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| CAULFIELD : LAWRENCE (LISTON) STAKES - 17th Aug 2013 |
| Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 3M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Back to Caulfield to kick off yet another Turf Deli Spring Campaign. Weather has been hot and cold all week, lots of rain midweek, some sunny and windy days heading into the weekend and a few showers Saturday. Basically whatever rain came midweek should have dried out by the weekend so likely to be looking at a genuine DEAD or better track. Rail is OUT 3M here, last meeting the rail was TRUE and the track did tend to favour those racing on the speed, but unlikely to be any racing pattern today and every horse should have it’s chance - even the ones we back. Pretty hard to get enthused about this meeting, really not that many genuine betting races, lots of 1st up horses, two very even early 3YO events and some races with next to no form at all. So just keep it small and wait till we get a feel for how these are all going before getting on. RESULTS: Track come up quite firm at a GOOD(3) and there is a distinct racing pattern on a windy day favouring those running on late - quite a few horses came from well back in the field on the turn to win. The tips kick off another Spring Campaign with a gigantic flop - barely troubling the scorer, and capped off with the Lay of the Day winning. Wonderful way to kick off a Spring Campaign. BEST BET: Race 7: 9-ACADEMY JACK $8 WIN X QUINELLA: Race 7: 9-ACADEMY JACK, 2-SEA LORD, 5-SERENE STAR boxed x $7 = 233% X Although this is one of the more competitive races today with lots of talented horses 1st up, the (9) sticks out on form. Has rapidly improved this preparation, and ran a huge race at odds last start at WFA Group 3 level when was finishing on really strongly – and was unlucky as well, so went close to causing a huge upset. Coming off a good WFA run and appeals back to the minimum here today. Does get back – and there isn’t much speed in this race, so just needs them to run along a bit so he can run on, but looks a solid bet at the $4.60 on offer with lots of money for the 1st uppers. Back straight out and save with a quinella with the (2), who although looks out of form is the only leader here and doesn’t get the speed to himself very often at all so might improve, and the (5), who is one of our favourite horses, loves Caulfield, and get blinkers on today and finally a drop in weight. RESULTS: Drifts considerably in betting on the firmer ground, but does loom up around the 200M mark to run into the race and runs smack bang into a dead end. Didn't seem to finish it off again after that, but run is probably better than it looks so keep following. BEST WIN: Race 2: 6-LUCKYI’MBAREFOOT, 1-CHASSE $4 WIN X Always hard to judge these races with lots of imports going around, but worth taking over the odds here about the two in form local horses. The (6) is in form with a nice light weight with the claim, doesn’t win that often and has made a habit of running on really well, really late – but does keep racing well. Does prefer it wet, but capable on dry. The (1) is weighted to his best, but looks like could be returning to his best form with the 2 runs this time in, both of which have been excellent, particularly last start when stuck on really well at Flem on the inside, which was not the best going. Just wants to get out from the inside barrier here. Does seem to be a fair bit of speed here from the (4),(7),(8),(9), so these two should be able to run on OK and worth something straight out at $10 and $8. RESULTS: 1-CHASSE doesn't do much, 6-LUCKYI’MBAREFOOT another not suited on the firmer ground does his usual trick of dropping too far back and running on late....again..and again...and again.. BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 2-FAST’N’ROCKING $4 EW 2nd W=$4.20, P=$1.30 = $5.20 A maiden after 7 starts normally doesn’t appeal in the feature 3YO races, but took on all the top 2YO races over autumn and ran on really well every start, which is unusual for a 2YO so obviously has some ability. Recent barrier trial winner so looks forward and just suspect he will have improved with a break and will go well fresh, finishing hard. Happy to have something each way at around $6, but suspect will drift further on the day and there are bound to be some solid betting moves in this race. RESULTS: Probably the unluckiest runner of the day, held up on the inside, going for several different runs and finally gets clear and finishes with an almighty burst to almost pinch it. Definitely keep following as he goes up in distance, looks like he is going to be a contender this spring. BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 4-LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT $4 EW X Absolutely dead-set awful race, with no form from top to bottom, so really anything could happen. This one never quite lived up to his early potential, and has been out of form, but with the 3 runs in this time, think there was just a glimpse of coming into form last start. You would only need a glimpse of form to win this anyway. Solid 2000M record, dry track suits, and big plus is there is close to no speed here so hoping they will go forward on this one. Have something each way at the $13 on offer and close your eyes and hope for the best. RESULTS: Goes forward like we wanted, but does nothing and seems to have lost all form. Well and truly sacked. BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 13-IT’S POET DAY $3 EW X Last race is the most open race of the day, but think this one is over the odds on recent good form. Race fit where most of these are 1st up, and really liked the last 2 runs, last start she chased home really well once into the clear. Out to the 1200M for the 1st time, but last run suggested the distance will suit, and only had the 9 starts so probably got improvement to come. Just want to see her positioned handy from an inside barrier in a big field. Looks way over the odds at around $31 and keen to have something each way here – if she sits close to the speed here suspect she is going to be in the finish at odds. RESULTS: Does nothing, might not have been suited up in class and onto firmer ground. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 8: 6-OCTAVIA at around $3.10 1st W=$3.00 This one was an impressive winner here last start, but had no weight, got a very soft lead, on a track that was favouring on pacers – pretty much no way she was going to be beaten there. Race fit, good winning strike rate and Caulfield record, but up substantially in weight today, into a much stronger field, and should be a little more pressure up front in a big field. She will probably be around the finish, but in a big field with lots of good mares 1st up you just suspect something is going to come out and run over the top of her, so she looks too short at the current odds. RESULTS: Oh wonderful, after barely finding a winner all day, on a track that is strongly favouring those running on, the Lay of the Day leads all the way against the rails to win. Thanks for that ! TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. Quinella: Race 8: 2,3,5,13,15(scr) boxed x $5 = 50% $2 The last race looks the most open with a big field, and we are happy to take on the favourite the (6), and like our best roughie the (13), so should be a value quinella here if things turn out that way. Box up the on pace horse the (3), with the likely 4YO improvers the (5) and (15) and the 2-BONARIA is one of our favourites and keeps going around at nice odds and running well. RESULTS: Never got close SPENT: $50 RETURN: $7.20 NET: -$42.80 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 2-LOVE FOR RANSOM, 7-KUKLA, 5-BIA DIAMOND Race 2: 6-LUCKYI’MBAREFOOT, 1-CHASSE, 3-BIT OF HELL Race 3: 4-LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT, 8-BELLS OF TROY, 11-FIRST COURSE Race 4: 2-FAST’N’ROCKING, 5-IL CAVALLO, 6-HILL SPY Race 5: 5-ZELLINDI, 8-SPIRIT OF HEAVEN, 4-BULBULA, Race 6: 4-PUISSANCE DE LUNE, 1-SECOND EFFORT, 6-PAGO ROCK Race 7: 9-ACADEMY JACK, 2-SEA LORD, 5-SERENE STAR Race 8: 5-YOU’RE SO GOOD, 13-IT’S POET DAY, 15-PETITE DIABLESSE |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-LOVE FOR RANSOM 7-KUKLA 5-BIA DIAMOND 2nd W=$10.40 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-LUCKYI’MBAREFOOT 1-CHASSE 3-BIT OF HELL |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT 8-BELLS OF TROY 2nd W=$2.40 11-FIRST COURSE |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-FAST’N’ROCKING 2nd W=$4.20 5-IL CAVALLO 6-HILL SPY 3rd W=$8.30 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-ZELLINDI 8-SPIRIT OF HEAVEN 4-BULBULA |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-PUISSANCE DE LUNE 1st W=$3.40 1-SECOND EFFORT 3rd W=$7.50 6-PAGO ROCK |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-ACADEMY JACK 2-SEA LORD 5-SERENE STAR |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-YOU’RE SO GOOD 13-IT’S POET DAY 15-PETITE DIABLESSE SCR |
| RACE 6: LAWRENCE (LISTON) STAKES 1400M GROUP 2 WFA |
| Tips: 4-PUISSANCE DE LUNE 1st W=$3.40 1-SECOND EFFORT 3rd W=$7.50 6-PAGO ROCK |
| Others: 8 Pace: SOLID Leaders : 5-UNDER THE SUN, 9-AJEEB Handy : 1-SECOND EFFORT, 2-LAUNAY , 6-PAGO ROCK Back : 3-UNDER THE EIFFEL, 4-PUISSANCE DE LUNE, 7-BIANMICK, 8-HIGH ESTEEM Chances: 1-SECOND EFFORT is one we feel is a little under rated and is perfectly aimed to try and pinch these early WFA races. Won this race last year on his preferred wet track when 2nd up, and despite being flagged as a dead set wet tracker his effort the week after in the Memsie last year on a dry track was actually pretty solid when he chased really hard to the line. Fairly substandard WFA field in terms of depth here so is right in this. Fitter for the 2 runs in, eye catching run sticking close to the rails here 2 starts back, coming from last on the turn, and then positioned more forward last start to win on track that was suiting on pacers. Likely to jump forward here and make his own luck and should be right in this – wet or dry. Strong chance. 3rd W=$7.50 4-PUISSANCE DE LUNE is the reigning Melbourne Cup favourite and bit of a surprise to see him up and about this early in the spring. Total sensation of late spring with dominant wins, and really could be just about anything, even the next Prime Minister. Normally these overseas imports kick off over a bit further, and later in the spring as they don’t need as much racing to get out to a distance. So question is going to be – how forward is he on Liston Stakes Day when his main target is the Melbourne Cup? And those of you with long memories might remember GREEN MOON’s 1st up barrier trial and teddy bear picnic outing / ridden back in the field run in the Memsie of last year. Given the now traditional Autumn warm up run when he just got there on the line, and had the wonky legs looked at since then. Having had a full year to get used to Down Under customs though, and still lightly raced he should show something fresh. Obviously the one to beat, and on class alone should cover these - watch the betting and listen to the interviews and get a feel for how forward he is though. One to beat. 1st W=$3.40 6-PAGO ROCK is another smart handicapper trying to pick up some early WFA sneaky collects. Always been very consistent and shown some talent, but seemed to go up another notch last month or so. Was flying first 4 runs this time in, and really like the way he chased down a leader that had kicked here 2 starts back. Then probably a little disappointing here last start, but worked early and did get caught up in a speed battle up front. Track on the firmer side suits. Is a winner, actually wasn’t beaten that far last start and will position right on the speed here and make his own luck. May get out to better than expected odds after being slightly disappointing last start, but solid chance here. Chance. 4th W=$8.40 8-HIGH ESTEEM is a lightly raced 4YO 1st up and often they can step up in this race. Rapidly improved through the Autumn when sent forward, but unlikely to go forward here 1st up in a race with a fair bit of speed. These types are capable of rapid improvement so probably represents the best rough chance in this on untapped potential. Rough. Place: 2-LAUNAY is one we have to admit we find hard to catch, but does have ability. Just struggled for form a bit last spring, under big weights, but seems to have turned it around in the Autumn preparation and seems to be back to his best. 2nd up and up 200M, but should have plenty of improvement to come. Likes to position handy and small field here, but speed does look solid, although they often don’t go hard in these early WFA races. Pretty sure he doesn’t like being inside horses though and has drawn (1) today, should be thereabouts, but just tending towards place. Place. 9-AJEEB is lightly raced and showing a lot of potential. Well backed here last start when dashed across from outside barrier and led all the way, but the track was favouring on pacers that day and he did only just hang on. Rising rapidly in class here and wasn’t carrying big weights in his lead up runs. In a normal Liston, you would rate a race fit improving leader a pretty solid chance – bit unusual this year in that there is a fair bit of speed in this race – most years a leader can pinch this race if right. Left alone in front, and if the track is favouring on pacers he can win this, but suspect there is going to be a bit of pressure up front and it will set it up for something running on. Place. 2nd W=$6.40 Sacking: 3-UNDER THE EIFFEL is a honest type who showed a lot of potential early on, but his form does seem to have tapered off a little later in his career. He is consistent – without being outstanding. Has been carrying big weights in handicaps, so suited up to WFA weight scale here. He has been in work since October last year – today is his 18th run this time in – and it is well known that he peaks at his 19th run every preparation, being a 19th up specialist and all. Amazingly he has run every single month since Oct last year ! And this will be his 8th run over the Caulfield 1400M in that time. Know they like to award prizes for the horse that wins the most races at a course in a season – is there a prize for turning up to race the most as well? Tends to just drift back a little in his races, needs the speed on, and is better on firmer ground which he should get today, but probably just tested at this level. Passing. 5-UNDER THE SUN is a Sydney visitor for a good win strike rate and solid 1400M record. Has drawn wide and likely to go forward here. Has been up since Feb which is a bit of a concern, especially when going up in class and switching states, you wouldn’t think there was much more improvement to come. Seems to be a bit of speed here and suspect the race is going to get set up for something finishing hard, so happy to risk this one today. Passing. 7-BIANMICK is a tough rolling on pacer middle distance horse who is out of his comfort zone in this. Best form is on wetter tracks so would probably want the track to be the worse side of dead at least. Yet to place in 5 x 1st up runs, but they have usually been over shorter trips. Winner of recent barrier trial so looks like he could be fairly forward. His racing style often really upsets his rivals, if he doesn’t lead he often kicks for home mid race and makes them work a long, long way out. Outclassed in this, but might run better than expected. No. Summary: Back to Caulfield for yet another Lawrence – Liston Stakes and yes, yet another Turf Deli Spring Campaign. As always in this race, it is a matter of lining up the class horses coming back 1st up, versus the hard, fit and in form winter gallopers – and always want to consider race fit on pacers in this race. Normally the race is well stacked with stayers having a spring warm up run, which is why it pays to watch out for the race fit on pacers, but the trendy stables these days seem to leave it later and later into the spring to kick off for the staying types. Unusual to have the Melbourne Cup favourite up and going so early in the Spring, and according to the Racing Victoria website, apparently no horse has ever won the Liston Stakes and the Melbourne Cup in the same year. And Subzero in 1992 was the last horse to compete in the Liston and win the Melbourne Cup. And he was grey like 4-PUISSANCE DE LUNE is. Which, of course, means that grey horses who compete in both races have an excellent record. So a bit unusual this year, small field, very few genuine WFA horses – and lots of speed – not a traditional P.B Lawrence Stakes …. Liston Stakes at all. Pace here looks quite genuine with the (5) and (9) going forward and the (1), (2) and (6) all capable of positioning handy if required. Of course it all comes down to how forward the favourite 4-PUISSANCE DE LUNE is, but with the speed on, if he is anywhere near ready he should probably win. 1-SECOND EFFORT and 6-PAGO ROCK genuine dangers though, race fit, on speed and both in great form, so maybe look to have a little win bet on them if the favourite gets into silly odds. One to risk: 5-UNDER THE SUN 8th W=$10.90 Roughie: 8-HIGH ESTEEM The Key: How many days is it till the Melbourne Cup again? RESULTS: Favourite goes for an alarming betting drift, after opening around $2.40 gets out to a very healthy $3.40, which was probably more realistic odds, but also great value. Appreciates the early pace and whooshes through with barely an effort in a very impressive win. The Melbourne Cup is next week yeah? |
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