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Sportsbet are paying to four places in the Golden Rose. |
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| FLEMINGTON: MAKYBE DIVA STAKES - 13th Sept 2014 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Most of the mid week rain seems to have missed Flemington and it is fine weather and a firm track heading into the weekend. Rail goes back to the TRUE position, last meeting here the rail was out 10M and the racing pattern did favour those running on late out wide, but there should be plenty of fresh ground here to give every horse it’s chance. Maybe just watch the inside horses down the straight which may be the better going. Sensationally sunny weather and a really good program. Not actually sure it is a great program to have a bet, there does appear to be a lot of short priced favourites and you would think most of them are going to go close to winning. There are an awful lot of spring stars on the way up that are going to poke their heads up today and will be quality racing to watch at least. RESULTS: Really good days racing, track is a firm GOOD(3) and the racing does tend to favour those running on late, especially in the straight races. First and second home in all of the straight races came from outside barriers and there was a distinct fast lane out past the middle of the track. BEST BET : Race 5: 1-COMMANDING JEWEL $10 WIN 1st W=$2.60 = $26 Super classy filly who is heading towards major spring targets and was unlucky 1st up against most of these when took a little while to get into clear running and loomed into the race like the winner before just missing. Improvement to come from that run, drawn to sit out in space on the speed here and won this race when 2nd up last year. Had close to a full year off before last run but seems to have come back in good form and likely to go on to meet some of her early potential. Has been well backed and is going to start on the shorter side, but really should win at around $2.70 RESULTS: Does get trapped wide and exposed early, but thought this was a really strong win even though she was fading on the line and still plenty of improvement to come this spring. BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 7-SIGNOFF $5 EW 3rd W=$4.80, P=$2.00 = $10 Lightly raced stayer trying to get up to the next level this spring, but his wins earlier in the year were super impressive. Needs to win some early races here to get into some better races so suspect he is going to be fairly forward. 1st up at Caulfield he never looked happy inside runners and then didn’t get clear room to the line and was unextended. Out to 1700M, sitting in room and racing on speed in a race with no much pace, and where a lot of his opposition are backmarkers he should put himself into the race at the right time. Expect a lot of improvement from last start and back each way at around $4.40 RESULTS: Works to the line OK, but is well beaten. Still plenty of improvement to come this spring though. BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 13-OUR HAND OF FAITH $3 EW X QUINELLA 13-OUR HAND OF FAITH#3,5,16,17,18 x $5 = 100% X, 1st 18-LATE CHARGE W=$4.70 Pretty consistent type who is rarely out of the finish. Flemington 1400M is so often about barriers and sitting on speed and this one looks the ideal candidate. Drawn barrier (3) here and should settle just on speed in a race with lots of drop back 1st up horses and unlikely to be much pressure up front. 2nd up and up 200M, but good record at the 1400M and wasn’t far off them 1st up at all when didn’t get the clearest run into the race. Back each way at around $6.50, and anchor in some quinellas with a few value runners like the (16), quinella should pay OK in an even betting race. RESULTS: Gets a perfect on pace sit but never looks likely in the straight. BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 10-NORDIC EMPIRE $2.50 EW X QUINELLA: Race 6: 2,8,9,10,11 boxed x $5 = 50% 2nd 9-LOOKS LIKE THE CAT W=$9.60 Extremely tough race with big field of lightly raced 3YOs down the straight, so think worth looking at something at odds. This one is racing extremely well, like the way he pounced on the lead in the straight at Caulfield only to be run down by one who is likely to be way above average. Looks really well placed here, drawn a middle barrier, can sit on speed and make sure he gets a clear run into the race at the right time, is in form and has race fitness over many of these. Barely set a foot wrong in career to date, coming off a great run in a Group 3 into a Group 2, and we get $21 about him. We will take some of that please. In an even race let’s also take a boxed quinella, with the other selections the (9) and (2) and throw in the other rough chances the 8-CONROW who has run some good races at the top level, and the 11-STRINGRAY who hasn’t had clear runs last start starts. RESULTS: Horses from outside barrier dominate this race and ours never look likely. QUINELLA: Race 2: 5-MARKSMANSHIP, 4-JACQUINOT BAY x $2 X, 2nd 4-JACQUINOT BAY W=$11.20 QUINELLA: Race 2: 5-MARKSMANSHIP, 10-PRIZUM x $2 X, 3rd 10-PRIZUM W=$21.00 This one looks the one to beat here, up and coming stayer who impressed over winter and then solid run last start at Caulfield off a freshen up when shot to the lead in the straight, but got run down. Most of these are struggling for form and he is on the way up, should sit on speed here and make his own luck. Current odds are around $3.30, but think he will get well backed, so maybe let’s try and find some more value in the quinella. Pretty much anything can run a place in a field where most of the rest of struggling for form, but suspect the (4) will improve with the 2 runs in and can also sit on speed in a race with not much pressure, and the (10) put in 2 really good runs here already this preparation, does prefer some give in the ground, but form was pretty good before last start at MV. Try and get some more value where in the quinellas. RESULTS: Bit annoying, the favourite flops badly and is one of the first beaten, but our value place getters fill out the placings. LAY OF THE DAY : Race 2: 8-LORD DURANTE at around $5.50 5th W=$10.40 We are picking on this poor guy a bit as made him Lay of the Day last time he ran as well, and he nearly got up and won. He likes dry tracks, and rolling on the speed and he won’t get that much pressure up front, but even after he fought on well last start still think the 2000M just finds him out and in a field with a lot of stayers just think something will run over him going to the line. Happy to take him on again here even in a field with very little form. RESULTS: Obviously we weren't the only ones who weren't keen on this one's chances, drifts markedly and is well beaten. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. FIRST FOUR: Race 7: 6,9 / 6,8,9 / 1,6,8,9 /1,2,5,6,8,9 x $5 = 20.83% 1st 9-DISSIDENT W=$2.70 / X / 3rd 6-PUISSANCE DE LUNE W=$6.10 / 4th 8-SPILLWAY W=$10.30 There is a jackpot and a guaranteed First Four Pool of $500,000 on the main race, so let’s have a shot of that with our paltry $5. Suspect our selections 9-DISSIDENT, 6-PUISSANCE DE LUNE , 8-SPILLWAY will fight the race out, all we need then is for value runner 1-GREEN MOON to lob in the finish somewhere and it is amazing how quickly these dividends blow out if something at odds stumbles into 4th. Lots of fun to be had for a $5 outlay regardless. RESULTS: Very cleverly we managed to take a First Four, identify three of the four horses in the finish - and not collect! SPENT: $50 RETURN: $36 NET: $-14 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 3-AFLEET ESPRIT, 6-TRAVESTON GIRL, 1-SABATINI Race 2: 5-MARKSMANSHIP, 4-JACQUINOT BAY, 10-PRIZUM Race 3: 7-SIGNOFF, 5-THE UNITED STATES, 12-LONGERON Race 4: 2-CHIVALRY, 9-FAST CASH, 10-RAPOSO Race 5: 1-COMMANDING JEWEL, 10-LORNA MAY, 7-GIG Race 6: 10-NORDIC EMPIRE, 9-LOOKS LIKE THE CAT, 2-BRAZEN BEAU Race 7: 9-DISSIDENT, 6-PUISSANCE DE LUNE , 8-SPILLWAY Race 8: 3-FLAMBERGE, 8-AKAVOROUN, 10-BRITISH GENERAL Race 9: 13-OUR HAND OF FAITH, 17-BY THE GRACE, 5-SCAPOLO |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-AFLEET ESPRIT 1st W=$9.70 6-TRAVESTON GIRL 1-SABATINI 3rd W=$5.80 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-MARKSMANSHIP 4-JACQUINOT BAY 2nd W=$11.20 10-PRIZUM 3rd W=$21.00 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-SIGNOFF 3rd W=$4.80 5-THE UNITED STATES SCR 12-LONGERON |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-CHIVALRY 2nd W=$2.50 9-FAST CASH 10-RAPOSO |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-COMMANDING JEWEL 1st W=$2.60 *** Best Bet Of The Day *** 10-LORNA MAY 7-GIG |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 10-NORDIC EMPIRE 9-LOOKS LIKE THE CAT 2nd W=$9.60 2-BRAZEN BEAU |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 9-DISSIDENT 1st W=$2.70 6-PUISSANCE DE LUNE 3rd W=$6.10 8-SPILLWAY |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-FLAMBERGE 8-AKAVOROUN 10-BRITISH GENERAL |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 13-OUR HAND OF FAITH 17-BY THE GRACE 5-SCAPOLO |
| RACE 7: MAYKBE DIVA STAKES 1600M GROUP 1 WFA |
| Tips: 9-DISSIDENT 1st W=$2.70 6-PUISSANCE DE LUNE 3rd W=$6.10 8-SPILLWAY |
| Others: 1 Pace: SLOW Leaders : 7-MESSENE Handy : 1-GREEN MOON, 6-PUISSANCE DE LUNE , 9-DISSIDENT Back : 2-FAWKNER, 3-BOBAN, 4-SUPER COOL, 5-SERTORIUS, 8-SPILLWAY , 10-LATE CHARGE, 11-DON DOREMO (NZ) Chances: 6-PUISSANCE DE LUNE (IRE) is going to be one you are not quite sure about all spring and as a horse represents your nagging self doubt. Will he get back to the heady days of super media spruik? How well is he going really? Well documented that he was the shortest priced Melbourne Cup favourite in years early last spring – and didn’t even make it to the race, which was really rude of him. Sheesh. But despite not living up to the over the top expectations, his form last spring wasn’t that bad when you look back at it. Was a beaten short priced favourite in this race last year 2nd up coming off a devastating 1st up Lawrence Stakes win. You get the feeling they have been nursing him back after long injury lay off, but he did look well and was well supported 1st up when the run was just OK, and actually thought the run in the Memsie was a really good sign he is heading in the right direction. Think there are a few things to like about him today, he has 2 x 1400M runs and race fitness over many of these, the dry track here is probably against, but he can also sit handy here in a race with not much speed. Just get the feeling he might be ready to do something today and rates as a strong chance. Go well. 3rd W=$6.10 8-SPILLWAY (GB) is an international horse having his 2nd Australian preparation and often they tend to improve very rapidly having had the chance to settle in and get used to the local lingo. Probably should have won 1st up, just took a while to get into clear running and really only just missed the bob on the line. Flemington 1600M and bigger track is going to suit, Oliver stays on board and Hayes and Co stable is firing on all cylinders at the moment. Will drop back and might not be enough pace on here, but think he is on the up and is going to go very close to winning this. Worth noting he is going to start longer odds than the (6) who he beat home comfortably last start and does look like value in this race. Strong chance. 4th W=$10.30 9-DISSIDENT was super impressive with his 1st up Memsie win, especially because we tipped him on top, which makes it even more impressive. He stalked the speed there and the race did favour on pacers, but really liked the way he sat off the speed and put the race beyond doubt very quickly in the straight – that is the sign of a class horse. 2nd up and out to the 1600M and the dry track suits. Suspect he may be more of a Caulfield horse (not quite sure why, just a feeling). He has beaten most of these and dominated against them last start, meets them at the same weight conditions, only 2 weeks later, obviously the one to beat and he could be on a rapid upward spiral and think his odds are pretty good considering all that. Go well 1st W=$2.70 Place: 1-GREEN MOON (IRE) is the 2012 Melbourne Cup winner who hasn’t won a race in 9 starts since. He does normally take a few runs to run into form, but it is always a bit of guess work with the Williams Stable as to how forward their runners are. Generally it is all about the Melbourne Cup fascination / addiction, so if they are in the field, they can take is slow, if they need to qualify then they need to be out and going early spring. Has finished 4th / 5th/ 4th last 3 1st up runs so he generally is not too far away and firm track and Flemington is definitely this thing – 3 time winner at Flem. There isn’t much speed here and he can actually sit handy in this which is a big plus. Watch his 1st up run in the Autumn over 1800M, he loomed up like the winner but just faded the last 50M. He does normally need a run, and is being set for later spring targets, but firm track, Flem and on pace are all very big ticks here so think he might put in a bit of a run fresh. Rough chance. 2-FAWKNER is last years’ Caulfield Cup winner, but before that he was the pin up boy for Flemington 1400M to 1800M dry track wins. Has won 5 times at Flem, and won 4 times this distance and only been unplaced once in 7 starts over 1600M. Just had the one warm up run over the Autumn, which was the exact same preparation he had last spring. Nominated for the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate this year and really just a matter of how forward he is fresh, so watch the market for a guide. WFA, dropping back, 1st up in a race with not much speed might just be an issue and he is a horse that normally needs the speed on in his races to run on. Won’t be far away, but just tending towards place today. 2nd W=$10.20 3-BOBAN is a Sydney super star who was all the rage in Melbourne last spring with some awesome winning performances. Hasn’t quite got back to those heights in his Sydney Autumn campaign, and worth noting he has now been beaten favourite in 3 of his last 7 starts. Made good ground 1st up on unsuitable wet track in Sydney and bought down to Melbourne early to avoid the lovely Sydney rain event. Run at Caulfield was just fair, didn’t really like him that day as a drop back horse in a race with not much speed on around Caulfield. Flemington, dry track and 1600M is definitely more his go. Interesting to see if he is well backed again as he is starting to get a bit costly for punters. Question mark here is going to be the lack of speed again and he does always drop well back in his races and just wonder if he might be running on too late again. This is much more suitable, and sure he will run an improved race, just preferring place again till he really hits his form once more. Place. Sacking: 4-SUPER COOL looked like being the next big thing after his 3YO Autumn season, but just didn’t come up in the Melbourne spring last year and may have actually lost his cool, and his super abilities. Which kinda sucks when your name is Super Cool. Didn’t really come up last spring, had a full year off and started 50-1 1st up which would suggest not many people were expecting much of him. Fitter for the one run in and might improve, but you would want to wait till he struck some form again before giving him any more thought. No 5-SERTORIUS is a tough as anything handicap stayer who can mix it in the lower level WFA races if required. Actually ran a really good race in the Bobbie Lewis down the straight on this day last year, and hit form pretty quickly last spring. Over the Autumn he contested all of the top notch Group races and was consistently thereabouts, but regularly filling 4th and 5th. You would suggest on that, that the top level WFA races are just beyond him, but he can be competitive against a field like this. 1st up run in Memsie this time in wasn’t bad, he made good ground and the bigger track and extra distance today will suit. Guess the difference this spring is that he is set for the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate, and has enough wins on the board to get into the fields, so doesn’t need to be going early in the spring. Passing over today but think he has come back well and won’t be far away. No 7-MESSENE is a very lightly raced Sydney 6YO with an impressive winning strike rate. Right in the finish 1st up and then never really showed anything 2nd up in the Memsie when was caught wide but really was a pretty disappointing run. 4 times winner over the 1600M and looks the likely leader here in a race with not much speed. Has mainly been a handicapper before so guess there must still be some question about how he measures up to this level. Fitter for the 2 runs in and should go better today, but even if he gets a soft lead can just see one of the classier horses finishing over the top of him. Happy to risk today and want to see him again before getting on. No 10-LATE CHARGE is a horse we had a lot of time for as a 3YO, but he was super frustrating and kept getting back and running on too late. Has a super finishing burst when right. Was a bit surprising to see him jump and sit on the speed in 1st up Caulfield win over 1200M, he is normally a drop back miler. 2nd up, up from 1200M to 1600M into a WFA field is hardly ideal, nor planned and seems to be Plan B if he can’t get into the field in Race 9 where he is an emergency. Happy to back him in that race – not in this one where he is outclassed. 11-DON DOREMO (NZ) is a lightly raced 4YO aiming to jump from a Cranbourne Benchmark 64 race into a Group 1 WFA race. Hasn’t done much wrong in short career to date, but going to start long odds here and prefer in something easier. No. Summary: Really don’t think there are many winning chances here at all for a Group 1 race. Flemington WFA races normally they can run on OK, but just watch the earlier races and see how well the on pacers are sticking on, on a dry track. There isn’t much speed here at all, the 7-MESSENE leading with the 6-PUISSANCE DE LUNE , 9-DISSIDENT sitting off him and unless the back markers are featuring think it may be tough for those who drop well back here to win this race. Initially we were actually going to go 6-PUISSANCE DE LUNE on top here, just thought with the 2 runs in, sitting on speed and kicking away he might be ready to win. But watching the Memsie again can’t see how you can go past 9-DISSIDENT, he will sit right on the speed again, the speed will be similar and you just have to love the way he put the race beyond doubt so quickly at Caulfield. Only question will be if he is more of a Caulfield horse, or gets run down over the 1600M, but really, for a dominant WFA winner last start with plenty of untapped potential think the $3.50 or so on offer is pretty good odds. 8-SPILLWAY the only other danger who might run on strongly and go on with it, and if you are playing First Fours here 1-GREEN MOON is definitely the one to inflate your dividend. Pretty confident one of the 3 selections will win and maybe back one and put savers on the other two. One to risk: 7-MESSENE 9th W=$11.60 Roughie: 1-GREEN MOON The Key: Slowly run WFA race. RESULTS: You can really bet confidently in this early WFA races, winning horses so often just keep on winning against largely the same field. Huge win from 9-DISSIDENT who was left exposed to be run down for the entire length of the straight, but managed to hold on - just, with 2-FAWKNER only just missing. 3-BOBAN starts well backed again and was pretty disappointing when had every chance to run into the race. 6-PUISSANCE DE LUNE going along well, just may need a wet track to win again. |
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