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| FLEMINGTON: MAKYBE DIVA STAKES - 7th Sept 2013 |
| Track: DEAD (4) - Weather: FEW SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): Fine and sunny most of the week in Melbourne, with frowny clouds and a few showers heading into the weekend, but this track should remain on the better side of dead. Rail goes back to TRUE here so we should have even racing, coming off the rail out 9M here a few weeks back. There is also a bit of wind forecast, and it has been a noticeable pattern at this meeting for the last 2 years on windy days that those with cover and those running on late from well back were featuring – so watch out to see if the track is favouring those running on again. Down the straight there are big fields so the speed should be on and look for strong finishers in clear running room in the middle of the track. Remember you can view our Track Archive of racing patterns for feature meetings for the last 15 years under Race Menu and Horses To Follow at www.turfdeli.com.au For the omen elections bettors, you are spoilt for choice, with Race 1: 1-RUUD (RUDD) AWAKENING and 6-SWING VOTE, and bit hard to go past Race 8: 16- A TIME FOR JULIA. Big solid fields and there is a fair bit of depth and variety in these fields with lots of winning chances, so don’t be scared to go for value and back multiple horses straight out to win, as there is sure to be a lot of value around. Heaps to bet on today so we are going to double our Betting Portfolio up to $100. Actually going to end up having a bet in most of these races – so must be a great betting day. RESULTS: Track races quite fairly and every horse has its chance. Value winners from start to finish on a very difficult card, but we managed to find some of them and post a profit in the Betting Portfolio. BEST BET: Race 1: 2-METASTASIO $10 WIN 4th W=$3.60 QUINELLA: Race 1: 2-METASTASIO, 9-ANNENBERG x $5 X Been racing really well and one of many unlucky runners last start at Caulfield when finished with a bit of gusto. Winner down the straight before, and although there are quite a few unknown up and comers in this race, this one is race fit, in form and should get a clear run on the speed from the barrier. Thought the $4.50 or so on offer was actually pretty good value to kick the day off – was expecting something closer to $3.50 as these early races often the favourite starts under the odds. Back straight out and save on the quinella with the (9) who has probably improved over the break and looks the main danger. RESULTS: Box seats all the way and looms at the right time - but quickly beaten. Had every chance and a bit disappointing. BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 6-BONARIA $10 EW 4th W=$9.60 Well established she is one of our favourites and happy to back her today. Under rated and just keeps starting over the odds – even better she keeps starting over the odds and running well – especially here at Flemington. Placed 4 from 6 here in some pretty good races. Big field should ensure a solid tempo, she is drawn out, but likes to drop back and best runs are running on late out wide. Meets the others from Caulfield 1kgs better, should have plenty of improvement on that run and worth noting she stuck with them over the last 50M there. Quite keen to get on each way at the $14 on offer and watch for her storming down the outside late. RESULTS: Just gets one set further back from most of her main rivals and comes with a very strong finish to just be nosed out of third - darn it. Fitter for the 2 runs in and always tries so keep following this one - she is ready to win now. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 11-HILL SPY $7 EW X This one has been very well backed since the betting opened, $10 into around $6 now which is probably a bit shorter than we wanted in a tough even field. Only had the 2 runs, but both have been full of promise, and fought on really well out wide behind the (2) last start. Strong finisher who is likely to be suited down the straight. There is a stack of speed in this race, which should set it up for the runners on, and he looks well placed here – drawn out to the middle of the track to get a clear run at them, finishing wide and hard and late. Solid each way bet, but was hoping to get closer to the $10. RESULTS: Seems totally lost down the straight and never looks likely. BEST PLACE: Race 6: 5-FORETELLER $3 WIN, $12 PLACE 1st W=$15.90, P=$3.30 = 3 x 15.90 + 12 x 3.30 = $87.30 QUINELLA: Race 6: 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE, 5-FORETELLER x $5 1st 5-FORETELLER W=$15.90, 2nd 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE W=$2.10 Quinella = $13.40 = $67 QUINELLA: Race 6: 5-FORETELLER#1,3,9 x $1 = $3 Happy to win a weighted placed bet on the value runner the 5-FORETELLER in the main race. Proven at this level, we know his ability from previous campaigns and think he is under rated. Really liked the first up run when he finished on really strongly. The favourite the (8) is the one to beat obviously, so have a weighted place bet at around W=$17, P=$3.80 and take quinellas with the favourite and some play ambitious quinellas with the (1),(3),(9). RESULTS: Spot on in the main race - bit hard to tip against the favourite, but we find the value winner for a nice collect. Very gettable $2323 trifecta following the form analysis for the main race as well. BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 10-CHOSEN TO FLY $5 EW X Big field down the straight so might as well go for something at odds. This one has a heap of ability when right and knows how to win, already a 3 times winner here at Flem. Impressed coming off a long injury lay off last start at MV when stuck on well for 3rd on speed – and they went really fast that day and the swoopers dominated that race. Is 2nd up and up 200M and his 1200M form doesn’t look that flash as early in his career he was struggling to run this trip – but they managed to get him winning over 1400M last preparation. Lots of speed here, so probably just wants to take a sit in this, but drawn middle to race on speed and get a clear run into the race and sure to be lots of hard luck stories in this race. Definitely worth something each way at around $26. RESULTS: Settles on speed 2nd on a very frantic pace and gets swamped towards the line. Would keep following this one too, think he will get back to his best very shortly. BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 6-BONNE NUIT $5EW X QUINELLA: Race 3: 6-BONNE NUIT#5,9 x $1.50 = $3 X / 1st 9-DESERT JEUNEY W=$5.30 Again we are playing favourites and we did back this one last week, but happy to get on again today. Absolutely flying at the moment, and win here this track and distance 2 starts ago was super impressive – went around the field in a flash at the top of the straight and held them for the entire length of the straight, which is hard to do – whilst still racing with her head on the side. Stepped up a lot in class last week at Caulfield and the run wasn’t actually that bad – she took a while to get into clear running from an inside barrier, she doesn’t like being inside horses and she matched it with FOLDING GEAR running home nicely. This race looks much more suitable, drawn a nice outside barrier which is what she wants and keen to back her at the $17 or so on offer and go for a nice collect with the other main chances the (5) and (9). RESULTS: Gets stuck inside again and is coming home really well when is forced to go back to the inside rather than take outside run. Well held after that, so doubt she would have won, but suspect if she had got to the outside of horses as her momentum was building nicely about 200M out she would have been in the finish. Keep following. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 7: 3-REBEL DANE at around $2.60 4th W=$2.40 So far, three weeks into Spring Campaign, 3 Lays of the Day for 2 winners is not a very pretty statistic. But surely we can’t go wrong taking on a super short priced favourite in a capacity field down the straight? Just hard to take $2.60 in a field of 19 down the straight – anything can happen and often does. Drawn inside, there is a stack of speed here, but suspect he might struggle for runs dropping back along the inside in a big field, and this race is likely to be won by a swooper coming home down the middle of the track. Happy to back others at odds or lay this one at around $2.60 which looks way too short in a big field. RESULTS: Really happy to lay this one, 19 horse field down the straight really the last thing you want to do is to be backing short priced favourites. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. TRIFECTA: Race 4: 2,7 / 2,7,9,10,13,14,16,17(scr) / 2,7,14,16,17(scr) x $5 = 10.41% 2nd 7-DANY THE FOX W=$2.70 / X / 3rd 16-GARUD W=$17.70 SCR $1.85 Race 4 looks a good race to try and chase a trifecta collect. The 2-PAGO ROCK and 7-DANY THE FOX look the two wining chances, both racing on speed over the Flem 1400M. In a race with lots of fresh horses, good chance something will run on for the placings at odds so load up the 2nd position and mainly interested in the (14), (17) and the (16) who has good fresh form as the value place getters. RESULTS: Not far off here in theory anyway. 7-DANY THE FOX starts super silly odds on the tote as he often does, and only just get nabbed on the line by a fresh horse at odds - but one we left out. The value place getter 16-GARUD hangs on for third so points for working out, but just the wrong answer. SPENT: $100 RETURN: $156.15 NET: $+56.15 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 2-METASTASIO, 9-ANNENBERG, 3-BULBULA Race 2: 2-CAUTHEN, 7-SHAMUS AWARD, 8-WEINHOLT Race 3: 6-BONNE NUIT, 5-BELLS OF TROY, 9-DESERT JEUNEY Race 4: 2-PAGO ROCK, 7-DANY THE FOX, 14-FLYINGCONI Race 5: 11-HILL SPY, 15-SCANDIVA, 17-GREGERS Race 6: 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE, 5-FORETELLER, 1-MANIGHAR Race 7: 10-CHOSEN TO FLY, 6-SPEEDINESS, 12-BRITISH GENERAL Race 8: 6-BONARIA, 16-A TIME FOR JULIA, 17-TEXT’N’HURLEY(emerg), 2-DEAR DEMI |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-METASTASIO 9-ANNENBERG 3-BULBULA 2nd W=$13.20 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-CAUTHEN 7-SHAMUS AWARD 8-WEINHOLT 2nd W=$24.60 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-BONNE NUIT 5-BELLS OF TROY 9-DESERT JEUNEY 1st W=$5.30 |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-PAGO ROCK 7-DANY THE FOX 2nd W=$2.70 14-FLYINGCONI |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-HILL SPY 15-SCANDIVA 17-GREGERS |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE 2nd W=$2.10 5-FORETELLER 1st W=$15.90 1-MANIGHAR Quinella: $13.40 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-CHOSEN TO FLY 6-SPEEDINESS 1st W=$18.90 12-BRITISH GENERAL |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-BONARIA 16-A TIME FOR JULIA 3rd W=$7.40 17-TEXT’N’HURLEY |
| RACE 6: MAKYBE DIVA STAKES GROUP 1 1600M WFA |
| Tips: 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE 2nd W=$2.10 5-FORETELLER 1st W=$15.90 1-MANIGHAR Quinella: $13.40 |
| Others:9,3,13 Pace: SLOW Leaders: 9-TUSCAN FIRE Handy: 7-DECEMBER DRAW, 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE, 15-LET'S MAKE ADEAL Back: 1-MANIGHAR, 2-MOURAYAN, 3-MR MOET, 4-ETHIOPIA, 5-FORETELLER, 6-SEA MOON, 10-MASKED MARVEL, 12-WALDPARK, 14-BIT OF HELL Chances: 1-MANIGHAR was a one paced dour 4th to 6th Melbourne Cup plodder from overseas till Moody pulled an extreme make over on him and he become a WFA turn of foot top liner. Very impressive turn around – but with LIDARI and IBICENCO winning 1st up last week as well it does seem stable knows the trick to getting these imports to preform fresh. Slashing Autumn 2012 campaign when he was in the finish of everything, then was a certainty beaten in this race last year when he was held up for a run and came with a devastating burst and really looked like he had got there on the line in a deceiving photo finish. Actually thought he had won and was already lining up to collect. Looked to have last spring at his mercy but bowed out with injury soon after. Took a while to get into any form last Autumn and probably did race below his best. Guess listen to the media to see if they think they have him right again, but should have won this race last year, and won 1st up over 1600M in Autumn 2012 so if he is right he can give this a push fresh. Just wants to get a clear run – unlike last year. Chance. 5-FORETELLER is one we actually have a lot of time for and think is rather under rated. Had a super preparation last Autumn, going around and being competitive in just about everything. Still perplexed that Cassidy jumped off him in the BMW after running on strongly to finish beaten less than 2 lengths to announce “he doesn’t stay”?? Is an import originally, but been around for a few years now and has the lingo down pat. 1st up run was pretty good, they ran along, but he really worked home well over the 1400M. Likely to drop back again, and there isn’t much speed here, but drawn middle to run on late and he is one we like at odds heading towards the Cups. Should improve from last run which showed some promise. Think he might do something today. Chance. 1st W=$15.90 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE is correctly pronounced PUSS ANTZ THE LOON in your bestest Australian accent. Burst onto the scene last spring with a jaw dropping win in the Queen Elizabeth on Stakes Day and has had punters eagerly awaiting his return this spring because really he could be absolutely anything. Didn’t disappoint 1st up when was suited by the fast speed, and loped through the field from last and went past them in a flash, whilst chatting on his mobile and updating his Facebook status - and did it with some ease – now THAT is called a flash of brilliance. Obviously the one to beat here, there is a lot more depth in this race, but he also has the big plus of having race fitness against most of these. Main danger is that one of the imports pulls out a slashing run whilst fresh. Normally not much speed in this race, and unlikely to be this year either, drawn well and can race handy so might race more forward today. Pretty hard to see him being beaten on the last run and going to be fascinating to see exactly what he is capable of this spring. One to beat. 2nd W=$2.10 9-TUSCAN FIRE is a tough on pacer who is going to pinch a decent race somewhere this spring. Surprised everyone with his 1st up win at 100-1, but his Autumn form was really good in weaker staying races running along in the lead. Drier track suits, and Flemington record is excellent only missing the place here once in 6 starts. Has a big plus of race fitness on these, and should be further improved with the 2 runs in. Tough lunging effort 1st up, and then was OK 2nd up at MV when a bit more one paced but still worked home quite well. Drawn 1 – and would really like them to take him to the lead here, should be just about ready to go and expect he is going to run a bit of a race at odds if they do. Close to nothing to contest with him on the speed here. Probably gets outclassed at WFA, but definite good roughie for your trifectas and 1st fours and put him in . Rough. Place: 3-MR MOET is a well performed WA stayer who came over here during Autumn and went along OK, but was probably slightly disappointing. Firmer track suits and has had 3 barrier trials leading into this so might be fairly forward. 1st up form is actually pretty good – won the Railway Stakes 1st up which is a pretty fair effort, and did run a nice 3rd in the C.F.Orr off a freshen up in the Autumn. Main issue is that he drops back and needs the speed on and that looks unlikely here. Will probably run better than expected and not be too far behind these, but prefer later. Place best 13-MOUDRE was all the rage a few springs ago when he burst onto the scene with his devastating finishing bursts, but things haven’t really gone his way since then. Obviously has had quite a few issues and is very sparingly raced. Actually he has only had 4 starts now since March 2011 – which is roughly about the last time we tipped a winner. Ran a huge race in this race last year, finishing 3rd and was really unlucky as he couldn’t get clear for ages and sprung out of the ground when he did. His trial form wasn’t much better last year either and has had two plain trials again this year leading into this. Does prefer some give in the ground, and probably gets enough here. 3 times winner at Flem, placed 3 of 4 1st up so a few ticks for him today. His main problem is that he drops so far back he always needs the speed on and needs lots of luck. Unlikely to be much speed here at all. Will probably put in a run today though and be finishing on well. Place chance. 3rd W=$72.10 Sacking: 2-MOURAYAN is a tough on pace Williams stable stayer who always improves with hard racing. Best runs are on speed over further and normally takes a run or two to find best each time in – yet to win from 9 x 1st up runs isn’t a positive sign for this. Firmer track suits. Did actually run a nice 4th in this race last year, but likely to start long odds here and prefer later in the spring. No 4-ETHIOPIA is one of the few locally bred horses going towards the Cups so is indeed a rarity. Had a huge spruik on him as a lightly raced stayer that he was going to be the Great Aussie Hope in the mad rush to import, import, import. Rose rapidly through the ranks as a 3YO, then impressed everyone with on pace 4th in the Cox Plate, but had issues come Cup Day and didn’t show his best. Big track and Flemington is going to suit a drop back run on type who needs room and let’s hope he can go on and get back to his best form this spring, but need to see him do it first before getting on board with our cash. No 6-SEA MOON is an extremely highly rated Williams import – with an owner whose Melbourne Cup fascination has now varied to the point where he now buys all horses with lunar references. Had close to a full year off the track, and has been working well with stable mate with the same surname. Lightly raced with good win strike rate, but you just know with the huge spruik on him he is going to start well under the odds. May live up to the press coverage too, but actually prefer to let him run today and see how he goes. Happy to risk. 7-DECEMBER DRAW is another import who has been around a few seasons now so at least we can line up his ability and nuances. Flemington, firm track is his go – 4 times winner here. Been struck down a few times with injury but on his best form is right in this race. Hasn’t raced for more than a year. Didn’t do much in this race last year off a similar lay off, but quickly found form after that. Only had 5 runs in 2 years now which is a bit of a worry, but stable showed last week they are pretty good at being patient and getting their horses right. Probably is one of the few that can go forward here. Watch market to see if there are any moves for him, but prefer to see and wait till he finds his form again though. No 10-MASKED MARVEL is…wait for it..an import ! How exotic. Williams stable runner who has been more low profile than his lunar stable mates and might need a few runs and distance to get into form. Later. 11-BEATEN UP SCRATCHED 12-WALDPARK is a German import so you are really guessing again and no matter how many repeats of Hogan’s Heroes you watch, it really isn’t going to help. Given a barrier trial here and that is about all you have to go on. Watch the market, but again prefer to wait and see these imports before getting on. Passing. 14-BIT OF HELL is another import who looked full of promise in his brief Autumn appearance, but then did nothing 1st up this spring in a race where they did crawl along so the tempo probably did not suit. That was the first time he has missed the place in 15 starts. Drawn wide, will drop back and there isn’t much speed here at all. Likely to improve on last run, but this is far harder and coming off a questionable run prefer to see him go around. No 15-LET'S MAKE ADEAL is a novelty in this field, being a local and having raced in such exotic locations as Tatura and Wangaratta. And “adeal” is so not a word. Rising rapidly in class and although she has shown some staying promise outclassed at this level. Might be one of the few to go forward here. Question is at 200-1 does she have a better chance of winning than K.Rudd? No. 4th W=$38.30 Summary: Seems like every race is a Group One these days. Can anyone spot an import anywhere in this field? Anywhere? You almost wonder why they just don’t run this race over in England and save everyone the air fares. Incredibly hard to line up these fields with lots of 1st up imports, and as we found out last week the laws of probability state that invariably one of them will jump out of the ground 1st up – you just need to guess which one. No surprise that in a field of 1st up stayers there is close to no speed here at all. 9-TUSCAN FIRE looks the leader and hope they do go forward today on him cause think he will run a race at the odds on offer. Only really maybe 7-DECEMBER DRAW, 15-LET'S MAKE ADEAL as the others on speed and suspect they might ride the 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE more forward today from a good barrier. But close to no speed at all, which means there will be plenty running on late, but too late in this. The favourite 8-PUISSANCE DE LUNE obviously one to beat, has race fitness against most of these, and pretty much unlimited potential as to what he can or might do. This is much harder than last start though. Suspect he might settle a bit closer to the speed today from a good barrier which will be a plus in a slowly run race – but think he is slightly under the odds at the moment in the red, and would prefer around $2.20 to $2.50. But should win on form. Quite keen that the value runner here the 5-FORETELLER is going to run a race, really liked the strong finishing run 1st up and think he is very under rated. 1-MANIGHAR is the best of the rest, unlucky in this race last year, proven at this level and does seem to go extremely well fresh. Probably be having something each way on the 5-FORETELLER and playing with some value quinellas in a race that seems to have very few chances. One to risk: 6-SEA MOON 12th W=$4.00 Roughie: 9-TUSCAN FIRE The Key: Do you think an import might win? RESULTS: Spot on with the form analysis here. The value runner we gave a good push for, the 5-FORETELLER 1st W=$15.90 wins at nice odds - and basically you can tell from the form preview we really wanted to tip him on top, but totally wussed it and the favourite scared us off. Cover the $2300 trifecta easily in the suggested win and place bets with 13-MOUDRE 3rd W=$72.10 doing what he does so well - running on late. 6-SEA MOON basically falls flat on his face as they jump and has no chance after that. Actually quite liked the run of the outsider 9-TUSCAN FIRE who snuck up along the rails and is going to be hard to beat back to a handicap. Stable still seems to be downplaying the ability of the winner, really think he would be a great chance in the Caulfield Cup. |
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