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Sportsbet are offering money back if your horse runs 2nd to PUSS ANTZ DA LOON (our pronounciation). |
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| CAULFIELD: LAWRENCE (LISTON) STAKES - 16th Aug 2014 |
| Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: CLOUDY - Rail: OUT 3M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Here we go again – Turf Deli Spring Campaign 2014. Cup Week always seems to come around so quickly every year, so enjoy these first few weeks before things get crazy. Weather is fine as it can be this time of year, with a few clouds around, but no rain forecast. Track is currently a DEAD(5) and should be on the better side of dead come race time. Rail is OUT 3M, last meeting here a few weeks back the rail was TRUE and the racing did favour those racing on pace on a extremely wet and miserable day. No reason why there should be any distinct racing pattern today, they should be able to run on OK in most races and suspect they might come of the rails a bit in the straight. Remember it is nine races for every Saturday metropolitan meeting now, and 30 mins between Race 1 and Race 2, and 35 mins between the rest of the races. Actually looks an OK program for a bet, think there might be a few at odds that get into the finish here and have put a few long shots in the selections. RESULTS: Track races evenly, though the on pacers do win most of the races. Few surprises in the 3YO races and there look to be a few with potential coming through. We miss the bleeding obvious in the feature race. Perfect punting hindsight is a great super power to have. BEST BET: Race 2: 1-BAGMAN $10 WIN 1st W=$2.60 = $26 Very little form in this race and really think this one should be favourite. He is the more genuine stayer and despite the big weight he should really win this and is one of the few in this race with any form. Rounded up a small field very nicely last start, and 2 starts back here he just got too far back in a leader dominated race, won by the (6). Odds of $2.80 is getting on the short side, but really should win. RESULTS: The good thing of the day gets home, does get a little more of a battle than expected, but outstays his rivals. BEST WIN: Race 7: 5-JABALI $10 WIN X These early 3YO races can be a little tricky, but usually the class horse shows through. And you can’t get much better form than this one, 2nd in a Maribyrnong Trial, 2nd in a Blue Diamond Prelude and 2nd in a Blue Diamond as a 2YO, before form tapered off in Sydney. Back to Caulfield here, dry track and best form is here and think he is likely to be too good for these fresh, and happy to back straight out at around $4.60. RESULTS: Really on form should have won this race, gets a perfect sit behind the speed, but does nothing. Quite disappointing. BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 6-ZAMORAR $5 WIN X QUINELLA: Race 8: 6-ZAMORAR, 2-PUISSANCE DE LUNE x $4 X QUINELLA: Race 8: 6-ZAMORAR # 5,9,10 x $6 X / 2nd 9-SPILLWAY W=$11.40, 3rd 10-GIG W=$9.10 Happy to back this one each way at around $8 in the feature race, looks the leader in a field of a lot of drop back 1st up horses. Will just be a matter if one with a bit more class runs over the top of him in the last 50M, but he should be in this race for a long way Back straight out, take the quinella with the favourite the 2-PUISSANCE DE LUNE, and then go a quinella again anchoring with the 5,9,10 which will pay well if something out of the expected happens. RESULTS: 6-ZAMORAR gets a soft lead, but is the first one beaten and is very disappointing. Definitely suspect at the 1400M and may even be better ridden cold and back in the field over sprint trips. BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 9-FLASH OF DOUBT $2.50 EW X Think this one is worth something each way at odds in the last race, especially if you need a get out. She is very consistent when she strikes form, and wasn’t far away at all at Flem two starts back when got crowded for room over the last 50M. Likes a fast speed, and a wet track and to be running on, but still OK on a dead track and has popped into the finish at few times at odds here. Drawn out, should get a clear crack at them and think they might be running on OK by the end of the day. Worth something each way at around $21. RESULTS: Plays up before the start, drops out to last and does nothing - very out of character run and happy to forgive. QUINELLA: Race 4: 9,10,12,13,14 boxed x $5 = 50% 2nd 12-CHARMED HARMONY W=$2.30 One of the more open races of the day and the quinella will pay well if the favourite the (12) misses out in the finish. Plenty of value runners down the bottom of this field, mainly the (13) and the (14), and although the (10) looks like he has not come up this time in, he may improve back on dry ground. Sure to be a nice quinella in this race so box them up and hope for a result. RESULTS: The various runners loom up at different times in the straight, but none are there on the line. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 2: 6-LORD DURANTE at around $2.25 2nd W=$3.10 Happy to take on the shortest priced favourite of the day here. There isn’t much depth or form in this field, and the dry track will suit him, hence the short odds. Won here last start by leading, when the track was playing towards on pacers. He stacked them up and just lasted over 1800M. Will try and do the same today, but think the 2000M is a real question mark for this one and good chance the (4) will pester him in the lead, and that one can over race and tear away sometimes. Regardless of all that think the (1) has his measure anyway, but the field falls away very quickly after those two. RESULTS: Fairly confident about this lay, but it really came down to the lay of the day versus the best bet of the day and this one did give a much better kick then expected and did make it hard work both for the winner, and for the poor tipsters watching the race. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. ALL UP x $5 PLACE Race 1: 1-LADY MELKSHAM PLACE Race 3: 7-MORANT 3rd P=$3.30 PLACE Race 8: 6-ZAMORAR PLACE Race 9: 9-FLASH OF DOUBT The more observant of you may have noticed we have tipped notorious non-winner 7-MORANT on top in Race 3. Totally madness, but his last two runs have been pretty good, the firmer track here is a big plus and his last “win” (when he looked the winner, and stopped and dead-heated) was this track and distance. There isn’t much speed in that race and he may be able to stalk the speed and put himself into the race and look like the winner – whether he actually wins is another matter all together. But he might be a good way to kick off a Poor Man’s Quaddie, by finding value place getters in 4 races. We have already mentioned 6-ZAMORAR and 9-FLASH OF DOUBT so we just need to find one other runner at OK place odds to add into the multiplication, so let’s go the (1) in the 1st race who is normally not far away. Current odds is around $210 for a $1 bet with Sportsbet, so by $5 that would be a very tidy way to kick off spring. RESULTS: As you would expect, 7-MORANT got the perfect trail into the race, loomed like the winner early in the straight - and was lucky to hold on for third. Still was a solid place bet for a multiple, but none of the others even got warm. SPENT: $50 RETURN: $26 NET: $-24 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 2-ATLANTIS DREAM, 6-TO BE HONEST, 1-LADY MELKSHAM Race 2: 1-BAGMAN, 8-REGALITI, 5-DE FINE LAGO Race 3: 7-MORANT, 4-FULGUR, 9-DIGITALISM Race 4: 9-ARE THERE ANY, 12-CHARMED HARMONY, 13-PRAESENTIA Race 5: 3-THIAMANDI, 8-HARD STRIDE, 2-PILLAR OF CREATION Race 6: 10-KALABEK, 6-ALL SEWN UP, 2-SUNSET ROCK Race 7: 5-JABALI, 6-NORDIC EMPIRE, 7-I AM THE GENERAL Race 8: 6-ZAMORAR, 2-PUISSANCE DE LUNE, 9-SPILLWAY Race 9: 2-GREGERS, 9-FLASH OF DOUBT, 3-YOU’RE SO GOOD. |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-ATLANTIS DREAM 6-TO BE HONEST 1-LADY MELKSHAM |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-BAGMAN 1st W=$2.60 8-REGALITI 5-DE FINE LAGO |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-MORANT 3rd W=$11.20 4-FULGUR 9-DIGITALISM |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-ARE THERE ANY 12-CHARMED HARMONY 2nd W=$2.30 13-PRAESENTIA |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-THIAMANDI 8-HARD STRIDE 1st W=$5.60 2-PILLAR OF CREATION |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-KALABEK 6-ALL SEWN UP 2-SUNSET ROCK |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-JABALI 6-NORDIC EMPIRE 7-I AM THE GENERAL |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-ZAMORAR 2-PUISSANCE DE LUNE 9-SPILLWAY 2nd W=$11.40 |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-GREGERS 1st W=$1.70 9-FLASH OF DOUBT 3-YOU’RE SO GOOD. |
| RACE 8: P.B. LAWRENCE (LISTON STAKES) GROUP 2 1400M WFA |
| Tips: 6-ZAMORAR 2-PUISSANCE DE LUNE 9-SPILLWAY 2nd W=$11.40 |
| Others: 5, 10 Pace: SLOW Leaders : 6-ZAMORAR Handy : 2-PUISSANCE DE LUNE, 3-BRAMBLES, 8-STAR ROLLING Back : 1-FORETELLER, 4-KINCAPLE, 5-LIDARI, 7-EXCLUDED, 10-GIG, 9-SPILLWAY , 11-LET'S MAKE ADEAL Chances: 2-PUISSANCE DE LUNE won last year’s Melbourne Cup? Didn’t he? Oh wait, no, he was favourite for most of the year at silly odds, and didn’t even make the field. Oops. Very talented on his day and looked like he could be anything after dominant Cup Week win in 2012. Was set to star last spring, he won this race convincingly 1st up last year, coming off a fast speed to casually launch through the field with minimal effort. Rest of last spring was actually still pretty good even though he didn’t live up to the grand expectations, nothing wrong with Makybe Diva 2nd, was ridden back against normal pattern in the Underwood when leaders dominated, right in the finish in the Turnbull and then obviously wasn’t right in the Cox Plate. Been given a full year off and will appreciate any give in the ground. If he is anywhere near right he will have too much class for this lot, who are hardly awe-inspiring. Can sit not too far off speed if need be and shouldn’t be as affected by the lack of speed here as some. One to beat. 5-LIDARI can mix his form, but does have a lot of ability on his day. Surprised with 1st up win last spring here, and was then unlucky not to win the Dato Tan’ ,and picked up the Blamey on speed in the autumn. Can mix it up between dropping well back and racing on speed, so listen out for riding changes here, but you would think 1st up over 1400M he is more likely to drop back. He has a bit more versatility than many of these, and has proven himself at this level before so rates some sort of chance in this. Chance. 6-ZAMORAR is a come back galloper who has a lot of untapped potential. Had a touch of throat surgery and a bit of a face lift and a nip and tuck whilst he was in, and seems to have come back as good as ever. Two runs this time in have been excellent, flew home to chase down the leader 1st up over 1000M at Flemington, and then stuck on OK 2nd up when was getting tired over the last little bit last week. Ran 2nd in this race when leading in 2012 with very similar lead up form. Fitter for the 2 runs in, should have plenty of improvement to come, drawn barrier 1, there is very little speed in this and really he should get the run of the race. 1400M is probably as far as he wants. Looks way over the odds to us at $8 and think he represents a great each way bet as the fit, in form horse in a field that isn’t the strongest. Top pick. 9-SPILLWAY is one of the ubiquitous imports building a new life in Australia. Went through his 1st Australian preparation OK and showed he was on the right track with a win. You would think the 1400M and the slow pace here is going to be a big negative, but worth watching the market on this one, as often the overseas horses improve rapidly after their first Australian preparation. Isn’t up against that much here, and if they are running on OK guess he could produce an upset in this. Rough. 2nd W=$11.40 Place: 1-FORETELLER is a tough, proven and under rated, genuine WFA horse. Does seem to keep going around over the odds and we have had some good collects on him. Upset the (2) in the Makybe Diva Stakes last year when 2nd up, coming off a good 1st up run when he made good ground. 1st up today and his 1st up form isn’t hopeless, but just in general he tends to get back, need speed on and need distance. These early WFA races , with small fields are never run at a genuine speed and there is very little speed here again which is a big negative for him. Will run on OK, but place best. Place.4th W=$6.50 8-STAR ROLLING is only lightly raced and has a stack of potential and we might see him go onto bigger and better things this spring. Thereabouts in plenty of WFA races here over the Autumn, when rolling on the speed, though drawn out here, and 1st up over 1400M you would think he is likely to sit off them a bit in this. Form looks good through close 3rd to FIORENTE here in the Peter Young. Just needs to go up that extra level, sure he is probably capable of it, but he has had a bit of a spruik on him for a while and want to see him produce at this level before getting on. Rough chance. 1st W=$11.30 10-GIG is a super tough little mare who keeps poking her head into finishes all over the country. Has been in work now since March and coming up for her 11th start this time in. 1400M record is actually not too bad, and placed 5 from 6 starts here at Caulfield. Super effort here last start in the Bletchingly when ran off her feet early on, but finished on well to run 3rd. 1400M here today is much more suitable. At first glance you would say a big NO to her at this sort of level, but good 1400M form, coming off a WFA placing here 2 starts back, fit and in form against a field of mainly 1st uppers who are looking at targets later in the spring – actually think she is in the mix here. Lack of speed may be more the issue here and she will need a decent speed and them to be running on OK, but does rate some rough chance. Rough, but tending towards place. 3rd W=$9.10 Sacking: 3-BRAMBLES is a QLD Derby winner, who didn’t really set the world on fire with his winter form coming off a 2 year vacation. As a 3YO he did tend to race forward, so might go forward here fresh with not much speed in this. Hard to see him being competitive at WFA here and prefer to wait till he regains some of his old form. 4-KINCAPLE is a WA 9YO who did come from Victorian originally, but has been going along OK over West the last few years. Has been thereabouts in quite a few 2000M WFA races over there and rather ambitiously has pre-booked tickets for both the Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate. Doesn’t have a huge amount of opposition here and does have some ability so might not be that far off them, but likely to drop back 1st up and hard to see him stepping up again in class this spring. No 7-EXCLUDED is a former Williams stable horse who has gone to a new home in one of their frequent garage sales. Does have a tendency to start under the odds and has the claim to fame of being beaten at odds of $1.75, $1.80 and $2.40. Though will be interesting to see if he starts that short when racing for a new stable. Only had the 1 run since the end of 2012, and a full year off the scene and likely to need the hit out 1st up here. Drop back and run on horse who needs it further and with the speed on. Passing. 11-LET'S MAKE ADEAL is a talented stayer who has been competing at the highest level for some time, hence her wining strike rate is starting to look a little ordinary. Unlucky not to win the Hebert Power here last spring when almost fell 1st time out of the straight. This is probably a bit short for her 1st up, but will be interesting to see how she goes this spring and be good to get her into some winnable races. Leaving out today though. Summary: The dilemma that is faced at the start of every spring, do we go for the race fit, in form winter horses, or look to the class of the 1st uppers heading towards bigger spring targets. Fit, in form on speed horses can definitely pinch this race, and often there isn’t much pressure up front in smallish fields with plenty of back markers. Interesting to note looking back over the last 10 years or so most of the races have been won by class horses running on late, and hard finishers, though most of those were on rain affected tracks where they were coming off the rails. This year is fairly standard for this race, smallish field and it is hard to see there being much speed in this, probably, 6-ZAMORAR leading with 8-STAR ROLLING sitting off him, and 2-PUISSANCE DE LUNE not too far away, but hard to know where 5-LIDARI is likely to settle so be on the lookout for riding tactics. We are going to go for 6-ZAMORAR on top here, fitter for the 2 runs in and should get a very soft run on speed in this and think each way the $8 looks pretty good odds. 2-PUISSANCE DE LUNE obviously the one to beat, and if he is anywhere near right he will just win this, worth noting he was a noted betting drifter when cruising to a win in this race last year. Maybe 9-SPILLWAY as the smoky and the unknown and the imports do often go better in their 2nd preparations. And if you do win today, all you need to do is keep your punting form for the next 3 months till the Melbourne Cup. Easy. One to risk: 8-STAR ROLLING #RED 1st W=$11.30 Roughie: 10-GIG 3rd W=$9.10 The Key: On speed here can pinch this race. RESULTS: Not a great start to spring when the One To Risk wins the first feature race at double figure odds. We have to apologise, in hindsight we missed the bleeding obvious here. The form analysis was right, we were looking for a on pace, WFA proven 1400M horse and there was an obvious one there staring at us in the face at double figure odds - and we someone missed it. 9-SPILLWAY probably should have won, just got out a little too late. Wasn't overly impressed with the run of 2-PUISSANCE DE LUNE, funny how he won this race last year when a big market drifter, and well backed this year did nothing. Really liked the run of the 1-FORETELLER who always gets run off his feet 1st up, but was really good late and he is the one to follow coming out of this race. |
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