the straight and then didn’t seem to really want to go between horses when finishing off OK. Wouldn’t have won, but think he probably should have run a place. Draw out here is a plus as suspect he likes a bit of room in the run. Is a maiden, and really we are going off a well beaten 4th and 5th so guess you have to be realistic, but he is probably a solid rough chance in this finishing on hard down the middle of the track. Definitely put him in quinellas and trifectas. You can just see the story now – feature race won by a maiden two weeks in a row. Rough. Place: 1-CRITERION is one of the Sydney 3YOs and as usual we need to play the yearly game of trying to line up whether the Melbourne or Sydney form is stronger. Which is largely a “my dad is tougher than your dad” sort of playground argument. Been slowly improving as the distances increase this time in, and worked home nicely last start, though the 1st and the 3rd horse there were probably the better runs and have more attention here. Williams on board, probably drops back from an outside barrier and will need them to be running on OK. Williams does seem to go well in feature races in strongly yellow colours though, the colour must agree with him. Looks a genuine staying type, but just prefer the other Sydney horses at the moment. Place only. 4th W=$10.40 2-COMPLACENT is the Sydney headliner and current favourite. Only had the 3 runs in, which is fairly light on going into a Derby, and is attempting to win this race coming off a 4 week break. MONACO CONSUL won this race a few years back on a similar preparation, but in general winners of this race have had 4-5 starts this preparation and normally come through the place getters in the Norman Robinson or the Moonee Valley Vase (or whatever they want to call it now..). Yet to miss the place in 5 career starts and the big plus with this guy is that he can take a handy position. But that also means this turns into a tricky ride now from an outside barrier – listen for riding tactics – do they try and press forward in a big field? There hasn’t been that much between the Sydney horses or indeed many of the 3YOs this spring. Coming off a break, drawn out, in a big even field actually think we want to look at others at more value. Likely to be in the finish, but prefer place for us. Place. 2nd W=$6.60 9-EPIC SAGA has had a pretty epic spring, and has been thereabouts in pretty much everything he has contested. Every start has been pretty much identical too – he has pulled out, loomed as the winner – and not won. Think he has had every chance in most of his starts and thought maybe he would improve as the distances increase, but he keeps doing the same thing. Though has to be said he hasn’t been beaten by much each time. Was ridden a lot more forward last start, but think he is better ridden back in the field and likely to drop well back here from an outside barrier. Very consistent, and not much wrong with his form, but likely to give a few a head start in this. Will probably run on OK again but find one better. Solid place chance though. 11-PINSTRIPE LANE is stepping through his classes rapidly but has been quiet competitive at this last two runs. Ran on quite well at Flemington behind a few going around here, and wasn’t too bad at MV in the Vase which is often the right form race for this. Guess the worry is that he couldn’t get pass the $200 chance that ran 2nd there. He did loom up like he was going to run on there so his run wasn’t too bad – but did follow the winner around the bend and that one dropped him pretty quickly in the straight. Still in his 1st preparation, and you just wonder if he is quite ready for this step ? Drawn inside and drops back, so might need luck getting through the field. Form is OK thought so he is yet another one at odds that could easily get into the placings at odds – but we can’t tip them all. Goes in as a MV Vase place getter though. Place. 14-SURGING WAVE is one of quite a few in this race who have shown tantalising glimpses this spring and have to be considered as rough chances. Worked home really nicely 2nd up at Caulfield when the speed on suited, worked home really well again at Flemington, and then didn’t do much in the Norman Robinson but worth noting the two leaders kicked there and the track was racing favouring on pacers so maybe you can forgive that run? Drawn out here and likely to drop back again, but another one where really some of his lead up runs haven’t been that bad. Rough place. 15-FAMECHON is yet another one who has loomed a few times this time in and will probably be suited by the increased distance here. Fitter for the 3 runs in, really liked the Flemington run where he was running on hard, and rider reported he jarred up last time – though the track is likely to be firmer here today. Drawn a nice barrier and going to get a really nice cover in this race. Still a maiden and hard to see him improving enough to win this, especially meeting quite a few who have beaten him home last few runs, but one of a stack here whose form actually isn’t that bad and a place wouldn’t surprise. Place. Sacking: 5-DRAGO is a Sydney 3YO whose form isn’t quite as flash as the other Sydney visitors. Has been working home OK this time in, but has been beaten by a few going around here. Normal pattern is to be ridden back, but ended up leading in the MV Vase, slid forward and went for home coming to the turn and looked like he was going to run away with it – and then fell in a total hole about 20M later and stopped really badly. Blinkers have gone off and did over race last start. Drawn outside and surely they ride him back and cold here, which is his normal racing pattern. Guess you could probably forgive last run, totally ridden upside down. But the form of the other Sydney horses is much better, he is going to drop well back here and simply didn’t like how quickly he stopped last start. Passing. 7-HONEY STEEL'S GOLD has been thereabouts in most of his lead up runs this time in, but has found a few that go better than him each time. 3 runs in off a let up, he lobs on speed and sticks on OK, but normally finds one better. Inside barrier here suits, will be another that gets a perfect on pace sit and will make his own luck. Does get a slight weight drop against some of his rivals from last start too. Hard to see him winning this, but from this barrier and just sticking on along the inside he is probably a rough place chance if you are looking for a monster trifecta or first four collect. Otherwise passing. 12-THROW THE KING has had only the 3 runs this time in and only won his maiden 2 starts back. Plugged away on the heavy track a Geelong when was beaten a long, long way, but probably better on the dry ground here. Likely to go forward from an inside barrier here. Hard to see his form being good enough for this though. No 13-THUNDER FANTASY is another Sydney visitor with close to no profile, though worth noting that the stable won this race last year. Has been well held last 2 runs, either in weaker grade, or against many of these going around here so hard to see him turning the tables today. Nice barrier and can probably position on speed, but that’s about all. No 3rd W=$41.00 17-CADILLAC MOUNTAIN (emerg) is still in this first preparation and only won his maiden two starts back. Was well beaten when raced against many of these in the Norman Robinson, but on pacers were favoured that day and he was out the back and wide in the run. Nice barrier, but unlikely to make the field and looks safely held even if he does. No 18-EMPIRE ROCK (emerg) is a maiden who has been well held in weaker races and looks out of his depth here. No Summary: Capacity field for the Derby and think it is actually a very even field this year. Definitely a great betting race and there is a lot of value so you can actually back a few in this. The trick every year is working out whether you want to go with the dead set stayers, or look for something with a bit more class and turn of foot. Guess a lot of that depends on what the tempo is likely to be like, and it looks genuine this year without being overly fast. We stick to pretty much the same formula every year in this race and it has worked a treat so far. This is one of the strongest traditional form lines in racing, the winner of this race invariably comes through the first three home in either the Norman Robinson or the MV (aka AAMI) Vase so often it is just a matter of watching those two races, lining up the runs and the weights and picking out your winner. In the last 20 years, 17 of the winners have been in the first three home in those races and some of them at nice each way odds too. Though guess we should add the disclaimer that those 3 times the method didn’t work were all in the last 5 years ! Still that is pretty much the strongest form line in racing, and you don’t get many races apart from this and the Oaks where pretty much the entire field has come though just 2-3 races, so you can just line them up easily. It is also worth nothing that since 1983 – over 30 years – there are only 2 winners of this race who did not place in their lead up run. That’s a pretty amazing stat. Pace here should be even with 4-POLANSKI going forward and 2-COMPLACENT (wide), 6-SAN DIEGO, 7-HONEY STEEL'S GOLD, and 12-THROW THE KING all siting handy. You would think a big field would ensure the speed, but not quite sure how fast they are going to go though and just wonder if some of the solid staying types out the back are going to struggle to get into the race. Think barriers here are going to be crucial and look for something on speed from a good barrier who might kick early in the straight whilst the others run on. Pretty keen on 6-SAN DIEGO as the top pick here and think he is great value odds at the moment. Has only had the 3 runs in, but fought on well last start and should have plenty of improvement to come, and just see him getting the perfect run here from the barrier. He has a turn of foot too to pinch a break on these. 4-POLANSKI the main danger, really doing nothing wrong and keeps starting good odds and we are sticking with the Norman Robinson form here and putting in roughie 16-BRING SOMETHING for 3rd pick, just seems to be building to something here and is going to make a great racing news story if a maiden wins the feature race 2 weeks in a row. The 3-SAVVY NATURE the other genuine danger. Actually not going to be surprised if we get an upset this year, just seems to be so many who have shown glimpses of form and one of them may pop up, hence the very lopsided win and place lists. Happy to go around the favourite and search for more value in a big field. Definitely go very wide in your trifectas as think there is going to be a dividend. Each way the top pick the (6) though and should be pretty safe. One to risk: 2-COMPLACENT #RED 2nd W=$6.60 Roughie: 8-TIPS AND BEERS, 16-BRING SOMETHING The Key: Good barrier in a big field RESULTS: Barriers really make the difference here with with a solid tempo, the winner hits the lead early in the straight and just keeps on going in a very impressive staying win. Speed was fast and a true staying test. |
| RACE 7: MYER CLASSIC GROUP 1 1600M F+M |
| Tips: 2-FIRE UP FIFI 3rd W=$6.30 6-BONARIA 14-ZONZA |
| Others: 3,13 Pace: EVEN Leaders: 13-CAMEO, 14-ZONZA Handy: 1-RED TRACER, 3-CATKINS, 11-FLORIA Back: 2-FIRE UP FIFI, 4-SHARNEE ROSE, 5-XANADU, 6-BONARIA, 7-ZURELLA, 8-THY, 9-AVA'S DELIGHT, 10-YOU'RE SO GOOD, 12-MOLTO BENE Chances: 2-FIRE UP FIFI has been racing really well and stormed home to win here 2 starts back, although they were winning running on that day. Last start at Caulfield was actually just as good, they were winning on speed that day, and she absolutely flew home late. Big extra gold star in the Black Book for her. Suited out to the 1600M here. Has drawn barrier 1, which is a slight concern and probably wouldn’t want to drop back in this, but note that she has raced handier in previous preparations so listen for changes in riding tactics. Just really liked the last run and keen to back her today. Go well.3rd W=$6.30 3-CATKINS has been racing extremely consistently all spring, and has an extremely good win/place strike rate. The ride won the race last start, when the jockey waited and waited and waited as they swooped around her and stuck to the rails which was the best going. Pretty good win as she was giving the rest of the field a fair bit of weight there , so suited back to set weights conditions today. That was her first try at the 1600M and thought she might be a query, but she had no issues at all. Firm track no issues and should sit on speed here and get every chance. Chance. 2nd W=$7.10 6-BONARIA is one we have a lot of time for and she just keeps starting over the odds and racing well. Strong finishing type who has ran several good races at odds here at Flem a few times now in feature races. She does prefer a bit of give in the ground, so the firm track is not ideal but she is very well weighted in this meeting the (14) 3kgs better off from last start. She will need them to run along, and needs them to be able to run on OK, but her form this time in except for the Rupert Clarke Stakes flop has been pretty good and she has been promising to do something. Good chance at odds. 13-CAMEO is one we were actually really keen to tip in this – until we saw the weights. Ouch. Meeting the (3) a whopping 5kgs worse off and was beaten home by that one last start. That is some weight turn around. Few things to like about this one – runs out a strong 1600M, she races handy on speed, drawn a good barrier and likely leader on the rails here and there isn’t that much pressure up front here. Actually thought the run last start was really good, she was on speed, a few made runs early and wide and forced her to go too early and she stuck on OK, but the race was set up for the (3) who got the gun patient run on the rails to run over the top of her. Solid effort to hang onto 2nd though. She is a great value roughie in this, rolling on speed, just can’t put her in the tips based on the weights. But at the odds – have something on her. Great rough chance. 14-ZONZA is a class NZ mare who was well backed at Caulfield and never really looked in any doubt. Fitter for the 2 runs in, solid 1600M winning record and can go forward here in a race with not much speed so almost certain to be in the finish. Suspect she will get well backed again too and looks value at the odds in this. This is probably slightly harder, and does meet the (6) worse off on weights from last start, but likely to be in this for a long way. Strong chance. Place: 1-RED TRACER is racing in pretty much career best form and always looked the winner at Caulfield last start when she stalked the speed and easily accounted for those in front of her. Suited under this weight scale with level weights and should get a good on pace sit here from the barrier and there doesn’t seem to be that much speed in this. Better known as a wet tracker but handles firm tracks OK these days. Question mark here is the 1600M, she has yet to win past 1400M, she has only placed 1 from 4 over the 1600M and considering how good her overall place strike rate is that does look a little unusual. Hard to knock a horse racing in such good form but think she looks vulnerable today over the 1600M and especially at the short odds on offer. May win, but happy to search for value elsewhere here. Risking and prefer place. 1st W=$3.00 4-SHARNEE ROSE is famous in Melbourne for being a non winner but has managed to finally put some wins on the board up in Sydney and is starting to catch up on her win strike rate. Drawn a good barrier but does like to drop back in her races and just wonder if there is going to be enough speed in this race for her. Going to be interesting to see how she goes back to the Melbourne way of going. Guess she has won her last two so a bit hard to write her off, but Melbourne punters are probably still smarting from that long run of 2nds. Prefer place. 4th W=$10.00 7-ZURELLA is a classy type who hasn’t shown her best form in a while, not since winning here at the start of last spring. 2nd up and up 200M into this and did run on OK here 1st up. Form doesn’t look the best a first glance, but she has been contesting some pretty tough feature races, and is suited back to her own sex and under this weight scale. Nice barrier, but will drop back and needs them to be running along and running on, but she has the talent to win this on her best form. Rough chance. 9-AVA'S DELIGHT has a bit of ability but a really bad habit of missing the start which makes life tough. Missed the start again last start when poked through along the inside late to run on well. She has been up forever, been racing since April, but she has been pretty consistently holding her form since then. Class here and this weight scale may be the test, and well, she probably misses the start again and it is a bit hard to back them when you know they are going to do that. Keeps racing well though so place chance. Place. 11-FLORIA stuck on well to finish 3rd last start, but the place getters did have every chance to run down the winner and couldn’t. 2nd up and up 200M and might just need one more to be competitive in this sort of race. Winning strike rate isn’t the best, but hasn’t been too far away in a few of these feature mile races. Big plus with her is that she can race handy from a good barrier and there doesn’t seem to be much speed here. Prefer place though. 12-MOLTO BENE is a very talented horse on her day and her win here 2 starts back swooping past the field from last was super impressive. She made OK ground last start at Caulfield on a track that was favouring on pacers – so run isn’t as bad as it looks. Might have the same issues here though, dropping back, track may play towards on pacers and there doesn’t seem to be that much speed in this. At the very least she will be giving a few good ones a big head start. Prefer place. Sacking: 5-XANADU is a NZ visitor who barely impressed at her first start in Melbourne this spring, finishing an inglorious last. Is much better than that though so maybe watch the betting markets to see if there are any moves. Was there any excuse for the run last start? Bit hard to have coming off a last, but suspect she will go better today. Passing. 8-THY is a tough one to catch and she keeps on mixing her form. Super impressive win to win over the unsuitable 1200M 1st up, but then disappointing last two starts. Maybe she goes better fresh? Has been given a freshen up into this. Has drawn wide, not sure where she settles here, she can go forward or go back so listen for riding tactics. Just find her hard to catch so prefer others. No 10-YOU'RE SO GOOD does have some ability on her day, but has been struggling to find the right race and it is a bit hard to work out if she is a sprinter or a miler or a stayer or what – not sure she even knows. Did show a stack of ability as a 3YO but hasn’t quite gone on with it this spring. Ran on OK along the rails last start, which was the best going, but she just seems to tease a bit and not really get into the finish of her races and does look outclassed here under this weight scale. No Summary: This looks to be a great betting race, these have all been running against each other last few starts so you can line them up and have a confident bet. Plus we have concerns over the short priced favourite, which means there are some pretty juicy odds to be taken about some good quality horses. Key to this race is going to be the speed, there are an awful lot of drop back miler mares in this and really it is only 13-CAMEO, 14-ZONZA setting the speed with the 1-RED TRACER, 3-CATKINS, 11-FLORIA sitting off them. But suspect the on pacers here may kick and prove hard to run down. Really keen on the top pick here though, the 2-FIRE UP FIFI whose last few runs have been great, just would like to see her sitting a bit more handy from barrier 1 in a slowly run race. Putting in our favourite horse 6-BONARIA as the main danger, needs them to be running on, but keeps on running good races at odds and going to start good odds again today. The 14-ZONZA the other danger rolling on the speed whilst most of the field gives her a head start. And definitely put something on the other on pacer here, the 13-CAMEO as the best roughie, facts and figures and weights are saying no, but on form and racing style and punter’s instinct just suspect she is going to do something today at massive odds. Great betting race and keen to be with plenty of value away from the favourite. One to risk: 1-RED TRACER #RED 1st W=$3.00 Roughie: 13-CAMEO The Key: Strong 1600M mare RESULTS: Pace isn't strong and the track is favouring on pacers, so the two on pacers the 1-RED TRACER and the 3-CATKINS fight out the finish, with the favourite only just getting there after a perfect trail. Huge run from the 8-THY finishing on late, but how you catch her is anyone's guess. |
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