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Sportsbet
are offering money back if your horse runs 2nd or 3rd in Races 1 to 4 on Derby Day |
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| FLEMINGTON: DERBY DAY - 1st NOV 2014 |
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): We finally got a bit of rain this week in Melbourne, and it has been super hard dry tracks all spring. Fine sunny weather leading into Saturday, but the forecast is looking a little dire for Derby Day, with rain easing to showers, so there is a good chance we are going to get the first track this spring with a bit of give in it. So just keep it in mind that we may get a track on the worse side of dead when doing the form. Normally the racing pattern does tend to favour on pacers on Derby Day, but they might be able to run on OK if enough rain comes along. Down the straight – really anyone’s guess – but whatever the pattern is it will probably say all week. Suspect middle of the track will be best down the straight. Normally Derby Day is a great day to have a serious bet, all of these have exposed form and have been running against each other all spring. However, we think this is one of the toughest Derby Day programs we have looked at, and suspect there may be a few surprises in store. The field in the Coolmore is beyond outstanding, the Myer Classic and Victorian Derby both have big even fields. Even though there are solid favourites in most races, actually think most of them don’t represent any value and there is plenty of depth and good value chances in every race, so don’t be afraid to go away from the betting market and back the one you like. RESULTS: Very windy day means the racing pattern favours those running on late, or with cover, and very few on pace horses stick on to be in the finish. Down the straight they come to the outside rail to protect from the wind which we have not seen in a while. The tips struggle to get on the board too, which is a bad way to kick off a long punting week. BEST BET: Race 6: 15-RISING ROMANCE $6 WIN X This one had the Caulfield Cup totally won and shot to pieces and jockey was already writing his acceptance speech when the pesky Japanese runner came storming down the middle of the track. Still, plenty to like about that run, particularly how she shot clear and put a gap on them in the straight. A few of these have been up a while and are backing up after missing their main spring target in the Cox Plate and think she is a bit fresher and with more improvement to come than many of these. This race is so often won by leaders, but for once this year there are actually quite a few on pacers, the (6),(7),(12), but she should be able to sit just off them and run into the race at the right time. Should go very close to winning this based on last run, so back straight out at around $6. RESULTS: Bursts through along the inside about 200M out like she is going to figure in the finish, but dies on the run. BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 2-STRATUM STAR $4 EW 2nd W=$5.60, P=$2.00 = $8 QUINELLA: Race 1: 2-STRATUM STAR, 15-AZKADELLIA $2 2nd 2-STRATUM STAR W=$5,60, X QUINELLA: Race 1: 2-STRATUM STAR, 8-KAPSET $2 2nd 2-STRATUM STAR W=$5,60, X This one just seems to be a winner and you can’t go wrong sticking with horses who just keep winning. There is a short priced favourite in the 1st the (15), who was super unlucky last start and may win but doesn’t represent much value. Much prefer to be on the (2) at around $9, who is suited under the weight scale here, hopefully won’t settle too far back in a race with not much speed and runs on like he will run out a strong 1600M. Looks a good each way bet to kick the day off with, so back each way, and save with the quinella with the favourite the 15-AZKADELLIA, and again with the 8-KAPSET who is the value runner in this race leading without much pressure up front. RESULTS: Gets trapped three wide the whole way, has to go for home early at the top of the straight and looks the winner but just gets run down the last 50M by one with cover. That stung a bit and was really unlucky, any luck in the run and would have been kicking the day off with a very nice winner. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 13-MORE THAN SACRED $4 EW X QUINELLA: Race 5: 1,2,9,10(scr),13 x $5 = 50% SCR $2 1st 9-SIGNOFF W=$2.40, 2nd 1-BIG MEMORY W=$8.20 Quinella = $7.60 x 0.5 = 3.80 These feature staying races are always a lot more open than they appear, and although the 9-SIGNOFF does loom as the one to beat here, running into form finally and with the blinkers on, we don’t think he represents much value. Would much rather prefer to back the (13) each way, should be fitter and ready to win now with the 3 runs in and they have all been full of merit. 1st up with big weight the jockey went far too early and he stuck on well, was coming home well late in the Cranbourne Cup which was leader dominated, and then loomed up in the Geelong Cup from wide barrier but just got out stayed to the line. Think with the 2400M run last start he will have a lot of improvement and note he has drawn a good barrier today and he can race more handy if required. Back each way at around $13, and take in a boxed quinella and watch out for the 10-MARKMANSHIP as the value runner here at around $21, rolling on speed and with some give in the ground might be hard to run down. RESULTS: Ridden back, was hoping they would go forward, and although pulled out and looked likely top of the straight was no chance the way the track was racing. Winner far too good anyway and end up with a silly small quinella dividend. BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 12-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG $5 EW SCR $10 There is a super short favourite in the last, the 6-DEEP FIELD who is going to go around at about $1.50, but the last thing you want in the last is to be trying to get out on a short priced favourite. He may win, but 1st time in Melbourne, 1st time down the straight and 1st time over the 1200M we are not interested at those odds. Trick to this race is the 10-ADAMANTIUM, who has only one speed, full throttle and that is going to set this race up for horses running on. End of the day you want a nice each way bet to get out on, and the 12-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG looks the way to go, fitter for the 2 runs in, should have won last start at Caulfield when got hopelessly held up for runs behind the leader for the entire straight, does have a touch of class and gets in here at the bottom of the weights. At around $13 he should give you a good run for your money to end the day on. BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 10-ROYAL STANDING $2 EW X Happy to push for our super roughie in the feature race, and if there weren’t a lot of other leaders in this race would have probably tipped him on top. Has been racing well, really fighting out his finishes, got cramped for room on the turn at MV last start else would have finished much closer and was holding his ground to the line. Bit of rain won’t hurt either. If he can cross from his outside barrier and there is not too much pressure up front think he is going to stick on really well here and definitely worth something each way at around $67. Suspect we will get much better odds (better than $67!) on the day too. RESULTS: Goes to the lead, but this is not the day to lead into a fierce head wind and pretty much the first horse beaten. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 8: 1-SWEET IDEA at around $5 2nd W=$5.80 Class on pace mare who has been racing well but faces a few challenges today. Plenty of other speed in this race from the (2), (7), (12), and in a big field they will probably press forward from outside barriers as well, meaning there will be a lot of pressure on her from barrier 1. Yet to prove herself over the 1600M, probably best on dry ground and a bit of rain forecast and in such a big field just a good chance something at odds will pop up so would prefer to look elsewhere this week. RESULTS: Actually stuck on really well first time over the 1600M and we were really probably a little lucky to get away with this lay. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. RUNNING DOUBLE: Races 6,7: 13,15 / 1,2,4,8,10 x $5 = 50% X / 4th 8-LIGHT UP MANHATTAN W=$31.30 Let’s go for a running double on two of the feature races this week and it should pay OK with big fields and a decent chance of a value winner in the Derby. Think there are two main chances in the Mackinnon, the 15-RISING ROMANCE, who we have already mentioned, and the 13-CRITERION who will be suited with some speed on, some give in the ground and out to the bigger Flemington track. In the Derby go wide and hope for a result with roughies like 8-LIGHT UP MANHATTAN, 10-ROYAL STANDING and 4-FIREHOUSE ROCK as well as the more favoured 1-HAMPTON COURT and 2-MOONOVERMANHATTAN. Of course if the short priced favourite gets up we will barely get our money back, but you need to dream a little. RESULTS: Well that was pretty ordinary, not even a place getter in either leg - so really didn't even get slightly warm. SPENT:$50 RETURN:$23.80 NET: $-26.20 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 2-STRATUM STAR, 15-AZKADELLIA, 8-KAPSET Race 2: 1-FONTEIN RUBY, 3-ABDUCTION, 9-FENWAY Race 3: 4-HUCKLEBUCK, 2-ALMA’S FURY, 9-TURQUOISE KING Race 4: 1-RICH ENUFF, 3-SCISSOR KICK, 16-BRING ME THE MAID Race 5: 13-MORE THAN SACRED, 10-MARKMANSHIP, 9-SIGNOFF, Race 6: 15-RISING ROMANCE, 13-CRITERION, 3-FORETELLER Race 7: 8-LIGHT UP MANHATTAN, 1-HAMPTON COURT, 10-ROYAL STANDING Race 8: 4-MAY’S DREAM, 13-STAR FASHION, 16-NEENA ROCK Race 9: 12-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG, 6-DEEP FIELD, 8-CHARLIE BOY |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-STRATUM STAR 2nd W=$5.60 15-AZKADELLIA 8-KAPSET |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-FONTEIN RUBY 3-ABDUCTION 2nd W=$2.70 9-FENWAY 3rd W=$6.90 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-HUCKLEBUCK 1st W=$2.60 2-ALMA’S FURY 2nd W=$11.90 9-TURQUOISE KING Quinella = $16.80 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-RICH ENUFF 3-SCISSOR KICK 16-BRING ME THE MAID |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-MORE THAN SACRED 10-MARKMANSHIP SCR 9-SIGNOFF 1st W=$2.40 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 15-RISING ROMANCE 13-CRITERION 3-FORETELLER |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-LIGHT UP MANHATTAN 1-HAMPTON COURT 10-ROYAL STANDING |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-MAY’S DREAM 13-STAR FASHION 16-NEENA ROCK |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 12-ÉCLAIR BIG BANG SCR 6-DEEP FIELD 1st W=$1.50 8-CHARLIE BOY |
| RACE 7: VICTORIA DERBY 2500M 3YO C+G GROUP 1 |
| Tips: 8-LIGHT UP MANHATTAN 1-HAMPTON COURT 10-ROYAL STANDING |
| Others: 4,2,5,9 Pace: SOLID Leaders: 6-LOTION, 10-ROYAL STANDING, 16-THE MIGHTY JROD Handy: 1-HAMPTON COURT, 2-MOONOVERMANHATTAN, 7-NOZOMI, 8-LIGHT UP MANHATTAN Back: 3-PRENTICE, 4-FIREHOUSE ROCK, 5-MAGICOOL, 9-BONDEIGER, 11-ATMOSPHERE, 12-GOULDIAN, 13-PREFERMENT, 14-CUBAN FIGHTER, 15-SAN PADRE, 17-VERREAUX (emerg) Chances: 1-HAMPTON COURT is the short priced favourite and fair enough too, as he seem to show a bit of class and a bit of staying potential and most the rest of his opposition here do seem to be mixing up their form a fair bit. Funny that he was a $16 chance in the Spring Champion Stakes, but will go around a short priced favourite in this. His normal pattern is actually to race on the speed, but it was his last start win that really spring boarded him when he was ridden cold and back, and came with a powerful staying burst to the line. Was really strong the last 100M there and running away from them on the line. Looked to be the class 3YO on the up based on that run. Listen out for riding tactics here – will they go forward or back? There actually is a bit of speed in this race and although the stable do like their runners ridden forward given what he showed last start you would think they would want to settle him around midfield and let him run over the top of them here. Usually the winner of this race has come through the Caulfield Classic or the MV Vase, and he has had a solid three weeks between runs, but MONACO CONSUL won this race a few years back with a similar preparation. He is definitely the one to beat, and he is probably the only one in this field that has been showing real quality form, we do find the rest a bit lack lustre. Definite chance, almost certainly in the finish, but possible something at odds might cause an upset this year. Strong chance. 2-MOONOVERMANHATTAN has been progressing towards this race very nicely all spring. Not suited in a stop start Bill Stutt Stakes around a tight MV track, was even enough on speed in the Caulfield Guineas and then won the traditional lead up MV Vase last week. The first three home in that race have an incredible record in this race and need to be respected. He looms as a solid, rolling on speed staying type and should be suited here out to distance and on the bigger Flemington track. He normally races on speed, but they did have the intention of riding him back last week, which was crazy in a race with no speed around MV which just about always favours leaders – he ended up starting too well and going forward regardless. Just listen out for riding instructions again, but assume they go forward today. Should be OK on a wet track. There is a quite a bit of speed in this race and from an outside barrier he might settle just behind him, but he is definitely going well enough to win this. Strong chance. 4-FIREHOUSE ROCK has been going along nicely this spring and may be a little under rated. Still in his first preparation. Only missed the place once in 5 starts now and that is when he struck a heap of trouble here two starts back. His win at Caulfield 3 starts back was solid and he looked to have the Caulfield Classic in his keeping when he loomed as the winner around the turn, but the trainer was critical of the jockey’s ride there and that he went too early because the on pace filly fought back, even though he had clearly headed her. He is racing really well and placegetters through the Caulfield Classic have a good record in this race. Do really like the way he loomed as the winner last start, he put himself into the race at the right time and might do the same again here. Maybe the solid 2500M here might find him out though? The speed on here should suit, he can sit off the speed and run on, and think he is right in the finish here. Strong chance. 8-LIGHT UP MANHATTAN is a really solid staying type who looks like he is looking for the 2500M. Another who has not been far away in all of his career starts. Stuck on OK here 2 starts back but was a long way behind the three that fought out the finish, and his run in the Caulfield Classic, which is always a strong form reference for this race was much better than it looks. He was just held up for runs early on in the straight there, and he seems to be a solid staying type who wants room and will grind away at them. He has drawn really well here, will sit just off the speed in what looks like a solid tempo and think he is going to get just about the run of the race into this. Think he is a strong chance here. Strong chance. 4th W=$31.30 10-ROYAL STANDING has actually been going along OK and is a roughie to watch out for in this. Wet track might actually be a plus for this one. Really good win at Seymour running along in front, and what on earth they were thinking at Flemington when they dropped him back to last is anyone’s guess? Caulfield run was really good, he worked a little early and was really fighting out the finish against the (9). Actually really liked the run in the MV Vase, finished fourth, so not far off them, that race is always a really good form race for this one, and he was rolling along nicely on speed there and sticking on well – just got tightened for runs around the turn which cost him a bit of ground and he should have finished closer. Drawn out, but stable have said he is going forward and he should be up on the speed running along here. Main issue is that there is a lot of other speed in this race, if there wasn’t would almost put him in as top pick. Think he is by far the best rough chance though, last run is better than it looks, he will race on speed and just keep going and may be capable of an upset if they don’t challenge him up front. Strong rough chance. Place: 5-MAGICOOL has been progressing through his races and distances really well and pretty hard to knock his form. His super cool brother went well in this race a few years back. Won in a close finish against some of these two starts back, and then didn’t get the clearest run when really not beaten that far in the Caulfield Classic. Normally races on speed, but there is a fair bit of speed in this race and think he might be ridden a bit further back in the field here from an outside barrier. Should be OK with a bit of give in the ground. Nothing really wrong with form, and he is capable of wining this, just with the outside barrier and meeting a few who beat him home last start probably tending towards place. Place. 7-NOZOMI is the Geelong Classic winner and that race, although supposedly a traditional lead up for this race, has a really poor track record in the Derby, with only the one long shot 150-1 winner in the last 20 years coming through Geelong. He has been progressing well through his races and seems to have appreciated being ridden forward the last 2 starts. Only narrowly beat the (13) last start, that horse has more improvement to come, and that one was going to beat him in another stride so obviously much more focus on that one. Drawn out a little, probably goes forward here, and actually if you look back over his 7 careers starts he has never been that far from the finish. Likely to find one better here and place best. Place. 3rd W=$32.70 9-BONDEIGER is a flashy strong finishing type who is going through his classes rapidly but might not be quite ready for this yet. Settled back and made a long sustained run to win at Caulfield, and then got far too far back in a race dominated by on pacers at MV and made good late ground. He actually had to dodge a few runners on the turn there and should have finished closer. Guess you can push for him on the basis of that run. OK on wet ground. Fast tempo here is going to suit. He is meeting a lot of horses who beat him home last start though. Barrier 1 is the main issue for this one, he is likely to drop well back and get caught up amongst tired runners in the straight and might need luck getting runs. Think he has some ability and potential and do like the way he has been finishing off his races, and he is another who could win this without surprising if the luck comes this way, but prefer place at this stage. Place. 2nd W=$10.30 11-ATMOSPHERE is a maiden who keeps looking for ground, but this is as far as they go in the spring for the 3YOs. Only had the 4 starts and still in his first preparation. Looking at the betting obviously the stable knew he was a Derby type who had ability right from the start, he has started favourite or well in the betting every start, but yet to put a win on the board. Maidens have won this race before though. Fought out the finish well against two others here 2 starts back, and again chased hard at MV in the Vase and that is good form for this. Strong finishing type who looks more suited at Flemington and out to the 2500M here. Well drawn, speed on here is going to suit and should stay the trip. Definite chance, but just get the impression he may be better next time in and wonder if he might just find one better again here. Ticks the very important box of being the MV Vase place getter though. Place. 13-PREFERMENT is likely to get extremely well backed and was incredibly unlucky not to win the Geelong Classic, when he switched across heels and took forever to wind up, but was launching on the line to only just miss. Strong finishing type who has been thereabouts in all of his career starts. Speed on here should suit, has a good barrier and stable wins pretty much everything these days. He had to be hard ridden for a very long time to get into the race last start, and just wonder if he has the tactical speed for this? On form alone he has to be right in this race. It is just the Geelong Classic has been such a totally horrible form reference for this race it is hard to get enthused, plenty of impressive winners have won that race and gone into this one, and the only Derby winner in the last 20 years to come through that race was the well beaten 100-1 shot REBEL RAIDER. Guess one year this drought is going to break and it may well be this year, but think he is also under the odds as a maiden, coming through the Geelong Classic and happy to risk him on that basis alone. Prefer place. 1st W=$7.10 Sacking: 3-PRENTICE is a West Australian 3YO who looks to be rather ambitiously placed here. He has already had 7 starts this spring, he wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire with his form before he came over (he ran last), and had no betting support and did nothing in the MV Vase. Hard to see him turning the tables on so many who beat him home easily last start and he is going to start rank outsider today. Nice barrier, but likely to drop back and no form to recommend him. No 6-LOTION is one of the more experienced runners in this field with 10 starts, and his form has just been OK. Thereabouts in his Melbourne races, and he did seem to appreciate the weaker field over in Adelaide with solid on pace win. Raced handy in the Geelong Classic and dropped out quickly which is a concern. Nice barrier, and probably goes forward here again, but there just seems to be so many on pacers in this race. He just doesn’t have the right form for this race and doesn’t seem to be going well enough. No. 12-GOULDIAN is attempting to win the Derby off a 1600M Sydney maiden which isn’t a very traditional form line in the slightest. Strong finishing type who showed staying promise even as a 2YO and likely to drop back and run on here. Hasn’t raced for 4 weeks and stepping up sharply in distance has to be an issue, but guess he is a last start winner and FIVEANDAHALFSTAR did stuff up the record for the traditional form references in this race a few years back. Inside barrier, dropping back, would need luck and hard to have as a solid chance. No 14-CUBAN FIGHTER is a maiden with just the one second placing from 7 starts. Drop back type who has been thereabouts in the provincials, and made a little ground in the Caulfield Classic but was still well held by many going around here. Passing. 15-SAN PADRE is one with just the three starts and pretty sure most Derby winners have had more than one preparation and at least five starts. Finished well behind the three fighting out the finish here 2 starts back, and then was in the market at MV when was a little disappointing. Meeting quite a few here who have beaten him home the last 2 starts and hard to have on form. Likely to drop back from inside barrier. No 16-THE MIGHTY JROD just sounds like one cool dude, in fact he sounds like he should be a rapper. Forget this 3YO classic racing business. Maiden who has been leading in his races and is going along OK, but likely to be outclassed in this field. Has drawn the outside barrier too, but the (10) inside him is likely to go forward and cart him across. You would think the others from Geelong going around here will beat him home again so hard to have. Passing. 17-VERREAUX (emerg) is yet another maiden, there are an awful lot of them in this race this year. Maybe they should get their own bloody race? Dropped well back in the Geelong Classic and didn’t really figure and unlike some of the other maidens in here has been well beaten in most of his career runs. No. Summary: We actually normally love betting in this race and it can be quite easy to find a great $5 to $10 winner who you can have a confident bet on. The main trick is that this race has the strongest traditional form lines out of any race on the calendar, the winner of this race invariably comes from the first three home in the Caulfield Classic (previously Norman Robinson), and MV Vase. Over the last 20 years a whopping 17 out of the 20 winners have been in the first three horses home in those two races. Sure it is not going to work every year, but it is a hard pattern to ignore. Bit different this year with fillies in the finish in both races though, so let’s totally cheat and make it the first three males home. The Geelong Classic on the other hand, has been a totally horrible form reference for this race, only one winner in that time has come through that race, and he started 100-1 and was a well beaten third. There have been plenty of impressive winners and unlucky runners from Geelong contest this race, often they have been well backed, and they just have not won. Again, the pattern will have to break some time, but happy to run with it for now. Got a feeling though that this year we are going to get a funny result. There just doesn’t seem to be real class 3YO stayers in Melbourne, their form this spring has been all topsy turvy, and they have been falling over each other on the way to this race. So not going to be surprised this year to get an unusual result at odds in this race and think you may want to go wide. The speed here this year is extraordinary, can’t remember ever seeing so many on pacers and front runners, so surely some of them will have to sit back a bit. 10-ROYAL STANDING, 16-THE MIGHTY JROD are both likely to go forward from outside barriers, with 6-LOTION, 2-MOONOVERMANHATTAN, 7-NOZOMI all capable of pressing on as well. Think that means we get a real solid tempo this year and you want to look for a solid staying type that is not going to be giving the front of the field too much ground on the turn. Think there is a good chance of a value winner this year so we are going to go 8-LIGHT UP MANHATTAN on top. Has just looked a staying type all spring, the solid tempo here is going to suit and think he gets the run of the race here and might just outstay them. 1-HAMPTON COURT is definitely the one to beat, seems to be going better than most of these and speed on will suit. Just he is going to get into quite short odds, and not sure in what is a bit of a big dumb field if we really want to back him at those odds, just suspect we are going to get an upset this year. Happy to push for super roughie here 10-ROYAL STANDING too, if he gets to the lead and doesn’t get too much pressure think he is going to run much better than his odds suggest and may stick on really well in this. But don’t think there is much between many of these and wouldn’t be surprised to see 2-MOONOVERMANHATTAN or 4-FIREHOUSE ROCK win either, and there is plenty of value to be had in these five main chances. One to risk: 13-PREFERMENT 1st W=$7.10 Roughie: 10-ROYAL STANDING The Key: First three home in the Caulfield Classic and MV Vase RESULTS: Well it had to happen one year, the winner of the Derby coming through the Geelong Classic. We were a bit suss on the form of the Caulfield Classic and MV Vase this year, but as we are hopelessly stuck in our punting ways we got stung with the One To Risk getting up and winning at nice odds. Horse to follow going on is definitely the 9-BONDEIGER, he did really well on a short preparation and seems to have the class turn of foot. Top pick 8-LIGHT UP MANHATTAN runs well at huge odds, but is a staying type who just grinds away. Short priced favourite 1-HAMPTON COURT very disappointing, but questionable to ride him forward on a track that was favouring runners on. |
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