Tips, suggested bets and feature race preview for Derby Day at Flemington 31/10/2026.
Mild weather midweek, but there is proper rain forecast for Saturday so again we need to play the Watch The Radar game and try and work out when the rain is going to come through and how much there will be. Track raced evenly last week for the Cox Plate, there was a bit of give in the track and it was on-pace early, but tended towards those running on later in the day. Suspect we probably get the same racing pattern here, especially if the rain comes during the program. Down the straight inside was the place to be last week and inside to middle may be the best ground again today. No watering Friday night and looks like rain is coming in the morning and during the early part of the meeting, so we may get a downgrade but nothing substantial. In fact, as we post there has been no rain at all, and the showers are just starting but nothing too heavy.
For those watching closely we have barely tipped a winner on top for five meetings now and we are hitting Worst Episode Ever statistics this spring – and trying to turn that around during Cup Week is going to be challenging to say the least. Thanks for everyone who is still staying loyal and clapping their hands to say they believe. You can post your clapping hands emoji in the comments below.
We have chunky Derby Day program with some wide open fields with lots of chances, and we think the market has gone way too narrow on a quite a few races today – there is a lot more depth to some of these races than the market reflects. We can even see quite a few $50+ runners who are sneaky chances. Looks likely we will get a lot of Sydney winners today too. Great to have a few big fields down the straight, even if they are darn near impossible to find a winner in. Derby Day is all about tradition and it is traditional to double the Betting Portfolio to $100 and we will mix up the bets a bit today with the wide open fields.
Melbourne Cup preview will be posted Monday afternoon with full tips and suggested bets Tuesday morning. Derby Day feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 6-GLENORCHY $5 EW
This race is just about always won by a horse down from Sydney, the stats from the last 20 years are quite astounding. There is a stack of potential in this field with lots of horses coming off nice wins in lower grade, this one is still a maiden, but he did put in some good runs at a higher level over the QLD winter. First-up run was excellent and not much between him and the (10) there. Well drawn and hope they will go forward early here and take up a good position and he looks a nice each way bet at around $10 in an open field. We are also going to have a second bet below on the roughie 12-TUZEMAK in this race.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 13-SATONO GLOW $7 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 13-SATONO GLOW#2,7,11 x $6 = 200%
There is a lot of talent in the 3YO feature sprint, but we actually want to look away from some of the main chances. The win of this one last start in Sydney was huge, the leader had kicked clear and she chased him down and sailed past to win impressively. Proven down the straight and in fact unbeaten in two runs down the Flemington straight. Not fussed about being drawn closer to the inside and not convinced there will be much difference today down the straight. Back each way at around $5 and anchor in a quinella with some value chances away from the favourites with the 2-PARADOXIUM who over raced in the lead last start, is proven down the straight, won a nice jump out here during the week and may lead without too much pressure here at odds, the 7-UNDER FOCUS who has been going well in Sydney and the 11-DOUBT TIME third-up and fitter and drawn wide if they are winning flashing home late out wide.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 10-HUGHES $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 5: 2,9,10,17 boxed x $6 = 100%
This one was great first-up last start at Caulfield where he dropped back to last and weaved through the field late to be in the finish, against a leader’s track pattern. Meets the (2) much better on weights (+4kgs) from that race as well. Possible dry track now is a big plus for this one, excellent distance stats and maybe he just needs to settle a bit more forward today from a good barrier. Looks a good each way bet at around $11 and anchor in a quinella with the classy 2-PRIVATE EYE on-speed, the 9-CAFÉ MILLENIUM who seems to have been forgotten here and comes right into this if we end up on a dry track, and a roughie leading in the 17-SCHEELITE who now gets into the field as an emergency.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 6-VALLICE $7 EW
Happy to have a decent bet on our top pick in the Derby, he ticks so many of the traditional form line boxes with form through the right races, and like that he has had five starts this time in and a longer preparation than many of these to get ready for a tough 2500M contest. Led last start and kicked well, but he is much better ridden with some cover and he has a turn of foot to run into this race at the right time and be in the finish. Each way at around $13 in a very even field with plenty of chances.
RUNNING DOUBLE Races 3,4: 3,5,6,11 / 2,7,11,19,20 x $20 = 100%
Spending more this week allows us to have a cheeky wide running double in two of the earlier races where we think the favourites are far too short and there is a good chance of a value winner, In Race 3 the 5-YOUR COLOUR and 11-THARWA were both great last start at Caulfield, but they will need good rides today from outside barriers, the 3-DE ARMAS will get a good run from a good barrier, and watch out for the 6-CHURCHILL ROSE well drawn and on-speed over from Adelaide at odds. In Race 4, outside the two main chances 20-HANKEE ALPHA, 2-NAPOLEONIC there are some great roughies in the 11-DE BERGERAC who loves the straight, the mega roughie 19-VERDOUX at $70 who is ready to do something today on a dry track and we may kick ourselves for not putting into the tips, and the 7-DISNECK who wants a dry track.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 12-TUZEMAK $2 EW
Plenty of talent in the first race coming off impressive lower grade wins, and it is always hard to line up which one is the best. But this one also did win quite impressively last start under a hold, is well drawn and can race handy and give himself every chance, and he may run a race at $60 today as the no-namer against a field with heavy spruiks on them. Rough.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 8-AUTUMN LOVER $2.50 EW
We have been following this one all spring and she has been scratched a few times and she hasn’t had the smoothest preparation, but her last two runs have been excellent. Loomed into the finish out wide here two starts ago from the back of the field and looked the winner, but the inside was better going that day, and then in restricted room weaving through the field last start when not beaten far. Drawn wide and will drop back, but she will be coming home hard here out wide at around $20.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 17-NEPO BABY $3 EW
Happy to give this Sydney sprinter a go in an open field down the straight in the last race. Drawn wide and will go forward and at least get a clear run whilst the others are jockeying to get to whatever the best going may be. Fitter for the two runs in and she was really good leading last start when the pack only just got to her late. Rough at around $20.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 10-THE ROARING SUN at around $5
Massive spruik on this one to be starting well in the market as a maiden into a Group 3 race and he may go on with it, but likely to drop well back and plenty here coming off impressive wins in a competitive race so happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a buying a member’s guest pass for Cup Week (seeing just about everyone in racing facebook groups is asking for one).
TRIFECTA: Race 7: 1,6 / 1,6,8,9,13 / 1,6,7,8,9,13,15 x $5 = 12.5%
Wide open Derby so the trifecta should pay OK with the main chances the 6-VALLICE, 1-CORMIER to win and need a roughie to place like the 13-RUSSIAN ROCK or the 15-KING WINSTON to blow up the dividend.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 1,2,11,12,13 / 1,6,9 / 1,3 / 3,4,10,11,15,17 x $20 = 11.11%
Good chance of a decent quaddie today with a wide open feature, but stick to the main three chances there and the favourites are always hard to beat in the Empire Rose third leg, which leaves us the option of going nice and wide into last race down the straight.
Feature Race Preview: VICTORIA DERBY 2500M 3YO GROUP 1
The Victoria Derby has been run for 170 years and the race is older than the Melbourne Cup, but for the last ten years we have had the debate about reducing the distance – yet we still get a capacity field every year regardless and no-one ever talks about reducing the distance of the Oaks for the fillies a few days later.
The best thing about these traditional races is doing the traditional form – no horse has won the Derby with fewer than 5 starts in the last 25 years, but almost half this field is coming into this race off 4 starts or fewer and normally the winner has had more than one preparation. We don’t know how many horses with less than 5 starts have tried to win, but their strike rate is currently zero.
The key lead-up races are always the Caulfield Classic (Norman Robinson) (7 winners since 2000) and the MV Vase (11 winners), with three winners coming through the Spring Champion and only two through the Geelong Classic which is normally a dreadful form reference for this race. It is usually the winners or placegetters through these races that go onto win the Derby and often it is just a case of picking the best run from each of the lead-up races. Complicating matters this year is the extremely even finishes in those lead-up races and so many horses being on 4 starts coming into this, so the weight of numbers is definitely in favour of that form line being broken this year. Assuming we will be on a slightly rain affected track by the end of the day.
The speed here looks quite genuine for a Derby, the 1-CORMIER is well drawn and will go forward, but more likely the filly 16-QUICK FINISH will want to lead so they will be able to take a sit on the (1). The 7-SKUA will also push forward to join these two from a wide barrier, the 4-KING SNITZ will settle just off the speed with the 8-CIGNETTI and the 9-ICY YOU will be sitting just off these. So we have a few who can take up the speed here and it should ensure a genuine tempo and a strong staying contest, and with wear on the track and some rain suspect they will be winning down the middle of the track.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-CORMIER brings the much needed Sydney form line to a pretty even bunch of local 3YOs and he has had two preparations and 7 starts to get him seasoned enough to stay out the 2500M today. Right in the winter 2YO classics over a mile, and he has led and fought on really well his last two starts, they only got to him the last 50M two starts back, and last start the favourite did have to work to get past him in the lead. Will lead or sit handy, drawn a good barrier and should present here at the right time. Would prefer if he could dictate in the lead, think he would be really hard to run down but think a few others will challenge here. Right in this, he handled wet tracks as a 2YO if the rains comes, just he may not be in the best ground if they start coming off the rails in the straight later in the day. Going well, strong Sydney form and new form line against these – actually surprised he is not shorter here, but guess he hasn’t been winning. Strong chance
2-STORMY MARCO is the other Sydney visitor with very similar form to the (1), except he tends to settle back in the field and finish on strongly. He has run on really well the last two start, both times as the widest runner and hitting the line strongest, but they were a 4th and a 5th. Drawn very wide here and likely to drop back in a big field, but he should handle any give in the ground. Not sure what to do with this one, his runs have been promising but think as second favourite he should have won one of his lead up runs and not sure if he is just teasing, and he may just run on well late again for 4th or 5th. Prefer place.
3-TRUE REBEL ticks the box of the MV Vase winner, but he does have only the four career starts and he is in his first preparation. Really strong finish at Caulfield when he just failed to nab the leader and the MV Vase was run at a solid staying tempo and he got the perfect trail in the race and to be honest thought he struggled to get past the (7) there who fought on well. Can drop back in his races and barrier 17 is going to be a major issue here and he may end up at the back of the field. Thought he was entitled to win easier the way he loomed up last start. Question mark is running out a strong 2500M staying contest dropping back and when he had to really work to win last start. Has to go in as a chance coming off the traditional form line win, but not one we are going to push for this year. Chance, with reservations.
4-KING SNITZ is another still in his first preparation and off only four career starts, but ticks the box of the Caulfield Classic winner. Nice staying win at Warrnambool and he was part of the three way finish at Caulfield on an on-speed day where the first three in the run fought out the finish and he was lucky to just get the bob in on the line. Well drawn and he will race handy and get every chance, there was not much between them last start and not sure that is the strongest form line. Another who goes in as a chance at the traditional form line winner, but not one we want to push for either. Chance.
5-MURSHIDI is the Maher stable runner and the way they are going the traditional rules probably don’t apply to them anyway. Building nicely as a stayer, chased hard behind a smart winner two starts back at Geelong and then won his maiden in the Geelong Classic in a pretty strong staying performance – and worth noting he started well in the market there so the stable obviously have a high opinion of this one. Drawn very wide is a major issue and likely to drop well back in this. Looks a really strong staying type and the stable can do just about anything, but wide barrier, drop back horse and Geelong Classic form probably pushes him down to just a place chance here. Place.
6-VALLICE has had two preparations and seven career starts which is a massive relief and has been building nicely towards this race this spring. Fought on well here two starts back on a messy heavy track and that was a solid staying contest in tough conditions and he just kept plugging away, and then he went to the lead in the Caulfield Classic on a leaders track and only just missed the bob. Unlikely to lead today and drawn wide they will probably look to just settle middle of the field and run on down the middle of the track. He has a nice turn of foot and that can be important in this race. Will handle it wet if more rain comes. He looks like a true stayer and really liked that Flemington run two starts ago so goes in as a major player here. Strong chance.
7-SKUA is coming into this off two preparations and six career starts and he looks a really solid staying type. He has ran in both the Caulfield Classic and the MV Vase so he should be hard fit for this, his Caulfield Classic run was actually pretty disappointing as he settled on speed and dropped out, whilst the others racing on-speed fought out the race. Much better performance in the MV Vase when he led and gave a great kick and the winner really had to work to get past him there. Soft track form looks good. Drawn wide but likely leader or on-speed here and jockey Allen would be up for a tough staying contest. Has to go in as a major chance off a good MV Vase run. Chance.
8-CIGNETTI has been racing really consistently this time in and he has been in the finish every time, and often not having the best of luck. Didn’t take the lead 2nd up at Sandown when he was badly held up for runs and flashed home late, plugged away well here on the heavy track two starts back, and perfect on-speed sit and lobbed into the finish in the Norman Robinson. Drawn wide and likely to go forward here and help set the speed. Wet track no issues. Ticks the box of placegetter in a traditional lead-up so has to be a factor and should be around the finish here, but prefer a few others from those lead-up races so prefer place. Place.
9-ICY YOU is one we have been following all spring and he has always looked like a long, rangey staying type. Leader dictated the race at Caulfield three starts back and he was finishing on well and just needed a more solid tempo, kept whacking away on the heavy ground at Flemington and really like the Geelong Classic run. He was leading on the turn there, multiple challengers came at him and he kept finding and coming back and he was still there fighting out the finish – it was a super tough effort. He is the one horse in this field that looks like he is really looking for Flemington and the 2500M. Well drawn, can race handy and he will present and just keep staying the length of the straight. Geelong Classic form often isn’t the best guide for this race, but they are an even bunch this year and that makes him a genuine chance in this. Genuine chance.
10-TRUE TONE has been quite competitive this preparation and he has gone around at $1.30, $2.80 and $2.60 last three starts, and even though he only won one of those races the stable must have some opinion of him. Solid favourite in the Geelong Classic and he loomed up nicely into the race there with the perfect run, but to be honest thought the first two home there just outstayed him to the line, though he wasn’t beaten that far and had to be eased on the line. Drawn wide and likely to drop back here and probably prefer the first two home from the lead-up race over this one so risking today. Passing.
11-HIERARCHY is still in his first racing preparation and he has only had the four career starts but he is showing plenty of promise and he has frustrated us no-end as we have tipped and backed him the last two starts. Nice turn of foot to win his maiden and then ridden quite conservatively at Caulfield behind an all the way winner when he was hitting the line really well (and was even stronger after the line). Given no hope last start in the MV Vase when snagged back to last from the outside barrier, and lost touch with the front half of the field and he pulled out and ran on really nicely, settling mid-field he would have been right in the finish there. Well drawn here and they will settle more handy today and he has a really nice turn of foot if he is within striking distance – he could easily settle handy and sprint clear here early in the straight. Not ticking the traditional form lines, but really liked that last run and we can’t drop off today having backed him last two starts because he will sting us. Strong chance. Thanks goodness he is SCRATCHED, saves us trying to work out what to do with him. SCRATCHED
12-WRITTEN EMPIRE is coming into this off four starts and one preparation and he has been thereabouts in the lead-up races, but he has also been well held by several going around here. Professional type who likes to jump and settle on-speed, but that also means he has had every chance in his lead up runs and has only just whacked away. Well drawn and he will be part of the speed here, but hard to see him improving enough to be a factor here. Passing.
13-RUSSIAN ROCK was well backed to start favourite in the Caulfield Classic and he really was never going to win there given the racing pattern where three on-speed horses fought out the finish - but actually thought he worked to the line pretty well considering. Was an eye-catching run the start before where he slid out behind runners and hit the line really well. Only the four career starts and comes into a race where he is up against three others who beat him home easily last start. Well drawn and he will get a good run here, but just suspect he is going to be better next preparation and this may be coming up a bit too early. Have to say though he does seem over the odds at $35 considering how well backed he was last start with excuses due to the racing pattern. Rough chance only.
14-COLD SHOWER is jumping into this Group 1 staying contest off only 3 career starts and faces a pretty massive challenge. Has come to form quickly over staying distances and was a solid staying win in the maiden at Geelong. Struggled to keep up when they went for home early in the Geelong Classic and he was going backwards on the line, so hard to get enthused about his chances going into an even harder contest. No.
15-KING WINSTON is a maiden who was well held two starts back at Geelong in what is looking a strong form race (but he was beaten close to 10 lengths there), and then he actually whacked away pretty well in the MV Vase and was slowly making ground to the line in a race where they all seemed to go up and down in the one spot for most of the straight. Did start long odds last start but it was a decent effort and well-drawn here to just do nothing and whack away again. Unlikely to be in the finish as such but no reason why he can’t lob into a well beaten placing at odds if you are taking a wide trifecta. Rough place.
16-QUICK FINISH comes into this with winning form and she has won 3 of 4 career starts, which is a pretty nifty strike rate. Filly challenging the boys in the Derby is not something you see very often. Dictated the speed in a small field to win at Caulfield two starts back and then she was strongly advantaged by a leaders pattern last start at Caulfield, but it was strong win none the less. That 2000M 3YO fillies race on Caulfield Cup day often isn’t the strongest form race for the Oaks, yet alone for the Derby. Will go forward here and likely leader and it’s pretty hard to win the Derby leading all the way, but it would be amusing for those challenging the quality of the Derby field for 16 males to chase one female all the way around. Prefer to risk as she faces a lot of challenges here. No.
17-MEET THE PRINCE (emerg) will get into the field now with a scratching. Maiden runner coming through Coleraine and Manangatang form lines, which have never been the strongest guide to the Derby (apparently). Went for home early on the turn last start and he showed a good kick to race clear and hard to believe he got run down there when watching the replay. Inside barrier in a big field may not be an issue considering the turn of foot he showed last start, but stepping up in class definitely a major obstacle here. No.
18-LOCKED IN (emerg) has had only the four career starts and he is still a maiden – in fact he has never even placed in a race. Ran on OK two starts back when laying in and racing ungenerously but he was still well held and then faced a task dropping out to last in the Geelong Classic when he did try and loop the field and run into the race, but faced too big a challenge. Not going well enough for this. No.
Summary:
Great form race to sit down and go through the form on, and let’s try and identify the best runs from each of the lead-up races. We think the 6-VALLICE was the best run from the Caulfield Classic, led against normal racing pattern and was kicking again on the line, actually think the 7-SKUA was the best run out of the MV Vase and showed some fight on-speed, the 9-ICY YOU the best run from the Geelong Classic fending off multiple challenges and the best Sydney form is with the 1-CORMIER.
Assuming we are going to have had some rain by this race and the track will have some give and they will be coming off the rails we are going to put the 6-VALLICE on top here, he will be ridden further back today and be the one getting to the middle of the track with a nice turn of foot, and really like the way he fought out the finish here on the heavy track on Turnbull Stakes day. Main danger is definitely the 1-CORMIER have really liked those last two runs in Sydney and looks like he will be able to take a sit today and he is the new form line against an even Melbourne bunch. As much as we despise the Geelong Classic form lines the 9-ICY YOU has been building perfectly for the Flemington 2500M. Best rough is the 13-RUSSIAN ROCK who has gone from well backed to totally forgotten in under two weeks. Plenty of value here and keen to have an each way bet on the top pick at double figure odds.
Race 1: 6-GLENORCHY, 2-UNHINGED, 12-TUZEMAK
Race 2: 4-PIN UP SHEILA, 1-REGAL AMBITION, 8-AUTUMN LOVER
Race 3: 5-YOUR COLOUR, 6-CHURCHILL ROSE, 3-DE ARMAS
Race 4: 20-HANKEE ALPHA, 2-NAPOLEONIC, 11-DE BERGERAC
Race 5: 10-HUGHES, 2-PRIVATE EYE, 9-CAFÉ MILLENIUM
Race 6: 13-SATONO GLOW, 2-PARADOXIUM, 11-DOUBT TIME
Race 7: 6-VALLICE, 1-CORMIER, 9-ICY YOU
Race 8: 3-SURFIN’ BIRD, 1-LADY SHENANDOAH, 8-SALTY PEARL
Race 9: 3-INKARUNA, 17-NEPO BABY, 10-BRIDAL WALTZ
