|CAULFIELD: LAWRENCE (LISTON) STAKES Ė 14th August 2021|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: OUT 8M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
We are back for Turf Deli Spring Campaign 2021! This means feature race previews, tips and suggested bets will be out Friday afternoon on social media and the website.
We have a firm track and warm sunny weather heading into race day which is pretty unusual for these early Spring meetings which are normally rain affected. Rail is OUT 8M, which is a fairly wide rail placement and with warm weather and little wind the racing pattern should favour those racing on speed, especially with lots of small fields.
In the feature Lawrence (Liston) Stakes, the traditional spring kick off, we have a small field and not much in the way of spring stayers heading for later glory. The speed here looks to be genuine with the 9-DO YOU RECKON leading, the 6-RED CAN MAN crossing from the outside barrier, the 2-STREETS OF AVALON and the 7-SANSOM just off these and the 5-ARCHEDEMUS and 1-BEST OF DAYS behind these and there does seem to be genuine speed here for an early spring WFA race.
Going through the field, the 1-BEST OF DAYS is pretty good on his day, but is one we struggle to catch. Last spring he was dropping well back in the field and not racing that well, last summer he switched to racing handy and raced in much better form including an Australian Cup second. Firm track is a big plus for him and you would think with Kah on board they go forward here and he is proven at this level. His first up form isnít the best though and his Caulfield track and distance form is shocking so happy to risk him today. The 2-STREETS OF AVALON is a tough, proven, WFA on-pace dry tracker and really this race looks ideal for him today. Excellent track and distance stats, and his 1st up run here was excellent on-speed into the wind on a day that it was really difficult to lead and win. He fought out the finish strongly to only just get beaten, and form from that race has held up. Looks the one to beat and clear top pick, question will just be if he stays at a backable price. The 3-ANGEL OF TRUTH is a wet track stayer kicking off his spring campaign and will need further. The 4-SUPERSTORM is a very classy WA visitor, who put in a huge run in the All Star Mile here last year. Wasnít disgraced at the top level last spring, has had close to a full year off though so would have to watch market to see how forward he is 1st up. Dry track and small field suits and has the class to run over them here if right and if the racing pattern allows.
The 5-ARCHEDEMUS is an on-pace dry tracker with a good win strike rate, and he ran extremely well here 1st up last year when he was pressured in the lead and stuck on well. Recent barrier trial win so should be forward enough for this, and from a wide barrier he should settle just behind the speed here. Actually think he is well over the odds at around $27 and the best rough chance in this race. The 6-RED CAN MAN will go forward from the outside barrier and has been racing consistently over winter. Dry track is very important for this one and really he wasnít very far away from these at all on an unsuitable wet track here back in the Bletchingly Stakes. He fought hard last start and should be thereabouts, just wonder if at 1400M and WFA and having to work early to go to the lead leaves him vulnerable today. The 7-SANSOM went around at ridiculous odds here last start and did get the run of the race in a bunched finish, dry track suits and another who sits on speed. Slight query over him at the 1400M, his only win at Flemington he got to lead and slow the race right down, today he will be sitting handy with a few others off a genuine tempo. Has returned well though so hard to rule out. The 8-NONCONFORMIST has always been knocking on the door of the top level staying events and may go up to that level this spring. He can sit off the speed here and run on late, question is how forward he is 1st up with later spring targets in mind, but he is good value for exotics running on into the placings. The 9-DO YOU RECKON is another on-pacer with no form who is outclassed at this level and prefers it wet. The 10-SIERRA SUE has ability but is hard to catch, loomed up like the winner two starts back at Flemington and suited by the run on pattern at Mildura. She is probably better with some give in the ground and not sure about her at this level.
Pretty genuine tempo for an early WFA race and quite a few race fit on-pace 1400m horses. The 2-STREETS OF AVALON looks a clear top pick here, proven at this level, can handle the pressure up front on speed, excellent tough run there last start and the firm track today is a massive plus. Definitely the one to beat. We are wary of the talented 4-SUPERSTORM 1st up, despite having a year off, has a ton of class on his side and watch the betting market to see how forward he is but looks the main danger. The 7-SANSOM in for third, be interesting to see if he can run out a strong 1400M off a genuine tempo today, but have to respect the last start win and the great career strike rate. Best rough is the 5-ARCHEDEMUS who looks over the odds for a horse with a pretty good career record who can settle on-speed and give himself every chance. Betting plan is to have a solid win bet on the top pick 2-STREETS OF AVALON and play with some first fours with the top two chances in the finish and the likes of 5-ARCHEDEMUS and 8-NONCONFORMIST running into the placings for value.
Pretty small fields for a spring kick off and not a huge amount of value around today so will be conservative on the punt. Special call out to Race 3 2-HIGH COST 9YO with QLD picnic form having his 104th race start and 1st at Caulfield! We are back in lockdown again, so bet responsibly, stay home and enjoy punting on the couch for the afternoon.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 3-INFLUENTIAL GIRL $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 1: 3-INFLUENTIAL GIRL#6-KISS AND CRY, 7-LEALE, 9-HORSE FOR HIGHER x $3 = 100%
Tricky race to kick off the day. There seems to be plenty of speed from the likes of 5-SO YOU ASSUME, 7-LEALE, 9-HORSE FOR HIGHER, but just wonder if that will set the race up for something proven over further. The 3-INFLUENTIAL GIRL actually has a fair bit of ability and probably should have a better career record, definite improvement back on firm ground last start and will be suited if they can run on late and win. Each way at around $8 and anchor in quinella with the lightly weighted 7-LEALE who might be hard to run down rail out and first look of the track, the 9-HORSE FOR HIGHER on-speed and the 6-KISS AND CRY who couldnít get a clear run at them last start when making ground on the rails at MV.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 2-ABSOLUTE FLIRT $4 EW
Talented sprinter on her day, but have to be honest we struggle to catch her. She is a sit and sprint type with a class turn of foot, but doesnít always have the best of luck in her races. Last start here in a small field she had to drop back and come around runners at a crucial stage and that probably cost her the race. Small field and a sit here suits and does have pretty decent track and distance stats. Each way at around $6.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 9-ZOU DANCER $4 EW
Rapidly improved and showed some devastating form back at the start of the year, winning a Flemington feature race extremely impressively. Had a decent break and solid showing 1st up, on-speed into the wind from a wide barrier in a race that favoured those swooping late. Back to a firm track here is a big plus, drawn barrier 1 and can lead if need be and suspect she is going to step up today and show her ability. Each way at around $6.
QUINELLA: Race 3: 8-DIAMONDS IN THE SKY#11-ROLLS, 9-DIRTY THOUGHTS x $5 = 250%
The 8-DIAMONDS IN THE SKY looks the one to beat here, leader, barrier 1, won 2 of 3 here and tough run last start leading into the wind in a swoopers race. Firm track suits and looks the leader here and might just jump and run and that will be the end of that. Odds of around $5, so letís look for some value in the quinella with the 11-ROLLS who we assume goes forward today from a good barrier and the 9-DIRTY THOUGHTS on-speed and fitter for the two runs in.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 15-ROCK IN THE PARK $4 EW
Looks one of the better value bets of the day. Extremely impressive win at Sandown 1st up at odds on a heavy track and then ridden forward last start from an inside barrier in a race where the first two out were the first two home and fought on well. Up in distance should suit, and better suited taking a sit and swooping around them as long as the racing pattern allows. Might have untapped talent and be one on the improve, so the $14 on offer looks quite attractive in a field with a lack of form.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 12-DUCHY OF SAVOY $2.50 EW
The Quezette for the fillies looks a much more open race than the Vain and probably our best chance today of a long shot winner. This one was good last start when was winding up and coming home late on a track that was favouring those on-speed and looks suited up in distance to the 1200M. Nice rough chance at around $25.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough to buy 25 million vaccine doses, pronto.
FIRST FOUR Race 8: 2,4 / 2,4 / 5,7,8 / 1,5,7,8,10 = 10.42%
FIRST FOUR Race 8: 2,4 / 5,7,8 / 2,4 / 1,5,7,8,10 = 10.42%
In the feature race the 2-STREETS OF AVALON looks the one to beat with the 4-SUPERSTORM the main danger, but suspect something of the likes of 5-ARCHEDEMUS or 8-NONCONFORMIST will run into the finish at odds and hopefully set us up for a decent first four dividend. So take the two main chances to fill the placings and hope for some value place chances.
Races 6,7,8,9: 1,3,6 / 1,3,4,7,9,11,12 / 2,4 / 3,7,9 x $20 = 15.87%
Looks a pretty skinny quaddie and unlikely to be much of a dividend. In the first leg one of the two class horses probably wins, the 1-GENERAL BEAU, 3-INGRATIATING but throw in the 6-DIRECT just in case. The second leg is wide open and hope for a result with something like the 12-DUCHY OF SAVOY and hard to see anything outside of the 2-STREETS OF AVALON, 4-SUPERSTORM winning the feature race. One of the three main chances 9-ZOU DANCER, 7-LA MEXICANA, 3-AWAY GAME probably wins the last as well so really need some value to appear in that second leg for a decent dividend.
Race 1: 3-INFLUENTIAL GIRL, 7-LEALE, 9-HORSE FOR HIGHER
Race 2: 4-HI STRANGER, 5-NO EFFORT, 6-BARADE
Race 3: 8-DIAMONDS IN THE SKY, 11-ROLLS, 9-DIRTY THOUGHTS
Race 4: 2-ABSOLUTE FLIRT, 3-BELLA NIPOTINA, 8-PARLOPHONE
Race 5: 15-ROCK IN THE PARK, 4-IMPERIAL LAD, 5-JUMBO OZAKI
Race 6: 1-GENERAL BEAU, 3-INGRATIATING, 6-DIRECT
Race 7: 12-DUCHY OF SAVOY, 4-NAJMATY, 7-GIMMIE PAR
Race 8: 2-STREETS OF AVALON, 4-SUPERSTORM, 7-SANSOM
Race 9: 9-ZOU DANCER, 7-LA MEXICANA, 3-AWAY GAME