Fine clear weather heading into the weekend with only the occasional shower and this track should come up a genuine GOOD and probably on the firmer side. Little wind around either so we should get pretty even racing maybe tending towards inside with the rail back to the TRUE. Hard to judge down the straight likely to be evenly spread with big fields, so never anything wrong with just boxing up the inside or outside barriers in case one side is strongly favoured.
This is usually a pretty good day for a punt with big fields and horses stepping up for spring, so surprising that we have so many short priced favourites, Race 7 4-REVELARE at $3.10, Race 9 3-LAZZURA at $2.45 and Race 10 4 GLOBE at $2.80 are all good winning chances, but look pretty poor value in fields with some depth, so prefer to back something at each-way odds. The two straight races earlier in the day are ridiculous tough and if you are keen to crack a massive trifecta this is your big chance. Stacks of value around in the selections so let’s see how we go. Doubling up to $100 with plenty of double figure each way chances to play with.
For Spring Campaign 2025 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 11-ROBRICK $5 EW, QUINELLA 1,10,11,12 boxed x $6 = 100%
Fairly open Flemington 1400M race and this one has always shown some ability, but often hasn’t had luck or been in the right race conditions. Worked to the line well 1st up at MV with a big weight, has won this track and distance and ran some great late finishing races down the straight here. Firm track suits, he is going to drop back from an inside barrier here and need some luck but should be coming home strong late. Each way at around $15 and box up a quinella with the super consistent and tough on-speed 1-RISE AT DAWN, the 12-WONDER BOY who has a stack of ability but doesn’t always get the best luck and the strong finishing 11-ATHANATOS who often runs second.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 7-MORMONA $7 EW
Seems to be racing extremely well and strong staying performance here two starts back to win over 2800M. Had a let-up and dropped back in distance at Caulfield and just seemed to take a little while to flatten out and go for home in the straight but was coming hard on the line. Back up in distance and back to Flemington are big pluses, dry track not so much, but just looks a solid staying Flemington type in a field with not much depth. Each way at around $7.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 6-ABOUNDING $7 EW, QUINELLA 3,5,6,13 boxed x $6 = 100%
Under-rated mare who has mixed it at the top level up North and interested to see what she can do in Melbourne over the spring. First-up run in the Cockram was excellent, was held up for clear running room and was coming hard on the line and probably goes close to winning if gets out earlier. Winner of this race invariably comes through the Cockram, and suspect she is going to like Flemington. Each way at around $10 and box a quinella with the hard to beat on-speed Sydney visitor the 3-LAZZURA, be very wary of the in-form on speed 13-BOSSY BENITA at odds and the 5-WROTE TO ARATAKI at odds on-speed with excellent Flemington form.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 10: 9-YOUNG WERTHER $7 EW
Not often we tip this one, but think he has found a very suitable race today. Best form is Flemington and dry tracks and first-up run was pretty good when dropped far too far back and worked to the line well with a big weight. Should be able to jump and settle handy today which will be a big plus in a field of a lot of early campaign drop back stayers and likely to be in the finish at around $13.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 2-DE BERGERAC $3 EW, QUINELLA Race 1: 2,6,7,9,10,19 boxed x $7.50 = 50%
The 2-DE BERGERAC is crazy odds for a horse with excellent Flemington straight track form, drawn wide and with an apprentice claim at $46. Was finishing hard last start at MV and better suited back to Flemington. Lets try and open up the day with a value quinella and whilst the favourite the 10-SHE’S AN ARTIST is going to be very hard to beat, can’t resist the great odds about so many capable horses. The 7- STOLI BOLLI was competitive in a Group 1 Coolmore here and looks ready to win drawn wide with two runs in, the 19-VERDOUX might get a soft run on-speed back on the inside if that is the better going, the 6-SALSA FELLOW is a strong finisher drawn wide and the 9-TRAPEZE WARRIOR might be back to his best form on-speed drawn wide. Box them up and hope for a value collect.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 4-PRESTIGE OLE $2 EW
Showed some ability first preparation and winner this track and distance back in March. Really hasn’t done much wrong in career to date and might be one to go on this spring. Well drawn and there probably isn’t that much between these so happy to have something each way at around $27.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 15-EETEEDEE $3 EW QUINELLA: Race 4: 2,4,5,8,12,15 boxed x $7.50 = 50%
One out of left field here at $51, but will go forward from an inside barrier and might get a good run on the speed. Absolutely horrid ride two starts back at Caulfield and jockey Lane on board a big plus today. Again box up a wide value quinella with the 2-MY GLADIOLA with a good turn-of-foot drawn wide, the strong finishing Sydney sider the 4-INKARUMA, the 5-STEEL TRAP who showed plenty of talent last campaign, the 12-SIGNATURE SCENT on-speed out wide if that is the better side and let’s make a special call out to the 8-PETITE ARTISTE who somehow goes around here at $151 despite being proven down the straight, despite finishing top 4 and being competitive at every start this time in and if she gets a cosy cover down the outside she has a good sprint and will be in the finish here at massive odds (hello same race multis to sixth).
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 1-VINROCK at around $3
Current favourite for this race off a great first preparation, but really the first-up run was pretty ordinary so you are betting on him returning to his best form here. Always lots of up and coming early 3YOs on the improve, and prefer to wait to see him return to form rather than take short odds. Risking.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a luxury ride home with no trains running.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE Race 5: 1-RISE AT DAWN
PLACE Race 6: 3-STEPARTY
PLACE Race 7: 7-MORMONA
PLACE Race 9: 13-BOSSY BENITA
Looking at around $400 for a $5 outlay
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 4,6,7,9,12 / 1,5 / 3,5,6,13 / 4,9,15,17,18 x $20 = 10%
Go wide in the first and last legs where there is a good chance of a value winner and quaddie still probably pays OK even if the favourite wins the feature race.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 8 MAKYBE DIVA STAKES 1600M GROUP 1
Small field of all the usual suspects for the feature Group 1 makes for a pretty quick write up and a great tactical race to watch. Pretty unclear who leads here, 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE is the only obvious on-speed horse, but doubt they will want to lead, well known that the 3-ANTINO likes to make strong and early moves so even if the pace is slow early on he will probably shoot off before the turn and put the speed into the race in the straight. Really good opportunity to go forward on the 2-TOM KITTEN here who looks the most likely to change their racing pattern.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-MR BRIGHTSIDE is as tough and consistent as they come and is aiming to win this race for the third year in a row. Astounding 6/8 wins second up. He is best sitting handy behind a leader that he can grind down and go past and unlikely to get a race run like that – but he will be sitting handy here and most of his main rivals will be behind him in a slowly, run tactical race. He probably wants a tough competitive slog, some of the others may be too brilliant for him in a slowly run race. Fought on well 1st up to run second and clearly beat the rest of the field behind a potential superstar. He probably doesn’t want a track that is getting really firm to show his best. Despite all that he is proven and pretty much infallible – he is simply just about always in the finish. Odds of $5 are pretty good considering his form and think he is the one who is best placed to upset the favourite. Strong chance.
2-TOM KITTEN has had a messy campaign, being SCR at the barrier in the Memsie so having to play catch-up runs now. Won the All-Star mile this track and distance back in March, with a strong finish. Tends to drop back but perfect chance to settle more handy here in a small field or even lead. Firm track suits. He is probably the best rough chance in this race, if he had a run in he would be a decent chance of an upset, but he is up against the best here and probably not at his peak for this race. Rough only.
3-ANTINO has a touch of brilliance on this day and has shown he can make a strong mid-race run and keep going – so don’t be surprised if they take off early here if there is no speed on here. Took off very early in the Memsie and stuck on OK, and out wide was far inferior ground that day. Well held in this race last year by the (1) on a heavy track off similar lead-in form. Interesting ride in a tactical race, but just can’t seem to catch which day he is going to ping and show his brilliance. Just wonder if he struggles to beat the top liners at WFA? Chance.
4-MARK TWAIN is a Melbourne Cup hopeful coming back from a long injury lay off and will only be doing warm-up laps here. Was supposed to run last week at MV and lost rider pre-race, so this isn’t the spring kick off they were planning. No.
5-VIA SISTINA is the current best horse in Australia and looks largely unbeatable at the moment. Looked to be working hard last start as they wound up for home, but class showed out and was stronger the closer they got to the line. Heavy track may not have suited here? Beaten and disappointing short-priced favourite in this race last year, but again that was on a heavy track and bounced back with Turnbull win the start after. She is probably more vulnerable early on in her preparations and would prefer a genuine speed, so be interesting to see how she handles a slowly run tactical race. Hard to beat and she is backable odds, but not unbeatable.
6-AELIANA is the new season 4YO mare who looks to have a stack of potential and chased the (5) hard last start and went with her to the line. Absolutely thrashed them in the ATC Derby and showed plenty of ability last spring. Suspect she also prefers a genuinely run tempo to use her strong finish. Be interesting to see if she goes up the next level here and goes on in the Spring – plenty of punters think she will. Strong chance.
Summary: Fascinating tactical race to watch, probably not a great betting race in a small field. Safest bet is probably for the 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE to be in the finish, as he just about always is, and he will be ahead of most of his main rivals here so from a punting point of view placing him on top. 5-VIA SISTINA is actually backable odds for those who like backing short priced favourites and can’t underestimate what the 6-AELIANA in a very boring set of selections. Suspect the 2-TOM KITTEN is the roughie who is going to run better than his odds suggest. Enjoy the race!
Race 1: 7- STOLI BOLLI, 2-DE BERGERAC, 19-VERDOUX
Race 2: 2-TYCOON STAR, 3-LEGACY BOUND, 4-SHINING SMILE
Race 3: 12-JUST KICK, 4-PRESTIGE OLE, 3-CROSSBOW
Race 4: 2-MY GLADIOLA, 4-INKARUMA, 15-EETEEDEE
Race 5: 11-ROBRICK, 1-RISE AT DAWN, 12-WONDER BOY
Race 6: 4-ARKANSAW KID, 3-STEPARTY, 10-MEDIA WORLD
Race 7: 7-MORMONA, 4-REVELARE, 6-JENNIVAMOOSE
Race 8: 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE, 5-VIA SISTINA, 6-AELIANA
Race 9: 6-ABOUNDING, 3-LAZZURA, 13-BOSSY BENITA
Race 10: 9-YOUNG WERTHER, 4-GLOBE, 15-CADMUS
