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FLEMINGTON : MAKYBE DIVA STAKES - 3rd Sept 2011
Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: TRUE

Betting Portfolio ($50):
Spring is finally here, the weather is starting to warm and it has been fine and sunny and dandy most of this week in Melbourne town. Fine weather heading into the weekend, with a bit of wind, so expect this track to end up a genuine GOOD and probably be pretty firm – so maybe be wary of those who need some give in the ground to show their best.

Rail goes back to TRUE here, for the first time in a while, and on a drying track don’t be surprised if we see a strong on pace bias today. Having a look back through the Track Archive on the website (under Race Menu and Horses To Follow), you will see that quite often on a dry track this meeting favours on pacers. Barriers are going to be really important, especially from the 1400M and 1600M starts and down the straight course again probably the inside will be the place to be. As always watch the first few races to see if there is a pattern, but suspect it may be hard to come from behind and win.

Not overly enthused about this program, some capacity sized fields, and some crazy, crazy short priced runners. Race 6 : 16-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN and Race 8 : 4-DECEMBER DRAW have both got huge wraps on them, both were extremely well backed 1st up - and both were beaten. Although their runs were still full of merit. Both will start extremely short today, and although they will probably win don’t think we are interested at the sort of odds which are on offer. Maybe best betting strategy is to take quinellas anchoring a well drawn, on pace runners as they are so often in the finish at Flemington over the 1400M/1600M races, and look for some value with big fields and lots of quality horses coming off ordinary 1st up runs. Oh – and check out the number of out of form Williams stable imported stayers that are going around (you may need to take off your socks so you can count on your toes as well).

RESULTS : Track races quite evenly and they can win coming from behind, though it was probably a plus to get cover in the field on a very windy day. Down the straight they come through the middle of the track, but wider seemed to be better. The bubble burst on 16-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN (less than even money about a horse that had never won at that level before??), but 4-DECEMBER DRAW never looked like losing and is going to be a major factor this spring. Tips went along OK on a tough day, the Betting Portfolio had a nice collect and we were not far off an outstanding day with a frustrating 1st and 3rd with both of our quinella bets at value odds.

BEST WIN : Race 1: 6-ERVBEFEL $5 WIN X
We have tipped this one a few times, but giving it one more chance. Still does a few things wrong and races a bit erratically, but missed the start last start when jockey was still adjusting his stirrups / updating his Facebook status when they jumped and finished on very well. Previous start down the straight got badly shuffled back along the rails and had to come out around the whole field and still ran on well. Outside draw here suits, will get clear running and come around the field, but they need to be able to run on OK. Suspect she either wins and finally puts it all together or gets sin binned after this.
RESULTS : Over races badly again at the back of the field, but pulls up last with something obviously wrong. Regardless though she has had enough chances for us and continues to race erratically so won't be backing her again.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 7-SECRET HILLS $5 WIN 3rd W=$7.30
QUINELLA : Race 2: 7-SECRET HILLS # 4, 8 (scr), 12, 14, 16 x $2 = $10 3rd 7-SECRET HILLS W=$7.30, 1st 14-SPECTER W=$10.60. SCR =$2
This one raced well 1st up and should jump to the lead there today form the inside barrier. Often hard to run down on pacers over the Flem 1400M and good chance the track is going to favour on pacers today. Should be in the finish – but instead of a boring each way bet take a quinella which should pay pretty well in a big field with lots of chances. Again focus mainly on those well drawn who should race on the speed. Chance of a decent collect here.
RESULTS : Unlucky not to get a result here and summed up the race well. The (7) got the perfect sit and dashed to the lead in the last 200M and looked home, but our other selection the (14) came out of the pack and ran him down. Not many found the winner of this race in their selections - we found the trick. Was looking at a nice value quinella with about 50M to go but another one finished on to knock us out. Interesting with the late scratching of the short priced favourite, 8-THAT'S THE ONE, that the (7) actually started equal favourite in this - at $10 ??? Most unusual.

BEST WIN Race 5: 6-PINKER PINKER, 14-ZAIRA, 7-PARABLES x $4 = $12 1st 6-PINKER PINKER W=$6.20 = 6.20 x 4 = $24.80
QUINELLA : Race 5: 6-PINKER PINKER, 14-ZAIRA, 7-PARABLES x $2 = $6 1st 6-PINKER PINKER W=$6.20 , 3rd 7-PARABLES W=$3.60
These three stand out as the main chances in this race to us, and you can make a case for each of them, so think we can back all three to win and still show a profit. The (6) was an excellent run 1st up when she just sort of moped her way through the field and finished on very well. The (7) has yet to miss the place and again eye catching run last start when flew home once she got clear. And very wary of the (14) who might kick to a clear lead from the inside barrier here and lead all the way, and has a very good winning strike rate.
RESULTS : Even though this looked a tough race on paper we were pretty confident one of these three would win - and indeed our top pick ended up winning anyway. Seemed to have the quinella covered in the last 100M again - but yet again another strong finisher knocked us out.

BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 10-CHASM $3.50 EW X
This poor fella has not won a race for three years now, but he has put in plenty of good runs in that time. In the photo finish in the Group 1 Emirates in the spring, and his runs in the Salinger, Gilgai and Standish over this track and distance were all excellent. Finished on really well 1st up, and just seems to love the Flem 1200M and firm ground. Like that he has drawn out – he might get carried to the outside rail depending on which side they go, but either way he is going to get a clear run at them and expect him to be finishing on pretty well.
RESULTS : Finished on OK just at the very end, but think they probably didn't quite go quick enough for him

LAY OF THE DAY : Race 1 : 5-CELEBRITY GIRL at $1.80 1st W=$2.30
OK we are going to soldier on despite a few of these short priced ones getting up already this spring when we have made them Lay Of The Day. Obviously if you are going to lay a horse you want to lay something that is at short odds as possible, so we are not going to wuss it and pick some 10-1 shot for this section. Last weekend there were two short priced favourites who went down in the 1st two races, often these lightly raced ones early in the day can attract a stream of money on very little exposed form. This one seems to fit that mould – big, big horse, who did a few things wrong at 1st start, but has only beat a small field at a midweeker and goes around in the red today. Obviously, stable has an opinion of her, but just looks under the odds and either something kicks, leads and win in the 1st race or our top pick finishes over the top. Seems silly odds to us.
RESULTS : Embarrassingly, for the 3rd time in 4 weeks the short priced Lay of the Day gets up and wins impressively. We could either sulk, start wussing it and start tipping 20-1 shots (which would probably win anyway), or keep on going with short priced lays and make for what could be a fantastic running joke as they continue to win week in and week out.


TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
TRIFECTA : RACE 4 : 1-SEPOY / 8-HALLOWELL BELLE / 4-GRAND BRITANNIA x $2.50
TRIFECTA : RACE 4 : 1-SEPOY / 8-HALLOWELL BELLE / 5-UNIQUE QUALITY x $2.50 1st 1-SEPOY / 2nd 8-HALLOWELL BELLE W=$10.40 / 3rd 5-UNIQUE QUALITY W=$48.10 TRI = $31.00 x 2.50 = $77.50
Obviously the favourite here is going to be close to impossible to beat. The (8) should really fill the quinella and these two finished first and second in the Blue Diamond in the Autumn. So we can try and get the trifecta multiple times with something away from the obvious for third to put some value into the dividend. The (4) is the most likely and has made a career out of running 3rds and 4ths , and let’s try the (5) just as a roughie in a small field.
RESULTS : Amazing how you can still get a decent collect with the short priced favourite winning and the 2nd favourite running second. Nice collect !!

SPENT : $50
RETURN : $104.30
NET : $+54.30



The Tips:

Race 1: 6-ERVBEFEL, 4-OAMARU ROSE , 8-PLATLET
Race 2: 7-SECRET HILLS, 8-THAT’S THE ONE, 14-SPECTER
Race 3: 16-UTAH SAINTS, 15-DELAYEDREACTION, 20-STATE GRADE (emerg), 18-GOOD VALUE (emerg)
Race 4: 1-SEPOY, 8-HALLOWELL BELLE, 4-GRAND BRITANNIA
Race 5: 6-PINKER PINKER, 14-ZAIRA, 7-PARABLES
Race 6: 14-PLAYING GOD, 16-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN, 8-GLASS HARMONIUM
Race 7: 10-CHASM, 3-ALOHA, 12-BEL SPRINTER
Race 8: 4-DECEMBER DRAW, 1-LIGHT VISION, 13-WHITE UNIVERSE



RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
6-ERVBEFEL
4-OAMARU ROSE
8-PLATLET 3rd W=$19.00

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
7-SECRET HILLS 3rd W=$7.30
8-THAT’S THE ONE SCR
14-SPECTER 1st W=$10.60 *** trick winner not many others found ***

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
16-UTAH SAINTS 3rd W=$3.90
15-DELAYEDREACTION
20-STATE GRADE SCR

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
1-SEPOY 1st W=$1.10
8-HALLOWELL BELLE 2nd W=$10.40
4-GRAND BRITANNIA

Quinella : $2.70

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
6-PINKER PINKER 1st W=$6.20
14-ZAIRA
7-PARABLES 3rd W=$3.60

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
14-PLAYING GOD
16-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN
8-GLASS HARMONIUM 2nd W=$5.00

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
10-CHASM
3-ALOHA
12-BEL SPRINTER 2nd W=$3.20

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
4-DECEMBER DRAW 1st W=$1.80
1-LIGHT VISION
13-WHITE UNIVERSE 3rd W=$6.90


RACE 6 : MAKYBE DIVA STAKES 1600M GROUP 2 WFA
Tips:
14-PLAYING GOD
16-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN
8-GLASS HARMONIUM 2nd W=$5.00

Others: 3,12,15

Pace: SLOW
Leaders : 8-GLASS HARMONIUM, 15-ONCE WERE WILD
Handy : 3-HARRIS TWEED, 5-MIDAS TOUCH, 11-ERUPTIOUS, 12-PRINCE OBAMA, 16-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN
Back : 1-MASTER O'REILLY, 2-LITTORIO, 4-MALUCKYDAY, 6-ALANDI, 7-AT FIRST SIGHT, 9-GUEST WING, 10-MY BENTLEY, 13-DON CARLOS, 14-PLAYING GOD

Chances:
8-GLASS HARMONIUM is an import, but not a Williams import, and actually came over and showed a fair bit of form during the QLD Winter Carnival. Still lightly raced and like that he has been competitive in all his Australian starts and shown genuine form. Even better he often leads, and can go to the lead here from a good barrier. Pretty hard to know how he is going to go 1st up and other way of going, but not meeting much here. On his QLD form if he jumps and races handy he is going to be right in this. Solid chance. 2nd W=$5.00

14-PLAYING GOD showed a fair bit of ability as a 3YO and think he is going to go on and be a major factor this spring. Excellent run in both the Australian Guineas and the Australian Cup, so he is placed 2 from 2 this track, dry track is going to suit, he is on the way up and drop back type who wants a firm, dry, big spacious track – so gets a lot going his way today. 2nd up and up 300M, but plenty of merit in 1st up run and at least we know he is going along OK. Drawn a middle barrier, but does tend to drop back in his races and there is unlikely to be much speed in this. Guess that is the main concern, if the track is favouring on pacers it is going to make it difficult for him, if they are running on OK he just about rates on top. Keep following him this spring regardless – he is going to step up and be one of the major players. Strong chance. 4th W=$5.40

16-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN has a major spruik on her and was sensationally backed last start against one of the best WFA horses in the country – and got beaten. And yet the stable mate last week was barely backed and won. Funny game. Didn’t have the best of luck 1st up, got pocketed and came home OK once clear to not be beaten that far – but doubt she would have won even with a clear run.
Unbeaten before that, shows a stack of potential, and big plus is that she lobs handy and puts herself into the race. Drawn nice barrier here, on pacers should be advantaged, should sit right on the speed, actually is race fit and has some form unlike many of her rivals, simply looks the one to beat. Most of this field is going nowhere fast, so this race is really hers for the taking. Suspect she is going to start very, very short though. One to beat.

Place:
3-HARRIS TWEED is a capable handicap stayer whose big plus is that he races on pace and box seats and so puts himself into the finish. He is competitive at the top level – but really think he has had every chance in the Caulfield, Melbourne and Sydney Cups last year, and again in the Melbourne Cup the year before. So he is competitive at the top level, but really can’t ever see him winning one of the majors. Just OK fresh, but there are not many in this race with form, he can probably sit in the first half of the field here and goes OK - and thus think he is worth a rough place chance here. Place.

4-MALUCKYDAY was an absolute sensation last spring when on an upward spiral and won a tough hard run Lexus, before outstanding effort to beat all but the international in an equally tough Melbourne Cup. Really looked like being the outstanding stayer in the country at that stage. Then he came back in the Autumn and was a great big flop. He ran on extremely well 1st up in the Autumn, but then started very well supported next 2 runs and really did very little. Dry track definitely suits. Been given a little trial warm up this time in , which didn’t tell us very much. Very hard to line this one up, still very lightly raced, on his best form he is the best stayer in the country at the moment Question is though if he is going to produce or not ? They have been chopping and changing a few times with his preparation, moving between Sydney and Melbourne, avoiding wet tracks, just sort of suggests they are also a bit unsure and wanting to cotton wool him a little to get everything right ? Inside draw, probably drops well back here. Watch the market as a guide, but think we need to watch him run here and see what he does. Place at best. SCR

12-PRINCE OBAMA is a lightly raced one who was yet to miss a place before last start. Was racing along nicely in the country, then out of the blue came out and run a bottler of a race in the Liston/Lawrence, to run 3rd at 100-1, beaten less than a length by two of the best horses going round at the moment. Looked to have everything going for him into the Memsie – on pacer, not much speed, should have got run of the race, and surprising actually got a bit of backing as well, despite not really being a proven WFA horse. Liston/Lawrence run was excellent as the pressure came on a fair way out and he stuck on pretty well. In the Memsie he was well positioned, but got dragged back through the field when HERCULIAN PRINCE stopped – he stuck on OK without doing all that much, but you can probably make excuses for that run. Out to the 1600M today is the challenge, and worth noting the Memsie run was the 1st time he had struck a good dry track – and was also the 1st time he missed the place. Drawn perfect barrier, will box seat here, on pace, not much speed – really has everything going for him. You just think he will hit the lead about 100M out and look a wining chance, but get swamped by one of the more classy runners. Does have race fitness over many of these though. Prefer place.

15-ONCE WERE WILD is a tough, on pace handicap stayer, who we still can’t believe got run down after kicking to such a big lead in the straight in the Lexus here last year. Still maintains a smart winning strike rate, and best form is on firm tracks. Best ridden aggressively to a big lead – but doubt 1st up over a mile they will want to employ those sort of tactics ? Drawn to get to the rails, which is likely to be the best going and should sit handy and probably wont be far away, but prefer with a few runs in and up in distance. Place.


Sacking:
1-MASTER O'REILLY is a 9 year old who has been around for a fair while now and so we know what he is on about pretty well. Dry tracks and Flemington are his go – and he gets both today. Amazingly he has still yet to win a race since the 2007 Caulfield Cup – where his main rivals got scratched, he only had 50.5 kgs and he cut the corner on the home turn. We count 26 starts now since then without a win – that’s a very, very long streak. Admittedly, most of his runs have been at WFA and he probably hasn’t been a realistic winning chance very often. He can pull out an OK run whilst fresh at WFA – often rattles home for 4th,3rd,2nd, especially on a big track. Did nothing last spring and given a full year off to rest his ageing bones. Sent back to original trainer in the bush too. Ran 3rd in this race 1st up in 2009, but coming off a long break this year will definitely need the run. No

2-LITTORIO is another one returning from a long break – a solid 1.5 years and actually didn’t expect to see him again. Like the (1) he needs a big track, dry track and to be running on out the middle of the course. Did run 3rd in this race 1st up in 2008. Drawn outside here, will drop a long way back and also likely to need the run. No 1st W=$38.70

5-MIDAS TOUCH is one of the Williams imports and quite a few of these must be close to getting marked Return To Sender and dumped at the nearest shipping terminal. Fitter for the 2 runs in, dry track, big track, extra distance you would think should suit. Actually settled up on the speed last start so might do the same thing today was a good barrier. Really didn’t show much last start so would have to improve a fair bit here. Maybe a rough place chance if the on pacers are sticking on, but really going nowhere near this lot until they show some actual form. No 3rd W=$92.10

6-ALANDI ditto the comments for the (5). Been here for 2 years now, doubt the 13th / 16th / 13th and 13th from the Group 1 winning, star stayer import is really cutting the mustard. Actually that is 4 runs in Australia now – and has only beaten home 2 horses in that time. Wonder if either of the beaten ones broke down? Is there a market on whether this one can beat home a runner or not ? Now there is a challenging bet. Oh – and no chance.

7-AT FIRST SIGHT is another of the Williams imports (they always travel in threes). Pretty sure if you buy two, you get a million dollars off the third one ? He actually showed some speed at his only Australian start, leading down the straight and even beating home three whole runners ! Won a trial since then so maybe might have some upside. Drawn out, likely to drop well back here and we just can’t go near these till they show some form. No

9-GUEST WING controversially won a protest last start and was elevated from 9th to 8th thereby costing us our OctopusBet for the First Eight Runners in order (wins a seafood platter). Well held last start, dry track and staying trips are his go but form since coming over from the West has been pretty ordinary so very hard to get enthused. No

10-MY BENTLEY has a bit of ability as s dry track handicap stayer and ran some pretty good races last spring. Didn’t do much in a quick 3 run Autumn campaign. Had two trials this time in so should be fairly forward. Normally takes a few runs to find form and going to be hard dropping back here from an inside barrier in a race with not much speed. No

11-ERUPTIOUS showed a bit of ability over winter and is only lightly raced so might be on the improve. Gotta like that he had 4 runs over here and was competitive in all of them – suggests a very genuine horse with a bit of ability. However, NZ form was only in restricted races, has only raced in Rating 68 - 78 races over here mainly, and does look a bit of a leap into a feature mile at WFA. Drawn out a little, but likely to go forward and race handy here. Suspect this is a warm up run for a country cup. Looks out of his depth in this. SCR

13-DON CARLOS is another overseas import that we need to try and line up. Lightly raced and form is just OK, and not at the top level, so don’t imagine he cost a bucket load. Well drawn. Would have to watch the market but have to be sceptical till they show some form. No

Summary: Bit of an ugly race here, the vast majority of this field are only there to wave and look on and are going nowhere fast. Really, seriously ordinary race and not even sure we really want to have a bet.

The pace should be slow, with most of these being drop back stayers. 8-GLASS HARMONIUM, 15-ONCE WERE WILD probably lead, but doubt they will send the (15) aggressively to the lead in her 1st up run. 3-HARRIS TWEED, 12-PRINCE OBAMA, 16-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN should be sitting handy, but can’t imagine they are going to go too quickly, and Flemington, dry track, 1600M is often all about barriers and on pace runners.

16-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN really has this race at her keeping, perfect barrier, not much opposition, will sit on the speed which is likely to be the place to be and will put herself into the race at the right time. Really should win – just suspect she is going to start extremely silly odds so not sure we really want to get on. TAB Fixed Odds currently have her at a $1.65 – and despite having a lot in her favour that just seems far too short for a horse that was beaten last run, against a field of 16 runners. Suspect she will start even shorter on the tote on the day. So we are going to switch to 14-PLAYING GOD who is the main danger, but will get back and try to run on – if they can, and is one of only a few here on the way up. Has a stack of potential and likely to go onto better things this spring. 8-GLASS HARMONIUM went OK last winter and should jump and be handy so should go OK. Not overly enthused about betting in this though, so probably will actually only have a small roughie bet on 3-HARRIS TWEED who should also be up on the speed and will probably be decent odds to get into the finish somewhere.


One to risk: 4-MALUCKYDAY SCR
Roughie: 3-HARRIS TWEED

The Key: Well drawn, on pace – and not imported by Lloyd Williams

RESULTS : Those on course saw something very, very special today. 2-LITTORIO, coming off a year and a half break, was last on the home turn, and absolutely flew over the top of them. Horses just don't win like that under those conditions. Astounding effort. Plenty of good runs in the first half dozen or so. 8-GLASS HARMONIUM stuck on well on pace. 14-PLAYING GOD looked the dead set cert winner about 100M out, but died on his run - hard to believe he missed the place. Follow him next start he will improve a lot on that and looks to be heading in the right direction. The run we really like though was roughie 10-MY BENTLEY, who we have always had a bit of time for, who darted along on the rails and was leading about 200M out before fading. There is a nice country cup for him somewhere. As for 16-LIGHTS OF HEAVEN, well for a website that is supposed to be critical and analytical and take on over hyped horses we totally blew it and got sucked it. Hang head in shame. She had every chance - the odds on offer were ridiculous (as stated in the preview) and we roundly canned her in the Liston Stakes form preview as these 4YO mares so rarely go on. She has ability, but to go around at those odds when she has never won at open class WFA race was lunacy.






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