Despite the cold and miserable weather this track is just a GOOD(4) and may even firm up with lots of wind around. Rail goes back to TRUE here, we had yet another leaders’ track with the rail OUT 4M here last meeting, but with a bit of wind around probably will be a plus to get cover in the run and loop around them on the turn. Standard MV meetings with some small fields and lots of short priced favourites, so not a huge amount of value around today and mainly relying on some quinellas to get a decent collect.
Reminder that at the moment for Spring Campaign 2023 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 11-FEARENTLESS $4 EW
Race 3: QUINELLA 11-FEARENTLESS#4,5,13,15 x $2
Racing consistently without winning and has been up for a while, but last start at Sandown was really good when in the worse going along the inside and burst through to hit the lead before being swamped out wide but wasn’t beaten very far at all. Probably would prefer a track with a bit more give, but gets in nicely here with an apprentice claim and gets a solid 5kgs or so against the more favoured runners up in the weights. Should be able to position nicely on-speed from a good barrier and give you a good each way run at around $10. Looks a good value anchor quinella with the favourite the 4-MAGNASPIN, the consistent 5-SUPERSTOCK, and the fit on pace 13-ROCKEBY ROAD and have to throw in the 15-HAVISHAM who ran well for us at long, long odds here last time.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 7-RIGHT TO PARTY $5 EW
Race 6: QUINELLA 7-RIGHT TO PARTY#1,8 x $3 = 150%
This one was beaten by the wide barrier last time, had to drop back and was hitting the line with a lot of gusto. Much better draw today and should be able to settle handy and within striking distance and keen to have something each way at around $8 and this is our main bet of the day. Take a confident quinella with the classy 1-CHARM STONE and the likely leader the 8-OZ EMPRESS who gave a good kick last time here.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 15-DENY KNOWLEDGE $5 EW
Race 9: QUINELLA: 15-DENY KNOWLEDGE#4,6,11,13 x $4 = 100%
Keen to follow this one this spring and she just loves to jump and run and get the impression she is actually on the improve. Hoping they don’t try and up-end her racing pattern today, as even though there is some other speed in the race think she can burn them off here and keep going. Super tough and has race fitness over these so good chance of winning again at around $10. Looks a good value quinella with the roughie on-speed 4-SAVATOXL, the favourite 11-GLOBE up in class, the 13-ATTRITION who should get the run of the race and the tough 6-POUNDING who will appreciate the genuine speed on.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 4-ACROMANTULA $2 EW
Up against the mighty 1-GIGA KICK who is obviously going to be very hard to beat, but the favourite is over 1000M which is probably short of his best and worth noting he was beaten over 1000M first up last time in when just made his run a little late. So worth considering the fit, in-form roughie here at around $14 who should jump and lead and is a proven 1000M specialist with 8 wins so is capable of pinching this race with the right tempo.
BEST ROUGH: Race 10: 2-ULYSSES $2 EW
This one has had excuses last two runs, wide in a leader dominated race at Flemington where nothing made ground, and back on inside in worse going last start at Caulfield when wasn’t beaten far. Sensational finishing burst to win 1st up this time in. Drawn wide here but they should be able to go forward and take a position, has race fitness over many of these and is going better than the form guide suggests. In a very open race prefer to back something at value, so good roughie at around $17.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 10: 10-HENNESSY LAD at around $3.20
Last start winner here and usually pretty consistent, but just thought last start he had the absolute run of the race and wasn’t that convincing. Drawn to get a good run again and likely to settle handy, but think he is poor value in a pretty open field and prefer to back something at odds.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a Moonee Valley Apartment
FIRST FOUR: Race 6: 7, 8 / 7,8 / 1,2,3,10 / Field x $5 = 8.9 %
Very little value around today, not even really a Poor Man’s Quaddie for the taking with so many less than 8 runner fields. We are pretty confident the 7-RIGHT TO PARTY, 8-OZ EMPRESS will both be in the finish in Race 6, so let’s try for a confident First Four which blows out if the favourite doesn’t run top three.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 1,7,11,13 / 1,4 / 6,11,13,15 / 2,6,7,9,13 x $20 = 12.5%
Probably not going to be a huge quaddie today, but go wide in the first leg and probably worth throwing in one or two more at odds and then take only the favourite 1-GIGA KICK and the roughie 4-ACROMANTULA in the second leg. Plenty of good value chances in the feature race and basically you want to come home wide as possible in the last leg which is a wide open race that anything could win.
Feature Race Preview:
We have a capacity field for the Feehan Stakes and this race can sometimes get very messy with a big field and slow tempo around MV and throw up some surprise results. Thankfully this year we have a clear leader in the 15-DENY KNOWLEDGE , with the 4-SAVATOXL also pushing forward and the 1-TUVALU, 11-GLOBE and 10-GOLDMAN all likely to settle forward. The rest of the field are basically backmarkers and would be cautious about backing any that drop back and are drawn inside as suspect they will find trouble in the run. Of course this is WFA race without any real top line WFA horses who would have an advantage under this weight scale.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-TUVALU is probably more of a handicapper, but isn’t out of place carrying level weights against these. First run back from an lung infection lay off in the Lawrence was excellent and worked to the line really well out wide. Excellent 1600M stats placed 6/7 and can probably lob just behind the speed here in clear running outside runners and no issue with the dry track. Maybe might just need one more run up in distance back from a lay-off but has to be respected as a strong winning chance.
2-EL BODEGON overstayed his travel visa after last year’s Cox Plate and really didn’t fire over Autumn in Sydney. Little market support that day and even though the increase in distance is a plus, the dry ground looks to be a query and prefer to wait till he is back in form.
3-FRANCESCO GUARDI is a stayer with spring promise who was even first-up and probably needs a run or two and some distance before showing form. Likely to drop well back here and give these a big, big start.
4-SAVATOXL is a super tough leader and interesting they are going back to the mile here for the original stable as McEvoy stable had turned him into a formidable feature race sprinter. Stuck on really well last start in Adelaide over 1400M and much better on firm ground like today. Is up to WFA but has been carrying weight in his lead up runs. Actually has the best Group and Listed record of any horse in this race, so suited at WFA, question is can he be competitive at WFA over 1600M? Wide barrier does mean he will need to work early, and suspect the (15) goes to the lead here and runs them along and turns it into a tough mile which might expose this one. Without the (15) in the race would rate him a chance though and be wary if he does find the front and is left alone. Think the $67 is the wrong odds here for one that will be up on the speed, and a good rough chance.
5-KING MAGNUS has contested a lot of feature miles, but only has the one win over the 1600M. Worked home well here last start behind the (15) and that’s a plus as race will probably be run to a similar pattern. Drawn wide here and probably drops well back, and probably prefers a bit more give in the ground so rough chance only.
6-POUNDING is an extremely consistent type and good run well at this level last start when worked home well. Excellent 1600M stats and can settle just off the leading group in this from a good barrier and dry track is a big, big bonus. Suspect a fast speed will suit this one and he seems to be one on the improve so think he is a genuine chance in this.
7-PINSTRIPED is another who ran home really well last start and drop back type who sometimes does need luck in the run. Drawn out is probably a plus as he will need to make a run around runners. Really only beaten by best horse in the land at the moment last start, but suspect there probably isn’t much between the (1) and (6) and the (13) and this one who all finished close together last start so maybe just pick one out of those as a winning chance.
8-FORGOT YOU has been an extremely frustrating horse to follow, but ran best race in a while 1st up last start at Caulfield. Worth noting unbeaten 3 from 3 this track, in fact all this career wins have been here. He does need some give in the ground though so firm track against today and suspect he gets well back here and gives these a long start drawn inside and will need a lot of luck.
9-ALASKAN GOD is a drop back WA stayer and the gloss seems to have gone off the WA horses last few seasons, after they had a hot run. Fitter for the two runs in and made good ground last start, and likely to give them a start again here. Unlikely to win, but probably an OK rough place chance for a wide exotic, especially if this is a fast run 1600M which suspect it will be.
10-GOLDMAN is a lightly raced Waterhouse horse with a big spruik for spring majors. Think the major item to note here is that he is already qualified for the Melbourne Cup after Roy Higgins win in March. Had a few trials coming in, but being qualified they can aim specifically for that race and not have to worry about winning lead-up events early in the Spring. Does like to race forward, but plenty of speed here and likely to take a sit and doubt they will want a gut buster first-up. Like to run well and be one to watch later in the spring.
11-GLOBE is another with a huge spruik on him and career wins to date have been super impressive. Unbeaten 4 form 4 and has led all the way in each of those starts, but doubt they will want to lead today from a wide barrier with plenty of speed on and one drawn outside probably presses forward. This is a big step up in class and is also a high pressure race with plenty of speed so is going to be a decent test as to what level he is capable of. He did have a tendency to do plenty wrong in his previous starts, laying out and drifting off the track, so first time around MV that is a little concern and think they will want him to settle just off-speed today. Definite wining chance, just not sure we want to back him at short odds today.
12-VIRTUOUS CIRCLE is a strong finishing staying type who has run some fantastic races here, but dropping well back, 1st up, from an inside barrier in a big field is going to make for an almost impossible task.
13-ATTRITION is a smart miler who ran into the race well last start, but so did quite a few others going around here. Drawn well to sit off these and loop into the race which should be the pattern and does look to get the perfect run into the race here. Should have plenty of improvement to come and strong winning chance.
14-LUNAR FLARE is a stayer doing warm up laps who generally needs a few runs to find form and barrier (1) will be no help.
15-DENY KNOWLEDGE might be a pretty good horse on the way up. Did strike a leaders track here last start but won with ease and well known she is tough as and keeps charging after the line and is hard to pull up. The win at Geelong on Good Friday was super impressive even in weaker class and you just get the impression she had gone up a level last few runs. Drawn to lead clearly here and doubt they will want to take her on, ridden out to a clear aggressive lead she will be hard to beat. Eyes are on the Caulfield Cup and keen to follow her this spring, she might be more forward than many of her rivals here and if they get a clear lead think she is clearly the one to beat.
Summary:
First part of the race will tell the story here, if the 15-DENY KNOWLEDGE burns away to a clear lead she is going to be very hard to beat, even if there isn’t a leader bias. A lot comes down to what they do with the 4-SAVATOXL from an outside barrier and if they pressure her up front, but suspecting they won’t want to get into a speed battle over 1600M with that one. So pretty keen to back the 15-DENY KNOWLEDGE who seems great value at $12 each way, from the 6-POUNDING who is going to be suited running on off a fast tempo and the 13-ATTRITION who will get the perfect run into the race. Totally wary of the class and potential of the favourite 11-GLOBE just don’t want to back him at the odds on offer today around MV for the first time. Best roughie is the sprinter 4-SAVATOXL who might stick on better than expected with race fitness. Confident each way bet on the top pick and anchor quinella with the other horses mentioned.
Race 1: 7-AUTUMN ANGEL, 4-DUAL PRESSURE, 3-FISTSOFFURY
Race 2: 11-THE CREATOR, 9-GALACTIC FURY, 10-FALCON OF MALTA
Race 3: 11-FEARENTLESS, 13-ROCKEBY ROAD, 5-SUPERSTOCK
Race 4: 2-SAVANNAH CLOUD, 5-RECOMMENDATION, 1-CORNER POCKET
Race 5: 5-SCENTIFY, 4-STEPARTY, 6-INTRODUCING
Race 6: 7-RIGHT TO PARTY, 8-OZ EMPRESS, 1-CHARM STONE
Race 7: 7-BERKELEY SQUARE, 11-FUTURE HISTORY, 13-BORN A KING
Race 8: 1-GIGA KICK, 4-ACROMANTULA, 3-ZOUSTYLE
Race 9: 15-DENY KNOWLEDGE, 6-POUNDING, 13-ATTRITION
Race 10: 13-REAL SENSATION, 2-ULYSSES, 9-AIN’TNODEELDUN
