|FLEMINGTON: MAKYBE DIVA STAKES - 16th Sept 2017|
|Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: RAIN + WIND - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
The track is currently a GOOD(3), but there is rain forecast for most of Friday and showers again on Saturday so we suspect this track may move towards the SOFT(5) or SOFT(6) range. And then there is the wind, Saturday is forecast to be windy as well. We just wish our leaders would stop and consider the effects of climate change on punters trying to do the form. The rail goes back to TRUE, but we could get a rainy, windy day and a wet track, which might see them coming off the rails and it might be important to get cover in the run and favour those running on late. Down the straight middle and wider may be the place to be as well. Of course we wonít know till the races start, so just be ready to adjust your form based on any racing pattern.
The feature race sees many still warming up for the spring campaigns with plenty of improvement to come and really on form it is hard to see the favourite 1-HARTNELL getting beaten. He won easily 1st up and just seems to have 4,5,6 to 10 L on most of these. There isnít much speed here either, so he should be able to sit on speed and kick clear here. The value runner here may be the NZ stayer 8-JON SNOW on the way up, his 1st up run was excellent when he showed surprising speed to go forward and thought he stuck on well and will have a lot of improvement to come. The tough consistent 3-LE ROMAIN is the other main place chance and should be improved with the two runs in and chased hard last start. The other runner at odds for multis is the 5-GALIO CHOP who might have a preference for wet tracks and won very easily over in Adelaide last start. Not really into backing short priced favourites, so betting strategy is a confident place bet on one of those above, or a multi anchoring runners and getting a high percentage.
For the rest of the card we have a pretty strong program, with lots of very good horses in winning form and some pretty strong fields. Again, quite surprised at the lack of betting depth though, with clear cut favourites in most races, and so far this spring the money has been spot on, even in big fields. Can see plenty of runners at massive odds though and suggest this might be a day for wide trifectas with the favoured runners to win and suspect there will be some big place dividends in lopsided betting markets. Despite a slow start to the spring we are doubling up on the Betting Portfolio as there seems to be plenty to bet on.
BEST BET: Race 5: 11-BOOKER $15 WIN
Really strong edition of the Danehill Stakes and we get the likes of 2-JUKEBOX and 6-CATCHY going head to head here. We want to be on the one at the bottom of the weights though. Yet to miss a place in 3 career starts, has won down the straight before which her main rivals have not and was really good first up when hit the lead and fought it out right to the finish against another very smart one. Should be able to get cover on the inside here, though the best going may be out wider and in a race with not a huge amount of speed should burst through and hit the lead at the right time. Keen to back straight out at around $5.50
BEST WIN: Race 8: 6-HANS HOLBEIN $5 WIN
BEST WIN: Race 8: 11-SUPER HAZE $3 WIN
RUNNING DOUBLE: Races 8:9: 6,11 / 3,9,10,17,20 x $10 = 50%
Going to do something a bit different here. The staying race is wide open with plenty of chances, but the two who stand out are the 6-HANS HOLBEIN who is fitter for the 2 runs in at MV, and has been OK, but looks like a horse that will be better suited out to Flemington, big track and 2500M. The 11-SUPER HAZE is a tough, fit, stayer, who was good last start when had to loop around them on a front runners track. Plenty of value where at $7.50 and $15 and in two wide open races to end the day the Running Double should pay really well, especially if we can get one of the long shot emergencies in Race 9 into the field.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 15-VIOLATE $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 4,10,12,14,15 x $5 = 50%
Could this be the day that our dear friend finally wins another race? Super consistent type who is probably a bit under rated, but is very once paced in his finishes and just seems to find one better most starts. Excellent 1st up run when came from last on the home turn to run 4th. 2nd up and up to 1400M, but gets a big weight drop and like that he is drawn out, on a track that may soften up and favour runners on, and if the wind is a factor, it will take the edge off the finishing bursts and he will grind home pretty well. Think he is worth an each way bet at around $21 and take a box quinella with the other decent roughie in this race the 10-DODGING BULLETS who will get a good on pace sit here in a race with not much speed.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 9-SO SI BON $10 EW
This guy is absolutely flying this time in, but seriously needs to win another race. His finishing burst last two starts have been sensational, and you would think going out to the 1200M here would suit. Gets a weight pull on the (4) from last start, and drawn out may be a plus and he can finish on out wide over the top of these. Slight concern is the lack of genuine speed in this race, but that affects all of the main chances. Probably more forward than these on race fitness with the two runs in too, and nearly all of this field is 1st up. Confident each way bet at around $6.50.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 5-JENNIFER LYNN $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 5-JENNIFER LYNN#1,3,7,11,12 x $5 = 100%
Really smart mare who hasnít won for a while, and hasnít had any luck for a lot longer. Held up for ages 1st up at Caulfield when had plenty to give and had quite a few similar unlucky runs last preparation as well. Excellent 1400M stats and has the class to be in the finish here. Slight concern is the inside barrier as she does drop back in the run and might need luck again, but she is really, long over due for a change of luck. Back each way at around $13 and plenty of value in the quinella here so anchor her with the main dangers the 11-SWAMPLAND, 1-I AM A STAR, 3-OREGONíS DAY, and some roughies like 7-SWORD OF LIGHT and 12-SMART AS YOU THINK.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 12-MISS VIXEN $2.50 EW
Just a little dabble in the first race where something on the improve will probably plonk into the finish somewhere against the more proven types and this one was really good at Sandown last start when ridden cold at the back of the field and weaving through to finish strongly. Ridden cold here again, if the wind and rain is a factor may work again and should be finishing strongly again at around $23.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 17-FIRENZE (emerg) $3.50 EW
We like the emergencies in the last race, but just need to hope they get into the field. Very wide open final event and think you will want to look for something at value. This one is a stayer 2nd up, but 1st up made excellent ground late, and has solid wet track form. Drawn out, so can get cover and run on down the middle of the track late if that is the racing pattern and looks a nice, long odds hope in the last at around $26 Ė if he gets into the field.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 8: 13-CROCODILE ROCK at around $4.60
We are 3 from 4 this spring in the Lay of the Day, which is not pretty, but we shall foolishly plug on. This one is currently favourite in a tough, even staying field and is coming through much weaker races than his main opposition. Has been beaten 3 of out 5 previous starts as a short priced favourite $1.70, $2.90, $2.90 and just looks poor value against a field with lots of fit, in form and wining stayers. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a house on The Block.
FIRST FOUR: Race 7: 1-HARTNELL / 8-JON SNOW / 3,5 / 2,3,5,6,7,9,10 x $2.50 = 20.83%
FIRST FOUR: Race 7: 1-HARTNELL / 3,5 / 8-JON SNOW / 2,3,5,6,7,9,10 x $2.50 = 20.83%
It is surprising how well the trifectas and first fours pay in these feature races even if the favourite gets up. Behind the favourite it is wide market for the place, but we think up and coming NZ stayer 8-JON SNOW will continue to improve on a promising 1st up run, should lob on speed in a slowly run race and stick on well. So anchor the favourite to win, the value place getter for 2nd, the other main place chances for third, 3-LE ROMAIN, 5-GAILO CHOP, and wide for 4th, and rotate the placings in a second bet. Just hope for something silly to lob into fourth to blow the dividend out.
Race 1: 5-ROOMOOZ, 12-MISS VIXEN, 1-JORDA
Race 2: 1-ROYAL SYMPHONY, 4-MURAAHIB, 3-HUALALAI
Race 3: 15-VIOLATE, 4-CHOCOLATE HOLIC, 10-DODGING BULLETS
Race 4: 9-SO SI BON, 4-VOODOO LAD, 3-REDKIRK WARRIOR
Race 5: 11-BOOKER, 6-CATCHY, 3-AZAZEL
Race 6: 5-JENNIFER LYNN, 11-SWAMPLAND, 1-I AM A STAR
Race 7: 1-HARTNELL, 8-JON SNOW, 3-LE ROMAIN
Race 8: 6-HANS HOLBEIN, 11-SUPER HAZE, 1-ALMANDIN
Race 9: 17-FIRENZE (emerg), 20-RIYDAH (emerg), 9-NOZOMI, 3-AMELIEíS STAR, 10-COOL CHAP