|CAULFIELD: LAWRENCE STAKES - 15th August 2020|
|Track: SOFT(6) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 10M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
We kick off Spring Campaign 2020 in the traditional way with a visit to Caulfield for the Lawrence (Liston) Stakes. Track is currently a SOFT(6) with the rail OUT 9M, and there is a bit of rain forecast over Friday and Saturday, but not a huge amount if the BOM has got it right. Last meeting here the rail was OUT 5M and the racing pattern did favour those on-speed, but with a bit of rain about and the rail going out again we should get an even racing pattern.
If you have been following our tips the last two years, you can probably skip past the next two paragraphs here and already guess what we are going to tip in the feature race today. The speed in the feature race looks pretty genuine, which is a bit unusual for these early feature WFA races, with the 3-STREETS OF AVALON, 6-SIRCCONI, 7-MORRISSY likely to go forward and the 8-MYSTIC JOURNEY and 10-SAVATIANO getting a perfect sit just behind the speed here. Also note that of the first up horses, the interstate visitors, such as 8-MYSTIC JOURNEY, 5-CASCADIAN and 10-SAVITIANO have had the advantage of having a barrier trial, which the Victorian horses are not allowed to do due to covid restrictions and we have been largely avoiding 1st up horses the last few months with changed training schedules to contend with. Despite the genuine speed, these early WFA races are rarely run at a frantic tempo with a lot of drop back horses kicking off with a warm up run, and we are happy to go around most of the first up horses in this for that reason, although would be wise to watch the market moves.
Going through the main chances, the 1-REGAL POWER will drop back and is looking for further, the 3-STREET OF AVALON has sensational track and distance stats, placed 11/17 at Caulfield, and 11/15 over 1400M and he has obviously been set for the Lawrence and Memsie as a tough, fit on-pace horse trying to grab some early WFA races. He was well supported first up and normally actually takes a run or two each time in to find best, but his first up run was really good, and suspect he is going to be more forward than most of them here. The rain heading into the weekend is a concern though, he is definitely better on top of the ground and would prefer the track to be the better side of soft going. Wary of the 5-CASCADIAN who has a sensational finishing burst, is proven on wet ground and was scratched from a race in Sydney last weekend for this and is one who we havenít seen the best of and will go on this spring. The 7-MORRISSY is best on dry ground and ridden forward, crucial jockey tactic error two starts back and then easy win on on-pacers track here last start Ė just the 1400M is as far as he wants and think a wet track, WFA and bit of pressure up front brings him unstuck here. The 8-MYSTIC JOURNEY won this race first up last year before not living up to the hype later in the spring, on her best form she would win this, she has only raced once since last October though and would prefer to see how she comes back before getting on with any confidence. The 9-ARCARDIA QUEEN might have the class to win this 1st up, wet track the unknown, had had a very long spell, and she will probably be well supported in betting and not sure she represents value. We are very, very wary of the 10-SAVITIANO who on her day is an extremely good horse, coming off a barrier trial win, and she has excellent wet track form, and looks to jump and sit behind the speed here and that is how she runs her best races.
So you have probably skipped the last two paragraphs now and realised we have put old favourite 3-STREETS OF AVALON on top. We have been consistently backing and tipping him for two years now, and he is just so honest and reliable and these early WFA races look ideal, there is a bit of early pressure up front here and the wet track does have us worried, but we have to stick with him. They might take a sit here just behind the two leaders and he will present at the right time in the straight and that first up run was actually a lot better than we thought he would go so he might be more forward this time in. We are playing punting favourites a bit though and to be honest if we were looking at the form objectively we would be probably be putting the 10-SAVITIANO on top who loves it wet and loves box seating on the speed. Wary of the class first up horses like the 8-MYSTIC JOURNEY, and 9-ARCARDIA QUEEN but donít think either represent value and the best value and roughie is definitely the 5-CASCADIAN who we suspect might fly home late here out wide so he goes in for third. Betting strategy is to back the 3-STREETS OF AVALON each way at around $8 and box up a quinella on the three selections.
Strange program to kick off the spring, plenty of good horses resuming but also fairly small fields and we have a string of $2.50 favourites in most events. Hard to get too enthused as there doesnít seem to be much value around, but these will be keen betting races at least. We appreciate everyone has different financial circumstances in these troubled times, so stay home, stay safe and bet responsibly.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 5-STREET ICON $5 EW
Sprinter who has always shown a lot of potential. Looked really promising early on in career then had a dud preparation this time last year, but really hit form over the Autumn and showed her true ability. Does drop back and fly home late but long shot run here in April, and run in the Group 1 Goodwood were both excellent. Looks well in with a claim here, and although she will give them a start and needs the speed on, small field means she can hook out and run over the top of them. Suspect she is going to go on this spring. Each way at around $6.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 6-EUPHORIC SUMMER $3 EW
Everyone was focussed on the winner from the race in Adelaide last start, but this one ran extremely well as well. She got bumped after the start, ended up at the back of the field, was caught inside another runner and had to make a sharp right hand turn to swing out and run on late in clear ground. Was a pretty solid effort. This is an even field, but she can position more forward this week from a good barrier and she should be fitter for the 3 runs. Has race fitness over many of these. Happy to back her on the last run at around $15.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 8-BUMPER BLAST $5 EW
You do wonder what punters are thinking sometimes. This one has always had ability and some hype, and started $2.20, $2.90, $3, $2.90, $3.50 before a spell, winning three times, and comes back and we let him go around at $10 1st up!? Impressive winner 1st up and he has a stack of ability, will drop back and need them to be running on and winning but just back him on ability to overcome that. Each way at around $4.50
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 3-STREETS OF AVALON $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 3-STREETS OF AVALON, 10-SAVATIANO, 5-CASCADIAN boxed x $3 = 100%
Tough, consistent on-pacer with excellent 1400M and Caulfield stats, and impressed with his first up run which suggested he is pretty forward for these early WFA races. The rain is the issue, but as long as the track stays the good side of SOFT we should be OK and he will go forward and either sit outside the leader or just off them here. Race fitness on his side and may be more forward than many of his rivals so looks a solid each way bet at around $8. Save on the box quinella with the talented wet tracker the 10-SAVATIANO and the value 5-CASCADIAN who will be flying home late.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 8-THE CRUISER $2 EW
Lots of hype 3YOs in this race, but actually thought this one went pretty well 1st up at MV, it was a leaderís track, and he hit the line hard and in a workman like manner. Likely to sit off them here and should have plenty of improvement to come off that, so thin he is over the odds at $21.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 10-TITAN BLINDERS $2 EW
This race features the super hyped 4-SHOWMANSHIP going around at $2 in a field of $15 and whilst he has a stack of ability hard to see him a betting proposition. It also means we are getting great odds about a stack of pretty good horses so prefer to play with others. The (10) is a talented type who we havenít seen the best of, and he was a bit unlucky not to win at MV 1st up when had to really force his way out for a run on the turn. He has a strong finishing burst and will be suited swooping out wide late in the day from an outside barrier if that is the racing pattern. Wet track is a little worry, but happy to have something each way at around $11 to end the day.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 6-HYDRO STAR at around $3
The long awaited return of the Lay of the Day. Horse with some hype about him and impressive winner at first start, but he did do a few things wrong. Up against a class sprinter in the 3-RULERSHIP and just think the odds reflect the potential rather than the form so donít seem value and happy to risk today.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough to take an overseas luxury holiday
$5 ALL UP
PLACE: Race 1: 2-MOSCOW RED
PLACE: Race 6: 6-EUPHORIC SUMMER
PLACE: Race 7: 9-SHE SHAO FLY
PLACE: Race 8: 3-STREETS OF AVALON
Small fields so a Poor Manís Quaddie might be the way to go. We are going to tempt fate in the first leg with the super consistent Race 1: 2-MOSCOW RED as there are only two place dividends, roll into the value runner Race 6: 6-EUPHORIC SUMMER, the Race 7: 9-SHE SHAO FLY ran on well late start and might do the same again, and letís put our faith in old favourite Turf Deli pin up horse the Race 8: 3-STREETS OF AVALON to bring us home in the feature race. Looking at round $450 for a $5 outlay to kick us off for the spring.
Race 1: 2-MOSCOW RED, 5-RUBY SKYE, 1-SOVEREIGN AWARD
Race 2: 4-A GOOD YARN, 5-FIGHT, 8-PROPELLE
Race 3: 5-STREET ICON, 4-SHEíS A THIEF, 2-OUR CAMPANA
Race 4: 9-FIRSTCLASS DREAMER, 2-PLEIN CIEL, 8-THINK WEíRE DUE
Race 5: 3-RULERSHIP, 2-LARIMER STREET, 8-THE CRUISER
Race 6: 6-EUPHORIC SUMMER, 3-PARLOPHONE, 5-BELLA NIPOTINA
Race 7: 8-BUMPER BLAST, 2-VIRIDINE, 9-SHE SHAO FLY
Race 8: 3-STREETS OF AVALON, 10-SAVATIANO, 5-CASCADIAN
Race 9: 10-TITAN BLINDERS, 4-SHOWMANSHIP, 12-LEFT HAND MAN