|CAULFIELD: LAWRENCE STAKES - 19th AUGUST 2023|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 9M|
| Betting Portfolio ($50): |
Lawrence (Liston) Stakes Day sees the start of the Turf Deli Spring Campaign 2023. The Betting Portfolio and the Lay of the Day will return, but at the moment tips and form wonít be out till Saturday morning. Tips and form are also available from the website via the link in the comments. Feature race preview at the end of this post.
Caulfield track is a GOOD(4) heading into Saturday with a few showers around so maybe just take the edge of the track and with the rail OUT 9M expect them to be coming off the rails later in the day and be running on and winning out wide. Big fields and looks to be some value today.
BEST WIN: Race 8: 1-LITTLE BROSE $7 WIN
We have been on this one in each of his wins and donít see any reason to drop off today. These early 3YO races invariably favour the class horses, he won the Blue Diamond (with a perfect run), but he does seem to get perfect runs most starts as he just lobs on speed and can avoid bad luck. Should be able to do the same today and despite winning the Blue Diamond seems rather under rated. Happy to back straight out at around $6.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 6-SAVANNAH CLOUD $5 EW QUINELLA 6#3,8,11 x $3 = 100%
Was super consistent last time in and seems to have struck a perfect race 1st up here. Placed 7 from 8 over the 1200M, strikes a field without that much depth here and a lot who are better off over further. Little speed here so listen for riding tactics but assume they go forward here and once he lands on-speed he is very hard to go pass. Confident each way bet at around $8 and this is the main bet of the day and anchor in a quinella with the consistent 3-ITSíOURTIME who might finally win a race at Caulfield, the 8-UMGAWA who the key seems to be racing on firm tracks and the consistent 11-WILLIAM THOMAS who almost caused a boilover against a smart one last start.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 15-ATTRITION $5 EW, QUINELLA 1,9,15,16 boxed x $3 = 50%
The 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE looks to have class on his rivals in the feature race, but it is a big field and these does look to be a lot of speed on, so think the $2 on offer is too short. Main danger is the 4YO 15-ATTRITION with plenty of upside, and suited sprinting down the middle of the track off a fast speed, but there are two great value roughies here in the 9-POUNDING who just keeps stepping up every time and the race fit in form 16-CHASSIS. Back the 15-ATTRITION each way at around $8 and should make a good box quinella if one of the value runners can get into the finish.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 10-REAL SENSATION $1.50 EW, QUINELLA: 3,4,6,10,12 boxed x $5 = 50%
This one is the rank outsider of the field, but donít think he is without a hope. Not too fussed about wide barrier as he does like to drop back and run on late, and often runs well in these sort of races without luck. Will need the speed on and for them to be running on and wining, but has gone well fresh before and was strong at end of barrier trial. Happy to have a dabble at a massive $81 and this looks a good value quinella race with the other long shots the 3-ROYAL MILE on-speed and the 12-PAPERBOY leading without much pressure.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 7-SHOW ROYALE $2 EW
This 3YO filly is unbeaten in two career starts and has a lot of upside. Stack of speed in this race from the (3), (5), (8), (10) and think we probably want to be on one that sits off them and comes around them wide in the straight and this one looks the most likely candidate. She actually beat home the 8-SHESALLSHENANIGANS and 10-TIZ ENUF last start over in Adelaide but is going around today at $20 and double the price of those which seems a bit silly. Rough chance.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 7: 3 CHARM STONE at around $3.50
Favourite in this field and one with a massive spruik on her, but her odds are mainly due to her potential and hasnít quite got to the level expected (yet). There isnít much between these, she will go forward and get caught up on a fast speed and doesnít look value in this to us. Risking.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough to run the Commonwealth Games.
TRIFECTA: Race 10: 12-JIMMY THE BEAR / 7,10,13 / 1,5,7,8,9,10,13,15,17 x $5 = 20.83%
We are keen on the 12-JIMMY THE BEAR to return to winning form this time in in the last race, going forward in a race full of back-marker stayers. Value chances are the 10-FRANKIE PINOT and 13-ULYSSES and basically any of the stayers could pull out a run 1st up and run into the placings so load up for a value trifecta.
Races 7,8,9,10: 5,7,8,10 / 1,2 / 1,9,15,16 / 7,9,10,12,13 x $20 = 12.5%
This looks a good value quaddie today with some big open fields. Good chance of a value winner in the first leg so maybe throw in one or two more at odds, we need to go narrow in the second leg on the two main horses in the market the 1-LITTLE BROSE, 2-CYLINDER. Take the main two chances in the feature along with two great value chances in the 9-POUNDING and 16-CHASSIS and come home with a few at value in an open last leg.
Feature race preview
Big field for the Lawrence (Liston) Stakes and often you want to watch out for those with race fitness or not being set for later spring targets who might get well fresh. There looks to be a very solid tempo for an early spring feature here, with the 10-BUFFALO RIVER who always likes to dash to a long lead, from the 18-EDISON the other leader, with the 3-TUVALU, 9-POUNDING, 15-ATTRITION, 16-CHASSIS likely to settle just behind these.
Runner by runner comments:
1-MR BRIGHTSIDE has a distinct class edge on these and won this race 1st up last year. Does have Cox Plate intentions so follow the market as to how forward he is first-up, and to be honest in a big field he probably drops back a little in the run here and the $2 on offer looks a little short. Definitely the one to beat, but wouldnít be surprised to see him go under today.
2-REGAL POWER has had injury levels and need to see before getting back on again after a long lay-off.
3-TUVALU is a classy on-speed type with good track and distance stats and would win this on his best form. Didnít quite show best last time in and has had an injury, but should be forward for this with a few trials in. Watch the market on this one will tell the story, just 1st up off an injury lay off and drawn wide maybe just want to see, but have to be wary of his ability.
4-AEGON has been racing at a high level around Australia, NZ and Hong Kong so needs to strike a winnable race, which he might here. Wide barrier in a big field likely to drop back and rough chance only.
5-WESTERN EMPIRE is well drawn and suited on a dry track, but has always been pretty safely held in his Melbourne runs (even if they have been at a high level). Prefer to see him genuinely fight out one of these races before getting on.
6-EL BODEGON is an international who came out for the Cox Plate last year and stuck around. This is well short of his best distance and likely to drop well back here, but keep an eye on the market as he might improve with a full year down under.
9-POUNDING is a super consistent type who kept stepping up last time to every challenge, resulting in an Australian Cup placing. Firm track is a big plus and hoping he is forward enough to go forward from a middle barrier and get a perfect run into the race. Still seems to be improving and wouldnít be surprised to see him run a race here and looks the best rough chance at around $25.
10-BUFFALO RIVER loves to dash out to a long lead, but just doesnít finish his races off and always weakens late. He will almost certainly pinch one of these races one day though. His track stats of placed 6/10 and distance placed 15/21 are actually pretty good, but he does seem to prefer a wet track. Drawn barrier 1 will lead clearly here, he did the same in this race last year and faded, but good value place chance for exotics.
11-PINSTRIPED has a pretty strong career record and hasnít always had the best of luck in his races and is well in the market here. Strong speed will suit and drawn well so probably wonít be far away and some chance.
12-UNCLE BRYN is a strong finisher who will enjoy the fast speed in this, but the 1400M is probably short of his best, but likely to be making good ground late.
13-FORGOT YOU sucked us in plenty of times in his 3YO year and has been mixing form and back from an injury lay off and canít have.
15-ATTRITION looks to be a smart 4YO on the rise and like that he settles just off the speed here and can sprint into the race down the middle of the track. He should have the turn of foot to be a factor here, against a big field with many looking for further and looks a strong each way chance at around $8.
16-CHASSIS is one to be wary of as the fit, in form, on-pacer and often these types can go well in the early spring features. SCR from the weaker race today for the Group 2 is a big plus and has been racing really well last few starts. A strong 1400M might just be a slightly query, but will camp just behind the speed here and good value rough chance in this.
17-DENY KNOWLEDGE is a good front running stayer but doubt they go forward today 1st up over 1400M and wait for later on.
18-EDISON caused a boil over leading and winning at long odds last start on a track that was favouring those on-speed. Unlikely to get the lead here again the (10) and doubt they will want to pressure that one, seems a bit step up to WFA in this. No
The 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE is definitely the one to beat here, but is too short in a big field so putting the 15-ATTRITION on top who appeals each way and the value runners are the 9-POUNDING and 16-CHASSIS. Value here in the exotics with the top two picks to win and the roughies to run a place.
Race 1: 10-MAGNETIC PRINCE, 2-FIRST MATE, 15-RIOTOUS MISCHIEF
Race 2: 6-BEOUR BAY, 3-TAJNEED, 1-LIFE LESSONS
Race 3: 12-CALICO JACK, 10-VA VIA, 14-STRIPPED BACK
Race 4: 4-WAVERIDER BUOY, 8-FLYING ON A LIMB, 7-DIAMONDS IN THE SKY
Race 5: 4-AMENABLE, 10-REAL SENSATION, 3-ROYAL MILE
Race 6: 6-SAVANNAH CLOUD, 3-ITSíOURTIME, 8-UMGAWA
Race 7: 8-SHESALLSHENANIGANS, 7-SHOW ROYALE, 5-SKIRT THE LAW
Race 8: 1-LITTLE BROSE, 2-CYLINDER, 7-VEECEE
Race 9: 15-ATTRITION, 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE, 9-POUNDING
Race 10: 12-JIMMY THE BEAR, 7-SIBAAQ, 10-FRANKIE PINOT