|CAULFIELD : LAWRENCE (LISTON) STAKES - 17th August 2019|
|Track: SOFT(5) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: OUT 10M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Been a cold, wet and windy few weeks in Melbourne but there is only a few showers forecast for the weekend and the forecast for Saturday is actually warm and sunny. Track is currently a SOFT(5), but may improve a little with the sunshine. Rail is out 10M, which is a long way out and quite unusual for this meeting, so keep a close eye on the racing pattern which may favour those on the speed and it may be hard for horses back in the field on the inside to get clear runs.
In the feature Lawrence (Liston) Stakes it’s the usual case with very few genuine WFA horses, little speed and most horses kicking off their spring campaigns so hard to know how forward they all are. Speed here is the 4-CLIFF’S EDGE leading easily, with the 1-HARTNELL, 11-MYSTIC JOURNEY sitting handy and the 5-FIFTY STARS getting a pretty good run on speed. All eyes will be on the 11-MYSTIC JOURNEY as the next big thing going for her 7th straight win and unlike most 3YO fillies coming into their 4 year old season we have seen her race in open company and win in the All Star Mile. Like that she has had had two barrier trial wins coming into this so that suggests she should be relatively forward, and you would think she would be able to settle on speed here over 1400M in this field. Not sure she is a betting proposition though at even money, first up at 1400M and first time at WFA. The 1-HARTNELL really is an old marvel, and his fresh and Caulfield 1400M form is outstanding – 3rd in a Futurity (2nd up) this year, 2nd in the Lawrence 1st up last spring, won the C.F.Orr 1st up last year and won this race 1st up in 2017, and this race is probably easier than most of those runnings. Very wary of the leader, the 4-CLIFF’S EDGE, with not much pressure up front, he stuck on OK here last start and has race fitness on most of these, the money came for him last time and suspect that might happen again. Definitely have a saver on him if you are backing something else in the field. The 9-KENEDNA seems to be a different horse now and capable of the blow out, and the best roughie for exotics is actually the 6-SIKANDARBAD who was going well last preparation and might improve further this spring.
Actually not quite sure where to go with this race, there is a temptation to take 11-MYSTIC JOURNEY on here at the short odds, and have to respect 1-HARTNELL as the WFA warrior. But it comes down to which horse we want to back, rather than which horse we want to tip to be safe, and actually think that is the 4-CLIFF’S EDGE each way. If he is ridden to a clear lead here he is going to be very hard to beat, especially if the track is favouring those on speed. Leaders can often pinch these early WFA races and suspect he may have been set to try and grab an early spring scalp so plan to back him to win and more to place.
The rest of the program actually looks like a pretty good betting program and we are very keen to have a bet, especially if we have got the racing pattern correct. Unfortunately due to the wonders of the imported stayer trend we also have to put up with races like Race 3, a field of 11 with 6 overseas stayers first up. Groan. That will get the punters interested. There isn’t a huge amount of value over the day, but quite a few confident bets around the $8 mark.
BEST WIN : Race 5: 7-EXCESS FUNDS $5 WIN
BEST WIN : Race 5: 5-CONDO’S EXPRESS $2 WIN
These early 3YO races are always keenly contested betting affairs and its hard to line up who is going to come back the best. However, we are pretty keen that one of these two runners will win the Vain. The 7-EXCESS FUNDS has been racing well, normally caught out in the middle of the track and you just get the impression he is going to improve rapidly now he has had a few starts. Should be able to sit outside the leader here and go for home at the right time. The 5-CONDO’S EXPRESS was soft winning at MV last start, did have all the cover in the run, but more likely to jump and run and lead here and might take running down. Keen to back these two straight out at around $6 and $9.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 6-PAINT THE TOWN TWO $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 6-PAINT THE TOWN TWO, 5-RAT WITH GOLDTOOTH x $2 = 200%
Has been racing very consistently and worked home well last start after the winner had pinched a break and kicked for home. Hard and fit and in form, with apprentice claim and should sit right on the speed and have every chance. Looks a good each way bet at around $9 and save on a quinella with the favourite the (5) who looks like he will appreciate the extra distance today.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 11-EL QUESTRO $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 11-EL QUESTRO, 6-AGE OF CHIVALRY x $2 = 200%
Another who has been racing very well, hopelessly held up for runs 2 starts back and then loomed up like the winner down the middle of the track facing the breeze last start, but one darted through on the rails with a cosy run. Drawn wide, and much of the speed has been scratched with the (7) and (12) out, but there should be enough speed here to allow her to run on late. The $11 each way on offer does look generous. The main danger is the 6-AGE OF CHIVALRY, who is a very good horse on the rise and one we want to follow this spring, does go forward and better in here now some of the speed up front has gone, so save on a quinella with the short priced favourite as well.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 5-ABSOLUTE FLIRT $4 EW
This one was quite unlucky last start at MV when held up for runs and only got out late, and meets all those from that race much better on weights here. Ran in quality races as a 2YO, and although drawn wide should go forward here and sit on the speed. Each way at around $9 and expect this one may shorten come race time.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 5-EXCELTARA $2.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 1: 5,6,10,14,17 box x $5 = 50%
Pretty keen on this roughie in the first race. She dropped out the back 1st up at MV and ran on well late, and she is pretty good on her day. Does get stuck at the top of the weights here with claims all around her, but there seems to be a lot of speed here and that will suit her running on late, she just needs to get looping around them dropping back from an inside barrier. Keen to bet at around $13 and there is a lot of value in the quinella in a wide open race where the short priced favourite the 12-PIPPIE is going to get a lot of pressure up front and is vulnerable. So box a quinella with the value chances like the 10-GODODDIN, 6-FORBID ME NOT, 17-SUPLEX CITY and a random roughie the 14-DEFINIA who was great leading last start.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 1-TORYJOY at around $5
In form Sydney front runner who prefers wet ground and looks like this track is going to dry out. Shouldn’t get much pressure up front, but carrying 5kgs more than most of the field here and think will just find one other too strong. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a nation building program
$5 ALL UP
PLACE: Race 2: 6-PAINT THE TOWN TWO
PLACE: Race 4: 11-EL QUESTRO
PLACE: Race 7: 1-FUNDAMENTALIST
PLACE: Race 8: 4-CLIFF’S EDGE
Let’s kick off spring with a Poor Man’s Quaddie, focussing mainly on leaders which we think may be the racing pattern. The fit, on speed, lightly weighted 6-PAINT THE TOWN TWO will hopefully get us started in Race 2, and the place odds of $3 look very attractive about 11-EL QUESTRO in Race 4 running on late if the speed is on. The ultra consistent Race 7: 1-FUNDAMENTALIST has been racing in much better races than her opposition and more than happy to come home on the 4-CLIFF’S EDGE kicking out to a clear lead in the feature race. Looking at around $200 for a $5 outlay.
Race 1: 10-GODODDIN, 5-EXCELTARA, 6-FORBID ME NOT
Race 2: 6-PAINT THE TOWN TWO, 5-RAT WITH GOLDTOOTH, 2-BENITOITE
Race 3: 7-GUIZOT, 11-SNITZPEG, 8-BEAU BALMAIN
Race 4: 11-EL QUESTRO, 6-AGE OF CHIVALRY, 3-SHOT OF IRISH
Race 5: 7-EXCESS FUNDS, 5-CONDO’S EXPRESS, 2-BIVOUAC
Race 6: 5-ABSOLUTE FLIRT, 1-LYRE, 3-BELLA ROSA
Race 7: 1-FUNDAMENTALIST, 9-BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER, 7-BEHEMOTH
Race 8: 4-CLIFF’S EDGE, 11-MYSTIC JOURNEY, 1-HARTNELL
Race 9: 6-MISS IANO, 3-CRACK THE CODE, 8-MISS NORWAY