|FLEMINGTON: DERBY DAY - 4th Nov 2017|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: CLOUDY - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
The weather for Cup Week is forecast to be pretty bland for most of the week, cloudy and maximums around 18 with a few showers. But there is no significant rain forecast, so this track should remain a GOOD(4) without going into the softer categories. Rail goes back to TRUE here, and sometimes on a warm, sunny Derby Day we can get a strong leader bias, and we have seen that often this spring with little rain around, both Caulfield and Moonee Valley carnivals favoured on pacers. Not likely to get that warm though, so we should get even racing today, and the big fields should ensure a solid speed in the races, but always consider on pacers on these feature race days. Down the straight it is supposed to be pretty even across the track, but suspect they will prefer the inside rail.
This is a super challenging Derby Day, one of the hardest we can remember with big, even fields right across the day. Normally Derby Day is a day for a confident bet, as these have all been racing against each other all spring so you can line them up, but there have been several wipe out days in the last ten years. Think you want to play wide today, these markets have a bit of depth, and there are going to be plenty of double figure winners. Wide running doubles might be the punting tool of choice, or back a few horses to win in each race.
In the feature VRC Derby, this is one of the most even fields we can remember. Normally there are solid form lines going into this race, the winner just about always comes out of the first three home in the Caulfield Classic or the MV Vase, and you can narrow it down to a few main chances and have a confident bet. The field this year doesnít inspire us at all, the winners of both the lead up races are not going around, and those that are going around were well beaten without much of an excuse. Suspect there is a good chance of an upset result, but struggling to identify the horse to do it. We are going to stick with the 5-MAIN STAGE on top, traditionally the first three home in the lead up races are the ones to follow, but fully admit his run in the Caulfield Classic was pretty disappointing. However, his win here before that was sensational coming from last, and think if he repeats that run he wins this. That win showed the class turn of foot you need to win a Derby, and none of these have really shown that. Stable mate 6-SULLY the main danger, who has been racing well in Sydney and looks to be building to something this spring, and even the stableís other runner the 13-JOHNNY VINKO isnít without a chance at massive odds with a better barrier and run here. For third though we are going to push for a roughie in 8-ABERRO who hasnít been too far away in his lead up runs and fought on really well last start in a leader dominated race. Genuine chances to the 2-TANGLED, with traditional lead up form, and the 7-WEATHER WITH YOU who was super tough leading the length of the Geelong straight last start (but note the (8) beat him home the start prior and will start 4 x the odds today). Not a race we really want to have much of a bet in though and one of the few times a Field double might be actually worth considering (if that counts as some sort of advice).
In the Coolmore Stakes, well it is going to be a spectacle at least with 20 horses spreading out down the straight. Would hate to be the horse drawn (1) on the inside rail Ė and thatís the favourite! There is a ridiculous amount of speed on the inside, and not much on the outside. Think you want something drawn middle, that will run on strongly and get a clear run at them, but come to the inside rail. That puts the 17-TULIP on top, coming off a good run in The Everest. Happy to entertain the 2-KEMENTARI running on strongly dropping back in distance, and the consistent 6-JUKEBOX who might just need some luck to poke through late from an inside barrier. The other chance is the 19-INVINCIBLE STAR who was brilliant leading and winning last start, but assume they might just take a sit today from a middle barrier with so much other speed in the race. Not really a race for a confident bet though.
The Myer is a very open race and you could make a case for many of these and there isnít much between them. Barriers and position in running will be crucial, but there does look to be enough speed with the (2), (4), (12) to allow them to run on. Putting the 8-DIXIE BLOSSOMS on top, consistently in the finish in these races, good mile record and ran 4th in this race last year with very similar form. The value runner is the improving 14-NOW OR LATER who won well here 2 starts back and then got blocked for runs in a leader dominated race last start, and looks like the 1600M will suit, and have to respect the 3YO filly 11-SHOALS who looks to get a great on speed run from the barrier and coming off very strong form lines. Other main chance is the classy 5-SILENT SEDITION on speed from a good barrier.
The Whatever The Mile Race Is Called This Year is also quite open with a half dozen genuine chances. There doesnít seem to be much speed here though, just the (5) and the (7) and think you probably wonít want to drop too far back. The 10-SOVEREIGN NATION just looks primed for this, fitter for the 2 runs in, both been eye catching finishing bursts in feature Group 1 races and lightly weighted. Just probably needs to settle a bit closer from an inside barrier. The notorious non-winner the 7-DIBAYANI is the value runner, fitter for 2 runs in, drops in weight, ran on well last start and drawn to get a perfect on speed run here and suspect the 6-EGG TART will improve off the last run after a injury let up. Outside the three picks, the 5-TOM MELBOURNE is also going to get a very nice on speed run, but we have better things to do with our money, and respect the strong finishing 9-SHILLELAGH if she can get clear from an inside barrier (and luck in running normally isnít her thing). Very even race though and the betting will be interesting.
We will double up our normal Betting Portfolio to $100 as there is always plenty to be on, on Derby Day. We have a suggested bet in just about every race and have mixed it up a little to keep your day on the punt hopefully most interesting.
BEST BET : Race 4: 2-HARLEM $15 WIN
The staying race is the smallest field of the day, so probably the race you can bet most confidently in. Donít think there are many winning chances in this race, and quite a few are coming off long preparations, whilst this one has always been heading towards the Melbourne Cup. Needs to win today to ensure himself a start on Tuesday. He was brilliant winning 3 starts back at Caulfield, even enough at Flemington when up sharply in distance, and thereabouts in the Caulfield Cup when just held up for runs a little on the turn. Coming through stronger races than his rivals here and looks the one to beat at around $4.
BEST WIN: Race 9: 11-RICH CHARM $10 WIN
BEST WIN: Race 9: 8-BONS AWAY $5 WIN
DAILY DOUBLE: Races 7,9: 5,6,7,8,13 / 8,11 x $5 = 50%
The (11) here is one of our favourite horses at the moment, and it is going to be awesome to see the look on the small trainers face if she can win a race on Derby Day. And we canít see why not, the horse has been in flying form all year and has an amazing finishing burst, which we saw last start when he looked like he was going to run a strong finishing second, but somehow managed to run down the leader. Looks to be a sprinter on the rise, won 4 of last 5 starts (and was unlucky in the race he missed), even fitter for the 2 runs in, building a very impressive win strike rate and has solid straight track Flemington form. Drawn middle to run on suits too. Looks a clear top pick at around $6, but suspect money will come for something else and might get better odds on the day. Donít think there are many other dangers either, but the main one is the (8) who beat a smart one 2 starts back at Caulfield, and was good here last start in a leader dominated race. Back both to win, and have a little Daily Double throwing in some of the value chances in the Derby and hope for an extra kick in the dividend.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 10-LORD SUNDOWNER $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 1: 10-LORD SUNDOWNER#5,7,11 x $3 = 100%
Letís get on the leader in the first race of the day, at least you will get a good run for your money. He was really good last start at Caulfield, even though the track was favouring on pacers, and he was coming back on the line against the winner. Drawn out, but very little pressure up front here and looks like he is going to get a clear lead and will probably kick clear early in the straight here Ė just a matter if one of the smarter milers comes out and runs him down. Back each way at around $14, and value in the quinella with the favourite the (7) who was good late in the Caulfield Guineas, the Sydney visitor the (5), and the up and coming (11) who got held up for runs last start, but has drawn inside again today.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 2-SAVANNA AMOUR $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 2-SAVANNA AMOUR, 6-LYUBA, 4-DESERT LASHES boxed x $6 = 200%
Sprinter who has been flying this campaign and won a few times at very nice odds. Happy to forgive the last start failure when up in distance and in a harder race, and better suited back to the 1200M here. Like the barrier too, she can sit on speed in clear running and get the run of the race here. Back each way at around $13, and seeing we donít like the favourite in this race, box up a value quinella with the (2), (4), and (6), which should pay well if the favourite flops.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 10-SOVEREIGN NATION $7.50 EW
Very even field for the feature mile race and there are about six solid chances in the betting. This one used to be a bit of a tease, but he seems to have put it all together more recently. Had a two month let up, and then has run on really well last two starts in the feature Group 1 races. Should be fitter for those runs and looks ready to peak for this race. Flemington stats are pretty good, has drawn inside, would maybe like to see them ride a little more forward today as there doesnít seem to be much speed in this race. Tough race to split them, but he looks to have more improvement than most coming into this and is worth an each way bet at round $9.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 13-SNOGGING $3 EW
Stable has three Derby runners so they could be in for a good day. This one was super impressive winning her maiden, then couldnít get a clear run at them on the rails here two starts back before coming wide and struggling to run one down at Mornington when a short priced favourite (ouch!). Looks a solid staying type. Is drawn very wide here, and we would want them to be running on and winning OK, but think she represents the value in the race at around $20 and worth a little each way bet.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 14-NOW OR LATER $3 EW
Imported mare who seems to be improving with each campaign in Australia. Launched late to win well here two starts back, and then a total forgive run last start when dropped back on a leaders track and couldnít get clear running early in the straight. Back to Flemington and the 1600M should suit and drawn nicely to launch late again at around $15.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 8-ABERRO $2 EW
Taking this one on spec a little, as he has just been plodding away in his lead up runs, but not being beaten that far. Seems to be slowly, maybe very, very slowly building to something this spring and thought he fought on well to run 4th in the leader dominated Derby lead up race last start. Mainly trying to find something at odds in a race we donít really like Ė and landed on him, so a little dabble at around $34 and see if we can spot the upset runner in the feature race.
LAY OF THE DAY : Race 3: 5-NIETA at around $4.80
Tricky to find a Lay today with open fields and not many runners under $5. This one is a Sydney sprinter who somehow started a short priced favourite last start at Caulfield, on a leaders track, as a runner onÖnice work punters. That effort was OK, but hardly inspiring and form is starting to look like she prefers it wet. Down the straight for the first time, and probably going to start favourite again, and just prefer to back others today.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multi bet.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE: Race 2: 5-HIYAAM
PLACE: Race 3: 2-SAVANNA AMOUR
PLACE: Race 4: 10-KELLSTORM
PLACE: Race 8: 7-DIBAYANI
Trying to stick with the smaller fields to ensure a better chance of at least getting warm. In Race 2, the 5-HIYAAM is drawn well, fitter for the 3 runs in and should go forward and should be in the finish. We have already backed Race 3: 2-SAVANNA AMOUR in the suggested bets, but she represents a good value place bet getting a good on speed run from a middle barrier. In the staying race, the hard and fit Race 4: 10-KELLSTORM should be in the finish somewhere and then the trick is coming home on the roughie in the feature mile Ė the notorious non-winner Race 8: 7-DIBAYANI. He is fitter for the 2 runs in, is well drawn today, gets a big weight drop from last start where he ran on well, and will go forward in a race with not much speed. Just get the feeling he is going to do something and might be in the finish. Looking at around $600 for a $5 outlay if we can get these into the finish somewhere.
Race 1: 10-LORD SUNDOWNER, 7-LEVENDI, 5-SAMBRO
Race 2: 5-HIYAAM, 1-BRING ME ROSES, 13-SNOGGING
Race 3: 2-SAVANNA AMOUR, 6-LYUBA, 4-DESERT LASHES
Race 4: 2-HARLEM, 6-VENGEUR MASQUE, 10-KELLSTORM
Race 5: 17-TULIP, 2-KEMENTARI, 6-JUKEBOX
Race 6: 8-DIXIE BLOSSOMS, 14-NOW OR LATER, 16-SHOALS
Race 7: 5-MAIN STAGE, 6-SULLY, 8-ABERRO
Race 8: 10-SOVEREIGN NATION, 7-DIBAYANI, 6-EGG TART
Race 9: 11-RICH CHARM, 8-BONS AWAY, 1-ILLUSTRIOUS LAD