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IAS BET : Makybe Diva Stakes Money Back Special
IASbet.com Hour of Power – 100% Markets on Selected Races
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| FLEMINGTON : MAKYBE DIVA STAKES - 4th SEPTEMBER 2010 |
| Track: SLOW(6) - Weather: PATCHY RAIN - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): This is going to be tricky meeting to judge the race pattern on before the day. Track is currently a SLOW (6), only patchy rain going into the weekend, so will be on the improve. On the downside, few showers tonight, then severe, heavy, drenching rain forecast for the weekend, starting mid Saturday afternoon, so just a matter of when that rain comes and if it hits Flemington. Take an umbrella and gum boots just in case. Rail is back to TRUE position and generally that will favour those racing on pace. With capacity fields you would probably want to tend towards those drawn good barriers who are going to race on the speed, or just behind it and stick to the best going on the rails. Nine race capacity program means there is going to be plenty of value in trifectas and first fours, so have a play with the multiples and throw in long shot on pacers well drawn if that pattern eventuates. Extremely tough program – so spread the bets around. RESULTS: Managed to get the racing pattern entirely wrong - they come off the rails after the first race, and all the winners are swoopers coming down the middle of the track. Hence tips go extremely ordinary. Very wet track with continual rain during the day. Form is going to change dramatically once these tracks dry out. BEST WIN : Race 5: 6-RESPONSE $10 WIN 2nd W=$3.80 Lightly raced one who ran a huge race 1st up, poked through and kicked clear on the inside of the track which was by far the worse going. Took a bit for the others to come out and run her down. Still on the improve, should position up on the speed here which is a plus over the Flem 1400M and should be hard to beat. RESULTS: Looked the best bet of the day, was coming hard on the line and probably should have won - just got a little bit too far back. Keep following this one, she is a lightly raced one on the up and better things are in store. BEST WIN : Race 2: 2-CENSOR $8 WIN 3rd W=$2.40 Few up and comers with a spruik on them in this race, so means that one is going to start back able odds, even though he is unbeaten 3 from 3. OK – so he is probably due to loose, but not much speed here, will position on the speed, and suited by the compressed weight scale as has been giving horses weight in previous runs. Form from last run holds up. Happy to back at around $4. RESULTS: Struck lead early in the straight and looked set for victory, but got swamped near the line. Have to say did start ridicolously short though. BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 16-NICASTRO $4 WIN X QUINELLA : Race 4: 16-NICASTRO, 8-SAVQUAW x $2 QUINELLA : Race 4: 16-NICASTRO, 14-SYNDROME x $2 QUINELLA : Race 4: 16-NICASTRO, 4-SADALBARI x $2 Huge run last start when was only one chasing a tear away leader, looked gone half way down the straight but kept fighting on. Can sit on the speed here, big field, but most of them are 1st up and has race fitness on his side. So back him to win, if the badly drawn favourite the (5) falls to fire first up (maybe they won’t be running on ?), there will be plenty of value in the quinella, so take quinellas with the inside barriers which may be the best going. RESULTS: Sits just off pace, looks set to run into race, but just plugs away for 4th. QUINELLA : Race 6: 8-SOUL, 3-BUFFERING x $4 1st 8-SOUL W=$3.40, 2nd 3-BUFFERING W=$4.60 QUINELLA = $6 = $24 QUINELLA : Race 6: 8-SOUL, 10-REKINDLED INTEREST x $4 This one is racing extremely well and should hold it’s form. Poked through last start and got nailed by one coming home strongly out wide, who has since won a feature race in Sydney. Should sit in clear running here and put himself into the finish, take quinellas with the likely leader the (3), and the (10) who was an eye catcher coming home late last start. RESULTS : 8-SOUL is a consistent solid performer and always looks to have the race in its keeping. Not much value in the quinella though. BEST ROUGH : Race 6: 10-REKINDLED INTEREST $2.50 EW X Doubling up here in Race 6, but this one finished on really well last start and probably has lots of improvement to come. Looks like the straight will suit and watch for home coming home hard down the middle of the track. RESULTS : Got going late and flashed home again - keep following is going to be competitive when the races get a little longer. BEST ROUGH : Race 3: 14-PENTO DIABLO $2 EW SCR $4 OK this one is a bit of a wild guess. Does have a fair bit of ability when right, still lightly raced, has had a year off. Has done absolutely nothing at 3 runs in, but they have all been on wet tracks, so out to 2000M today and maybe if the track is firming might be worth a shot? Just thought the $75 currently on TAB fixed odds looked a little silly, so worth some loose change. LAY OF THE DAY : RACE 1: 1-SHAAHEQ at around $7. 4th W=$9.10 Class filly who was a little disappointing 1st up, but may not have handled the wet track. Firmer track today will increase her chances, but capacity field of 19 and is giving 2-4 kgs to all of them. Drawn a tricky insider barrier 2 down the straight, she normally settles back, you can just see her squashed back on the fence here struggling to get clear. Very likely in such a big field something to going to improve rapidly and get an outsider result, so think she is unlikely to win today. RESULTS : Actually thought this was a huge run, and was a bit worried she was going to get up and win. Stuck on rails in worse going, was battling away well in a blanket finish, giving everything weight. Would definitely follow up on next start. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. TRIFECTA : RACE 5 : 6 / 5, 13(scr) / 1,3,4,5,8,9,11,13(scr) x $2.50 = 17.85% TRIFECTA : RACE 5 : 6 / 1,3,4,5,8,9,11,13(scr) / 5, 13(scr) x $2.50 = 17.85% 2nd 6-RESPONSE W=$3.80 / 1st 9-NO EVIDENCE NEEDED W=$17.20 / 4th 5-LADY LYNETTE W=$5.30 Let’s try and hit the trifecta in Race 5. Stick with the top pick 6-RESPONSE to win, and anchor around place getters 13-TONIC (should be value), 5-LADY LYNETTE filling either 2nd or 3rd. Pretty much anything could fill the other placings, so let’s go 1,3,4,8,9,11. Hopefully in an even field if something silly gets into the placings the trifecta will pay $500 to $1000. SPENT : $50 RETURN : $28 NET : $-22 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 2-ENZED GIRL, 12-BLINK, 7-SHINY AND NEW Race 2: 2-CENSOR, 7-ACHIEVEMENTS, 5-TURIFF Race 3: 7-MACEDONIAN, 14-PENTO DIABLO, 2-ZOOMIN, Race 4: 16-NICASTRO, 8-SAVQUAW, 14-SYNDROME Race 5: 6-RESPONSE, 13-TONIC, 5-LADY LYNETTE Race 6: 8-SOUL, 3-BUFFERING, 10-REKINDLED INTEREST Race 7: 15-MONACO CONSUL, 13-SPEED GIFTED, 9-VIGOR Race 8: 2-LOVE CONQUERS ALL, 5-DOUTFUL JACK, 7-LEICA LARRIKIN Race 9: 10-BACKWHEREIBELONG, 8-MAKEADREAMCOMETRUE, 19-FAIRFIELD FLAME (emerg), 16-RUNDLE |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-ENZED GIRL 12-BLINK 7-SHINY AND NEW |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-CENSOR 3rd W=$2.40 7-ACHIEVEMENTS 5-TURIFF |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-MACEDONIAN 14-PENTO DIABLO SCR 2-ZOOMIN 1st W=$4.00 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 16-NICASTRO 8-SAVQUAW 14-SYNDROME |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-RESPONSE 2nd W=$3.80 13-TONIC SCR 5-LADY LYNETTE |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-SOUL 1st W=$3.40 3-BUFFERING 2nd W=$4.60 10-REKINDLED INTEREST Quinella : $6.00 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 15-MONACO CONSUL 13-SPEED GIFTED 9-VIGOR 3rd W=$5.20 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-LOVE CONQUERS ALL 5-DOUTFUL JACK 1st W=$2.70 7-LEICA LARRIKIN |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-BACKWHEREIBELONG 8-MAKEADREAMCOMETRUE 19-FAIRFIELD FLAME SCR |
| RACE 7: MAKYBE DIVA STAKES GROUP 2 1600M WFA |
| Tips: 15-MONACO CONSUL 13-SPEED GIFTED 9-VIGOR 3rd W=$5.20 |
| Others: 19,16, 4 Pace: SLOW Leaders : 14-STERLING PRINCE Handy : 3-ZAVITE, 4-DANLEIGH, 5-REBEL RAIDER, 6-HEART OF DREAMS, 7-RED RULER, 9-VIGOR, 13-SPEED GIFTED, 15-MONACO CONSUL, 16-CHARTREUX , 17-BAUGHURST (emerg), 19-GHOSTMILK (emerg) Back : 1-SHOCKING, 2-MASTER O'REILLY, 8-C'EST LA GUERRE, 10-ALANDI, 11-DOCTOR FREMANTLE, 12-MOURAYAN, 18-FANJURA (emerg) Chances: 4-DANLEIGH is one of the best they have going around in Sydney at the moment and looks suited going into this – with 2 runs in meaning he is ahead in race fitness on most of these. 3rd up and up 200M, should be fitter with improvement still to come and has been in the finish both runs this time in. Excels on slow ground which is what he is going to get here, drawn OK and can take up a handy position in a race that is laden with drop back horses which is going to be a big plus. Question is going to be the 1600M – yet to win past 1500M, 5 starts over 1600M for 3 placings all in top company – which is OK – just would have liked to see him win one of those. You would like to see him go forward and sit just off the speed from his good barrier and put himself into the race. Looks pretty well suited here so is likely to be in the finish, can just see one of the others finishing over the top of him though over the 1600M, so prefer each way chance. 4th W=$4.40 9-VIGOR is 2nd up and up 200M and did run on nicely in the Liston (as did a few which are going around today). Has a heavy track win to his name, and went OK last start on a wet track so seems to go through the going OK. Worth noting he won this race 2nd up last year, and his performance that day was very impressive, made a run wide and early and kept on going to score. Mixed form the rest of the Spring 2009, before another impressive run in the Caulfield Cup, but was balloted out of the Melbourne Cup. You feel we haven’t quite seen the best of this one yet. Drawn out a little, but he can go forward and race on speed here and make his own luck. Suspect he is going to do something today and put in as a solid chance. 3rd W=$5.20 13-SPEED GIFTED looked like being a revelation last spring when he destroyed a handy field at 1st run in Australia during the winter, then repeated the dose with solid spring runs and slaughtered them in the Metropolitan. Things went a bit pear shaped after that – after training him, qualifying him and heading him for the Caulfield Cup, trainer suddenly decided not to run him and go around in the Cox Plate instead, where he flopped badly, jarred up and that was the end of his spring. But you suspect the sudden and bizarre change in plans signalled something wasn’t going quite to plan anyway. Mixed his form during Sydney carnival. Stable seems to think they have the key to him, keep him fresh, wet tracks – doubt you will see more than 3-4 runs at most from him this spring. Worth noting his best runs have come in handicaps. But he had two fresh runs here over 1600M/1700M and both times he won with a touch of class. Fresh, wet track and Flem look to suit. Blinkers 1st time too might see him racing quite handy. Watch the market to see how forward they think he is but he is a solid chance. 15-MONACO CONSUL is last year’s Derby winner who hasn’t been given much of a break, and failed to fire during brief pop in visit back home to NZ over summer. Back to Sydney form was solid though, and 1st up run in the Liston was excellent – settled handy, he stuck to the inside which was by far the worse going and made solid good ground. Proven on wet tracks. Big plus here is the barrier, drawn inside, good chance they might go forward, else he could get a perfect run just behind the speed and good chance the inside is going to be the best going. This field is very bottom heavy, 1st up run was very promising, looks very well suited here today and very strong chance. Top pick for us. 16-CHARTREUX is a lightly raced handicap stayer who seems to be on a rapid improving spiral – good chance will go onto better things this spring. Ran on OK 1st up at MV – did cut the corner in the best going, but it was a dynamite leader’s track that day, so was hard to make ground Drawn well and think barriers are going to be important today. Capable of sitting handy, looks to be on the up, question is obviously going to be at WFA against this field, but think he is probably the best rough chance in this. Rough. 19-GHOSTMILK (emerg) has been absolutely flying over winter and deserves her shot at a race like this. Managed to get perfect run in behind the leaders on leader’s track at MV last start, but she has been easily accounting for her opposition and winning with some class and dash before that. Absolutely loves it wet, in form, is race fit, on an upward spiral, drawn an OK barrier, can probably settle first half of field – awful lot to like about her here today. Question is whether she gets into this field. It was obvious over winter she was going to end up having a crack at a race like this – maybe would have just preferred it in a field of 10-12, but there is a lot of dead weight in this field with horses running warm up laps so she has to be respected. If the rain comes down and the track gets a soaking definitely upgrade her chances. Solid chance. SCR Place: 1-SHOCKING is last year’s Melbourne Cup winner who ran on pretty well first up which was a promising sign. 2nd up and up 200M, and last spring he took some hard racing and some distance to find his best. Huge run on heavy track in QLD Derby as a 3YO so wet won’t be a problem. Will probably improve at Flem too as is definitely the type that needs the bigger track. Tends to keep his form for the handicap events, hasn’t shown up in one of these WFA races as yet. But get the feeling he is going to step up again this year, so will be running on for nice placings in the WFA lead up races this year so put him in today as he will probably run on pretty well. Place. 1st W=$18.70 6-HEART OF DREAMS has probably been a little disappointing in not quite living up to his potential when tried over longer trips, but is going to be better suited if they keep him to 1600M events. Solid run 1st up in the Liston when made good ground on a wet track and probably wet tracks aren’t his thing. Strikes another wet track today. He can take up a handy position if required, but is drawn hopelessly – they either need to commit and go forward and risk being trapped wide, or drop well out. Plus side is he is the first one home from the Liston going around in this. Does normally take 2-3 runs each preparation to find best. Very consistent type though, if he is not in the placings he will be 4th or 5th. Just feel the barrier is going to make this a pretty hard task today, especially on an unsuitable wet track. Place. 2nd W=$7.10 17-BAUGHURST (emerg) is a solid on pacer, who can just mix it at WFA at his best. Wet track form is OK – but his 1st up form is a bit ordinary. Failed to really fire during the winter in QLD, but he did draw some bad barriers, and maybe he just isn’t as good that way of going? If he gets into the field here can roll along on the speed from inside barrier, so although first up form is ordinary might be worth throwing in for a value trifecta, first four as probably going to be way over the odds. Rough place chance. SCR Sacking: 2-MASTER O'REILLY is a solid WFA stayer who has made a niche out of flashing home late in WFA races to run 3rd or 4th. Still has not won a race since 2007 Caulfield Cup !. SCR from the Memsie last week because of the wet track, and wet track form is questionable. Question is whether the track is going to be any better today ?. He has put in some good runs fresh and over 1600M – is placed 4 from 8 1st up and most of the failures have been over 1200M/1400M. But outside barrier and capacity field here is going to see him dropping well back and having to come very wide which is unlikely to be the racing pattern. Plus means he has to get past an awful lot of horses. Passing . 3-ZAVITE is a solid, on pace, handicap stayer when right and thrives on lots of racing. 1st up run was a total surprise, probably ran home the best of anything in the race, and normally unsuited at WFA. Never been placed in 6 runs 1st up, 4 runs 2nd up, and seems to struggle on wet tracks, so yeah, that 1st up run still looks way out of character. Biting the bullet and going to ignore it. Maybe it was just a dream ? Drawn outside here, probably goes forward and sits handy – but is going to be posted wide. Ignoring last run, weight of form tells us this type of race is not his go. Passing. 5-REBEL RAIDER lost last spring through injury, after boil over Derby win as a 3YO. Mixed form in Autumn 2009, before striking form when taking back to SA. Pretty amazing that he won 1st up over 1200M last start – have to admit have not seen the run. 2nd up and up 400M is an ask, but the extra distance is going to suit, and the wet holds no fears. Bit of an unknown quantity, bit hard to know quite what to make of him. Is drawn well and can probably position midfield. Guess would probably just like to see him go around against this sort of class first so we can line up where he is at. Happy to let him run today and see, but is the unknown quantity here. 7-RED RULER was a late SCR at the barrier in the Memsie. To be honest think he is a bit of a pretender and has had a stack of chances to win a good WFA race in Melbourne, but never made the grade. Plus with him is that he can lob handy to the speed if required, just have been a few times where he has got perfect runs, had every chance and not really threatened to win, just threatened the box trifectas (ooh – how scary!). 2nd up and up 400M from NZ 1st up run. Dubious on wet tracks, even slightly damp tracks, wants it firm and hard so unsuitable conditions here today. Just don’t think he is up to this class. No. 8-C'EST LA GUERRE finally got onto his preferred wet track last start – finally – and excelled to run an impressive 12 of 14, actually managing to beat home two whole runners, both of which had 4 legs. As you can probably guess we have no time at all for this one – we said last start with good fresh form and finally striking a wet track it would be the one and only time we would consider him a rough chance. 14 starts in Australia, and only 1 place – though it was in the 2008 Melbourne Cup. Perpetually running on in races to suck unsuspecting punters in for the next run, but never actually threatens to get close to winning. Does prefer wet tracks, but that didn’t help much last start. In this race last year 1st up, he actually loomed up like he was going to run all over the top of them but failed to go on with it. Can’t have – think his form is appalling. 10-ALANDI is a high profile Williams import, part of a massive effort to snare the stable the Holy Grail, the Lost Ark and the 150th Melbourne Cup (not sure which of these has more religious significance?). Really don’t have much to go on, only lightly raced, is always a good sign, and had a pretend preparation during winter just to get him acclimatised. Drawn well, but you would think he is going to settle back. Guess you have to watch the betting market, but generally prefer to let these ones run and see how they go. No 11-DOCTOR FREMANTLE is another immigrant (sure there is a Stop The Boats gag in here somewhere), over here to steal our jobs and our women, and worse of all – eat our hay. Had the 1 preparation during winter, actually didn’t do very much at all, but must have been one massive spruik on him. How does he start at $10, $5 and $12 in Group 1+2 races when his form is 6-7-13 ? Another where you have to watch the market, let him run and just hope the bugger doesn’t knock you out of the quaddie. Passing. 12-MOURAYAN is another overseas Williams runner. He went around in the Liston though, and made a little ground, which surely had the Cups Doubles people falling over each other in a rush to get on. Drawn well, but still impossible to line up, so have to let run. No 14-STERLING PRINCE is a tough on pace stayer who is outclassed at WFA and wet form isn’t the best. 3rd up and up 200M, but did race handy in the Liston and might just be our leader here. Normally takes a few runs to find best so later, and over further, against weaker opposition, on a sunnier day. 18-FANJURA (emerg) is yet another New Australian, proudly waving his Aussie flag with his wattle brooch. Impressed with two wins in his 1st two runs down under, worth remembering they were just moderate handicaps, but should still have plenty of improvement to come from them. Obviously has a lot of upside and is going to be one to watch this spring. Drawn outside is going to make it tricky, likely to drop well back in this field. He didn’t quite seem to have the brilliance that the (13) did in his wins, he seems a bit more dour. Watch the market, but probably let him run if he gets into the field anyway. Summary: This is a best of a nightmare race to have a bet, probably not that much between many of these, and over ½ the field are just doing warm up laps, so you can never be quite sure if one of the imports is going to come out and run a bottler and stamp themselves as solid spring chances. There doesn’t really seem to be much pace here at all, hard to guess what is going to lead. Suspect they might go forward on 14-STERLING PRINCE, and there are a few who can settle handy - 4-DANLEIGH, 6-HEART OF DREAMS (wide?), 7-RED RULER, 13-SPEED GIFTED, 15-MONACO CONSUL, 17-BAUGHURST (emerg). Really think the winner is going to be something well drawn who settles in the 1st 4 or 5, cause in a big field with little speed it is going to be hard to chase down something that kicks after a cosy run. Keen to have something on 15-MONACO CONSUL today, like the 1st up run where he settled handy, but stuck close to the inside which was by far the worse going. Handles wet tracks and from barrier 3 he will either lead or sit perfectly just behind the speed in what is likely to be the best going. If 13-SPEED GIFTED repeats his fresh form of early last spring he probably wins this, have to respect him fresh, wet track, Flem. Blinkers on might see him racing more handy and he has more brilliance than most of these – watch the market to see how confident stable is. And suspect 9-VIGOR will run well again as he did last year, don’t think we have seen the best of this one yet. Best roughie is 16-CHARTREUX and respect 19-GHOSTMILK (emerg) if she gets into the field, especially if the rain starts coming down. Bit hard to have a serious bet in a large field with lots of unknowns – probably a win bet on the top selection and quinella on this lot. One to risk: 6-HEART OF DREAMS 2nd W=$7.10 Roughie: 16-CHARTREUX The Key: Big field, not much pace, pick something that is well drawn and will sit handy. RESULTS : Very even field, no surprise to see a bit of an upset result. Dominant win by 1-SHOCKING who does seem to have come back better this time in, and is suited by Flem and runners on track. Honest as always by 6-HEART OF DREAMS - just always seems to find one better. Really liked the run of 9-VIGOR who sat exposed on the speed, kicked early in the straight, but got swamped going towards the line - think we still have not seen the best of this one. 13-SPEED GIFTED looms early in the straight like he is going to run away with it - and stops dead - something is not right here at all. Funny run from 15-MONACO CONSUL who was hard ridden coming to the turn, stopped to take a bit of a bite out of an opponent, back got going again? |
