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| FLEMINGTON : LIGHTNING STAKES - 19th February 2011 |
| Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: RAIN - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): Topsy turvy weather in Melbourne this week. Sunny, hot, sticky, cloudy, showers, rain, humid - never quite sure what it is going to be like the next time you dare to venture out of your high rise climate controlled office space. Track is currently a DEAD(5), but there is solid rain forecast for Friday night on Saturday, so a bit hard to guess exactly where we are going to end up. Let’s assume a genuine SLOW. With the rain good chance we are going to get a definite racing pattern – even with the rail back to the TRUE position here. Definitely don’t put your bets on early, watch the races and evaluate the pattern. The rain is supposed to move on by midday so the pattern will most likely remain for the majority of the day. Our suspicion is that the track might actually favour those running on down the middle of the track and that down the straight the middle will also be the place to be. Although this is a pretty tough program, lots of horses resuming, thought there seemed to be lots of value in big fields. Suspect we are going to get quite a few $10 - $20 winners and we are going to spread our bets around a fair bit. Have put quite a few value runners in the selections. Plenty to bet on today so doubling up and spreading out bets out with the chance of some decent value collects. RESULTS : Darn weather man led us into a dodgy forecast again - barely any rain and track is a firmish DEAD(4), rather than the expected SLOW. Tips bomb out rather badly. Track does seem to favour those running on, and definitely seemed that near the rails was not the place to be. Of course - pretty much every single horse we backed managed to find it's way there. Brilliant work. BEST BET : Race 4: 9-ABSOLUTELY $20 WIN X Been waiting for this one to reappear, only the 2 runs during the spring where showed a heap of promise and obviously is being taken along slowly. Strong finishing type, even though there isn’t a huge amount of speed in this as long as they are finishing on OK suspect she is going to finish over the top of them here. Looks a solid bet at around $5 and will get decent odds with a short priced Moody runner in the (8) starting a short priced favourite. RESULTS : Disappointing. BEST WIN : Race 1: 10-ANEVAY $15 WIN 1st W=$1.90 = 15 x 1.9 = $28.50 Not often that we bet in the 2YO races, but this one put in a huge performance 1st up when fought it out all the way down the straight with the smart ONE LAST DANCE, who won easily last week. They clearly beat the rest of the field in that race. Has a bit of speed, good chance she can just jump here, go to the lead and you can build your betting bank with a winner in the first. Quite keen. RESULTS : When we sent the mail out on Friday morning, this one was showing a tasty $3.80. Of course everyone else could see what we could and she jumped straight to the front and that was the end of that. Barely worth it for $1.90 though. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 3-HOLLOWLEA $5 EW X BOX QUINELLA : Race 5: 3-HOLLOWLEA, 8-ENJIN NUMBER NINE, 10-SPIRITED EAGLE x $5 = $15 The 3YO C+G race looks pretty open, there are a lot in this race who could rapidly improve and wouldn’t be surprised to see a value winner here. The (3) made a habit of winning during the Spring at nice odds and seems to be a bit under rated. Fitter for the 2 runs in, both have been full of merit where he has been just on the heels of the place getters and you would just think with improvement here he is going to be ready to do something today. Key to him is a bit of rain – he is definitely better on a rain affected tracks, so at around $16 look a good each way bet in this considering the weather forecast. Back him each way, and double up with a box quinella on the selections as suspect in a keen betting race the quinella will pay well. RESULTS : Rain doesn't come, drops back, does very little though and very disappointing. BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 13-KERT $5 WIN 4th W=$19.00 QUINELLA : Race 2: 13-KERT, 11-IRAZU x $5 QUINELLA : Race 2: 13-KERT, 9-KING DIAMOND x $5 9-KING DIAMOND 1st W=$3.20 QUINELLA : Race 2: 13-KERT, 15-ANUDJAWUN x $5 15-ANUDJAWUN 2nd W=$17.60 This one is a pretty honest trier who always seems to be whacking away hard coming to the line. Fitter for the 4 runs in, has been competitive every start this time in, placed 3 from 4 at Flem and at the bottom of the weights here. The $16 at the moment looks quite appealing, and again should be value in the quinellas. The (11) loves it wet, although doesn’t win that often put in a huge run 1st up at MV. The (9) has been going along well and will race on speed here in a race with not much pressure and the (15) is lightly raced with lots of upside to come. RESULTS : Darn it - we were a bit unlucky here. 13-KERT poked through to hit the lead about 100M out, hard to believe he didn't run a place, but he was on the inside which didn't seem the place to be. The other runners fight the race out at nice odds. BEST ROUGH Race 3: 17-VERDASCO $5 WIN, $10 PLACE X Utter mess of a race and just about anything could win this, with a capacity field going down the straight. At least this one is race fit, at the bottom of the weights (plus a claim), lightly raced, drawn out toward the middle which is probably going to be the better going. Finished on well over the Flem 1000M last start and looks like the 1200M today is going to suit. Nice each way bet. Maybe box up with some value runners in the trifecta if you are feeling brave cause probably going to be one of those races with a $5,000 + trifecta. RESULTS : On pacers dominated this race, probably worth giving this one another chance. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 3 : 6-WE’RE GONNA ROCK at around $3.80 SCR Boom spruik super star who has basically been incredibly disappointing. Set for feature miles over the spring and whilst he was competitive he is starting to string up a long list of convictions for being beaten at short odds. Worth noting his only wins still have been over 1000M, so maybe he is just better as a sprinter. Even so, he is one you are probably going to be better off laying rather than backing in the long term. Probably go OK fresh, may be better back to the sprint trip, but drawn barrier 1 here, in a capacity field, normally drops back - if they stick to the rails he should get clear just in time for an after race pat and hose down, if they come off the rails he is going to be stuck in the worse ground. Prefer to take on. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. BIG 6 : Races 3,4,5,6,7,8 : 4,9,10,12,17 / 9 / 3,8,10,13 / 7 / 1,5,11,12,13 / 3,8 x $5 = 2.5% X With a short priced favourite in the feature race always tempting to have a crack at the Big 6. Plan of attack is go one out on the best bet of the day in Race 4 (9), and the champion sprinter mare Race 6 (7). Go wide in the 1st leg to try and make sure we are up and running, lots of value in the 3rd leg, go wide in the 5th leg – and yes even include rank 100-1 outsider Race 7 (1) – might as well dream a little, and come home on two solid chances in the last race. RESULTS : Ummmm...BLACK CAVIAR won - do you get anything for getting one leg right? SPENT : $100 RETURN : $28.50 NET : $-71.50 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 10-ANEVAY, 11-ERVBEFEL, 1-REDANGELO Race 2: 13-KERT, 11-IRAZU, 9-KING DIAMOND Race 3: 17-VERDASCO, 9-I’M DISCREET, 4-AVIENUS Race 4: 9-ABSOLUTELY, 8-DO RA MI, 5-SOUTHERN SPEED Race 5: 3-HOLLOWLEA, 8-ENJIN NUMBER NINE, 10-SPIRITED EAGLE Race 6: 7-BLACK CAVIAR, 8-STIRLING GROVE, 1-HAY LIST Race 7: 13-IMPERIAL COMMAND, 5-BAROWN EXPRESS, 12-NIBLICK Race 8: 8-RUBINACCI, 3-THE WINGMAN, 12-ZEVADA |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-ANEVAY 1st W=$1.90 11-ERVBEFEL 1-REDANGELO |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-KERT 11-IRAZU 9-KING DIAMOND 1st W=$3.20 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 17-VERDASCO 9-I’M DISCREET 4-AVIENUS |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-ABSOLUTELY 8-DO RA MI 2nd W=$2.30 5-SOUTHERN SPEED 1st W=$3.50 Quinella : $2.80 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-HOLLOWLEA 8-ENJIN NUMBER NINE 10-SPIRITED EAGLE 3rd W=$9.60 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-BLACK CAVIAR 1st W=$1.30 8-STIRLING GROVE SCR 1-HAY LIST 2nd W=$4.90 Quinella : $1.80 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-IMPERIAL COMMAND 5-BAROWN EXPRESS 12-NIBLICK 2nd W=$4.00 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-RUBINACCI 2nd W=$9.40 3-THE WINGMAN 12-ZEVADA SCR |
| RACE 6: LIGHTNING STAKES 1000M GROUP 1 WFA |
| Tips: 7-BLACK CAVIAR 1st W=$1.30 8-STIRLING GROVE SCR 1-HAY LIST 2nd W=$4.90 Quinella : $1.80 |
| Others: 6 Pace: SOLID Leaders : 1-HAY LIST, 7-BLACK CAVIAR, 10-WARM LOVE Handy : 2-GRAND DUELS, 3-TRUE PERSUASION, 4-LEAPFROG, 6-KING PULSE, 8-STIRLING GROVE, 9-CRYSTAL LILY Back : 5-TOLLESPRIT Chances: 1-HAY LIST was initially the boom sprinter of the spring, who totally blew his opposition away in his 1st 3 runs/wins where he looked unbeatable. Was under a injury cloud for much of the 2nd half of spring and obviously pay to forget his flop down the straight on Stakes Day when he just wasn’t himself. Trainer is glowing in reports of his preparation, but then again trainers always are very glass full, to glass over flowing type people. Punter’s aren’t – punters are total cynics. Bah Humbug. He is the one horse in this field that did look like he could match it with the (7), and we haven’t seen them go head to head with this one in peak form. Unbeaten over 1000M. Handles it wet. Will jump and go forward and the wide barrier is important here - good chance wider out will be the best going and he can dictate what path he takes. Obvious chance. 2nd W=$4.90 6-KING PULSE is a lightly raced one coming back from a long spell after losing out badly in the snowball / hail fight the day of the Newmarket Ice Storm. “Severe laceration to its lower lip and multiple haematomas” – ouch. Was on a rapid upward spiral before that, only just nosed out in the Coolmore as a 3YO in a blanket finish. Bit of an unknown quantity. You would think after close to a full year off and some pretty decent injuries they would be going softly, softly on him to nurse him back – but also worth nothing he is the one in this field with the most upside. Maybe his encounter with the freak storm meant he inherited some mysterious Black Caviar defeating super powers ? Big plus here is that he can sit just off the speed, and put himself into the race at the right time. Suspect he is going to go pretty well – probably will still have lots of improvement to come, but maybe he is the one to anchor around if you are trying to get the trifecta multiples times with the favourite. Rough. 7-BLACK CAVIAR is the speed mare superstar. 8 starts. 8 wins. 8 x 1’s next to her name. More than a picket fence - that is starting to look like a cricket boundary. Unbeaten over the 1000M. Unbeaten 3 starts at Flem. They all do have to lose sometime though – so when will she ? Most likely it will happen on a biased track - worth noting she is yet to strike a genuine wet track yet. Or in a handicap , in a bigger field, when she has to give weight to her rivals. She has been expertly placed – and in a way the hype surrounding her makes her unbeaten status a self fulfilling prophecy – others are reluctant to take her on, so she ends up racing against small fields with less chance of striking trouble. She has yet to be really challenged in her races – and has pretty much always been able to dominate and control the race without any dramas. Sure a few times someone has gone hard early and tried to take her on, but come to the business end she has always been well clear and never had to ask for something special. Guess the only unanswered question is for her to win against the odds sometime, be held, up, be given a torrid run out wide, have a horse going neck and neck with her and have her pull something special out. She should win obviously – but is going to be ridiculously short. One to beat. 1st W=$1.30 8-STIRLING GROVE is coming along nicely with a good win/place strike rate and always worth watching the 3YOs with the weight pulls in these WFA sprint races. Solid win down the straight here on Cup Day and showed he could handle a wet track. Won 3/5 over the 1000M and although has been tried over longer , but looks like the sprints are his go. Very short priced beaten favourite in small field last start, but funny how often those sort come out the next start and go really well. Fit, in form, can sit off the speed, fair bit of upside so a bit to like about this one. Won’t be far away – rough chance. SCR Place: 2-GRAND DUELS is a solid sprinter in a purple patch of form, racking up the big 1-1-1 with 3 wins in good quality fields, and more importantly whilst lumping pretty big weights. Always showed a bit of ability, but amazingly seems to have gone up a level recently. He has always shown a liking for the straight course, the 1200M just seems to find him out down the straight, but the 1000M is right up his alley. Suited at WFA after giving so much weight to his rivals in handicaps. Placed 5/8 this track and distance. Amazing to think you are going to get $25 or so about a horse that has won his last 3 runs and just seems to be flying. Wet track is going to be an issue here – he is definitely one that prefers it dry. Probably won’t be far away though – never is. Solid place chance. 4th W=$21.50 Sacking: 3-TRUE PERSUASION is a honest trier who took on both the (1) and the (7) over the spring and was safely held. Put in some pretty decent runs, his Manikato run was excellent, and then was used up early to try and take on the (7) in the Schweppes and came of 2nd best, but still managed to stick on for a place. Interestingly never had a run over the 1000M. Best form is definitely at MV, so probably prefer to pass over him here at Flem, but he has placed 12/15 so again probably won’t be far away and might be value in this field. Passing. 4-LEAPFROG is a visitor from up North who is set a pretty tough task here. Drawn inside barrier (unlikely to be best going), meeting quality horses at equal weights WFA and last win was in restricted city class so this is a gigantic step. Just hoping he can really leap frog cause that would be kinda entertaining. No 5-TOLLESPRIT has a bit of ability but just doesn’t win as often as he should. Looks like he didn’t really come up during the spring, though did win 1st up over the Flem 1200M preparation before that. Needs a solid speed and to be running on over the top of them, and whilst the speed here will suit, you would think he will give something too much of a head start over the 1000M here. No 9-CRYSTAL LILY is another resuming off a long spell so hard to line up how forward she is. Took everything before her as a 2YO, somehow managed to just stay on the track long enough to win the Golden Slipper. Bubble burst a bit during the spring, but obviously she did have issues. Although she has won on a slow track worth noting the jockey blamed the conditions for her defeat 1st up at Caulfield during the spring. Does get the light weight of a 3YO filly at WFA. Watch the market on this one is the best guide, would probably just prefer to see her run though to see how her form holds up. Passing. 10-WARM LOVE is a smart on pace 3YO filly, who comes into this with race fitness, form and a weight pull so is worthy of consideration. Speedy on pace type, who has shown a liking for the 1000M and for Flem before, but you just wonder with all the pressure up front in this whether that is going to burst her tyres. Plus she seems to struggle on wet ground if the rain comes. Suspect she is going to come unstuck – and prefer to risk her today. Passing. 3rd W=$44.50 Summary: Small WFA sprint fields, you rarely get upsets and normally if there is a short priced favourite, it wins. There is always that doubt about how horses are going to go 1st up, plenty 1st up into this with lots of ability, all it would take is for one to go up a level and then we have race on. Obviously they are going to go pretty fast in this, with the two stand out sprinters tussling it on speed 1-HAY LIST, 7-BLACK CAVIAR, with poor 10-WARM LOVE trying to keep up. Suspect the (10) is going to come well and truly unstuck as a result. The value runners for the trifectas are going to be the runners sitting just behind the speed, especially if the (1) and (7) are ridden tactically mainly focussed on each other. Do honestly think that 1-HAY LIST is just about up to 7-BLACK CAVIAR at his best, and he is the one that is proven on a wet track if the rain comes. Hopefully he can regain his best form and we can see a genuine race here. So 7-BLACK CAVIAR obviously the one to beat. Value here might be the 8-STIRLING GROVE race fit, in form with upside who can sit on speed here. 1-HAY LIST the obvious danger. Maybe the plan of attack might be to get the trifecta / first four multiple times, anchoring the favourite and rotating the (8) through the placings with some of the longer odds runners – if the (1) missed a place you probably still get an OK dividend. One to risk: 10-WARM LOVE 3rd W=$44.50 Roughie: 6-KING PULSE The Key: How do you beat Black Caviar ? RESULTS : 7-BLACK CAVIAR jumps, settles, and pings - race over. Eased down the line. Incredibly impressive obviously. She has the "beat the small field at WFA caper" down pat - time now to take on some serious challenges. Like giving weight to a capacity field. Or giving the rest of the field 100M head start. Or hopping instead of galloping. Just want to see her out of her comfort zone and she if she can produce the same - in a handicap, over further. Streets ahead of her opposition at the moment though. |
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