Mixing up the weather heading into Cup Week with a couple of days of substantial rain forecast before Cup Day. Rain Friday leading into a fine Saturday and this track should come up with some give in it early before drying out as the day progresses. Fresh ground on the inside with rail back to the TRUE, Derby Day normally races fairly with a slight advantage to be on-speed and closer to the inside which may become more evident later on a drying day. There hasn’t been much difference down the straight this spring which makes life tough for punters, with a slight advantage to be middle to outside, but that should even out today as well.
Is it just us or was this program much better when we had the Mackinnon and Dalgety to kick off Cup Week? Rather lacklustre program and normally we double up to $100 on Derby Day with plenty to bet on, but there are a lot of short priced favourites today which should win and not that much value around elsewhere so actually treading lightly. Have tried to pick out some nice each way bets for the $5 each out Spring Carnival punters.
For Spring Campaign 2025 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 6: 3-TENTYRIS $5 WIN, QUINELLA 3-TENTYRIS#5-SKYHOOK, 10-BEADMAN x $3 = 150%
The stand out race on the program with all the key 3YO sprinters going down the straight and normally want to be on a strong finisher in this race. The win of this one last start at Caulfield was absolutely extraordinary, held up at the back of the field and the race looked all over till he launched late. Proven down the straight, strong finisher, still stinging he didn’t land a nice collect for us in the Blue Diamond, but speed on here should suit and he should come over the top of these late. Back straight out at around $4 and quinella with the main chances the value runner the 5-SKYHOOK who was really unlucky two starts back and the strong finishing 10-BEADMAN who also hasn’t had that much luck and trialled well here.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 5-LIVE $4 EW
One of the more open betting races of the day but this one looks to be one on the way up. Good maiden win and then finished on hard from well back last start at MV and hit the line well behind one that thrashed them. Well drawn and question mark on a lot of these if they will run 1400M and suspect this one will. Each way at around $8.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 12-ENXUTO $4 EW
Scratched from the Sale Cup last week because of the wet track but he may reap the rewards here of winning a race on Derby Day. Good Flemington dry track horse, drawn well and he can probably race handy today and was working to the line well here last start suggesting he is now ready to win off two runs this time in. Speed on here should suit, he likes to weave through the field off a strong tempo. Looks a nice each way bet at the bottom of the weights at around $11. Shame the short-priced favourite was scratched here, we had this one on top regardless.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 3-ABOUNDING $4 EW
This one has been right in the finish in every race this spring, often with little running room and she doesn’t seem to have much respect going into this race. On trial at the 1600M, but she always seems strong at the end of 1400M and can’t see that being much of an issue. Barrier 1 may be asking for trouble again, but with a tear away leader the field should string out here and like being on a hard fit horse under those circumstances. Each way at around $11.
QUINELLA Race 9: 3,5,7,14 boxed x $6 = 100%
The straight races often throw up some value results and suspect outside barriers will be right in the mix here. The 5-STRETAN ANGEL finally got back to winning form last start and loves going down the straight, the 14-FLYING FOR FUN from Sydney has been racing well and is one to watch out for, the 3-SHE’S BULLETPROOF is in winning form and the 7-PRARIE FLOWER often runs good races at odds and is ready to do something today off the two runs this time in. Nice value box quinella to end the day.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 12-SUPARAZI $1 EW, QUINELLA 4,6,8,10,12 boxed x $5 = 50%
One we are absolutely and utterly totally guilty of tipping and backing too often, but he just so often runs good races at long odds. He is better over further, but is placed 6/10 over the 1200M and he did run a really good race here in the Newmarket earlier on in the year. Had something to give here last start and jockey made the mistake of trying to make runs back to the middle of the field instead of staying to the outside, he didn’t finish it off after looking like he was going to run into the finish, but similar set up here today. Like the outside barrier for him flashing home late as rank outsider at $81. Looks a good value box quinella race and the 4-STAR PATROL is always hard to beat down the straight, the 6-AMEENA would win this on her best form and looks over the odds, the 8-WATCHME WIN was on the wrong side of the straight here last start and the 10-HEDGED will camp on speed and form has stood up from beaten favourite last start.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 4-SHEZA ALIBI at around $2.20
This one ran a great race first-up and looks to have some potential but there are plenty here coming off good last start runs and often these 3YO races one steps up and improves suddenly. May win, but looks far too short for us to get interested.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a helicopter ride to the course for Melbourne Cup Day.
TRIFECTA: Race 7: 1,9 / 1,4,6,9,14 / 1,2,4,6,9,14,16 x $5 = 12.5%
Happy to narrow it down to the 1-OBSERVER, 9-O’SHEAMUS as the main winning chances in the Derby, the 4-MIEWA and 14-SAVISANTA are the value place chances and then really pretty much anything could lob into the placings outside of these so pick a number, any number.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 3,5,10 / 1,4,9 / 3,6,9,10 / 3,5,7,10,14 x $20 = 11.11%
Stick to the selections in the first two legs and hope for something outside the obvious to win and always want to go wide in the straight races to end the day. Quaddie probably pays better than expected here there are plenty of chances in some of these legs.
Feature Race Preview: VICTORIA DERBY 2500M GROUP 1
Always a lot of talk about the distance of this race for 3YOs every year, but there are not many races that year after year get a full field plus emergencies, so there are plenty of horses keen to run over 2500M as a spring 3YO. This race is always one of the best betting races of the spring, big field, plenty of value and long established form lines in that the winner invariably comes from the first few home in the MV Vase or the Caulfield Classic meaning we can have a confident bet.
Over the last 30 years, 10 winners have come through the Caulfield Classic (Norman Robinson) as their lead-up run, 12 through the MV Vase, and 3 through the Spring Champion in Sydney, though to be fair the runners from those races also make up most of the field. An astounding 26 out of 30 have finished top 3 in their lead up run, these horses are all well exposed and have been racing against each other and the form isn’t going to change today. Normally we get a strong challenger down from Sydney but with the change in programming up there with the Spring Champion that makes it difficult to back up a week later into this race. Generally the winner has had more than one preparation and 5 or more career starts, it is pretty much impossible to win this race with fewer starts.
The 3YO races have been extremely even this time in, with the first six horses within 1.2L of each other in a slowly run Caulfield Classic in an extremely bunched field, 3 horses within 0.25L of each other in the Flemington Derby Preview, a photo finish in the Super Impose and 5 horses within 1.2L of each other in the Geelong Classic. Which means we really want to pay attention to the MV Vase as the form race with big gaps between the placegetters and back to the rest of the field.
The speed here actually looks quite genuine and there are quite a few here that can race handy. The 7-AZAZEL is the likely early leader with the 2-HIGHVOL likely to press forward from an outside barrier here (listen for riding tactics), the 1-OBSERVER will get the perfect on-speed sit and the 8-ARCORA and 12-MATSUDA likely to be up nice and handy as well. There is a long tail of maidens here and whilst there is every chance one will step up and run a place, it also makes it tough for horses who drop well back to come through the field around slow tiring horses.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-OBSERVER has been flying this preparation, he was very light on going into the Caulfield Guineas off only one run this preparation and was right in the finish and with a little luck would have gone even closer. Had to work early in the MV Vase, but went to the lead and had them chasing well before the turn and even though he was eased down on the line seemed to have them well covered. Well drawn and can sit handy here and this race is basically his to lose – he has by far the best form going into the race and has the most versatile in racing pattern out of these. Only query may be if something ran them along here and this turned into a tough staying slog. Rare to have a horse off a strong Caulfield Guineas run and a dominant MV Vase win going into this race and given the others are so even, he looks to be well ahead of the other form lines and deserves to be clear favourite. Definitely the one to beat.
2-HIGHVOL looked to be a prime player in this off his first preparation with strong on-speed wins at Flemington. Been mixing his form this time in, made good ground out wide against the racing pattern in the Stutt Stakes, but not competitive when well beaten in the Caulfield Guineas. Went to the lead in the Geelong Classic (which is rarely the form race for the Derby) and was favoured by the on-speed bias when fought out the finish well, even though he looked tired and running around a bit. Outside barrier here and likely to press forward, think he probably wants a strong staying tough slog. Does meet the rest of the field from Geelong a substantial 3kgs better off and that probably puts him in with a rough place chance here, plugging away on-speed. Place.
3-AUTUMN MYSTERY put in some great runs in feature 2YO races and he has shown that he is one tough bugger with a long hard second preparation where he has been in the finish pretty much every start. Beaten $1.30 favourite (ouch) in a maiden at Ballarat on a heavy track, but bounced back to win a tight 3 way finish in the Flemington Derby Preview and then he was held up for runs when going on to win the Caulfield Classic in a bunched finish. Shown a fair bit of toughness to win in competitive finishes his last two starts and wasn’t suited by slow speed last start. Outside barrier a big negative here, can see him dropping well back today and having to make a long sustained run at them. Winning form a plus and he can get into the finish with the right run, but those bunched finishes are a worry. Place only.
4-MIEWA has been right in the finish at every start this campaign, whooshed past them to win easily at MV and then right in the finish of the Super Impose and also the Caulfield Classic when he was held up for runs half-way down the straight and hit the line well. Really liked the Super Impose 1800M run, he was well back and made a long sustained run before being nabbed right on the line by the (5). Drawn well here and no reason why he can’t settle midfield or better today in a big field. Has consistent form going into this and he can be competitive here, think this one is over the odds and probably the best one coming through this form line. Ridden forward and picking out gaps he is a chance here to run into the finish. Rough chance.
5-OPTIONS is still in his first preparation and he rapidly went through the grades with strong finishing bursts in first two wins, before striking considerable interference and still right in the finish in the Flemington Derby Preview. Strong staying effort to win the Super Impose, and then not suited at MV last week ridden back in the field on an on-speed day and worked home well once he got a clear run into the race. Well drawn, but he does tend to drop back in the field and would have to dodge through a lot of slow ones to get into the race here. Definitely better than last start suggests, but hard to see him beating home the first three from the MV Vase and he also doesn’t tick the important form line of being a placegetter in this lead-in run. This is a tough ask at the end of his first preparation. Prefer to risk this one. Place only.
6-PROVIDENCE is still a maiden but has run some great races at the top 3YO level. Avoided the Spring Champion in Sydney last week to come down for the MV Vase, and was definitely an eye-catcher, coming from last before the turn to run on strongly and give the eased down leader a bit of a scare. Great run in a leader dominated race on an on-speed track and even without the leader easing down he would have been making solid ground on him. Have to respect MV Vase placegetters into the Derby. Nice solid long preparation going into this, and last run was probably his best career run. Ride here is going to be the key, he does have a tendency to drop back in the run and it will be tough to win this from last, so if he settles mid-field or better he is a strong winning chance and some chance may outstay the favourite over 2500M. Strong chance.
7-AZAZEL is still in his first preparation and only up to his fourth start so the stats are strongly against him winning this. He has been right in the finish every start this time in and presents as a tough staying type who just grinds away. Can race on-speed and would want a true staying contest, suspect others here have a stronger turn of foot than him. Geelong Classic winners would have just about contested this race every single year – but they have never won (and some of them have been well in the market), and the placegetters have only won twice. Will go forward and contest the lead here and may stick on OK but prefer others.
8-ARCORA looked a promising staying type with Flemington 1800M win as a 2YO, but hasn’t quite stepped up in the 3YO staying races. Badly held up for runs in the Super Impose and was building momentum again towards the line, and was well in the market in the Geelong Classic when he had to switch across runners to get a run and wasn’t far off in the finish. Not sure he would have won with a clear run. Can jump and go forward here, but impossible to work out how he is actually going and has been involved in bunched finishes in lead up runs. Passing.
9-O’SHEAMUS is down from Sydney and was strong winning two starts back chasing down one that had kicked clear. Run in the MV Vase was excellent, held up for runs on the home turn and chased hard to the line and his run was probably just as good as the other Sydney runner. Well drawn here is a very big plus and likely to get a good run behind the speed and really like the way he has chased home the last two starts. He is right in this race, he seems to be building this spring. Winning chance.
10-AMAZAKE is still a maiden and got a good run into the race in the Caulfield Classic on-speed and was part of the bunched finish, but felt the others around him had his measure there. Well drawn and another who can go forward here, but not sure he is going well enough to be a factor in this. No.
11-ENGINE OF WAR has only had 4 career starts so is challenging form history to win this race. Plenty of interest after first-up win at Sandown at first start in Australia, and then right in the three way finish in the Derby Preview. Dropped out at Caulfield when something definitely not right, he goes better than that and had been equal to them previously. Blinkers on. Likely to drop back here, and coming off a poor run, and already not much between many of these so that’s enough to prefer others in this. No
12-MATSUDA is another in his first preparation and showed a good kick leading at Sandown before getting badly hampered interference in the Derby Preview. Absolutely smashed them at Sale on a track that was favouring those on-speed, and then fought on well on-speed in the Geelong Classic bunched finish. Didn’t seem that strong at the end of his race there and poor outside barrier draw for a horse that likes to go forward. Likely to add to the speed up front, but can’t see him being a factor here on form. No
13-ONE STEP CLOSER is coming off Sydney form that is only fair and plugged away OK in the MV Vase but hard to see him beating home the top three from that race who are all going around here. Inside barrier and may drift back in the field here and prefer others. No
14-SAVISANTA is one we have been following and he is coming along nicely. First preparation and only 4 starts are question marks, but he hit the line really well at Sale behind the (12) and then struggled to get out and into clear running in the Geelong Classic where he was hitting the line hard and his was definitely the best run from that race. Looks a strong staying type and well-drawn. Question is if he is seasoned enough for this race, but he may get a very soft run here from an inside barrier and looks like he will stay so ranks clearly as the best roughie here. Rough.
15-MCWOODY is coming into this race with only two career starts so would be looking to re-write the history books in a big way. Burst through on the inside to win maiden and then right in the bunched finished in the Caulfield Classic when stepping up dramatically in class in a pretty good run. Wide draw isn’t going to help and faces a major challenge here. No
16-DEAL DONE FAST is another maiden coming into this off only 3 career starts. Chased hard in the Derby Preview and then right in the finish in the Caulfield Classic, but question is going to be if that is the right form. Barrier 1 and will drop back in the field here and probably stick on OK, but another who may be better next preparation. No
17-ARABIAN PRINCE (emerg) is a maiden with only the three career starts, but his run was probably the best from the Super Impose when he was making really good ground late first-up from a break. The sit-sprint tempo simply didn’t suit in the Caulfield Classic, he was last and trying to run into the race but they simply hadn’t gone fast enough. He looks to have a heap of staying potential, but wide barrier, will have to drop well back here and not quite sure he is ready for this. Definitely one to follow next preparation though. Passing. SCRATCHED
18-FREDDIE BASSET (emerg) is a maiden who was being safely held in Sydney lead-in races before plugging on OK when well held in the Geelong Classic. Second emergency and unlikely to make the field, but not going well enough to be a factor here. No SCRATCHED
19-CRACK A DEAL (emerg) was tough winning a 2000M maiden at Warrnambool and not far off them at Sandown before that. Well held in the MV Vase and unlikely to be able to beat home those who finished in front of him there today. Also unlikely to get into the field which makes winning extremely difficult. No. SCRATCHED
20-SUPER PARADISE (emerg) is the fourth emergency and not only $250 to win this race, probably about $250 to even get into the field. Severely checked in Derby Preview, and badly held up in the Super Impose so hasn’t had the best of luck this time in and he is actually going better than the form suggests. No hope trying to come from last and wide against racing pattern in the Geelong Classic. Wide barrier here and likely to drop back and not going well enough, probably not bad as a super exotic roughie on the off chance he gets into the field here. If he missed a start today and went around in the 3YO 1800M during the week he is a good chance. No SCRATCHED
Summary:
This year’s Victorian Derby looks to have very few winning chances and a long tail of others, most of whom can quite easily pop up for a place at long odds and wreck your trifecta, and a bit hard to know which one that is going to be. The 1-OBSERVER is definitely the one to beat, has the right form, has the racing versatility to settle handy and gets every chance and only danger is being outstayed if this turns into a tough 2500M slog (which is rare, but not impossible). Probably not much between the two Sydney horses behind him in the MV Vase and good chance that form will stack up and they may even run the trifecta again here. Actually going to put the 9-O’SHEAMUS in as the main danger though as think his run was just as good last week, he is well drawn and like the way he chases to the line. The 6-PROVIDENCE the other winning chance just a bit wary of how far back he settles here in a big field. Of the other form lines the one we are most interested in is the 4-MIEWA from a good barrier and we are going to elevate him into third selection just for the value and to be a bit different from some boring selections. Think these four a really the only winning chances here. The best roughie is the 14-SAVISANTA who will get a great run here behind the speed from an inside barrier and the 2-HIGHVOL rolling on speed to place. Keen to bet, but it may be in the form of exotics around these with a short-price favourite who looks extremely hard to beat.
Race 1: 5-REGAL AWARD, 9-PANOVA, 4-CALL DA VINCI
Race 2: 5-LIVE, 9-TEINE AULELEI, 6-CHATTERLEY
Race 3: 4-STAR PATROL, 6-AMEENA, 12-SUPARAZI
Race 4: 1-GETTA GOOD FEELING, 3-FREEDOM FLAME, 2-ETHEREUM GIRL
Race 5: 12-ENXUTO, 6-WARNIE, 1-STEPARTY
Race 6: 3-TENTYRIS, 5-SKYHOOK, 10-BEADMAN
Race 7: 1-OBSERVER, 9-O’SHEAMUS, 4-MIEWA
Race 8: 3-ABOUNDING, 6-LEICA LUCY, 10-IDLE FLYER
Race 9: 5-STRETAN ANGEL, 14-FLYING FOR FUN, 3-SHE’S BULLETPROOF
