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| CAULFIELD : LAWRENCE-LISTON STAKES - 18th Aug 2012 |
| Track: HEAVY(8) - Weather: YET MORE RAIN - Rail: OUT 3M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Has been pretty wet in Melbourne for what seems like an eternity now, and still more rain, and yet more rain leading into the weekend. Caulfield has had a fair bit of racing over winter and the track is looking a little patchy in parts with not much sunshine to report. Last meeting here 3 weeks ago, rail TRUE they were definitely coming off the rails and expect the same thing to happen here. They should be coming off the rails pretty early in the day and expect the track so favour those running on late out wide. Genuine heavy too, so stick to those race fit who are proven in the ground. Not a great day for a bet with most of the races light on for chances. RESULTS : Dead set bog HEAVY(10) and nothing makes ground all day - including our tips. Tough going on the punt and fairly lack lustre meeting all round. Open up season 2012 with a wipe out on the Betting Portfolio which has gotta hurt. BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 11-BONARIA $10 EW X Very tough race with quite a few in form mares, but this one just seems to be flying at the moment and happy to stick with her at around W=$15. Won both starts this time in, seems to be on an upward spiral. Just seems to love it wet and really like the way she extended away from them here last start. No claim this time around and a tougher field, but drawn to sit out wide and swoop at them which is how she won last time and how this track is likely to race again so good chance she will do the same thing again. RESULTS : Poor ride from jockey seeing the track is favouring on pacers and drops back and runs on extremely well under the circumstances. Keep following regardless. BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 8-MOULIN BLEU $5 EW X First race of the day, first use of the track might as well get on the leader. In a race with not much form, and plenty of runners with little to recommend them this one should jump and run and get an uncontested lead. Plus has got an apprentice claim. Showed a bit of kick last start at Flem and should go well again here. RESULTS : Well backed, but gets taken on in lead and folds pretty quickly in the straight. Disappointing BEST ROUGH : Race 4: 12-MAREEZA $3 WIN, $5 PLACE X Topweight and class runner the (1) is going to start very short in this race, but probably worth considering others as she does need to try and get off the rails from barrier 1. This one was an eye catcher last start, where she race erratically around the home turn and didn’t seem to switch on till she straightened and made really good late ground once she did. Still seems to be learning and has shown some ability before that so looks a nice value bet at around $26. RESULTS : Gets far too far back and runs on OK. Still worth following especially over more ground. QUINELLA : Race 2: 11-TRANQUERA, 4-TOTAL ATTRACTION x $4 4th 11-TRANQUERA W=$8.40, 3rd 4-TOTAL ATTRACTION W=$3.30 QUINELLA : Race 2: 11-TRANQUERA, 6-THY x $3 4th 11-TRANQUERA W=$8.40, 1st 6-THY W=$10.00 This one has been racing pretty well and is one of the few with race fitness in this field so should be in the finish again. Main danger is the (4) who will start favourite, but is 2nd up and up in distance and suspect the (6) might do something fresh. Take some quinellas and try and squeeze a bit more value out of this race. RESULTS : Not too far off here and the 6-THY is a very impressive value winner and looks to be going places. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 8 : 5-GALILEO GOLD at around $3 3rd W=$4.10 Been racing along OK, but yet to strike a genuine heavy track and by the end of the day this track could be a total bog. Had every chance in fairly weak race last start when beaten favourite, back to 1600M suits better but the $3 still just looks too short – especially if you want to get out in the last so look for value runners elsewhere. RESULTS : Perfect sit on the speed but just doesn't put in at the finish - definitely needs it firmer TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. QUINELLA : Race 7 : BOX : 7,8,11,12(scr),14 x 50 cents = $5. SCR $2 1st 14-LADY MELKSHAM W=$3.60 Toughest and widest race of the day, but there should be plenty of value in the quinella so simply box up some value chances and hope for a collect. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $2 NET : $-48 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 8-MOULIN BLEU, 5-OAK HEART, 2-YULALONA Race 2: 11-TRANQUERA, 4-TOTAL ATTRACTION, 6-THY Race 3: 7-FREE OF DOUBT, 1-UNDERESTIMATION, 2-THE TRAVELLING MAN Race 4: 1-SAMAREADY, 12-MAREEZA, 7-MEMBERS JOY Race 5: 4-FREERETURN, 5-MOMENT OF CHANGE, 8-INSTINCTION Race 6: 4-REKINDLED INTEREST, 6-READY TO RIP, 9-PRINCE OBAMA Race 7: 11-BONARIA, 12-RUE MAPLE, 8-BOOKLET Race 8: 6-FORTY THIRTY, 3-STREETS AWAY, 7-THE LONG ROAD |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-MOULIN BLEU 5-OAK HEART 2-YULALONA |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-TRANQUERA 4-TOTAL ATTRACTION 3rd W=$3.30 6-THY 1st W=$10.00 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-FREE OF DOUBT 3rd W=$8.70 1-UNDERESTIMATION 2-THE TRAVELLING MAN |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-SAMAREADY 12-MAREEZA 7-MEMBERS JOY |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-FREERETURN 1st W=$2.50 5-MOMENT OF CHANGE SCR 8-INSTINCTION 3rd W=$4.20 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-REKINDLED INTEREST SCR 6-READY TO RIP 3RD W=$3.40 9-PRINCE OBAMA |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-BONARIA 12-RUE MAPLE SCR 8-BOOKLET |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-FORTY THIRTY 2nd W=$2.60 3-STREETS AWAY 1st W=$2.90 7-THE LONG ROAD SCR Quinella : $3.50 |
| RACE 6: P.B.J.J LAWRENCE-LISTON STAKES GROUP 2 1400M |
| Tips: 4-REKINDLED INTEREST SCR 6-READY TO RIP 3RD W=$3.40 9-PRINCE OBAMA |
| Others: 2 Pace: EVEN Leaders :- Handy : 2-HEART OF DREAMS, 6-READY TO RIP, 7-MR CHARD, 8-SECOND EFFORT, 9-PRINCE OBAMA, 13-BARE KNUCKLE Back : 1-FIUMICINO, 3-LUCKYGRAY, 4-REKINDLED INTEREST, 5-SEVILLE, 10-GUNS AT FIVE, 11-ZAMORAR, 12-MISTER MILTON Chances: 2-HEART OF DREAMS is a grand ol’ Caulfield campaigner who hopefully will get a race named after him one day. How about the Lawrence Stakes ? Had the same name for at least a few years now so probably about time for a name change again. Class performer, who was due to start a few weeks back but had an injury setback. Class above most of these and meeting some pretty lack lustre opposition in this race this year. Ran 2nd 1st up in the Memsie Stakes last spring when only just beaten, and 3rd in this race 1st up in 2010. Probably better on firmer ground, although he does seem to go OK in the wet you suspect a genuine heavy probably isn’t really his go. Maybe a bit of a query if the rain continues to come down. Had a solid year off, but you would suspect had done plenty of work to get ready for spring, especially seeing he was entered last meeting here and scratched. Has class on these and that might be enough to get him through so some chance. Chance. 4-REKINDLED INTEREST is a bit of a grand pretender in our books and we got sucked in plenty of times during his 3YO season. Known for his flashy runs into the placings with his powerful finishing burst – shame that burst isn’t good enough to get him to the finishing post first very often – but hey – at least it looks good ? Excellent runs in last year’s Cox Plate and Mackinnon so has some class on these. Think it was telling his only win last spring was in the Dato Tan, on a swoopers track, where most of his opposition had no luck and well basically, it was his birthday. Probably not on his best on a wet track, but goes through it OK. Despite all this think he is a factor today – these early WFA races are probably his best chance to win races, he has the turn of foot and goes OK fresh. Will drop back and run on. Chance. SCR 6-READY TO RIP seems to be on an upward spiral and it is always worth following fit , in form horses during early spring. Good win strike rate, won both races this time in, fitter for the 2 runs in and most importantly in this field, race fit, winning form and can sit and lob on the speed here and make his own luck, whilst most of these 1st uppers drop back and give the field a start. Proven in wet ground. Inside barrier and not much speed should really get run of the race here. Yet to win past 1200M though, put in some OK 1400M runs, but guess question might just be if one of the classier runners is too strong at the end of a heavy track 1400M ? But race fit , on speed, wet tracker – ticks all the boxes for this race and has to rate on top. One to beat. 3RD W=$3.40 9-PRINCE OBAMA is an out and out on pace wet track 1400M horse so gets a lot of things in is favour today. Most famous run was here in this race last year when put in a huge run to be narrowly beaten at 100-1. Struggled for form a little since then and does not seem to have returned to best, but glimpses of form this time in. Was beaten a long, long way here 3 weeks back but was SCR from Flem last Sat , assume to be kept for this. Not a huge amount of speed here, can sit on speed, handles it wet, race fit, probably not quite at best, but maybe he just needs a few runs to run back into form. Inside barrier probably a little worry as they are likely to be coming wide in the straight. Still very impressive win/place strike rate so rates a rough chance in this. Rough. Place: 3-LUCKYGRAY is a WA visitor to thankfully add a bit of interest to what is a bit of a dull race. Won 10 from 13, Group 1 winner – though required a bit of a helping hand on the stewards – good to see them giving out encouragement awards over in WA. Obviously has a fair bit of ability, but never seen a wet track, yet alone a deteriorating Caulfield heavy. Will drop back and run on late which will probably be the racing pattern. Have to watch market, sure to get lots of support so have to put in, but probably prefer to see how he lines up under these conditions. Chance, but prefer to see run. 4th W=$3.00 7-MR CHARD is a tough on pacer 1400M who showed a bit of form during spring 2010, but has obviously had some injury issues, but didn’t really fire during the Autumn. Had a full year off before just the one run this Autumn and turned out again. Interesting to see he is Caulfield Cup / Cox Plate entered, so the stable still thinks he might step up a grade. Some really tough efforts spring 2010, especially his bog track 1400M win here which is worth noting. Might be a rapid improver 2nd up here – and looks like he genuinely handles a wet track which is a big plus. Rough 10-GUNS AT FIVE is a NZ Moody runner who is a bit of an unknown quantity. Solid staying form over in NZ, but yet to strike wet ground – but no reason why he should not handle it. In form jockey on board who is on a early spring winning gold medal rush. Market is the guide here – likely to drop back but wouldn’t have to do much to be a factor against these. Chance. Sacking: 1-FIUMICINO is an old time stayer who hasn’t shown any form for a while now. Last win was April 2009, had a solid break with injury before not really firing last campaign. Goes OK in the wet, but no fresh form and no 1400M form and really need to wait for some return to form before getting on. No 5-SEVILLE is a Williams import who had his little warm up runs over Autumn and went along OK. Definitely looking for distance and did not show anything 1st up over this distance here in April. Prefer to let run. 8-SECOND EFFORT is normally a very consistent type who has disappointed last 2 runs and seems to be struggling with an injury. Excellent wet track form. Yet to win past 1200M and although went OK only try this distance you get the impression probably likely to find one better at the end of 1400M. 2nd up and up 300M and with the stewards reports suggesting he has a few issues would need to wait and see a return to form before getting on. No 1st W=$10.10 11-ZAMORAR has been a very consistent wet track sprinter over the winter months and has been going around most weeks. Had 8 starts this time in and finished in the top 4 every time – impressive. Can drop back or sit on the speed – today from outside barrier you think they might drop back and take a sit ? . Just seems to have had every chance last few starts – very consistent – but don’t think there is much more improvement to come, and out to the 1400M for the first time here might bring him undone. Prefer others. 2nd W=$5.50 12-MISTER MILTON has a bit of ability but does not win out of turn. Fitter for the 2 runs in but seems a genuine query on wet ground. Probably drops back here and might improve 3rd up but prefer to wait for some form. No 13-BARE KNUCKLE is a Geelong synthetic maiden winner who took quite a few cracks to break through and up to WFA Group 2 looks out of his depth – although is only lightly raced and around the money most times prefer to let run. No Summary: Fairly luck lustre edition of this race, but generally race fit in form on pacers will go well here. The 6-READY TO RIP and the 11-ZAMORAR tick those boxes, we just aren’t keen on the (11) though who has been up a while and had plenty of chances and yet to race past the 1200M. The (6) is in winning form and should be a factor here, little query is going to be whether something runs over the top of the end of the 1400M which is a slight query, but stable is pretty good at stepping these up and getting the best out of them. Pace should only be even here with 6-READY TO RIP, 7-MR CHARD , 9-PRINCE OBAMA probably setting the speed and most of the WFA class runners dropping back and giving these ones a start. Still on a track that is chopping up they will be running on out wide so those back markers should have their chance. We are going to push for the 4-REKINDLED INTEREST 1st up here – and he is normally a horse we love to pot, but just suspect 1st up he might run over the top of these, especially as a few of these are suss at the 1400M. 6-READY TO RIP looks the obvious winning chance, fit, in form, on pace, just the last little bit is going to be the test and 9-PRINCE OBAMA might get back to something like his best with a few runs in and his run in this race last year was really outstanding – if he repeated that run he would beat these. One to risk: 11-ZAMORAR 2nd W=$5.50 Roughie: 7-MR CHARD The Key: Race fit on pace in form RESULTS : Extremely lack lustre affair with very little interest going forward. In hindsight, once you ruled out the first uppers who were going to get too far back and narrowed it down to the on pace wet trackers the winner was probably staring you in the face. OK runs from the 2-HEART OF DREAMS and 3-LUCKYGRAY, who was extremely well backed, but still really hard to have on a heavy (10) track for the first time. |
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