|FLEMINGTON: DERBY DAY - Sat 29th OCT 2016|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
Well here we are at Derby Day already this spring! And this is the first new look Derby Day with the Mackinnon moved back a week and re-named to something and the Emirates Stakes moved back to today and re-named to something else. We have always thought looking at the Derby Day program what it was really lacking a field of 21 mares running down the straight! Hoorah!
Weather is looking perfect for the weekend with fine and sunny times forecast. On warm sunny days with the rail TRUE the racing pattern can favour those on speed, so keep an eye on those going forward and those with good barriers.
In the feature Derby we think the favourite the 1-SACRED ELIXIR is under the odds in a big field. He has the class to win, but may get buried back in the field on the rails from barrier 1 and there seems to be a fair bit of speed this year so the race could be a true staying contest. A lot of the possible dangers have drawn rubbish barriers though. We are happy to stick with the 10-SO SI BON, drawn to come down the middle of the track and should appreciate Flemington and a true staying contest and just canít get over how good 4-ROCKETEERís last few runs have been, especially his last start. Has a really good turn of foot which is often what Derby winners need, but has drawn a horrible barrier. If the lucky breaks come he will be right in this finish at odds.
In the Myer, slightly concerned about the field being full of drop back Sydney milers and there doesnít seem to be much pressure up front at all, so watch out for those who will go forward and have drawn well. Also worth noting that 5 of the last 6 winners of this race have started $15 or better so worth going for an outsider. We are pushing for the 8-SERENE MAJESTY if they can ride her a bit more forward from a good barrier , from the 7-DONíT DOUBT MAMMA with excellent Flemington form, but wary of the on pacer 3 year old the 14-WHISPERING BROOK.
In the ďI Canít Believe Itís Not The Emirates StakesĒ, there is actually quite good speed and normally you need to watch out for strong finishing back markers at the bottom of the weights Ė but that was when the race was run at the end of the week. Safest way to go here might be the 11-MACKINTOSH. drawn well and racing on speed, and there is a seriously good rough chance here at the bottom of the weights in the 15-TIVACI, from the consistent 5-LE ROMAIN.
In the much hyped Coolmore, there are many, much hyped sprinting three year olds going head to head and actually think it is more of a spectacle to watch race as really it is pretty hard to split the main chances here. Suspect something sitting just off them and finishing hard will win, so that should suit the 3-ASTERN, from the 5-STAR TURN and the super smart 2-EXTREME CHOICE. The value runner away from the pin up horses is the 7-SARACINO who has been right in the finish his last two runs and is better suited back in distance.
There is always plenty to bet on during Derby Day so doubling up the Betting Portfolio to $100.
BEST BET: Race 4: 2-REAL LOVE $15 WIN
Extremely honest staying mare who has been racing in career peak form this time in and was given an absolute dud of a ride in the Caulfield Cup, when she still fought out the finish well. There isnít much depth to this race and she will box seat and loves distance and dry tracks. Just think her form is well ahead of her main rivals here and keen to back her straight out at around $5.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 1-HEY DOC $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 1: 1-HEY DOC, 9-VIOLATE x $2
This one has had a great preparation and looked the winner in the Caulfield Guineas when looped around the field and went for home on the turn. Just got run down there, jockey may have gone a touch too early, but he has a really good turn of foot and think that is going to be a big plus here in a race where there doesnít seem to be much speed. Back each way at around $4.50 and take a quinella with the value runner the 9-VIOLATE who we have been following and he keeps running well at odds.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 10-VEZALAY $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 10-VEZALAY#2,8,12,14,20 x $5 = 100%
Have a sneaky feeling we tip this one far too often, but she is a pretty reliable betting proposition normally especially over 1100M and on dry tracks. Usually extremely honest and was ridden a little more quietly than usual 1st up at Caulfield to avoid the strong head wind and just took a bit too long to get into clear running. Drawn inside here and should go forward and box seat and put herself into the finish. In a big field the $17 odds are quite appealing and there should be plenty of value in the quinella with the chance of other long shots in the finish.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 10-SO SI BON $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 7: 10-SO SI BON#1,3, 4,6,14 x $10 = 200%
Solid staying type who looks like he will be suited here with the speed on, out to the 2500M and onto the bigger Flemington track. Has been showing a lot of promise this time in and looks ready to produce something today. Drawn a middle barrier too and a lot of these have drawn wide and should be running on well down the middle of the track. Back each way at around $8 and plenty of value in the quinella with the big field, and really he should be in the finish. Take quinella with the 4-ROCKETEER who has been racing very well and just needs some luck form the barrier, the favourite the 1-SACRED ELIXIR, and the Sydney visitor the 3-SWEAR. Value runners here are the 6-INFERENCE who is also drawn wide and the 14-TUMULTUOUS who was really good late in the Geelong Classic and might appreciate the true staying contest here.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 10-ILLUSTRIOUS LAD $7.50 EW
Utterly and totally hopelessly unlucky last start at Caulfield when got pole axed by a riderless horse on the turn, and had to stop and start again and was still making good ground on the line Ė probably should have gone close to beating the 5-KEEN ARRAY that day who probably starts favourite here. Fitter for the 2 runs in, really good win strike rate, proven down the straight and looks a great each way bet to end the day at around $11.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 8-SERENE MAJESTY $5 EW
The Myer has thrown up quite a few upsets in recent years so we might as well back one at odds. This one has a fair bit of talent on her day and the run at Caulfield last start was better than it looked as she took time to come around runners and was finishing well once she got into the clear. Fitter for the 3 runs in and she can be ridden forward, so just listen out for riding tactics. 1600M is the unknown, but if she races on the speed here think she will be in the finish at around $21 and might get out to long, long odds on the tote.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 15-TIVACI $5 EW
Always worth backing something at odds in the bottom on the weights in the old Emirates Stakes and this one looks close to a win. Fitter for the 3 runs in and was right in the mix against many of these last start. Should still have improvement to come and should be better suited back to Flemington and out to the 1600M and maybe ridden a bit more quietly in a race with a lot of speed. Worth something each way at around $26.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 5-TOM MELBOURNE at around $4
Admittedly we do take this one on most starts and he does look like he is starting to run into form, but really he does have a nasty habit of getting beaten when in the market and has yet to live up to anything like his potential. Improved run last start, but not sure of the strength of that field and should get a soft lead here but just think the (2) and the (8) are far superior stayers on current form and one of them should have his measure in this.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
DAILY DOUBLE: Races 7,9: 3,4,6,10,14 / 9,10 x $5 = 50%
Think there is a good chance of a value winner in the Derby so letís leave the favourite out and look for a collect in the Daily Double. Taking top pick the 10-SO SI BON, the in form 4-ROCKETEER, the Sydney visitor the 3-SWEAR and the value runners the 6-INFERENCE and especially the 14-TUMULTUOUS. We have two value chances in the last race too, and have already backed the -ILLUSTRIOUS LAD and the main danger is the in form 9-WEíVE GOT THIS who loves the Flemington straight course. Should be looking at a dividend close to a $100 if something at value gets up in the Derby.
Race 1: 1-HEY DOC, 9-VIOLATE, 3-MORTONíS FORK
Race 2: 2-PRETTY PUNK, 6-TIAMO GRACE, 5-BELLA SORELLASTRA
Race 3: 10-VEZALAY, 14-PRIVATE SECRETARY, 2-SHEIDEL
Race 4: 2-REAL LOVE, 8-OCEANOGRAPHER, 4-PENTATHLON
Race 5: 3-ASTERN, 5-STAR TURN, 2-EXTEME CHOICE
Race 6: 8-SERENE MAJESTY, 7-DONíT DOUBT MAMMA, 14-WHISPERING BROOK,
Race 7: 10-SO SI BON, 4-ROCKETEER, 1-SACRED ELIXIR
Race 8: 11-MACKINTOSH , 15-TIVACI, 5-LE ROMAIN,
Race 9: 10-ILLUSTRIOUS LAD, 9-WEíVE GOT THIS, 5-KEEN ARRAY