Check out the best bonus betting offers that are available and stretch your punting dollar further.
- 20 % better odds
- back and lay a horse
- bet during the run
- pre post betting on all the Spring features. 




CAULFIELD : LISTON STAKES - 14th Aug 2010
Track: HEAVY(8) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 7M

Betting Portfolio ($50):
Been a wet old week in Melbourne town and been many a year since us old folk have seen that sort of rain. Not often that we get a Spring Carnival meeting on such a heavy track.

More showers forecast going into the weekend, little bit of wind, but been a few solid downpours this week so doubt the track will get much time to improve. So genuine heavy and look for race fit, wet trackers as solid bets. Last time they raced here 2 weeks back the rail was OUT 4M and on pacers did seem to have an advantage. Rail goes out today, and generally when the rail goes out on a wet track at Caulfield they start coming out wide pretty early on in the day. Expect them to be coming very wide by the end of the day, so tend towards strong finishers drawn outside barriers.

Always a tricky program with lots of spring stars resuming, and you don’t know how forward they are. Plus super heavy track. Bet lightly, dabble with a few value bets and take copious notes for the spring exams to come.

RESULTS : They are CHANGING the name of the Liston Stakes !!! What? Don't get us started. Anyway, the tips went a little ordinary, but we got the racing pattern right. Strong head wind and genuine wet track meant the swoopers dominated and on pacers had little or no chance. So pay attention to those who stuck to the inside and went OK. Amazing that even though the pattern was obvious early on, CRYSTAL LILY and AVENUE both started well supported favourites.


BEST BET : Race 1: 1-ABITOFADO $10 WIN X
Honest, on pace, wet track stayer who holds his form well and always competitive. Small field, and first use of the wet track should be hard to beat, especially with 3kgs claim for apprentice.
RESULTS : Doesn't lead and gets tough run into the breeze. Look the winner about 200M out, but tired badly - suspect just struggles to run a strong 2000M.

BEST WIN : Race 8: 15-IMPERIAL COMMAND 3rd W=$2.90
RUNNING DOUBLE : Race 7 : 2,3,7,10(scr),11,18,19(scr) / 15 x $2 = $14 1st 18-RHYTHM IN PARIS W=$11.20 / 3rd 15-IMPERIAL COMMAND W=$$2.90. $4 back for SCR
At the other end of the program you would think they will be running on hard out wide on a chopped up track. This one is lightly raced, strong finisher, on the rise, and extra distance should suit. Unknown on wet tracks, but still looks a solid bet. Value here is in the running double – race before is wide open, so throw in some value runners including the emergencies.
RESULTS : Starts very short on the tote. Well back and takes a while to get clear when had plenty to give, but the gap probably came in time and was not quite good enough.

BEST WIN : Race 2: 9-RHYTHM IN PARIS / RACE 7 : 18-RHYTHM IN PARIS $11 WIN 1st W=$11.20 = 11.20 x 11 = $123.20
Just to confuse things this one is also entered for Race 7, currently an emergency, but would be a good chance of making that field. Happy to back it in whichever race it starts in, strong finisher, lightly raced and on the rise, with wet track form. SCR last week you suspect they were aiming it for the better race this week. Haven’t tipped it in Race 7 in the selections, cause it’s a bit damm silly to tip the same horse to win two races on the same day. No – you can’t take a double.
RESULTS : RHYTHM IN PARIS starts in the harder race - but still happy to back it, and racing pattern suits as comes from behind for nice win at nice odds. Yes we wanted to tip it on top in Race 7 as well ! Oh well.

BEST ROUGH : Race 3: 9-ULUNDI $5 EW X
This field is full of crack 3YO’s on the improve, so this no namer is going to start at nice odds. Strong finisher over the 1400M last start, had a freshen and dropping back in distance, but there seems to be a fair bit of speed here. Chance the on pacers might set it up for something looking for further running on late and this one is going along well.

LAY OF THE DAY : Race 7 : 9-BIG SPIRIT – lay the place 8th W=$24.20, P=$6.50
Last start Caulfield winner, but only just held on and got own way in front, and on pacers were winning that day. This is a much harder field, big field, lots of pressure on the speed, and drawn inside which is unlikely the be the best going at the end of the day.
RESULTS : Sticks to inside, and looks like going to be in the finish 200M out, but as predicted track pattern is against and fades badly. No points for laying a $20 shot though.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
FIRST FOUR : Race 6 : 3,6,10(scr) / 11 / 4,13 / 3,4,5,6,10,13 x $2.50 = 10.41% X
FIRST FOUR : Race 6 : 3,6,10(scr) / 3,4,5,6,10,13 / 11 / 4,13 x $2.50 = 10.41% X
In the main race, suspect the last start winner 11-SHOOT OUT is going to be in the finish, but might find one better. The value outsiders are 13-CARRARA, 4-C'EST LA GUERRE. So have a bit of fun, rotate the (11) through 2nd and 3rd, and likewise with the two outsiders to come either 3rd or 4th.
RESULTS : 11-SHOOT OUT wins, first four pays nothing anyway, so no glory here.

SPENT : $50
RETURN :$127.20
NET : $+77.20


The Tips:

Race 1: 1-ABITOFADO, 3-ZOOMIN, 8-RIVETED
Race 2: 9-RHYTHM IN PARIS, 13-LUCY’S CASH, 6-MONT FLEURI
Race 3: 1-STAR WITNESS, 9-ULUNDI, 4-GENERAL TRUCE
Race 4: 1-CRYSTAL LILY, 7-MARVELLOUS MISS, 6-WARM LOVE
Race 5: 13-NICASTRO, 8-AVENUE, 1-MR BARITONE
Race 6: 6-PREDATORY PRICER, 10-SO YOU THINK, 11-SHOOT OUT
Race 7: 11-DAS MACHEN, 7-OCEAN CHALLENGER, 10-AVIONICS
Race 8: 15-IMPERIAL COMMAND, 3-ONLY HE KNOWS, 4-DANE KEEPER



RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
1-ABITOFADO
3-ZOOMIN 1st W=$3.00
8-RIVETED 3rd W=$5.10

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
9-RHYTHM IN PARIS SCR
13-LUCY’S CASH 3rd W=$6.20
6-MONT FLEURI 1st W=$5.10

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
1-STAR WITNESS 3rd W=$4.20
9-ULUNDI
4-GENERAL TRUCE

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
1-CRYSTAL LILY 2nd W=$1.70
7-MARVELLOUS MISS
6-WARM LOVE

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
13-NICASTRO 3rd W=$5.40
8-AVENUE
1-MR BARITONE

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
6-PREDATORY PRICER 2nd W=$7.20
10-SO YOU THINK SCR
11-SHOOT OUT 1st W=$2.80

Quinella : $10.50

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
11-DAS MACHEN
7-OCEAN CHALLENGER
10-AVIONICS SCR


RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
15-IMPERIAL COMMAND 3rd W=$2.90
3-ONLY HE KNOWS
4-DANE KEEPER



RACE 6: LISTON STAKES 1400M GROUP 2 WFA
Tips:
6-PREDATORY PRICER 2nd W=$7.20
10-SO YOU THINK SCR
11-SHOOT OUT 1st W=$2.80

Quinella : $10.50

Others: 13, 3

Pace: SLOW
Leaders : 13-CARRARA
Handy : 3-HEART OF DREAMS, 6-PREDATORY PRICER, 9-APPREHEND, 10-SO YOU THINK, 11-SHOOT OUT
Back : 1-SHOCKING, 2-ZAVITE, 4-C'EST LA GUERRE, 5-VIGOR, 7-MOURAYAN, 8-STERLING PRINCE, 12-MONACO CONSUL, 14-SHAMOLINE WARRIOR, 15-TOLLESPRIT

Chances:
3-HEART OF DREAMS is a handy WFA performer over the shorter trips, but seems to struggle past 1800M. Placed 3 from 4 this track and distance and an impressive 6 from 7 at Caulfield so does like the ambience of Caulfield. 1st up in the Autumn ran a solid 2nd in the C.F.Orr this track and distance, and solid 4th in this race last year so should be competitive today. Query with him is going to the be the genuine wet track – largely an unknown so hard to tell. He does seem to have a class edge on many of these, and does go well fresh so is a definite chance though. 3rd W=$6.10
6-PREDATORY PRICER has had the full year off since injuring himself in the Caulfield Cup. Won this race 1st up last year coming off a trial win (no trial this time in ?). Has had the full year off so probably want to keep an eye on what the trainer says about how forward he is. His form last spring was excellent, put himself in the finish of just about every race he contested, and only narrowly nosed out twice. On paper it looks like he doesn’t handle wet tracks – but look closer – 2 x heavy track runs were over 1200M 1st up (unsuitable), and beaten 2.5L when fav (which doesn’t look great). 2 x slow tracks has a 2nd and a < 1L 4th, so that doesn’t look too bad. Note change of trainer too. Good barrier and probably can go forward in this, if he does handle wet tracks (jury still out), and he is ready to go think he is going to go pretty close here. Good value chance.2nd W=$7.20
10-SO YOU THINK should be the star of the spring if he goes on with his form from last spring. Very lightly raced and always shown a lot of potential, early runs was known for dropping well back and coming with a finishing burst, but scooted to the lead in the Cox Plate last year and totally destroyed them. Set a tough task backing up into the Emirates, they tried to get him to settle, he over raced, went dashing forward and kicked clear about 100M out and looked the winner before one came out and nabbed him. Interesting to see where they ride him this spring, definitely think he is better racing on speed, and the break should have left plenty of time for him to mature and learn to settle. Totally untapped potential. Trainer has said he won’t run on a track worse than slow. Has drawn inside barrier and you would think the wider the better by the time this race is run. Looks the one to beat, just depends how ready he is and where he ends up racing. SCR
11-SHOOT OUT has had a boom on him this spring and actually exceeded expectations when raced forward and kicked clear over unsuitable sprint trip 1st up, especially considering he was a come from behind stayer in his Autumn 3YO season. One bad run on heavy ground, but 3 x excellent slow ground runs so probably goes through this OK. 2nd up and up 200M. Have to respect strength of 1st up win which was better than expected, but may have been slightly flattering against a fairly weak field, and stuck to the inside which did seem to be the best going that day. Drawn out, will sit handy and wide in best going on moderate speed so is going to be in the prime position to win this. Have to respect race fit, winning form wet trackers in this race so solid chance.1st W=$2.80
13-CARRARA was a honest, solid on pace 3YO miler last spring whose form did seem to taper off just a bit over the Autumn into Winter. Handles it wet and likely to go forward here and be the pace setter. Had the 3 runs this time in, so does have a big plus in race fitness on these, but they have been just OK runs – admittedly they have all been in class races with capacity fields and lots of pressure. Much better suited back to the 1400M here today, still probably a little suspect at a strong mile, and best form is in races where he sits on a moderate pace and this race looks set up for him today. Looks very well placed into this, race fitness on his side, on pace with not much pressure and OK on wet track. Solid rough chance.

Place:
4-C'EST LA GUERRE is one we perpetually love to hate. 13 starts in Australia, and only 1 place – though it was in the 2008 Melbourne Cup. Perpetually running on in races to suck unsuspecting punters in for next run, but never actually threatens to get close to winning.. Total tease. He definitely seems to be a wet tracker though, and this is the 1st time he has struck a genuinely wet track since immigrating from NZ. Has had the full year off and suspect might need the run. Actually his last three 1st up runs have been OK though, made OK ground in this race in 2008, same in the Blamey 1st up in Autumn 2009, and last spring in the Makybe Diva remember how he actually loomed up like he was going to run all over the top of them but failed to go on with it. Never, ever, ever backed this horse, but suspect he is going to run on OK today fresh, on suitable wet ground. Throw in the for value place chance.
5-VIGOR didn’t quite live up to his great potential last spring, but was balloted out of the Melbourne Cup cause the door bitch did not like his shoes. Had the 2 run clean out in the Autumn and went pretty well. Looked like was going to take spring by storm last year with tough win when wide in the Makybe Diva, but floundered at next 2 starts before another impressive performance in the Caulfield Cup. Has won on a heavy track and probably does have enough brilliance to do something fresh. Drawn out means he can run on out wide as well which is probably going to be the preferable ground. Still not quite sure about this fella, should be thereabouts, prefer place. 4th W=$12.70
14-SHAMOLINE WARRIOR has had a long, cruisey year off to find himself and work on his memoirs. SCR from Victorian Derby when favourite last year, so obviously kept in cotton wool to pounce upon the spring riches this year. Total unknown on a wet track. Did show a touch of brilliance towards the end of last spring and obviously has plenty to come. Watch betting market for moves, but prefer place 1st up, after a year off, onto a wet track.

Sacking:
1-SHOCKING is the Melbourne Cup winner of last year resuming. Given what is now a traditional 2-3 start Autumn hit out just to keep him ticking over, but without really taxing him. Keeping the best stayers fresh for the spring seems to be the plan for most of the main spring fancies. Ran on OK at 2nd start last autumn. Last spring he ran an eye catcher 1st up in a 1400M handicap, but was still well beaten. Does not seem to be competitive at these shorter trips and generally takes a few runs to find best. Only heavy track run was a gallant 2nd from last in the QLD Derby so seems to go through the going OK. Definitely set for 1st Tues in Nov, won’t be primed for this and always takes a few runs to find best. Passing.
2-ZAVITE is an on pacer stayer whose best form is definitely on top of the ground. Yet to place from 5 x 1st up runs and will need a few runs to find best. No
7-MOURAYAN is an overseas purchase who is loving the backpacker lifestyle down under. Has had just the 1 run over here down the Flem straight 1200M which isn’t going to help us line him up. Obviously being set for the cups and is going to take time and let’s wait and see what he can do before getting on board. No.
8-STERLING PRINCE has popped over from NZ for a weekend getaway. Does have a benefit of a run this time in over most of these. Dour staying type who needs distance and a tough grinding speed. Outclassed at WFA conditions against this lot. No
9-APPREHEND is a solid handicapper out of his depth in the WFA features. Well held behind the(11) 1st up. 2nd up and up 200M. Plus is has solid wet track form with 4 placings from 6 on heavy tracks. Tough on pace stayer who might go forward here with not much speed, but hard to seem him being competitive against these. No
12-MONACO CONSUL is last year’s Derby winner who didn’t get to put his feet up and have his 4 weeks annual leave, but instead got shunted over to NZ for three very disappointing runs. Oops. Competitive when bought back to Australia and even set the speed in last run over Autumn. Proven wet tracker and will get conditions to suit. OK in recent trial to prepare for this. Be interesting to see how he shapes up this spring, wasn’t really given much of a break over summer. Did win the Victorian Derby, but you do just wonder if he is better the Sydney way of going? Drawn inside and probably drops well back here on slow speed, and probably best going is going to be middle to outside of track. Just not quite sure about this one yet, stable have a very high opinion of him, but might let him run today and just see how he comes up. Passing.
15-TOLLESPRIT has always shown a bit of potential, and not had much luck, but looks to be aiming a little high here. Unknown on wet tracks and was disappointing 1st up so unlikely to be a factor in this. No.

Summary: Always a tricky race with lots of 1st up stayers commencing their spring campaigns, so sometimes a fit, good wet tracker on pace can win this race with a fitness edge over those resuming. Often a bit of value in the multiples as well as some plodding staying type can ran a huge race 1st up at silly odds.

Bit hard to line these up, with several having a long, extended break and a few coming off injury so you don’t know how hard they have been trained coming into this, or whether they just want to ease them into spring. Definitely watch the market and listen to the trainer interviews in the media to see how forward these runners are.

As is often the case does not seem to be much speed here, 13-CARRARA looks the likely leader and may even sit off the rails, 3-HEART OF DREAMS, maybe 6-PREDATORY PRICER, 11-SHOOT OUT probably next in line, but doesn’t look much pressure up front at all. Suspect the winner will coming storming down the outside of the track, and will be one of the class horses 1st up, but bit hard to tell which one. Let’s go with 6-PREDATORY PRICER who is likely to lob just behind the speed and if he runs up to his form of last year will go close to winning this – just depends how forward he is. 10-SO YOU THINK probably going to be the star of the spring – interesting to see where they ride him this time in. 11-SHOOT OUT the in form, fit one on the way up – just not sure if last week was a little flattering. Suspect he will be around the finish, but might find one better, so maybe take him as the anchor in multiples. 13-CARRARA definitely looks the best long shot in this, should set the speed and fight on well at good odds – much better suited back to the 1400M. And you just get the impression that bloody 4-C'EST LA GUERRE might do something today, so this is the one and only time this spring we are going to give him a chance at good odds.

One to risk: 12-MONACO CONSUL 6th W=$16.90
Roughie: 13-CARRARA

The Key: Watch the market on the class horses resuming to see how forward they are.

RESULTS : The favourite wins 11-SHOOT OUT, with race fitness on his side and looks set for a big spring. But we were really impressed with the run of 6-PREDATORY PRICER, who 1st up off a year off from an injury stalked the pace, kicked clear in the straight and was only just run down. He has been in the finish of most of the WFA races, just seems a little one paced. 12-MONACO CONSUL the other one to watch, stuck on well in the worse going on the inside.