|FLEMINGTON: MAKYBE DIVA STAKES - 14th September 2019|
|Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: TRUE|
| Betting Portfolio ($100): |
Fine and sunny heading into the weekend and we are looking at a pretty good day of racing. The track will be a genuine GOOD and the rail goes back to the TRUE position for the first time in a while, so we should get even racing. Down the straight they will probably still come down the middle of the track, but often the winners are those sneaking up on the inside closer to the rail. Think barriers are going to be important today with a few fields on the larger side.
The feature Makybe Diva Stakes is a really interesting and competitive race, and even though realistically there are probably only a few winning chances, there should be plenty of value in the exotics in a race where just about anything could run a place. The trick is really going to be mapping where all the runners sit in the run, and what the speed is going to be, and itís a bit tricky to line up. The usual leaders are the 9-YUCATAN and the 2-GAILO CHOP, but both of them are first up from a spell heading into long spring campaigns so not sure they will want to go that keen early or how forward they will be. Behind them the 13-MYSTIC JOURNEY will get a pretty good sit, with her main dangers the 4-SCALES OF JUSTICE and the 1-HARTNELL in close pursuit, in a race where there doesnít look to be much pressure up front.
Really think those who have fought out the finishes of the WFA races so far this spring will fight out the finish again, but we are actually going to flip the result this time and put the old timer 1-HARTNELL on top. He should be fitter for the two runs in and probably takes a bit longer to find his peak as he gets older. In the Lawrence Stakes he was finishing on well late in limited room, and in the Memsie he got held up badly for runs early in the straight and was beaten just over a length in both those runs with some excuses. Key today is the barrier, being drawn out and donít think he has appreciated being drawn in last two starts. Even though the (13) beat him here in the All Star Mile in the Autumn, he did have to carry 5kgs more that day and only has to carry 2.5 kgs more here under WFA conditions. Looks a value each way bet at around $14 and think he has a few things set up for him today. The main danger is the magnificent 13-MYSTIC JOURNEY who just keeps going on her winning way and she should get a perfect sit on a slow tempo here, she is pretty good, she probably still does have to prove she is extraordinary (which she may well be), and just think the odds are still reflecting more what she might be, rather than what she has done. Canít knock her though, just she isnít unbeatable Ė yet. The 4-SCALES OF JUSTICE is in flying form and really had the race pan out perfectly for him last start at Caulfield and could easily go on with it. Hard to see any outside of these three winning, watch the market on the 9-YUCATAN who would be up to WFA based on that freak Herbert Power win. The best roughies are the 10-NIGHTíS WATCH, who was impossibly held up for runs last start, just would need the speed on here and for them to be running on well, and the 15-QAFILA who looks to be one on the improve and might get into the finish at this level.
This is actually a pretty difficult betting program, there are quite a few chances in some of these races and some big fields to work through. But we also think there are some great each way bets at double figure odds so we are going to double up the weekly Betting Portfolio coming off a few good weeks on the punt and have a crack at them.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 7-VEGAS KNIGHT $7 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 7-VEGAS KNIGHT, 13-MISSILE MANTRA, 12-LA TENE boxed x $6 = 200%
This one was super unlucky last start when he jumped awkwardly, ended up at the back of the field and flew home late out wide to just miss in a bunched finish. Normally races on speed and smashed them the start before winning a maiden. Drawn inside today so can go forward and take a perfect sit on just an even tempo. Thought the run last start was excellent and not sure there is that much depth in this field so a bit surprised by the $20 on offer here today. Have a decent bet each way as looks great value, and box up a quinella with the classy 13-MISSILE MANTRA who also finished on well late last start after struggling to get clear and the consistent on pacer the 12-LA TENE.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 8-SEBRAKATE $10 EW
QUINELLA: Race 5: 8-SEBRAKATE, 5-DALASAN x $3 = 500%
Well documented how unlucky this one was last start at Caulfield, held up for runs most of the straight, and ran on well when clear and probably should have won. In form, fitter for the 2 runs in and has the big plus of being proven down the straight. Looks a clear leader too, really just a matter of going inside or outside from the wide barrier as would be better with a rail to guide. There is a good chance he will be able to lead clearly and pinch this, so back each way at around $8 and save on a quinella with the short priced favourite the 5-DALASAN who was impressive winning in open company last start but did have the weight advantage.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 1-HARTNELL $7.50 EW
Ever reliable old timer who really should be ready to peak today and might be able to turn the tables on the 13-MYSTIC JOURNEY and 4-SCALES OF JUSTICE who have beaten him home last two starts this spring. He has ended up inside horses on the rails both runs this time in and has found trouble, think he will appreciate being drawn out here today. Always seems to be in the finish in these sorts of races. Looks well over the odds to us at around $13 here and at the very least he is a great anchor for your place multi. Should be hard to beat.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 7-SULLY $5 EW
Not overly keen to bet in the last in a field with no speed and a lot of stayers just doing warm up laps. This one does look well placed here, appreciate he is over due for a win (it has been two years exactly), but was really good 1st up running on well late in restricted room. The step up in distance will suit, and assuming they are going to ride him to the lead here so listen out for tactics changes. There is no pressure up front in this race, so if he leads he will be hard to beat. Might just need one more run, but something each way at around $8.
QUINELLA: Race 1: 7-KING OF LEOGRANCE, 6-HARRISON x $5 = 500%
Letís try and kick off the day with a straight forward quinella. The 7-KING OF LEOGRANCE looks to be building to a win, fitter for the two runs in and suited today out to further distance and on a bigger track. The 6-HARRISON was good first up off a year break and normally goes forward so is the likely leader here. Expect the stable mates to fight out the finish, which normally means the one at longer odds wins.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 11-BELLARIA $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 2,7,9,10,11 boxed x $10 = 100%
Pretty even mares feature race and there are a few here who can sit on speed. We were very keen on the 3-MUSIC BAY, which has been scratched as we are writing this so have had to do a hasty last minute rewrite of the bets. The value runner here is the 11-BELLARIA who is capable on her day, is fitter for the 2 runs in and was really good carrying weight last start at MV when was finishing on well on the rails and ran into a dead end right on the post. She is the rank outsider of the field at $61, but definitely put her in your exotics, though they might have to push forward here from an outside barrier. That sets up for a value quinella, so box up the proven class on pacer 2-SPANISH WHISPER, the 7-MY PENDANT who will be giving them a start today from a wide barrier, the 9-FIDELIA who was flying home late last start and the 10-AMBERDI who is fit, in form, on speed and was excellent in Adelaide last start. Looking at a good collect if this roughie can get into the finish.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 16-RICH ITCH $3 EW
Pretty even sprint field, and realistically this one is rising significantly in class, but he is showing a bit of talent. Run to watch is the straight track run here back in May, was held up at the back of the field behind a wall of horses for about 200M trying to get through, and when finally clear absolutely flew to the line and should have won Ė at 100-1 ! He has been going pretty well since then in the country and was beaten by a city class promising performer last start at Sale. This is harder, and he will drop out and flew home late but he does look to have ability so worth a little dabble at around $25.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 11-TENLEY at around $5.50
Not that many horses under $5 to play with today, so risking a value winner here. Showed a lot of promise early on in her career, but didnít measure up to the feature races and a bit hard to know exactly how well she is going. Didnít do much 1st up behind a smart one. Drawn out and dropping well back around the Flem 1400M with not much pressure up front and just doesnít look like the race will be run to suit. Risking.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough to pay for Taylor Swiftís appearance fee.
FIRST FOUR: Race 7: 1,13 / 1,13 / 4, 10,15 / 2,3,4,9,10,15 x $5 = 16.66%
Good chance of a value exotic in the feature race where really just about anything could run a place. Letís single out 1-HARTNELL and 13-MYSTIC JOURNEY to fight out the finish, and one of 4-SCALES OF JUSTICE, 10-NIGHTíS WATCH or the value runner the 15-QAFILA to fill the placings and hope we can plonk something at odds for fourth which will blow the dividend out.
Race 1: 7-KING OF LEOGRANCE, 6-HARRISON, 9-EXEMPLAR
Race 2: 2-ABSOLUTE FLIRT, 6-ST EDWARDíS CROWN, 13-EVENING SLIPPERS
Race 3: 7-VEGAS KNIGHT, 13-MISSILE MANTRA, 12-LA TENE
Race 4: 10-ROX THE CASTLE, 14-TARWIN, 3-VASSILATOR
Race 5: 8-SEBRAKATE, 5-DALASAN, 11-EXPRESS PASS
Race 6: 9-FIDELIA, 10-AMBERDI, 11-BELLARIA
Race 7: 1-HARTNELL, 13-MYSTIC JOURNEY, 4-SCALES OF JUSTICE
Race 8: 14-USAIN BOWLER, 16-RICH ITCH, 3-TSHAHITSI
Race 9: 7-SULLY, 6-CAPTAIN COOK, 15-ROYAL ACE