|CAULFIELD: LAWRENCE (LISTON) STAKES - 13th August 2022|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 9M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Welcome to Turf Deli Spring Campaign 2022.
Track is currently a GOOD(4), but there are frequent showers forecast for Friday and Saturday so we are doing the form for a SOFT(5) and probably worse side of that and deteriorating during the program. Rail is OUT 9M, out from 6M last meeting and expect the inside may be the worse ground and they may be coming off the rails in the straight which will give the runners on their chance (thatís if a considerable amount of rain comes). Officially spring may be some time off, but for punters itís time to start following the form and we are getting a lot of good horses back today.
For the feature Lawrence (Liston) Stakes) we are expecting the track to have chopped up by now and for them to be coming off the rails. Small field, but the speed actually looks genuine here as we know the 5-BUFFALO RIVER loves to burn out to a long lead, with the 3-STREETS OF AVALON and 6-AYSAR sitting behind him and the 8-ELEPLANT next in the running.
Going through the runners the 1-REGAL POWER won the All Star Mile here in Autumn 2020 and then didnít go on with it that spring, before having a break and getting back to form over in WA. Suspect he probably wants a firm track and market is suggesting they want to see him go around 1st up and see how he goes. The 2-MR BRIGHTSIDE was an absolute sensation last spring winning six races in a row and then not beaten fair in a Group 1 feature mile, before coming back in the Autumn and being competitive in all his races and snaring a light weight Doncaster win. Handles it wet, probably still has a lot of upside and he is probably better than these, market will tell how forward he is first up but you would think he has the class to win this. The 3-STREETS OF AVALON is a track and distance specialist, interestingly last few years he has ran well 1st up and then disappointed in the Lawrence and the Memsie (went around $3.50 fav in this race last year), this year he struggled in the wet ground in the Bletchingly first up. Would need the track to stay firm, and for whatever reason he hasnít shown his best in these races in previous years. The 4-SCALLOPINI fought the finish out strongly here last start to just miss, handles it wet and has excellent distance stats. Might have a fitness edge on many of these and likely to be in the finish and like that he is strong at the end of his races off a likely fast tempo here.
The 5-BUFFALO RIVER is known for racing out to extensive leads, loves it wet and pretty surprised he hasnít pinched more races with his daring tactics. Has won a jump out and this is exactly the sort of race he could pinch fresh as he can run them off their legs here and has excellent distance stats. The 6-AYSAR is highly erratic and hard to follow, but can win a good race on his day and will probably cause an upset in something during the spring, does prefer it dry and not sure the tear away speed here suits as he likes to roll on-speed as well. The 8-ELEPHANT was an impressive winner here 1st up this track and distance last spring, has only raced once this year so might need the run and keep an eye on the market. The 9-UNCLE BYRN is the X factor in this race, showed some potential and promise in weaker races in first Australian preparation and very interesting that they have gone to this race first-up which suggests they think he has ability. Would have thought they would work him through weaker races though? He will be finishing on strongly and will be suited if the (5) tears away in the lead so is capable of the upset here.
This doesnít look a great punting race, but think we have to go the 4-SCALLOPINI on top here, suited off a likely fast speed and with race fitness on his side, from the classy 2-MR BRIGHTSIDE who is the best horse in the field, just a matter of how forward he is first up, and always wary that the 5-BUFFALO RIVER will pinch a race one day tearing to the lead and his chances increase the more rain that comes. Best roughie is the 9-UNCLE BYRN as the unknown. From a punting point of view just an interest win bet straight out on the top pick 4-SCALLOPINI and a saver on the 5-BUFFALO RIVER who we are warming to in this race.
BEST BET: Race 4: 5-I AM BENE $7 WIN
One we are following and looks like she may be going places this spring. Flying through her grades over in Adelaide in first preparation and ran on well late 1st up and looks ready to do something today. SCR from a weaker race in Adelaide today (also from a heavy track) for this and looks to be a sprinter on the rise who should run over the top of them late here. Confident bet straight out at around $4 and also taking a First Four in the Turf Deli Wonder Bet.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 1-SEMILLION $5 EW
Showed a lot of talent in his 2YO season and was tough on-speed here in the Blue Diamond in a swoopers race and then a super tough win in Sydney on a heavy track. Up against a lot of spruik horses in this showing untapped ability, but he has proven himself at a higher level and shown he can go forward here in a small field and really tough out a finish. Each way at around $6.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 1-MISS ROSEIANO $5 EW
Similar to the previous bet in the colts and geldings race, she showed she was tough and had talent in her earlier 2YO races. Had a tough run on-speed in the Blue Diamond and usually in this race you want to back the class filly resuming. Had two jumps out so should be forward for this and drawn wide means she can race on-speed and stay out of trouble. Might be tougher than these. Each way at around $8.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 13-TAMERLANE $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 9: 13-TAMERLANE#3,8,14,16 x $2 = 50%
Very open field in the last race but assuming the track will be cut up and they will be running on out wide. This one is drawn wide and can race handy but there doesnít seem to be that much speed here and he can get to the best part of the track first. Fitter for the two runs in, and you always seem to get good odds about horses coming off fair Flemington straight track races, he may be better around the bend. Maybe just a slight query at the end of 1400M but most happy to take the $15 to find out. Back each way, and value quinella here with the flying emergency the 16-EL ROCKO (emerg), the very consistent 3-POLANCO, the fit wet tracker 8-NERONE, and suspect the 14-INCREDULOUS DREAM may run a race at odds here from a good barrier on-speed in race with little pressure up front.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 6-MISS CHARLIE BROWN $2 EW
Taking this one on trust a bit as we donít really know much about her, but Tassie form always seems to be under-rated and their fit and in form visitors can often run well. Should be ready to do something with the two runs in and much fitter for the 1600M run last start and will race on-speed behind the 10-WRITE THE SCORE and may stick on into the finish at around $41.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 6-MEGAMEA $ 2 EW
One that has been going through her classes extremely well and hits a small field here back in distance from 1400M to 1100, which should let her sit off them and swoop around them late. Probably better over further, but is just racing so well and improving every start, and this field really isnít strong at all away from the favourite the 4-SHEíS ALL CLASS. We are getting $12 here about a horse that has won two of her last three at metro level in a field of 7 so definitely worth a bet.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 5-ALPHA ONE at around $3
Super impressive winner last start and normally we donít take on horse in form but sometime MV form can be a little flattering and not sure he beat that much there. Out to the 1100M today where he has failed three times before and just wonder if he gets pressured up front here by the 1-SEMILLION whether he comes unstuck at the end of the race. Also had raced erratically before and Caulfield can often bring Sydney horses undone. There are a few pretty good horses in this race in the 1-SEMILLION, 6-GIGA KICK, 4-THRON BONE and suspect one of them will get the better of him.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a Caulfield racecourse apartment.
FIRST FOUR: Race 4: 5, 10 / 5,10 /1,6,9,12/ 1,2,3,4,6,9,12 x $5 = 10.42%
We are pretty keen on the Adelaide visitor 5-I AM BENE in this race, but suspect the 10-SOOBOOMA runs a race here back to the 1200M for the first time since his long shot upset win here and he has been running on well in this race in between. So letís take a First Four with them to fight out the finish, and value runners like the good roughie 12-RUMBLED AGAIN and 9-IMPERIAL HILTON to get into the finish and we should be looking at a pretty decent First Four dividend. You may want to spend the extra $5 and switch 2nd and 3rd slots around as well, but we want to keep the percentage over 10% on our limited budget.
Races 6,7,8,9: 1,7,10,12 / 2,3,11 / 2,4,5 / 3,8,13,14,16 x $20 = 11.11%
Tricky quaddie and we are going to need luck to get past the first leg and you probably want to throw 1-2 more in and follow what the market is doing. The middle two legs look pretty straight forward, we want to try and get the poor value favourite 11-UNCOMMON JAMES beaten in the second leg and make sure you put in the 5-BUFFALO RIVER for value in the feature race. The last leg is wide open so we should have some decent approximates if something away from the obvious gets up earlier in the day.
Race 1: 7-JIMMY THE BEAR, 6-CHIEF ALTONY, 4-SO SI BON
Race 2: 11-PITCHANUN, 5-PASSIONE, 6-MISS CHARLIE BROWN
Race 3: 4-SHEíS ALL CLASS, 6-MEGAMEA, 2-SCORCHED EARTH
Race 4: 5-I AM BENE, 10-SOOBOOMA, 6-INVINCIBLE JET
Race 5: 1-SEMILLION, 6-GIGA KICK, 4-THRON BONE
Race 6: 1-MISS ROSEIANO, 12-WALTZ ON BY, 7-LADY LAGUNA
Race 7: 2-SINAWANN, 11-UNCOMMON JAMES, 3-RANGES
Race 8: 4-SCALLOPINI, 2-MR BRIGHTSIDE, 5-BUFFALO RIVER
Race 9: 13-TAMERLANE, 16-EL ROCKO (emerg), 3-POLANCO, 14-INCREDULOUS DREAM