|FLEMINGTON : DERBY DAY - 2nd November 2019|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: STORMS - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
Hot and sunny weather heading into the weekend, but then there are major storms, rain and wind forecast for Friday night and most of Saturday which is going to make it very difficult to work out the racing pattern. Suspect we are going to get a track downgrade to a genuine soft track and the wind will be a major factor. Rail is TRUE for the first time since Makybe Diva Stakes day which favoured on pacers and those coming down the outside rail in the straight. With rain and wind it is likely it will be difficult to lead and win, and look for horses drawn good barriers that will get cover in the run and maybe head towards wider barriers later in the day. Down the straight they are likely to head towards the middle to outside of the track.
For the feature VRC Derby, this looks like a really good edition of the race and a great punting race. The best form races are invariably the Caulfield Classic and the Moonee Valley Vase and the winner can often come from the first three home in each race, though this hasnít been as strong in recent years. We donít seem to have as much Sydney form this spring as previous years in many races, assume that is the changed schedule and increased prize money up there. The Geelong Classic isnít normally a great reference at all for this race, though 8 of the 16 runners here are coming through that race, so they have the weight of numbers this year at least.
From the Caulfield Classic, we actually prefer the run of the second horse the 4-WARNING. The leader there the favourite 3-THOUGHT OF THAT got to dictate in the lead on a track favouring those on speed and was very impressive winning, but 4-WARNING came from last and wide around them and worked to the line really well. He was dominant here winning over 1800M two starts back in a very tough race and a tough slogging big track 2500M looks to suit ideally. Out of the MV Vase, the 2-SOUL PATCH was absolutely dominant, it was a sit and sprint race, but donít look at the winning margin on the video, look at how far ahead he was when the camera panned back to him after the finish Ė he has a serious engine and is a quality horse. We have been following him all spring and he has a lot of potential to come, only query might be a tough slogging staying 2500M race. The Geelong Classic was a tough slog as it often is, we were actually on the bolter 13-TRANSLATOR who on a leaders track had to go 5 wide and early from the back of the field and was fighting out the finish the whole length of the straight to fade and finish fourth (of course, when you are on each way at $70). Was a huge run though, and those in the finish have generally been safely held in the lead up races by others here. The only Sydney runner is the smart 1-SHADOW KING who looked very dour grinding home last start to win but the form through CASTELVECCHIO obviously looks very strong after the Cox Plate. Like that he is drawn out in space as he looks like he needs a long sustained run into the finish.
Speed here is the 3-THOUGHT OF THAT going forward from barrier 1, but question will be if they are coming off the rails in the straight and if the wind and rain is making it hard for leaders to win.
We should also see the 11-RELUCENT going forward and the 7-INDEPENDENT ROAD, 10-SOUTHERN MOON sitting handy, but there doesnít look to be a great deal of speed. Suspect one of these runners will take it up and really stride out and make them run along though.
Question with this race is always if we go with the best stayer or the best class horse? We actually think the 4-WARNING is the best stayer on lead up form here, tough slogging Flemington win 2 starts back in a race where they went very fast up front and he was extremely strong and drawing away from them on the line, and on speed racing pattern simply didnít suit at Caulfield. That run was much better than it looks. The class horse for us is definitely the 2-SOUL PATCH, he has an explosive turn of foot and could really stamp himself today with a dynamite win. Question with him is going to be a wet track and a tough slogging 2500M that might take a little off his brilliant finish. We have to stick with the 2-SOUL PATCH on top, mainly because we have been following him all spring, from the 4-WARNING and pretty confident that one of these two wins. This race actually has a very long tail, so there is going to be plenty of value in the exotics and we think the 6-HUNTLY CASTLE actually has much better form than it looks, so he goes in for third. He has been building to a win this spring, was good here two starts back and another who got too far back on a leaders track at Caulfield and suspect he is going to run a much better race today at odds. Respect for the 10-SOUTHERN MOON who looks to get a perfect run on speed here, and the best roughie is the 13-TRANSLATOR who is a maiden but was huge in the Geelong Classic. Very keen to bet on the top two picks though, and will also probably stand them out in a quinella and some trifectas or first fours with the roughies to place.
Derby Day is normally one of the best days of the year to have a bet, most of these horses have exposed form and have been running against each other so you should be able to line them up. The first half of the program though looks pretty ordinary, plenty of clear short priced favourites which should just about win, and the Hotham Handicap is just feral and one of the worse runnings we have seen for a while, you would struggle to find 13 horses we care less about. Then the second half of the day we have all the feature races that are close to capacity fields with plenty of depth and plenty of chances. Key to sorting them out is going to be how much rain we get and if they are coming off the rails and winning running on. Have a read through the comments below, we have also pointed out a few value runners at odds for exotics. We are going to double up to $100 in the Betting Portfolio, and also throw in a nice mix and spread of bets to keep the once a year punters interested for the day.
BEST BET: Race 2: 5-VEGAS JEWEL $7 WIN
TRIFECTA: Race 2: 5/1,6,10 /1,2,3,6,10,11 x $3 = 20%
This one has only had the 3 starts and has been stepping up in distance and class each time and only has been beaten once, and that wasnít by much at all. Should have a lot of improvement to come with the 2000M run and she really toughed it out to the line well there. Just think she may run out the 2000M better here than her main rival the short priced 1-FLIT and happy to back straight out at around $3.40. Watch out for the two Adelaide runners in this race the 6-SILENT SOVEREIGN and the 10-MAGAZINE who both may run a race at odds if you want to play some exotics with the favoured runners. Which we might as well do with a small trifecta as backing a $3.50 shot straight out is a little dull.
BEST WIN: Race 7: 2-SOUL PATCH $10 WIN
BEST WIN: Race 7: 4-WARNING $5 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 7: 2-SOUL PATCH, 4-WARNING x $5
We are pretty keen in the feature race, the VRC Derby on the classy 2-SOUL PATCH and the staying 4-WARNING fighting out the finish, so letís back them with confidence straight out at $5 and $9 respectively and also in the quinella. The 4-WARNING in particular is over the odds if we get substantial rain as even though he has never seen wet ground he looks like a really tough stayer. We have even thrown in a trifecta in the Turf Deli Wonder bet as well.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 10-NETTOYER $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 5: 10-NETTOYER, 1-INVINCIBELLA, 15-FIDELIA boxed x $6 = 200%
Really tough Sydney miler mare who was actually aimed at the Cox Plate last week but didnít make the final field. She will run out a tough mile and will be suited if the rain comes and they are winning running on. Even though she doesnít have any wet track wins, most of those runs have been in feature races and she has ran OK. She worked home really well in the Epsom which is great form for this race and looks really good value at around $16 in a very open race. Back each way, and take a box quinella with the 1-INVINCIBELLA who has excellent wet track form and is always thereabouts in these sorts of races, and we actually think dear old 15-FIDELIA is going to run a race today, despite being costly to punters, a strongly run Flemington 1600M with horses winning running on is what she wants. Should be plenty of value around in the quinella in a wide open race with lots of genuine double figure chances.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 8-NIGHTíS WATCH $7 EW
Pretty sure we did swear to never, ever tip this one again as he can be costly to follow, but he does look well in today. Shoulda won first up at Caulfield when he was held up for runs the length of the straight, Coulda won at Flemington but WFA class was a bit much, and Woulda won in the Toorak but just took too long to get into clear running and worked home really well once clear. Yes, there are a million excuses but he does look suited here today, drawn middle, always thought he was better on wet tracks, and a track likely to favour those running on. Each way at around $7 and no more excuses today buddy. Note we are having a second bet in this race with Best Rough 4-LIFE LESS ORDINARY below.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 5-HUMMA HUMMA $7 EW
QUINELLA: Race 9: 5-HUMMA HUMMA#1,2,3,10 x $4 = 100%
Super consistent, and under rated sprinter who seems to be always in the finish and is flying this time in. Swooped them at MV on a leaders track and then again won against the racing pattern at Caulfield. No wet track form but only soft track start was beaten less than 2 lengths in an Adelaide feature sprint. Slightly concerned about the inside barrier coming into the last race of the day if that is going to be the place to be, but back each way at around $7.50 and save on a quinella with the consistent 1-MANICURE, the classy 2-TOFANE, the 3-RESIN who was unlucky last start as well but has also drawn inside, and watch out for the roughie here 10-MISS IANO who were are also going to back each way as a roughie below.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 11-WALL OF FIRE $1.50 EW
We have close to no interest in the Hotham Stakes at all, which is a shame as normally itís a really interesting race as the last chance for horses to qualify for the Melbourne Cup. But really donít care about this lot, so as a protest bet lets push for an outsider here in the 11-WALL OF FIRE. Does has ability but hasnít really put it all together in Australia except for his first run down under when a good 2nd in a Herbert Power. Has obviously had issues and been off most of the year, but should be fitter for the 2 runs back and especially the 2400M run where he joined in on the home turn there but just ran out of puff. Should improve further today and might do something at around $26.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 14-BROOKLYN HUSTLE $2 EW
Pretty sure we also said we would never back this one again, but he should be fitter for the 2 runs in and he is a strong finisher suited drawn out running on late down the straight. Most of the key chances here are drawn inside and not sure that is going to be the place to be, so for value he might finally live up to the spruik on him and do something at around $21. At the very least, he is pretty to look at as he finishes 5th or 6th again.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 4-LIFE LESS ORDINARY $3 EW
Having a second bet in this race as we have a lot of time for this guy and he is just so consistent. We actually tipped him as best rough in this race last year, and he flew home along the inside lacking clear running to finish 5th at $31. He has drawn extremely wide, but he likes long sustained runs at them and is always extremely strong at the end of his races, so running on late down the middle of the track on wet ground looks ideal. The 1600M isnít his best trip, he prefers it a bit longer, but the wind and rain means it will be a very tough mile today. Definitely have a saver on him at around $20, he is normally a very reliable bet.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 10-MISS IANO $2 EW
Having a second bet in this race as well, and think this is a great value roughie to end the day on. She totally smashed them winning back at Caulfield in July on a soft track, just missed the bob the start after that and then she was ready to burst through last start when the gap closed and hard to tell how much she had to give. She is proven on wet ground, strong finisher and drawn outside which may be the better going so think she is going to do something today at around $20 as a get out in the last.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4:13-PIPPIE at around $4.80
This mare has a stack of ability, but she is either very, very good, or very, very bad and something obviously not right when beaten $1.95 fav last start. She is the leader here, and drawn wide and the outside might be better going, but she just doesnít strike us as a Flemington straight horse, 1200M is as far as she wants and a Flemington 1200M might find her out Ė especially leading into wind, rain and hail, Happy to risk at around $4.80.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a house on The Block.
TRIFECTA: 2, 4/ 2,4,6,10 /1,2,3,4,6,7,10,13 x $5 = 13.88%
Letís try and snare the trifecta in the feature race where we a confident that either the 2-SOUL PATCH or 4-WARNING wins and we suspect the value roughie 6-HUNTLY CASTLE is going to run a race. Load up for third and hope something out of the ordinary like 10-SOUTHERN MOON or 13-TRANSLATOR runs a place to blow out the dividend.
Race 1: 4-ZOUTORI, 2-MALIBU STYLE, 7-RENEWAL
Race 2: 5-VEGAS JEWEL, 6-SILENT SOVEREIGN, 1-FLIT
Race 3: 2-GROUNDSWELL, 5-HEIRBORN, 7-HILO
Race 4: 8-THE CHOSEN ONE, 11-WALL OF FIRE, 6-PATRICK ERIN,
Race 5: 10-NETTOYER, 1-INVINCIBELLA, 15-FIDELIA
Race 6: 6-EXCEEDANCE, 2-BIVOUAC, 14-BROOKLYN HUSTLE
Race 7: 2-SOUL PATCH, 4-WARNING, 6-HUNTLY CASTLE
Race 8: 8-NIGHTíS WATCH, 4-LIFE LESS ORDINARY, 14-STAR OF THE SEAS
Race 9: 5-HUMMA HUMMA, 1-MANICURE 10-MISS IANO