Tips, feature race preview and suggested bets for the Lawrence (Liston) Stakes 16/08/2025
We are kicking off Turf Deli Spring Campaign 2025, celebrating 25 years of Betting Portfolios, Lay Of the Day and Turf Deli Wonder Bet. Hoorah!
Rainy and cold heading into the weekend, with rain forecast for both Friday and Saturday and this track should come up firmly into the SOFT range and probably on the worse side of. We have had plenty of wet tracks at Caulfield over the last few months and invariably they start coming off the rails pretty early in the meeting and the best ground is middle of the track and wider as the day progresses.
This meeting has always been vastly under-rated, the support card with the Vain, Quezette and Regal Roller Stakes are always interesting races to kick off spring with. Looks to be some value around and plenty of decent double figure chances today so may be some results and a few roughies in the selections to have a look at, especially earlier on in the day.
For Spring Campaign 2025 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 8: 6-EVAPORATE $7 WIN
Under-rated 3YO resuming for spring 4YO season who even had a crack at a Cox Plate last year. Handles it wet, loves to go forward and given two solid jump outs leading in this so likely to go forward here and control the tempo. Think this one is going to go on this spring and these early Spring features are there for the taking. Back straight out at around $4.
BEST WIN: Race 5: 6-SONOFKIRK $4 WIN
This one has a huge amount of talent but can be slowly away, but given small field and track pattern that isn’t likely to be a huge issue. Finished on strongly late first start and then extraordinary win here last start when at back of field and weaved through to get up. Handles it wet and will be coming strongly down the middle of the track later. Straight out at around $5.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 12-CASTLE ON HIGH $4 EW
Fairly even bunch here and this one has been really tough winning both starts this time in on wet tracks. Quite a few of these tend to mix their form, this one will jump and settle handy and even though those two wins have been narrow they have been really tough. Each way at around $8.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 12-TOO DARN DISCREET $4 EW
Big even field to end the day, but this one looks to be one on the way up and swooped past them with ease to win last start at Flemington. Strong finisher over the top of the late likely to be racing pattern by last race, drawn wide to get to middle of track and likely to do the same again here. Each way at around $6.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 16-ILLUMINANCE $2 EW, QUINELLA 5,6,8,15,16 boxed x $5 = 100%
Rather cheeky in tipping the rank outsider in the first race back for Spring Campaign 2025, but this one goes OK. Had a tendency to run on and find one better in the finish, but was always travelling 1st up and like the way she took the gap to win. Has some ability, good barrier here, can race handy and suspect is going to be in the finish here at a whopping $50. Back each way and box up a value quinella with the 15-SHADHAVAR who looks ready to win with two runs in, the 8-MOONHAVEN who loves it wet and needs a track worse side of soft, the 6-BEHAVIOUR who was impressive winning here last start and the 5-FLYER who has some ability but hasn’t seen a wet track.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 15-IMPENDING SHADOW $1.50 EW
Strong finishing wet tracker who is going to get conditions and racing pattern to suit here and drawn wide to come down the middle of the track. Finished on well last start and likely to be doing the same again here if they go fast enough in front. Rough at $25.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 7-TIZ WORTHY $1.50 EW, QUINELLA 3,4,6,7 boxed x $3 = 100%
This mare may be a little under-rated and started $20 winning first-up, but every chance she can go on with it here. Showed enough ability in first preparation and can just sit off them here again and may run over the top of them at $27. Rough chance and box up in a quinella with the 3-MY GLADIOLA who may be hard to beat fresh, the talented 4-SCENIC POINT and the 6-SIGNATURE SCENT.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 12-FEDERER at around $4
We were struggling to find a Lay of the Day today so we may end up in trouble here. Just don’t feel this one has actually done enough to justify the odds he keeps going around at, and likely to be well supported here again. Only 7 career starts and has been beaten at $1.55, $3.80 and $2.90 when starting favourite already. Main issue is to be honest there isn’t much opposition today so that’s always a warning bell for the Lay of the Day. But just can’t back with any confidence.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a racing club membership renewals for the new season.
$5 ALL UP
WIN Race 5: 6-SONOFKIRK
WIN Race 7: 3-RECOMMENDATION
WIN Race 8: 6-EVAPORATE
Taking the three most confident win bets of the day to collect $500.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 3,4,6,7 / 1,3,10 / 1,6 / 8,9,11,12,14,15 x $20 = 13.33%
Can probably go narrow first few legs here and just hope we can find one winner outside the norm, and probably only need the two favourites in the feature, leaving lots of options in an open last leg.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 8: LAWRENCE (LISTON) STAKES 1400M.
Probably a lesser class race than previous years and Waller Stable and Yu Long seemed to have flagged this as a barrier trial for their recent overseas purchases. Interesting that there is not much with any race fitness in this race, they are nearly all fresh off a break which is unusual – normally we have one or more race fit winter horses having a crack at this. As a result the speed here is going to be moderate at best, the 6-EVAPORATE looks the clear leader from 2-HERE TO SHOCK and you would think the 11-YELLOW SAM probably settles more forward today. Plenty of opportunity for something to be ridden more forward in this and taking a handy position.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-PRIVATE EYE is the Sydney top liner with proven Group form and has the class edge over most of his rivals here. Consistent in the feature 1200M, 1400M, 1600M races time and time again and although normally drops back in the run, has the versatility to be ridden forward if needed and likely to settle more handy today. Wet track no issue, note that most Melbourne way of going runs have been down the straight and very few runs around a bend in Melbourne. Change in preparation to come down for this race, but strikes a field he has class over. Strong chance.
2-HERE TO SHOCK is a good on-speed 1400M horse with an excellent career and distance strike rate. Most of his recent form has been on dry tracks, but wet track doesn’t look to be any issues. Given two jump outs to get ready for this and is normally competitive first-up, but tends to improve with a run or two in each time. Drawn out, but will go forward in a small field and unlikely to be much pressure up front here. Note excellent Caulfield stats. Should be in the finish, but just tending towards the two ahead of him in the betting. Place.
3-ATTRITION has a stack of ability but doesn’t win out of turn and can pop up at long odds when not expected. Invariably drops back and runs on too late, has an excellent finishing burst but often leaves it too late. Not sure they are going to go fast enough in this for him, though the racing pattern should favour those running on. Was competitive 1st up in this race in 2023. Unlikely to win, but probably runs better than the odds suggest. Rough place.
4-PINSTRIPED ran 2nd in this race last year and won the Memsie the start after, and 2nd in this race in 2023 and won the Feehan the start after – so he is normally up and running early on in the spring and highly competitive in these sort of races. Autumn campaign was only fair. Jockey has excellent record on this one and he does like a bit of give in the ground but maybe not too much. Would keep an eye on the market here, he has started $7 and $6 in his two previous attempts in this race both first-up, so the $16 today seems overs, but maybe that’s the market saying he is not ready this year? Race will be run to suit for him to run down the middle of the track and looks a good rough chance here. Rough.
5-DESERT LIGHTNING had a good Australian campaign in Melbourne last spring and then was competitive in a Group 1 over QLD Winter. Handles it wet and well supported in the market here. Likely to settle handy behind the speed but has drawn barrier 1 so likely to be making runs on the worse inside going here. Competitive but suspect finds one or two better here and prefer place.
6-EVAPORATE was a bit under-rated as a 3YO and probably should have won the Caulfield Guineas here last spring when caught wide on a leader’s track and autumn form was highly competitive and didn’t have the best of luck over in NZ. Had two strong jump out wins leading into this and likely to be very forward for this. Handles it wet, likely to go forward and dictate the speed and likely to go on this spring – keen to see what he can do this time in as think he has a heap of potential. Clear top pick and one to beat.
7-SEPALS was very impressive stringing three wins together at the start of the year. Seemed to love the wet when ran on strongly to win the C.S.Hayes. Given two jump outs to get ready for this, but he is going up another level here into open class and this is a decent challenge 1st up over 1400M against proven seasoned horses, especially as likely to drop back off a slow tempo. Likely to be finishing on well but want to see him line up at this level first. Passing.
8-MOIRA is one of several Waller imported runners coming down to Melbourne to kick off spring given the wet weather up in Sydney. Had support in Doncaster Hcp but didn’t show much. Two jump outs coming into this, but better over further and doubt they are going to go quick enough here. Passing.
9-AINSETTE is the other Waller import runner again coming off a Doncaster run, and has won a jump out leading into this. Impossible to line up against these and unlikely to get enough tempo to be a factor here. No.
10-FULL COUNT FELICIA SCRATCHED
11-YELLOW SAM has always had some ability and is going up another level here which might be a challenge. Flew home late to win here three starts back, in the finish two starts back and loomed like the winner along the inside here in the Bletchingly, but was outsprinted to the line. Excellent track and distance stats and he is the one horse in this race with some recent race fitness and think that is a big positive here. Better suited back to the 1400M here today and likely to settle just behind the speed. Wet track should be no issue. Definitely best rough chance in this.
Summary:
Looks a good betting race for a spring campaign kick-off and often the speed in the early feature races isn’t the strongest meaning those on-speed can dominate. So the 6-EVAPORATE looks a clear top pick here, under-rated and unlucky in his 3YO season, going forward to a clear lead and coming off two strong forward jump outs he is going to be very hard to beat here. The obvious danger is the 1-PRIVATE EYE likely ridden more forward today and the best roughie is the 11-YELLOW SAM up in class, but with race fitness on his side. Value in the 4-PINSTRIPED to be in the finish. Keen to bet here with a confident win bet on the top pick and a saver on the third pick at odds and probably dabbling with a same race multi with 6-EVAPORATE to win and 11-YELLOW SAM and 4-PINSTRIPED to run top four.
Race 1: 16-ILLUMINANCE, 15-SHADHAVAR, 8-MOONHAVEN
Race 2: 19-MAKDANE, 11-FARNBOROUGH, 18-BOGA LEGEND
Race 3: 10-BOSSY BENITA, 15-IMPENDING SHADOW, 17-KIRA
Race 4: 12-CASTLE ON HIGH, 3-HOME RULE, 7-STYLISH
Race 5: 6-SONOFKIRK, 2-SHINING SMILE, 5-JIMMY RECARD
Race 6: 7-TIZ WORTHY, 3-MY GLADIOLA, 4-SCENIC POINT
Race 7: 3-RECOMMENDATION, 1-ARKANSAW KID, 10-POP AWARD
Race 8: 6-EVAPORATE, 1-PRIVATE EYE, 11-YELLOW SAM
Race 9: 12-TOO DARN DISCREET, 9-EL ROCKO, 11-REVELARE
