Perfect sunny weather all week in Melbourne, and its sunshine, a good track, rail TRUE and all around good times come Saturday. Plenty of fresh ground, maybe just tend towards those on-speed on a firm track and down the straight maybe outside rail preferable with cover if any wind. Some big fields though and the straight races should split across both sides. We have an extremely topsy-turvy betting program with favourites at $2.20, $2.30, $2.10, $1.85, $1.90, $2.40 though the day broken up with two utterly impossible capacity field straight races. Suspect a lot of the favourites will win and does look like a favourites day, but some of the earlier ones are far too short and beatable and much prefer to back something each way. Will try and find value in the Suggested Bets accordingly.
Reminder that at the moment for Spring Campaign 2023 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 7: 2-ALLIGATOR BLOOD $7 WIN
Happy to have a straight out win bet today on this one at around $4, just seems this is preferred racing pattern, small field, 1600M, dry track and leading and controlling the speed and he is extremely difficult to get pass when he gets conditions to suits.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 8-CLIMBING STAR $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 3: 8-CLIMBING STAR#3,5,9 x $3 = 100%
This one looked one on the way up with an impressive campaign last spring and then either just didn’t come up in the Autumn when disappointing in three runs, or didn’t handle good tracks (which would be an issue today if so). Really liked the 1st up run when peeling off into the race nicely and just couldn’t chase down the winner, but think that means she is probably back to her best form this campaign. On-speed Flemington 1400M suits and she should lob and jump on-speed here and get every chance. Looks a good each way bet at around $12 and super value quinella here should the short-priced favourite not run up to expectations with roughie on-speed 9-PARTY PRINCESS, Flemington dry tracker 5-NICOLINI VITO and consistent 3-DEONATOR JACK. This is our main bet of the day.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 6-I AM UNSTOPPABLE $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 6-I AM UNSTOPPABLE#10-ARCHO NACHO, 3-KING’S GAMBIT x $2 = 100%
Eye catching run first-up when come from well back down the outside with some gusto in a quality race. Strong finisher suited down the straight and might be one that goes up a notch this spring. Back each way at around $6 and save on the quinella with the talented 10-ARCHO NACHO who had no luck in previous run here held up for runs (but has drawn barrier 1 again!) and the well backed Sydney visitor 3-KING’S GAMBIT.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 6-WROTE TO ARATAKI $4 EW
Up again the short priced boom WA mare 1-AMELIA’S JEWEL who is going to be very hard to beat, but always got to be wary of drop back horses drawn wide over the Flemington 1400M, especially if the track ends up a little on-speed. General rule in this race is to back the class on-pace mares and this one was good 1st up when dropped back in the field and worked home well. Normally races to the lead and has gone well this track and distance before, so check riding tactics but expect to see her leading today. Much prefer to back this one each way on-speed at around $10 and given every chance then get on a drop back even money favourite.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 11-DUBENENKO $2.50 EW
Talented Adelaide visitor who put in a massive run in the Blue Diamond when held up for runs and storming home late. Probably hasn’t quite lived up to expectations two runs back this time in and was beaten $1.80 fav last start, but given a freshen and a barrier trial and looks to be suited down the straight here. Just going off the potential of the Blue Diamond run, a repeat of that puts her right in the finish here and worth a little something each way at $50. Also see box quinella in the Turf Deli Wonder bet.
BEST ROUGH: Race 10: 11-SUIZURO $2 EW
Basically we don’t like this race at all, these 1700M early spring staying contests are impossible to line up with lots of stayers resuming. So hard to have a serious bet and worth just looking for some value, this one normally leads and doubt there will be much speed on in this. Even effort 1st up, but might do something jumping and leading today on a firm track up against a lot of drop back stayers with not much pressure up front. Rough at $20.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 10: 10-DEVOTED at around $2.70
Awful race to end the day and think if you are having a bet in this race you want to get some value and not back a short priced favourite in a big even field. Does have race fitness on his side and form against these, but did win with a handy 7-9kgs pull in the weights against those around him in the finish last start. Not sure that win was that convincing, goes out past 1600M for the first time against a lot who will be strong at the end of the race and not keen on chances.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
QUINELLA: Race 6: 3,11,12,16,17,19 x $5 = 33%
Massive field down the straight and almost certainly going to be a big quinella here, from memory the quinella in this race last year paid around $600 (which we may have got..). Possible that the outside rail is going to be fastest, so let’s box up our roughie 11-DUBENENKO at around $50 who is drawn in, with some of the stronger finishing horses drawn out, the 12-TIZ ENUF may run well with a clear lead and kick on the outside, the 16-SICILIAN and 19-FRAGILE LOVE should be finishing on hard, the 3-SKIRT THE LAW is the one to beat and super roughie 17-HELL QUEEN is drawn outside with good straight track form.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 1,2 / 1,2,6,11,14 / 4,5,8 / 3,4,11,12,14,16 x $20 = 11.11%
Quaddie will be very slim indeed if the favourites get up, but if we want a collect we have to find some at value to beat them. Just take the two main chances in the first leg, hope the shorties go down in the second and third legs and go as wide as you can in the last which is where the value winner will probably come from.
Feature Race Preview:
Small field for the feature Makybe Diva Stakes which means it is probably not a betting race. The speed here is the 2-ALLIGATOR BLOOD and think that is critical, his best runs are when allowed to dictate the speed on firm tracks and he hasn’t been able to do that this time in. The 7-PRINCESS GRACE to settle second and assume they will want to keep in touch on the 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE in what should be a very tactical race.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-MR BRIGHTSIDE just keeps winning, not by big margins, but just keeps winning so it can be easy to underestimate him. Jockey Williams has racked up a very impressive 11 wins from 21 starts on this one. Impressive 9/13 at the 1600M and beat his main rivals last start at Caulfield under the same conditions. Ride won the race last start, from outside barrier jockey went forward and once box seated on the speed was going to be extremely hard to beat. Seems to be a little more vulnerable at Flemington with only one win from six starts, but most of those were in top level features. Has only been beaten at the 1600M four times in his career – and all of those have been at Flemington, which is an extraordinary statistic. Likely to settle forward here in a tactical race and obviously the one to beat. We might see if that Flemington stat is an anomaly or a concern today.
2-ALLIGATOR BLOOD seems to have a distinct pattern, best form is on dry tracks, a few runs into the preparation and when he can lead and dictate the speed – and today he ticks all those boxes. Small field and being able to lead is a massive tick for this one, and 4/8 when 2nd up. Fought on well first up when right in the finish and just seems to get the perfect race shape today so think he is a genuine danger to the favourite.
3-SPANISH MISSION is a stayer coming off a year break and will need the run. Firm track suits but won’t be suited by the stop start tempo.
4-AEGON should be fitter for the two runs in and was an eye-catcher running on from last first-up at Caulfield before not doing much last start. Probably prefers a little give in the ground, and probably wants a genuine tempo but at least won’t have issues getting a clear run in the small field. Place chance.
5-FRANCESCO GUARDI is a stayer suited 2nd up and up in distance to Flemington. Does tend to drop well back in the run so not suited here with the smart class horses dictating the speed but should finish off the race OK. Place.
6-OSIPENKO is fitter for the two runs in and got too far back 1st up in Sydney when made great ground late. Hasn’t always had the best of luck in this career and form is probably better than it looks on paper. Even effort last start, and think he will be suited here in a small field and big track when he can actually get a clear crack at them. Hard to see him turning around the three here who beat him home last start, but suspect he will put in a race today and is probably the best rough chance in this outside the top three.
7-PRINCESS GRACE seems to be building towards a pretty impressive Spring, kicked clear on the rails (worse ground) when first-up in Sydney and took a pretty good one the whole length of the straight to run her down. Perfect on-speed run last start at Caulfield and she was just held up for a run for a little while and had to stick to the inside which wasn’t the best going when getting the split and chasing hard. Really hard to read where she is going to get to, but she could easily step up a notch and be really dominant this spring. Boxes on-speed and think you need to keep her safe today.
Summary:
Going to be a great tactical race so not really much of a betting race but keen to get on the 2-ALLIGATOR BLOOD today. Small field, leading, dry track is just his thing and he is incredibly hard to get past under those conditions. Was only beaten by a freak effort in this race last year from the sadly departed I’M THUNDERSTRUCK. The obvious danger is the 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE just that Flemington record might be an issue and have to be wary of the potential of the 7-PRINCESS GRACE. Best rough is the 6-OSIPENKO, but just happy to have an interest bet straight out here on the 2-ALLIGATOR BLOOD to win.
Race 1: 10-LITTLE MISS KUBI, 5-OUR LAST CASH, 3-WILLIAM THOMAS
Race 2: 2-INTERPRETATION, 10-UNITED NATIONS, 5-ALLAMBRA LAD
Race 3: 8-CLIMBING STAR, 9-PARTY PRINCESS, 5-NICOLINI VITO
Race 4: 6-I AM UNSTOPPABLE, 10-ARCHO NACHO, 3-KING’S GAMBIT
Race 5: 15-LEGACIES, 8-GRIFF, 16-NODACHI
Race 6: 11-DUBENENKO, 3-SKIRT THE LAW, 16-SICILIAN
Race 7: 2-ALLIGATOR BLOOD, 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE, 7-PRINCESS GRACE
Race 8: 6-WROTE TO ARATAKI, 2-SEE YOU IN HEAVEN, 1-AMELIA’S JEWEL
Race 9: 8-BENEDETTA, 4-IT’SOURTIME, 5-STAR PATROL
Race 10: 11-SUIZURO, 3-MAKRAM, 4-SIBAAQ
