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CAULFIELD : P.B. LAWRENCE (LISTON) STAKES - 13th Aug 2011
Track: DEAD (5) - Weather: FINE - Rail: OUT 4M
Betting Portfolio ($50):
Bit of rain around this week in Melbourne and fairly fine heading into the weekend, but the weather man says sunny and only 16, so it’s hardly beach weather. Track should still retain a fair bit of give, especially with a lot of fog and frost around in the mornings. So genuine DEAD track heading towards SLOW. Be wary of those who need a genuinely firm track.

Last meeting here 2 weeks back the rail was OUT 2M and they were coming off the fence most of the day and the track was favouring those running on out wide. Expect the same racing pattern today – as is often the case at Caulfield when the rail is out, on a track with some give, they will be coming off the rails around the home turn after the first few races and watch for the strong finishers later in the day.

This looks a pretty good betting program actually, you would think the two class horses Race 3 :1-SEPOY and Race 6 : 1-WHOBEGOTYOU should step up, but Races 4,5,7 are wide open and there is a good chance of a value winner, so we have thrown some roughies in accordingly. Spreading the bets out a fair bit to get warmed up for Spring.

RESULTS : Pretty ordinary day for the selections, barely a winner in sight. Probably because we were so confident of the track favouring those running on - and the track ended up favouring on pacers. It evened out by the end of the day, once the jockeys begun their usual charge to the lead, but the on pacers were very difficult to run down in the first 5 races. Pretty good days racing though from a spectator point of view - plenty to see and think about. Be wary that many of those who disappointed today might not come up for the spring.

BEST BET : Race 6: 1-WHOBEGOTYOU $11 1st W=$2.50 = 11 x 2.50 = $27.50
FIRST FOUR : Race 6 : 1 / 8 / 3,4,7,11,12 / 3,4,7,11,12 x $3 = 15% X
FIRST FOUR : Race 6 : 1 / 3,4,7,11,12 / 8 / 3,4,7,11,12 x $3 = 15% X
FIRST FOUR : Race 6 : 1 / 3,4,7,11,12 / 3,4,7,11,12 / 8 x $3 = 15% X
He just looks a class above his rivals, here, will get back and not much speed, but they normally come off the rails at Caulfield when the track is wet and he really should be able to finish over the top of these and win. Going to be short though, around $2, so question is how to milk some value. Let’s have something the win, and play with First Fours with our roughie the (8) to do something at long odds, by roving him through the placings. These first fours in feature races can still pay OK even if the favourite wins if something unusual plonks into the placings.
RESULTS : The class horse, and the good thing of the day got home. Great ride by the jockey to set him going early against the on pace pattern and lack of pace in the race. Quite unusual to see him hitting the lead half way down the straight. The odds on offer, were nothing short of amazing, thanks to the betting plunge on the spruik horse. He was way above his opposition here and really should have started less then even money - the $2.50 on offer at the jump was astounding.

BEST WIN : Race 2: 11-LAKEDRO, 12-LANGRIDGE STREET $3 WIN 2nd 11-LAKEDRO W=$7.90
There is a short priced favourite in Race 2, the (4), but think the two down the bottom of the weights represent good value. Both have some upside, both are fitter for the 2 or 3 runs in from the spell and both are more than capable of winning this. Probably just want some pace on and the runners on to be figuring though. Particularly like the way the (12) hit the line last start and may be one on the improve. Have a win bet on each of them a think they are value against the favourite.
RESULTS : Every chance, but the on pacer and extremely short priced favourite controlled the race for an easy win.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 6-MIDNIGHT GLORY $5 EW X
Half the field in the first race aren’t showing much form, and this one was hopelessly unlucky last start here when couldn’t not get clear for most of the straight and went to the line hard held. Definitely should have won last start. Should be able to sit just on the speed here and present at the right time so solid each way bet to start the day.
RESULTS : Every chance, look like he failed to run out the 2000M today.

BEST ROUGH : Race 5: 9-JEUNEYMAN $2.50 EW X
Good chance of a value winner in Race 5 and this one has been racing well. He has stung us a few times before - winning against us at long odds, so we intend to get it all back today. Dropping back from the 1600M, but suspect he doesn’t quite get that distance. Last 3 runs have all been solid running on and making good ground. Loves a bit of give in the ground, 4 times winner at Caulfield and 3 times this track and distance and looks well in here, bottom of weights and big plus is that he has race fitness over most of these. Won this race last year. Watch for him coming down the outside late. The $25 on offer really looks pretty dam tasty. Lovely rough chance and quite keen.
RESULTS : Track tended to favour on pacers, they didn't go that hard in this and although he run on OK he never threatened.


BEST ROUGH : Race 4: 9-ERVBEFEL $2 EW X
The 3YO fillies race looks pretty open so might as well look at something at odds. This one showed a bit of potential last season, was a bit green and did a few things wrong and didn’t have much luck at last start at Flemington when got shuffled back along inside rail and had to come around entire field to get to the outside and run on. Might have improved over the break and worth a little bet at odds.
RESULTS : Bloody unlucky here, the jockey missed the start when they jumped whilst he was still adjusting his stirrup / updating his facebook status, and pretty solid run to run on through the field for 6th. Keep following this one.


LAY OF THE DAY : Race 5 : 15-BEL SPRINTER at around $3 1st W=$2.80
Lightly raced one showing a stack of potential. First two wins were very impressive, then went to the lead and although won, wasn’t very convincing down the straight when seemed to be faltering at the end of the 1100M. Out to 1200M today, onto a wet track for the first time, in a big field with lots of fresh horses and often something can come out and pull out a huge run fresh. Unbeaten, but likely to find one better today so happy to take on as favourite in a big field.
RESULTS : Oh dear - you know it is going to be a very long spring when your first Lay of the Day strolls home, a well backed and dominant, all the way winner. Appalling effort to take on a untapped horse on the rise. Slap on the wrist for Turf Deli.


TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
ALL UP BET
WIN Race 3: 1-SEPOY 1st W=$1.20
EACH WAY Race 5: 9-JEUNEYMAN X
WIN Race 6: 1-WHOBEGOTYOU 1st W=$2.50
x $2.50 = $5
The two class horses should really win, at around $1.40 and $2 so you can use them in all up bets to multiply the odds on something else you like for the day. In our case, we quite like the roughie in Race 5, so will take him all up each way to try and increase our collect.
RESULTS : The two class horses get home, but our roughie lets us down. Good idea otherwise...

SPENT : $50
RETURN : $27.50
NET : $-22.50



The Tips:

Race 1: 6-MIDNIGHT GLORY, 5-MODULE, 9-MYCOLADA
Race 2: 12-LANGRIDGE STREET, 11-LAKEDRO, 5-DIGGERSANDDELAERS
Race 3: 1-SEPOY, 5-DELAGO’S LAD, 9-SNITZEM
Race 4: 9-ERVBEFEL, 6-METONYMY, 5-GLISSADE
Race 5: 9-JEUNEYMAN, 16-UTAH SAINTS, 10-PANIPIQUE
Race 6: 1-WHOBEGOTYOU, 8-I'M IMPOSING, 4-TIME MATTERS
Race 7: 5-DO RA MI, 12-SIMPLY PUT, 14-ANABAA’S LEGACY
Race 8: 6-BIANCON ROSE, 8-LITTLE TYCOON, 3-GOSSIP GIRL

RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
6-MIDNIGHT GLORY
5-MODULE
9-MYCOLADA SCR

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
12-LANGRIDGE STREET
11-LAKEDRO 2nd W=$7.90
5-DIGGERSANDDELAERS

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
1-SEPOY 1st W=$1.20
5-DELAGO’S LAD
9-SNITZEM

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
9-ERVBEFEL
6-METONYMY 2nd W=$9.90
5-GLISSADE

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
9-JEUNEYMAN
16-UTAH SAINTS 2nd W=$18.00
10-PANIPIQUE

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
1-WHOBEGOTYOU 1st W=$2.50
8-I'M IMPOSING
4-TIME MATTERS

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
5-DO RA MI
12-SIMPLY PUT
14-ANABAA’S LEGACY 3rd W=$18.10

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
6-BIANCON ROSE 1st W=$2.80
8-LITTLE TYCOON
3-GOSSIP GIRL


RACE 6: P.B LAWRENCE (LISTON STAKES) GROUP 2 1400M WFA
Tips:
1-WHOBEGOTYOU 1st W=$2.50
8-I'M IMPOSING
4-TIME MATTERS

Others: 11

Pace: MODERATE
Leaders : 3-JUNGLE RULER
Handy : 4-TIME MATTERS, 7-VESPER, 9-PRINCE OBAMA, 10-CELLARMASTER. 12-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN
Back : 1-WHOBEGOTYOU, 2-MOURAYAN, 5-GUEST WING, 6-BUDAI, 11-ABSOLUTELY

Chances:
1-WHOBEGOTYOU is just about the best 1400-1600M to horse in the country and has been competing at the top level for a few years now - or running 2nd at the top level, depending if you are a fan or not. Tends to be not quite as dominant once he goes up in distance, and the handicaps can be tricky when he gets trapped at the back of big fields. This is pretty much his go, smallish WFA field, track likely to favour those running on, and he looks a class above most of these. Racing style of dropping back means he can often find one better if there is a class horse in the field – giving them too much of a head start. Is there a class horse in this field though ? Fresh form is excellent – 5 starts, 1 win and 4 placings, Placed 9 from 10 here at Caulfield, but yet to win over the 1400M, racking up 6 seconds from 8 attempts – and four of these seconds are at Caulfield. Last two times 1st up, at track and distance he has been beaten by MORE JOYOUS and SO YOU THINK – and he made a decent race of both of those, giving the champ a decent scare 1st up in the Memsie here last year. Definitely nothing of that calibre in the race this year. Main negative is that there really doesn’t seem to be much speed at all in the race, but there also doesn’t seem to be much depth at all, and as long as the track is favouring those running on (which it should be), he definitely is the one to beat. Strong chance. 1st W=$2.50

4-TIME MATTERS is a solid Caulfield 1400M-1600M handicapper, sneaking in to give a poor quality WFA race a shake. Might as well too. Excellent form at Caulfield (4 wins), 1400M (6 wins) and the Caulfield 1400M (4 wins, 3 placings). Has race fitness on his side too over many of these and is going along OK – placed last two this track and distance. Probably just wants the track a tad firmer than it is at the moment though – better side of dead or better. Racing extremely well, hasn’t finished further back than 6th in last 9 outings. Has been dropping back a bit further back than usual this preparation, but normally he races handy and you would think in a smallish WFA field, with not much speed he will probably lob close to the lead and put himself into this finish. Probably finds one better, but definitely the best rough chance for trifectas etc. Rough.

8-I'M IMPOSING is an import who you would hope has settled in now after a full year and might be ready to do something this spring. Win here on Thousand Guineas day last year was excellent at 1st start in Australia, and you would think a wet track would be his thing today. His 1st two runs during autumn were actually not that bad – finished on well when not beaten that far in the Blamey, and closing again after striking trouble before the turn the start after that over 1800M at Caulfield. Probably drops back here 1st up over 1400M, but this isn’t the strongest field, track is likely to favour runners on out wide and got a sneaky feeling he may do something today. Like the $41 or so on offer. Genuine rough chance.

11-ABSOLUTELY is a lightly raced 4YO mare showing a bit of staying potential. Has been taken along slowly, skipping the 3YO F staying races during the spring, so maybe that might be the trick to getting these ones to perform as 4YO mares – cause really extremely few of the classic winning 3YO fillies have stepped up the next season. See comments in summary section. Strong finisher who should be suited by track pattern, and might just be a bit better on rain affected tracks. Beaten by the (12) the only two times they have met. Likely to be finishing on, and quite capable of winning this in a fairly lacklustre field, but just finding it hard to get enthused about the 4YO mares based on their record last couple of seasons. Won’t be far away. Rough chance only. SCR

Place:
3-JUNGLE RULER is a grand, old, front running grey mud lark who just seems to keep on going on. 94 starts and a whopping 18 wins. He often strikes form around this time and five time winner over the Caulfield 1400M. Hopelessly out of form at the moment, but Caulfield, August and a wet track are just a few of his favourite things. He can stage form reversals rather rapidly, he is going to get a uncontested lead here and he has been taken on in the lead last few starts which has bought him unstuck. Has contested this race twice before though - in 2008 when he was flying and gave it a bit of a shake, and in 2009 when he did little. Handicaps are his go, but most of these are handicappers anyway, so think he is worth a rough place chance on an uncontested lead. Place.

12-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN is one of the spruik horses of the spring – and rightly so too. Undefeated in 4 starts, in leading stable, could be just about anything. Been taken along very slowly, another who missed the spring 3YO filly staying races, and that might be the trick to getting these to perform in open WFA class as a 4YO mare. Undoubtedly has a stack of ability – but to be honest think she is lucky to be unbeaten. At Sandown she came hard against the outside rail on one of those days when it was the wider the better. At MV she really had to give it her all to get past a leader who kicked. Capable of sitting on the speed here with not much pace in this race. Problem is though she has drawn barrier 1 and good chance the inside will be off and she will get stuck in the worse ground. Yet to strike a genuinely wet track, into 4YO mare season, into open WFA class for the 1st time, there are plenty of question marks there. Not much depth here though, but just wanting to tend away from her at the odds on offer – $2.50 or so ? May even contest favouritism ? Realise this is going to be an appalling and embarrassing start to spring if she gets up, but just have to take her on here. Will be thereabouts in the finish, but prefer to risk. 2nd W=$2.10

Sacking:
2-MOURAYAN is an average Williams stayer who has made a pattern of taking off mid race and sitting a ferocious pace in staying events. Resumed in this race last year and did very little and normally takes a few runs and some distance to get into form. No

5-GUEST WING has popped over from Western Australia, via Sandown and Tasmania (as you do). Perth Cup winner, but struggled at last two runs over here before a spell. Likely to drop well back over this trip 1st up, probably dreaming of a cup campaign and prefer to see.

6-BUDAI is a European import, who we are going to call BUDDY in the most Occa accent we can. Only lightly raced and it does seem that more and more of these are popping up over the last couple of years and getting it right and claiming some of the lesser races. Totally impossible to line up – have to watch the market - the betting market that is, though the share market and Victoria Market will probably give you just as good a guide cause really it is impossible to tell until he goes around. Always prefer to wait and see with these types though – no point betting on unknowns. Plenty of knowns we can lose our money on. Passing.

7-VESPER is an OK Williams middle distance type, who you would hope would step up a notch in his 5 year old season, being lightly raced until now. He goes along OK, can jump and race on speed if required. Probably has a bit of upside about him. Not sure about 1st up over 1400M though, at WFA, not quite certain of where his ability slots in just at the moment and prefer to let him run. No. 4th W=$29.20

9-PRINCE OBAMA is a lightly raced Tassie visitor who is going along OK, so might as well have a crack at an early WFA race. Fit and in form, so has race fitness over many of these. Fitter for the 3 runs in, handles wet tracks, but only won a 72 rating race last start so this is a gigantic leap. Will probably sit on the speed and add some pace to this, but you would think will get swooped once they get into the straight. Out of his depth. No 3rd W=$55.90

10-CELLARMASTER is a NZ import having his first preparation over here and he is going along OK – just. Pretty disappointing when beaten favourite here last start. Competitive group race form over in NZ so you would think he would have shown more than he has so far here. Seems to prefer a firmer track. Should sit handy. Up in class here again, and just would prefer to see a bit more before getting on him in this race. Prefer to risk.


Summary: Time to kick off spring as is tradition with the Liston Stakes. Or maybe the Lawrence Stakes. Take your pick. Extremely lacklustre field this year which seems to lack a lot of depth, really not much in the way of classy stayers resuming heading towards possible Cup glory. These early WFA races can often be dominated by on pacers, with the majority of the field dropping well back and having warm up runs whilst looking for longer trips.

Question is going to be whether the staying 3YO fillies step up and are competitive in open class during their 4YO season ? Guess you could argue that the (11) and (12) aren’t really your typical 3YO staying fillies as they didn’t contest the classic filly races over the spring, so that might make a difference ? But have a look back at the dominant 3YO fillies the last couple of years, FAINT PERFUME, VALDEMORO, SERENADE ROSE, HOLLOW BULLET, SPECIAL HARMONY – all have failed to go on in their 4YO season, especially against open company. The one exception there is MISS FINLAND – who was way above average as a 3YOF, and do you know what odds she was when she won the Memsie 1st up – having won a Thousand Guineas, been competitive in a Cox Plate, won a VRC Oaks, and a Australian Guineas ? She started $4.40 !. Suspect the (12) is going to start way under the odds and represents bad value on that basis – betting on potential rather than form. She may prove us wrong – there really isn’t much competition except for the (1), but just can’t be on at the odds on offer.

Pace here should only be moderate, 3-JUNGLE RULER should finally get a soft lead, and the poor old tough bugger deserves it for once. 4-TIME MATTERS, 12-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN the only two likely to sit handy, so there probably isn’t that much pressure up front.

But this track does normally chop up and favour runners on, and we are super keen on 1-WHOBEGOTYOU here, despite being famous for often running 2nd. Just looks his race, strong finisher, fresh, small field, some give in the ground, and most importantly he is grades above most of these. Really should win. Smokey here is 8-I'M IMPOSING who have a sneaky feeling might just do something 1st up, and solid place chance to the fit and in form 4-TIME MATTERS. Interesting to see how the 4YO mares go this year.

One to risk: 12-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN 2nd W=$2.10
Roughie: 8-I'M IMPOSING

The Key: Are the 4YO mares going to step up this season ?

RESULTS : The class horse, and the good thing of the day got home. Great ride by the jockey to set him going early against the on pace pattern and lack of pace in the race. Quite unusual to see him hitting the lead half way down the straight. The odds on offer, were nothing short of amazing, thanks to the betting plunge on the spruik horse. He was way above his opposition here and really should have started less then even money - the $2.50 on offer at the jump was astounding. Sold run 1st up from 12-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN who looks like she is going to measure up this spring. Although she was unlucky and held up for runs doubt she would have beaten WHOBE. Just have to be concerned when the rank outsider the 9-PRINCE OBAMA, coming off country form in a 72 rating race is beaten less than a length ??? What's going on there?


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