Tips, suggested bets and feature race preview for the Lawrence (Liston) Stakes 15/08/2026.
We are kicking off Turf Deli Spring Campaign 2026 this week. Try and act surprised?
So that means the return of the feature race preview, Betting Portfolio and Lay of The Day. For Spring Campaign 2026 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview can be found at the bottom of this post.
There is not much rain forecast heading into the weekend, but we are still in the middle of winter so there is unlikely to be much improvement in the track. The Caulfield track is well worn and in need of a renovation at the moment. So even though the rail is TRUE and fresh ground expect the inside to be off after the first few races and for them to be coming off the rails in the straight, this has been the pattern for quite a few months now at Caulfield and is unlikely to change until the weather warms up again. Rail should be OK early races, and later on those running on and swooping should have their chance. Decent punting program with a good mix of races and odds.
Also note that they sell Coke now at Caulfield. And Fanta. So if the lack of Fanta has been keeping you away from the races, there is no longer any excuse not to go.
BEST WIN: Race 3: 1-SILENT SHARES $5 WIN
QUINELLA Race 3: 1-SILENT SHARES#7,10,14 x $3 = 100%
This mare has been in flying form, sprinting clear at Sandown two starts back and then faced an impossible task from clear last in previous run at Flemington when ran past most of the field, except two that had better runs on-speed closer to the rails which was better ground. Likely to drop back again today and would be more confident if this race was later in the program where track will probably turn to runners on, but she is flying at the moment and most of these are just going fairly. Back straight out at around $6 and save on an quinella in case she gets too far back with the lightly-weighted on speed 14-MISSAPPREHEND, the 7-MYSTERY’N’DRAMA who will also be on-speed and may improve at odds today and the slowly away and strong finishing 10-ILLYIVY.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 6-ELOUYOU $4 EW
Pretty consistent on-pacer who is long overdue another win (476 days, but its only 8 starts with 3 placings in that time). Can jump and go forward here from a good barrier and has been racing really well, massive run in Sydney last start when she jumped and led and fought back strongly. Might just jump and lead again here from a good barrier and pinch this race at around $6.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 14-PORTINARI $4 EW
Plenty of value in the 3YO filly feature race and this one has race fitness over many of these. Still a maiden but she chased really hard here last time behind a short-priced favourite and they cleared away from the rest of the field. Big field and genuine tempo should suit and she should be strong at the end of the race at around $14.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 12-COEUR VOLANTE $4 EW
Keen to back the fit and in-form winter horse in the feature race. Her string of wins swooping on wet tracks have been impressive and totally forget the last start at Flemington on a dry track when it was basically a trial behind a dictating leader. Conditions and racing pattern will be pretty much identical today to her previous wins here so keen to back her each way at around $11.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 8-PRINCESS QUE $2 EW, QUINELLA 1,3,8,13,14 boxed x $5 = 50%
First race of the day and good chance the inside lanes will be the best ground early on. Look for horses on-speed who can jump and run and this one seems to tick the box at odds. First-up, but jump outs have been good and showed she had some ability last preparation when she was hard to run down on-speed. Nice roughie to kick off spring at around $20. Might be some value in the quinella here with the in-form 1-MARKDEL, the other on-speed horse the 3-NAVAL ACADEMY, the well-drawn and consistent 13-SUN SETTING and the other roughie 14-WALTER SPUR who will probably drop too far back here but has a great finishing burst if racing pattern allows him to run on late.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 10-TAKA SPEED $2 EW
There doesn’t seem to be much speed in this race and on-speed and inside is likely to be the best going early on, so throw a little something on this roughie who will race on-speed in a big field and has been racing consistently and been around the finish last few starts.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 8: 7-RECOMMENDATION at around $5
Consistent wet track sprinter who is down in grade from the early season WFA sprints where he has gone OK, but he hasn’t won now for 714 days and he has had every chance quite a few times in these sort of races. Likely to be in the finish again, but just tends to find one better so not interested at these sort of odds and favourite.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into full fridge of icy cold Coca Cola.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE Race 4: 6-ELOUYOU
PLACE Race 6: 14-PORTINARI
PLACE Race 7: 12-COEUR VOLANTE
PLACE Race 9: 2-JUST FOLK
Going for the fit and in-form horses all up the place to collect around $150 for a $5 outlay
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 1,5,8,10,14,15 / 1,2,12 / 1,4,9,10 / 2,4,13 x $20 = 9.25%
Main trick here is going to be getting past the wide open first leg and hopefully we can get some value there with the other legs looking more straight forward.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 7: LAWRENCE (LISTON) STAKES 1400M WFA GROUP 2
Standard edition of the spring kick-off where we need to line up the in-form winter horses vs the class horses returning and work out how forward they are. Clear leader here is the 10-REGAL ZEUS, but they might not go as hard as usual first-up, the 2-EVAPORATE likely to roll forward but also can miss the start and the 6-FEROCE always lands on speed. 4-DESERT LIGHTNING likely to go forward as well. Means there is plenty of room here for the 1-PRIVATE EYE to take up a handy position in a race where they are unlikely to go a solid tempo. Interesting that we have many of the same field lining up as last year so maybe go back and watch that race to prepare.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-PRIVATE EYE is proven time and time again at this level and won this race last year leading when first-up, so has been set for this race again. Drawn wide and not sure the trials have been as good as last year, but he should be able to slide forward pretty easily and get the run of the race in this. Unbeaten this track and distance and can go early in his campaign so looks a perfect setup here. Strong chance.
2-EVAPORATE is one we have given an awful lot of chances too and we are starting to tire of, but he is often around the finish and probably should have won the Toorak last spring. Disaster in this race last year when he missed the start and then got held up badly trying to get into clear running in the straight and probably should have gone close to winning. Does like to go forward, but makes his work that much harder by often missing the start. Placed 4 from 8 at Caulfield and been in the finish so many times in these races, surely, surely he is due to win one? Strong trials leading into this so looks like he is ready. Strong chance.
3-ATTRITION keeps running honest races in this sort of company, but pretty much always needs a few runs in to find his best form. Finished last in this race last year when first up, and do prefer him with a few runs in on a firm track. Passing, but he is always capable of running top four in these sort of races.
4-DESERT LIGHTNING was second in this race last year when first-up and on the inside in the worse going. Surprise win in the Group 1 Goodwood mid-year to remind us he was still around and still had the ability. Dominant trial win leading coming in this and good chance they will go forward here in a race with not much speed. Track and distance stats don’t read the best but he is always capable. Chance.
5-PINSTRIPED is another who has been capable in these sort of events and ran second in this race in 2024 before a disappointing run in last year’s event (and he didn’t come up that campaign). Coming in with a different preparation this year, having a lead-in run coming into this race and that run was pretty good when not far behind the finish with a big weight. He does tend to find these at the top of the level he can get to, be interesting to see how he goes with a run in ahead of many of these. Place chance.
6-FEROCE is one who just loves to jump and land on-speed and always grinds away well into the finish. Ran 2nd here first-up last time in over 1400M in the autumn. Two trials leading into this but do prefer him with a few runs in and on firmer ground. Place only.
7-COSMIC CRUSADER is the WA import, possibly heading for a big spring ahead coming off strong WA form with an excellent win strike rate. Jockey Pike has come over to ride him, but his record over here isn’t overly strong in these sort of races. Well in the market and impressive win last start, but not sure of the strength of the field he beat last time and this is a much stronger race with proven WFA performers. He should get enough speed to run into the race, but think $2.40 and favourite is far too short against this sort of company, so going to risk at these odds. Totally capable of winning though, just prefer to see him line up against these.
8-WOOTTON VERNI is a lightly raced import who has had a few preparations now down here and seems to be finding his best form over longer distances. Two trials leading into this, but likely to need a few runs in and more ground to show his best. Passing.
9-SOUL OF SPAIN SCRATCHED
10-REGAL ZEUS is really hard to run down when he is fit and in form and leading, so would have loved him to come into this race in that sort of form with race-fitness against these and would have made this race very interesting. Really disappointing in two QLD runs this time in and likely to improve coming back to Melbourne way of going, but can’t have him against these at WFA off the last two runs. No
11-KINGS VALLEY has always shown potential and he is more of a distance handicapper than a WFA horse. Mornington Cup win means he is on a Caulfield Cup path and just doing warm-up laps here, but he will be probably running on late to keep us interested. Passing.
12-COEUR VOLANTE creates interest as the race fit and in form horse coming into this against a field of first-uppers. Been flying through winter on exactly these sort of tracks, off rails and give in the ground and strong finisher. Firm track and leader dominated race last start didn’t suit at all (leader totally controlled a strong speed there), and gets the perfect set up to run on down the middle of the track here. Looks the value runner in this race and keen on this one. Strong chance.
13-OHOPE WINS is the ATC Oaks winner who is another looking for more ground and later spring targets and unlikely to be that forward here. Can run on late though so rough place chance.
Summary:
Interesting race to kick off Spring on, the favourite the 7-COSMIC CRUSADER was very impressive here last start, but how will he measure up against these? We are going to push for the in-form, wet track, strong finisher here in the 12-COEUR VOLANTE each way, totally forget that last run and she has been on a hot streak so may prove competitive here. The 2-EVAPORATE totally due to win one of these, but we can’t keep tipping and backing him, and the 1-PRIVATE EYE as the main danger. Rough chance to the 4-DESERT LIGHTNING and best place is the 5-PINSTRIPED, but main bet will be each-way on the top pick at double-figure odds.
Race 1: 8-PRINCESS QUE, 3-NAVAL ACADEMY, 1-MARKDEL
Race 2: 2-AMLETO, 10-TAKA SPEED, 17-LEONCHROI
Race 3: 1-SILENT SHARES, 14-MISSAPPREHEND, 7-MYSTERY’N’DRAMA
Race 4: 6-ELOUYOU, 8-HE’LL RIP, 4-TEN COMMANDMENTS
Race 5: 2-CLOSER TO FREE, 4-BIG WIGS, 1-TORNADO VALLEY
Race 6: 14-PORTINARI, 8-SCINTILLATION, 5-NATURAL FLING
Race 7: 12-COEUR VOLANTE, 2-EVAPORATE, 1-PRIVATE EYE
Race 8: 9-SHADHAVAR, 1-ARKANSAW KID, 10-MCGAW
Race 9: 13-DARKBONEE, 2-JUST FOLK, 4-DETONATOR JACK
