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| MOONEE VALLEY : MOONEE VALLEY - 20th Aug 2011 |
| Track: DEAD(5) - Weather: FINE - Rail: OUT 5M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Fair bit of rain around this week, so despite the weather looking good for the weekend you would think this track will still retain a fair bit of give. Looking at a genuine DEAD track. Normal racing pattern when the rail is out is at MV for the track to strongly advantage on pacers, and indeed this meeting last year was on a dynamite leader’s track. So try and stick to the on pacers, definitely watch the first few races and see if there is a pattern, and be wary of those who have drawn inside who may drop back in the field, cause they may struggle to see daylight. Choice between three listed races worth the same amount for the feature race preview, so we are going to do Race 7, just because it has the most exposed form so makes for the more interesting commentary. Note that DUSTY STAR is SCR from the last and has gone over to Adelaide – and is probably worth a bet tomorrow. There doesn’t appear to be a great deal of value in today’s meeting with short priced favourites in most races so bet sparingly. RESULTS : Another shocking day for the tips. MV track was extremely biased, you just couldn't make ground more than 2 horses off the rails, and all the winners either led, or sat on the fence behind the leader. Even though we predicted that there was likely to be a bias we could still barely find a winner ! Appalling effort. Was extremely hard to make ground out wide, and many who were travelling well and pulled out wide for their runs were suddenly going backwards. Ignore a lot of this form. BEST BET : Race 7: 5-DEFINITELY READY $12 WIN X QUINELLA : Race 7: 5-DEFINITELY READY, 9-HAPPY ANGEL x $2.50 2nd 9-HAPPY ANGEL W=$16.50 QUINELLA : Race 7: 5-DEFINITELY READY, 1-LONE ROCK x $2.50 X Jump and run sprinter who went well 1st run back from a spell and fought the race out all the way down the straight. Probably better around a bend, should be fitter for the run and from middle barrier can jump and stay in clear running over the tight MV 1000M sprint trip. Don’t like the favourite in this event, the (8) at all and that will mean better odds for this one. Take a saver quinella with two of the other value chances. RESULTS : Jumps and gets to the lead no worries, but stops on the turn and finishes tailed off - obviously something wrong again with this one. Was actually pretty confident it would win. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 9-KID KOBE $5 EW X Should be plenty of value in this race with lots of 3YO resuming and always makes for a even race and wide betting. This one has race fitness on his side, is fitter for the 2 runs in and think he shows a bit of potential. Really like the way he finished off last start over the 1000M and the 1200M today will suit much better. Probably just wants to be sitting outside horses and midfield or better so he can swoop into the race, but suspect he might go onto better things this spring. RESULTS : Pulls out 3 wide around the 600M and looks to be travelling - but is quickly going backwards as do many in that part of the track. BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 3-CRABS $5EW 3rd W=$5.40, P=$1.80 = 5 x 1.80 = $9 QUINELLA : Race 4: 3-CRABS, 9-SAVAGING x $3 3rd 2-CRABS W=$5.40 Honest stayer in a pretty even field, where there is a bit of speed and this could be a genuine staying test. MV form is outstanding, 3 wins, 5 placings, in the finish 6 from 10 over the 2500M and 3 from 4 over the MV 2500M. Not suited dropping back to the 2000M last start and much better placed here. Struck a purple patch of form winning 4 on end this time last year, including this race. Take a saver quinella with the (9) as well who is one of the few in this race with any up side, should be fitter for the 2 runs back and chased hard last start. RESULTS : We were pretty unlucky here - this one should have definitely won, and considering the racing pattern for the day, probably should have won eased down by about 5L ! Solid, staying MV specialist who was wide all the way, going backwards on the home turn as did most runners out wide, then once straightened launched with a mighty run to only just miss - would have got there in a few more strides. BEST ROUGH : Race 3: 14-SHABANGABANG $2.50 EW SCR $5 Just a bit of a fling on the bottom weight and emergency in this race, who will get in with no weight depending on how light the apprentice can ride with the claim. Goes along OK, fitter for 2 runs in which have both been OK. Not much speed here, has drawn inside and hopefully they will go forward and make use of probable leader’s track. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 6 : RUNNING TALL at around $4.20 6th W=$9.30 Very even race of 3YO C+G resuming for the spring and you never quite know who is going to step up. This one competed in the best 2YO races over the Autumn, and was competitive, without being outstanding. Stole the Sires Produce with a soft lead over the Flem 1400M and think that form might flatter a little – and gets topweight because of it. Currently challenging favouritism and prefer to be on others. RESULTS : Not sure who did the opening odds for TAB Sportsbet, and the newspapers, but this was showing equal favourite at $4.20 on Friday - hence making it lay of the day cause that was way under the odds. Opened up around $10 which is more like it, but failed to do much. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. Race 8 : QUINELLA BOX : 4,7(scr),10,11(scr),13 x 50 cents = $5 $3.50 for scratchings. The last race looks most likely to throw up a result with a few spring contenders resuming, the (3), (5) and the (9), who will attract most of the money. But they will get back around the tight MV circuit and there is little or not speed in this race. So box up the (13), who will get a run now with scratching and sit on the speed from a good barrier, same with the (11), and the (4) is going OK. The (10) hasn’t really shown any form in ages, but his 1st 2 runs in last time were actually pretty good and will start long, long odds. And just for a bit of thrill factor, even throw in the hopeless out of form 7-JUNGLE RULER, who will finally get a soft lead here and all his wins in the last few years have been when racing against fields of mainly 1st uppers, when he is race fit and can run them along. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $17.50 NET : $-32.50 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 1-DANCE WITH HER, 2-THERE’S ONLY ONE, 6-PEARLY KATE Race 2: 11-STATE GRADE, 7-ZELSNITZ, 8-MUSHATTA Race 3: 14-SHABANGABANG (emerg), 4-MYTHICAL SPIRIT, 2-SPURCIFIC, 10-SHYLIGHT Race 4: 3-CRABS, 9-SAVAGING, 5-GEEJAYHAITCH Race 5: 1-TRIPLE ASSET, 4-HALLOWELL BELLE, 8-KNEELING Race 6: 9-KID KOBE, 10-NICONISE, 5-SECRET HILLS Race 7: 5-DEFINITELY READY, 9-HAPPY ANGEL, 1-LONE ROCK Race 8: 13-CABEZA (emerg), 11-CARNERO, 10-EXTRA ZERO, 4-PINNACLES |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-DANCE WITH HER 2nd W=$2.40 2-THERE’S ONLY ONE 1st W=$1.90 6-PEARLY KATE Quinella : $1.50 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-STATE GRADE 3rd W=$5.20 7-ZELSNITZ 8-MUSHATTA 2nd W=$2.90 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-MYTHICAL SPIRIT 2-SPURCIFIC 10-SHYLIGHT |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-CRABS 3rd W=$5.40 9-SAVAGING 5-GEEJAYHAITCH 2nd W=$6.20 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-TRIPLE ASSET 4-HALLOWELL BELLE 2nd W=$1.90 8-KNEELING 1st W=$5.90 Quinella : $4.70 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-KID KOBE 10-NICONISE 5-SECRET HILLS 3rd W=$4.30 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-DEFINITELY READY 9-HAPPY ANGEL 2nd W=$16.50 1-LONE ROCK |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-CABEZA 10-EXTRA ZERO 4-PINNACLES |
| RACE 7: PRINTHOUSE GRAPHICS STAKES 1000M LISTED |
| Tips: 5-DEFINITELY READY 9-HAPPY ANGEL 2nd W=$16.50 1-LONE ROCK |
| Others: - Pace: VERY FAST Leaders : 3-WILANDER (wide), 5-DEFINITELY READY, 9-HAPPY ANGEL Handy : 2-MORGAN DOLLAR, 4-EIGHT BILLS (wide), 11-CENTEXPRESS, 12-TOTAL LIBERTY Back : 1-LONE ROCK, 8-KULGRINDA, 10-ENZED GIRL Chances: 1-LONE ROCK is a lightly raced up and comer who seems to be on the improve. Long shot Group 1 winner in the Goodwood last start, but form before that wasn’t that bad at all, and nice win in Group 3 here at night meeting last spring. Always shown a fair bit of ability and probably a bit better than most of these. Last two wins have been over 1200M, and she comes from behind, so you just wonder if over the 1000M here, at MV, on a track probably favouring on pacers whether she might just finish on a bit too late here to be a factor ? There is plenty of speed in this though, and she will get a clear crack at them from an outsider barrier if they go too hard. Rough only. 5-DEFINITELY READY is another lightly raced one with a fait bit of dash and there is a bit of a boom on this one. Also had a lengthy break, and was very well backed 1st start back at Flemington. Funny how after having 40 weeks off they don’t announce that he has had a throat operation until an hour or two before the race ? Unless he had it that morning - which would explain why the jockey was racing in an hospital gown. Anyway…. Jump and dash type, who doesn’t get much past 1000M. 1st up effort was excellent when he was out in the middle of the track most of the way and looked to be travelling well, but the inside was the better going that day. Sure to get a stack of improvement out of that run. Drawn out a bit is probably a plus, he can go forward with lots of speed here and stay out of trouble in space. May just want the track the better side of dead ? . Looks the one to beat here, but there is a fair bit of talent in this field, and just wary that he may start under the odds in this. Top chance. 9-HAPPY ANGEL is an honest, on pace sprinter, who often looks the winner but like the (2) just seems to find one better every start. Fitter for the 2 runs in and should be at peak, and fought out the race all the way down the straight last start when only beaten a nostril. Suspect 1000M is as far as she wants - she often kicks to the lead and looks the winner 100M out only to be grabbed on the line. Best form is definitely on wet ground, so you would think MV would suit, although her MV form isn’t the best. Should lead on the rails here with the scratchings which could be a big plus. Elevate if the track stays rain affected, should be thereabouts, should lead, should be about to peak with the two runs in, and track should favour on pacers and will be in the finish. Chance. 2nd W=$16.50 Place: 2-MORGAN DOLLAR is a honest on pacer who has been around for a while now - but main problem is that he has not won a race since July 2008, despite being in the finish and a winning chance on numerous occasions. On pacer who will sit right on the leaders here. Ran 2nd in this race last year on a dynamite leaders track – which really should have been his day and 3rd in this race the year before. Placed 4 from 6 over the MV 1000M as well – the 1000M is definitely as far as he wants. Always thereabouts, but always finds one better. Place only. 3rd W=$20.20 8-KULGRINDA is another with a boom on it from the boom Victorian stable. Stable runners are tending to get backed off the map, but they are winning, even when poor value. Nice win 1st up in Adel. Interesting to note dropping back in distance here, and she sort of looms as one who might want 1100M or 1200M. Racing pattern is to drop back a little and run on. Our rule at MV is that you don’t back drop back horses from inside barriers when the rail is out – cause so often they don’t get clear. There is a stack of pace in this race, so there will be enough speed, but going to be a very tricky ride from barrier 1 to get off the rails around MV. Likely to start favourite too, and at a short quote, so think she represents poor value on that basis. Suspect something will jump and run and lead all the way over the 1000M anyway. Despite the stable being in amazing form, actually quite keen to take this one on. Risking. 1st W=$1.70 12-TOTAL LIBERTY is lightly raced and fitter for the 3 runs in, but they have been in a weaker class. This is actually quite a strong race for a Listed Sprint. Excellent 1000M record, dropped back last start, but normally races on the speed. Rough place chance is best. Sacking: 3-WILANDER put in a solid run 1st up coming off a very long 93 week spell when he took some time out to find himself, write a novel and take a break from the crazy hectic world. 1st up run was excellent, he contested the lead and only really faded over the last little bit. You would think maybe just one more run to get him right before getting on, but looks like he is going to return to his best after the break. Another leader – and there are plenty of leaders in this field, and he has drawn the widest, so its either bust a gut going forward and come undone, or drop back against normal racing pattern. So not today – but soon. No. 4-EIGHT BILLS is a lightly raced 6 year old who has shown a bit of ability. 5 time winner over the 1000M and unbeaten this track and distance. On pacer as well though, drawn wide and there is an absolute stack of pace in this race. Coming off a year long break probably prefer to let run – but does have plenty of ability when right. Passing today. 4th W=$18.60 6-JOHNNYDRAMA SCR 7-WARM LOVE SCR 10-ENZED GIRL hasn’t shown any form for a while and looked to be struggling on wet ground over winter. Drifted heavily in betting 1st up and jockey said the track did not suit. Drops back, striking a pretty smart field here and this looks out of her depth. No. 11-CENTEXPRESS is 1st up and has a pretty good MV, 1000M and MV + 1000M record, so this looks a suitable race. You always have to worry when the furthest distance a horse has won over is 1006 M – that extra 6 metres is often a true staying test ! Best form is definitely on top of the ground so would want the track to dry out a lot to be a factor. On pacer, who is unlikely to have the speed to go with some of these and looks outclassed against this lot. No Summary: Despite there being no feature race this week this looks a good betting race. Fairly decent field and you just need to look at the number of runners here with only a dozen starts or so and good win strike rates to know it is going to be a very competitive race. Should be a furious pace here, 3-WILANDER (wide), 5-DEFINITELY READY, 9-HAPPY ANGEL should all burn forward, and 2-MORGAN DOLLAR, 4-EIGHT BILLS (wide), 11-CENTEXPRESS won’t be far behind so should be a fair bit of pressure up front. But also quite possible that whatever jumps best and leads gets the rails here and can hold them off over the 1000M. Just think it is going to be extremely hard for the 8-KULGRINDA to get off the rails with a stack of on pacers around her over 1000M at MV with the rail out. Quite keen on the 5-DEFINITELY READY who showed plenty first up, and can sit on the speed in clear running from a middle barrier. 9-HAPPY ANGEL should push forward on the rails and she is just about always in the finish, and with the fast pace 1-LONE ROCK should be able to come on out wide if they are running on OK. Pretty keen to have a bet though, so win bet on the (5) and save with quinealls on the other two. One to risk: 8-KULGRINDA 1st W=$1.70 Roughie: 9-HAPPY ANGEL 2nd W=$16.50 The Key: Will it be a leader’s track ? Can those drawn inside get off the rails if they don’t lead ? RESULTS : OK - we knew we were utterly and totally stuffed with the One To Risk even before going into this race. Strong on pace bias, those with trails on the rails were winning most of the races and barrier 1 had won the previous two races going into this. Total and utter goner ! 5-DEFINITELY READY jumped to the lead , but stopped quickly and pulled up with something wrong with it, meaning the short priced favourite 8-KULGRINDA won like a sure thing. |
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