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| FLEMINGTON: MAKYBE DIVA STAKES - 8th Sept 2012 | |||||
| Track: DEAD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE | |||||
| Betting Portfolio ($50): It has been a gusty, windy, tumultuous week in Melbourne - and that’s just the weather, let alone the Danny Nikolic hearing. Fair bit of rain Thursday night – but that was coming off a very windy week so the track was quite firm before that, then just showers around Friday and Saturday but because it has been so windy you would think this track would stay relatively firm. So expect a track better side of dead come race day. Rail goes back to the TRUE position here so you would think the best ground is going to be against the fence. Probably no distinct pattern, but probably want to tend towards those well drawn which is always a big plus at Flemington and those on pace. Down the straight you probably won’t want to come too wide, so a bit dubious about those drawn out in the straight races. Huge program with lots of horses resuming and big even fields so expect lots of long shots to pop into the placings, and especially watch out for long shot place getters suddenly improving as we get more into spring. Best betting strategy is to spread your win bets around, in some of these races you can probably back 3-4 horses to win at odds. The Bobbie Lewis in particular looks a incredibly hard race to line up. We have gone a bit long shot crazy in the tips, but suspect there are going to be some decent sized winners today so might as well be a little ambitious. Quite like the following value runners for a bit of an each way play today. RESULTS : Track ends up a GOOD(3) on a very windy day, which meant that horses needed cover and most of the races were won by horses known for their finishing bursts. Which means if you are giving out tips and you have picked on pacers at odds all day you are pretty much well and truly stuffed. So the tips truly sucked. Pretty good days racing though, especially in the main event and plenty of horses to follow going forward. BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 9-BIANCON ROSE $7 WIN X QUINELLA : Race 4: 9-BIANCON ROSE, 10-TOTAL ATTRACTION x $3 X / 3rd 10-TOTAL ATTRACTION 3rd W=$6.00 QUINELLA : Race 4: 9-BIANCON ROSE, 11-BONARIA x $3 X QUINELLA : Race 4: 9-BIANCON ROSE, 12-TWILIGHTING x $2 X We are going to give this one another go – pretty much an identical bet to last week. Was probably a little unlucky last week when apprentice jockey did seem to go a little aggressively and go for home a little early, and looked gone half way down the straight so fair effort to hang on for 2nd. Jockey change here a big plus, should be fitter for the 2 runs in, can go forward here from barrier and sit on pace over the Flem 1400M. Looks good each way value at around $11. We will do the same thing as last week and try and get some value with quinellas rather than a each way place bet, going away from the favourite the (4), and going with the (10), (11), (12) – again the key being well drawn on pace runners. RESULTS: Pace is fast into a headwind and that meant the on pacers folded up pretty quickly - despite leading our one dropped out quickly to finish near the end. Still disappointing. BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 17-INSTINCTION $5 EW X The Bobbie Lewis is an impossible race, but have been following this one and think he is under rated. Also love that his 3 wins have been at $1.60, $31 and $20 – he does have a habit of popping up at odds. Flemington record is good, dry track is a big plus and despite being well beaten in a small field on a heavy track last start actually quite liked the run – he loomed up like he was going to run into it before the turn but obviously struggled in the going. From a nice middle barrier here camped on the speed suspect he may do something at around $21 in a very tough race. Probably get out to better odds on the tote in a big field. RESULTS: Stuck to inside, and loomed up about the 200M, but those on the inside hit a brick wall whilst those fighting out the finish zoomed down the outside with cover from the wind. Wasn't a bad run, actually keep following this one. BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 9-FREE OF DOUBT $5 EW X Got a bit of time for this one and think he may be one on the way up. Perfect position on the rails 1st up and tried very hard to the line, and 2nd up just drifted too far back on a track that was favouring on pacers and tried very hard out wide. Fitter for the 3 runs in, drawn an inside barrier, can go and position right on the speed and make his own luck over the Flem 1400M and think has some improvement to come. Likely to be about the finish and the $15 odds look pretty appealing. RESULTS: Got a nice on pace sit, but never finished it off. Disappointing. BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 13-POPULAR ACCLAIM $2.50 EW X Very tough opening race, and it may sound crazy, but can’t see any reason not to have something on the rank outsider of the field here at around $61. Fitter for the 2 runs in, tried hard on heavy track last start, drawn an inside barrier and will race on the speed and at least be around the finish at the right time. Has been around the money pretty every start so might just poke through at odds here at the business end of the race. Bit hard to bet seriously in such a tough field, so might as well go for a collect at odds. RESULTS: Seemed to be travelling about 200M out on the speed, but the wind and the class took its toll and faded badly. TRIFECTA: Race 5 : 1, 9 / 1, 9 / 4,5 x $5 = 125% 1st 9-SNITZERLAND W=$1.40 / 3rd 1-RUSAMBO W=$10.20 / 2nd 4-STRALIA W=$12.90 The 9-SNITZERLAND is the shortest priced runner of the day and should just about win, but sheesh really like the way the 1-RUSAMBO is going, winning running on strongly and you would think the Flemington 1200M is really going to suit. So these two should really fight this race out, and maybe, just maybe the (1) is capable of an upset here, so try and get some value in the trifecta by going out to longer priced runners for third. RESULTS: Not far off a collect here, with the favourite just getting up. The 1-RUSAMBO was held up for ages and finished on really well when clear, unfortunately he bled and has gone for a spell, but has been really flying this preparation. The one to follow here is definitely 4-STRALIA who might really go on to better things this spring. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4 : 4-LADY MELKSHAM at around $3.30 5th W=$2.90 This section is just so dangerous, as we have shown the last two weeks with the Lay of The Day winning, but no wussing it, you need to pick a lay bet under $4 or so and take a stand. Coming off a tough win, but there was a strong on pace bias that day and she landed in the right spot. Goes up in weights, meets the (11) 3.5kgs worse off and that one is going to be better suited over the 1400M here. 1st time over 1400M, drawn outside barrier, so be interesting to see if they go forward or back over the Flem 1400M. Has a huge rap on her, so very likely to start poor value and happy to go around her today. RESULTS: Gets very well backed, but gets caught out wide into head wind from outside barrier. Actually hits the lead near the 200M but gets swamped going to the line. Despite being a successful lay, actually think she is worth following next start now - was a solid effort to be so wide and still give a kick. TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. BOX QUINELLA : Race 2 : 4,6,9,13,14 x 50 cents = $5 X Frustratingly we have found some huge value in this section in the last 2 weeks – just not in the bet we have taken !. So let’s keep it simple and just go a 5 horse box quinella in Race 2, mainly cause we think the (9) is value and will run a race, the (6) and the (14) were good at MV, and there may be some value if the ones coming through the provincials step up. RESULTS: Hey nice work Turf Deli - you picked 5 horses and couldn't even get a place getter ! SPENT : $50 RETURN : $0 NET : $-50 | |||||
| The Tips: Race 1: 13-POPULAR ACCLAIM, 7-AGUEDA, 10-PROPER MADAM Race 2: 9-FREE OF DOUBT, 6-DOMINANT, 13-BEL THOR Race 3: 16-MISTER MILTON, 19-MORANT(emerg), 4-LAUNAY, 5-MR CHARD Race 4: 9-BIANCON ROSE, 10-TOTAL ATTRACTION, 11-BONARIA Race 5: 9-SNITZERLAND, 1-RUSAMBO, 4-STRALIA Race 6: 2-MANIGHAR, 11-SOUTHERN SPEED, 6-MAWINGO Race 7: 17-INSTINCTION, 8-SHANGHAI WARRIOR , 9-SPEEDINESS Race 8: 13-OAK HEART, 6-EXCLUDED, 11-BUXTED | |||||
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| RACE 1: RESULTS | |||||
| Tips: 13-POPULAR ACCLAIM 7-AGUEDA 2nd W=$2.60 10-PROPER MADAM | |||||
| RACE 2: RESULTS | |||||
| Tips: 9-FREE OF DOUBT 6-DOMINANT 13-BEL THOR | |||||
| RACE 3: RESULTS | |||||
| Tips: 16-MISTER MILTON 4-LAUNAY 5-MR CHARD | |||||
| RACE 4: RESULTS | |||||
| Tips: 9-BIANCON ROSE 10-TOTAL ATTRACTION 3rd W=$6.00 11-BONARIA | |||||
| RACE 5: RESULTS | |||||
| Tips: 9-SNITZERLAND 1st W=$1.40 1-RUSAMBO 3rd W=$10.20 4-STRALIA 2nd W=$2.60 Quinella: $6.70 Trifecta: $40.00 | |||||
| RACE 6: RESULTS | |||||
| Tips: 2-MANIGHAR 2nd W=$3.00 11-SOUTHERN SPEED 1st W=$3.90 6-MAWINGO Quinella : $5.00 | |||||
| RACE 7: RESULTS | |||||
| Tips: 17-INSTINCTION 8-SHANGHAI WARRIOR 9-SPEEDINESS | |||||
| RACE 8: RESULTS | |||||
| Tips: 13-OAK HEART 6-EXCLUDED 1st W=$1.80 11-BUXTED | |||||
| RACE 6: MAKYBE DIVA STAKES GROUP 2 1600M | |||||
| Tips: 2-MANIGHAR 2nd W=$3.00 11-SOUTHERN SPEED 1st W=$3.90 6-MAWINGO Quinella : $5.00 | |||||
| Others: 12, 5,9 Pace: EVEN Leaders : 12-DANCE WITH HER Handy : 3-MOURAYAN, 4-MIDAS TOUCH, 6-MAWINGO, 7-SECOND EFFORT, 9-SHENZHOU STEEDS Back : 1-EFFICIENT, 2-MANIGHAR, 5-DECEMBER DRAW, 8-MOUDRE, 10-ZABEELIONAIRE, 11-SOUTHERN SPEED Chances: 2-MANIGHAR was the surprise make-over of Autumn. How did the plodding one paced European stayer who was around the finish (but never a factor) in the Cups for a few years, turn into the dashing WFA horse ? Remember standing at Caulfield watching his 1st up win in Autumn, and trying to work out which horse it was – surely not ? Not MANIGHAR ? The one-paced plodder? With no brilliance ? Winning in dashing style 1st up over 1600M? No – seriously ? The 1st up win last preparation was simply brilliant and showed class and a sure sign that he was going to go on – and he did just that, being in the finish or wining in 5 Groups 1s all over the country. Totally different horse from the one trained overseas, and really think if he repeats his 1st up run last time in he just about wins this. Might not be quite as forward this time in with some spring majors on the radar. Should get good cover from the barrier and likely to be finishing on strongly at the end of the race. Strong chance. 2nd W=$3.00 6-MAWINGO is a lightly raced, highly regarded, import become local (as most as this field is, representing the very best of Australian racing). Eye catching win 1st up here in the Autumn, then competitive through QLD winter campaign – can’t really knock his runs, but maybe, just maybe, expected him to do just a little more ? Had 2 trial wins coming into this, so looks like he will be very forward and you would expect some further improvement again after his first campaign as he gets used to the Australian way of life. Wonder if he might be more of 1600M to 2000M WFA horse than a stayer ? Big plus with this one is he can position handy – and that is going to make a big difference here. Looks a strong chance in this sort of race, not sure he is going to live up to expectations later in the spring , but probably going to be a factor against these. Strong chance. 11-SOUTHERN SPEED is last year’s Caulfield Cup winner who just about seems to be going better this time in. Followed up the successful spring campaign with competitive runs in most of the Autumn WFA Group 1 races. Both runs this time in have been excellent, showing her customary pull out wide and finish on hard skills – even if they have been in weaker class over in Adel. She came to hand quickly during the Autumn too, it was just last spring when she seemed to take a while to strike form and seemed to have a lot of her finish dulled to run a distance. Big track here will suit, firm track is a big plus if the rain stays away and has race fitness and winning form on most of these. Would be good to see a local beat the imports !. Comes down to speed here, if they go fast enough to allow her to run on, though guess from middle barrier there is no reason why she can’t race a little closer, like midfield and jockey normally knows what he is doing. Strong chance. 1st W=$3.90 12-DANCE WITH HER was an utter and total surprise packet during the Autumn, as she went from fairly standard 2000M on pace wet tracker, to competitive runs in listed and group company in very quick succession. Amazing to see that level of improvement in a 5YO mare with more than 30 starts. Maybe we should go back and try for the AFL draft again ? If you followed her you would have loved the long priced wins as she went on a rapid upward spiral. Likely leader here and probably gets own way in front, so be aware if the track is favouring on pacers. Won 1st up over 1600M last time in. Up against these though she would probably want a wet track to be competitive. Likely to be in this for a while though, so put in as a rough chance in trifectas. Rough. Place: 3-MOURAYAN is a solid import, become local, who was looking like being a factor in the Melbourne Cup last year after his Mackinnon run, but sustained an injury and didn’t make it come race day. Solid stayer with ability, just the one warm up, cobweb shake out run during the Autumn. He can race forward if required, and there is not much speed here, but stable generally don’t have their Cup runners primed 1st up , and always pays to watch out for riding tactics on race day (as we learned from GREEN MOON’s practice jog last week). Normally takes a few runs to run into form, but if they went forward here with not much speed he may be a rough place chance. Rough place. 4th W=$70.70 5-DECEMBER DRAW was a major contender last Spring and the best thing about him is that he showed a real determination to win, flattening out and chasing down horses when required. Forget the run in the Caulfield Cup when short priced favourite when badly injured. Given a solid year to relax, take it easy, swim a few laps of the pool and chill out. Unbeaten at Flemington – four from four, and he has the dash and turn of foot to win this even if it is run at a muddling speed. Firm track is a plus. Should get a really good smother here from an inside barrier. Guess the question mark is coming off a year break, off a bad injury, how forward is he going to be? You would think they wouldn’t want to test him too much. He is featuring in most of the trackwork reports at the moment so seems to be going pretty well. Maybe watch out for trainer interviews and watch the market – at the moment just assuming he might need the run, but on his best would win this. Prefer place. 9-SHENZHOU STEEDS is a lightly raced local (well NZ is kinda local, yeah?) on the up with lofty ambitions this spring. Improved rapidly during the winter going through his classes. Just looking at his form he does seem to go better on tracks with some give in them, and not sure the track is going to be wet enough today. Still a big jump in class again here. Likely to go forward here as well which is good in these muddling WFA races. Will probably put in a forward run here and look a chance halfway down the straight, whether he has the class at the finish at WFA is the question mark. Prefer place. Sacking: 1-EFFICIENT is the old, grey fella who keeps popping up unexpectedly at random during the Spring Carnival. Got a few issues so only pops up now and then for a few runs and has to have his preparations really meticulously planned. Managed four solid runs during Autumn, and put in his best run in ages in the Sydney Cup. Best form is definitely at Flemington, with VRC Derby, Melbourne Cup and Turnbull Stakes wins – and you don’t get much tougher tasks than that. Generally takes a few runs to run into form each preparation, but the firm track here will suit and chance he may be back to form and might go a little better fresh than expected. However, does drop back and there is not much pace here at all and he would probably want to be running on off a furious pace 1st up to be a factor here. No 4-MIDAS TOUCH is another import, become local who looked the goods last spring with some very tough on pace runs before sustaining an injury. Fitter for the 2 runs in and the firm track , extra distance and Flemington is a big plus. Both runs this time in have been disappointing , showed surprising speed early here 1st up over 1200M, but dropped out quickly, and then expected he might do something at Caulfield last start, but out the back and never a factor. Watch for riding tactics – you would think they would go forward ? Worth noting that he ran a tough, on pace 3rd in this race last year with lead up form that was identically utterly and totally crap - so always the chance that he can rapidly improve and do it again. Likely to improve – just can’t be convinced how he is going and have to let run today. No SCR 7-SECOND EFFORT is an out and out wet tracker who surprised with his very forward run in the Memsie Stakes on a dry track, where he was very competitive. Should be fitter with the 3 runs in and at peak today. Got perfect conditions to suit in Liston Stakes win, extremely heavy track, on pacers favoured, he sticks out so much with the wonderful benefit of hindsight. Settled handy and pulled out at the right time to challenge in the Memsie. Is going to race handy here – probably unlikely to lead being a serious question mark at the distance. 1st time past 1400M, having always been a sprinter till a few weeks ago. From barrier 4 is likely to get the perfect on pace sit as well off a mudding tempo. But just suspect some of these are going to be too strong at the end of a Flemington 1600M and will be finishing all over the top of him. No 8-MOUDRE was in flying form in Spring 2010, but couldn’t get a ticket into the Cups despite looking everywhere all spring. Just the three runs Autumn 2011, which were a little ordinary, before injury struck and has been on the side lines since then. Backmarker with a strong finishing burst, who needs the big tracks, pace on and drawn to the outside. Unlikely to be the pace to suit today and probably going softly to work him back into form after a long break. Passing. 3rd W=$50.80 10-ZABEELIONAIRE is a classic 3YO Derby horse going into his 4YO season and so often that is another step again and it is really hard to judge which ones will step up and which ones will not. Solid run finishing hard in the VRC Derby, and was probably lucky to win the SA Derby courtesy of a very tight rails run from jockey Oliver. Firm track here is a plus, query on wet ground, but likely to drop well back here 1st up from inside barrier and suspect he might need the run 1st up. Passing. Summary: Actually a pretty even field here, with the majority of these being 1st up over the 1600M, so it is really hard to judge how forward these are going to be and who has improved over the winter break. Probably only a few of these who you could definitely rule out as a winning chance, most of these have the ability to win this sort of race under the right conditions. There are few here who can race handy, but doubt there are going to be any gut busting runs with most of these heading towards greater glory later in the year. Likely leader is 12-DANCE WITH HER, but she doesn’t normally burn along, just roll on speed, with 3-MOURAYAN, 4-MIDAS TOUCH, 6-MAWINGO, 7-SECOND EFFORT, 9-SHENZHOU STEEDS all capable of racing handy. Probably more likely to see the (6), (7), (9) though up on the speed. Pace looks even, but not fast, but being Flemington they should be able to peel off into clear running and get into the finish here if they are good enough. Sticking with 2-MANIGHAR on top here, just can’t get over how he changed from a plodder to a finishing burst WFA horse, and 1st up win last time in was really impressive so suspect he is going to do something similar here. Arch rival 11-SOUTHERN SPEED, carrying the Australian flag as the main danger, and should get enough speed here to bring her into it. 6-MAWINGO will probably race closer to the speed than these and present at the right time so looks the other danger. Actually not that keen to bet on this though, lots of 1st up horses, lots of unknowns and really not that much between a few of these on best form so looks a very even field. This field seems quite strong this year, worth noting if you look back over the years that this race has sprung a few surprises and the winners aren’t always of the highest standard. One to risk: - Roughie: 12-DANCE WITH HER The Key: WFA turn of foot off even tempo RESULTS: Fantastic tactical race, dawdling speed, plus all the jockeys are cowering for cover with a ferocious head wind. 2-MANIGHAR incredibly unlucky, held up for runs most of the straight trying to get clear and came with a almighty finishing burst and seemed to have won on the line - but somehow 11-SOUTHERN SPEED stuck her head down just at the right time. Still in shock at 2-MANIGHAR, how he has changed, this run was gigantic and suspect he has improved even further and is going to go on this spring and be pretty dominant. 8-MOUDRE no luck as well getting runs and looks to be back. The other run that was actually pretty good was 7-SECOND EFFORT, 1600M 1st try, caught wide, and into the head wind most of the straight and stuck on OK - jump back on him in something weaker and shorter next start.
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