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MOONEE VALLEY : MANIKATO STAKES - 13th Sept 2008

Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: LOVELY - Rail: OUT 2M

Betting Portfolio ($100): Last two meetings the rail has been out 7M (even racing), and out 4M (dynamite leader’s track). There is a chance with the rail back to the 2M position today there is going to be a fast lane hard up against the rails on the fresh ground. This meeting last year the racing was fairly even, probably just tending towards on pacers. So watch the early races and see if they are making any ground from behind and adjust your betting plans accordingly. Always keen to avoid those with inside barriers over MV sprint trips if they are not go forward horses. Think there is a bit of value later in the day, so let’s double the normal bet and go for some value collects. RESULTS : Even racing, probably actually favoured those running on out wide. Those with cover who could swing wide on the turn won most races, though the pace was quite genuine in nearly every race. BEST BET : Race 3: 8-FLY HIGHER $20 WIN 1st W=$4.10 = $82 Fitter for the 2 runs in, form is better than most of his rivals her and nice run last start when went very wide and early on the home turn and was not beaten far. Just want to see her settle not too far back and should win coming around them. RESULTS : Solid pace on and she comes wide around them all and still wins. Strong win. Nice collect ! BEST BET : Race 6: 9-MALDIVIAN $20 WIN FLEXI QUAD : 9 / 4,8,13,15 / 2,5,9,11,16 / 3,4,5,7,10,15 x $30 = 25% RESULTS : - / 1st 4-TYPHOON ZED W=$7.50 / 2nd 2-DEVIL MOON W=$2.80, 3rd 16-BIRD OF FIRE W=$20.90 / 2nd 5-ZAVITE W=$24.20 Rather than take the short price about this one, let’s split the bet, put some on the win and the rest on a quaddie as think there is some value in the other races. Top liner who is fitter for the 2 runs in, which have both been excellent and made the superstar work for his money last start (actually think he might give WEEKEND HUSSLER a run for his money over more distance, but let’s wait and see – needs to win today first). Should lead and dictate this race and about to reach peak form. Anchor him in the quaddie, take the 4 main chances in the sprint, go wide in the 3rd leg where there will be a shortie and hope for a result, and the last race of the day so far this spring have been dead set awful so pile in as many as you can afford. RESULTS : 9-MALDIVIAN doesn't lead and gets caught out wide on a furious pace - stopped quickly in the straight. Has excuses, but slighty disappointing. Last leg of the quaddie continues to be a dog of a race, load them up ! BEST ROUGH : Race 8: 16-BIRD OF FIRE $5 EACH WAY 3rd W=$20.90, P=$4.70 = 5 x 4.70 = $23.50 First emergency, but will get a run with early scratching. Fitter for 2 runs in and not far off them in both. Drawn lovely barrier, can settle mid field or better, and placed 6 from 8 at MV. Probably not suited under this weight scale, but all the focus will be on the short priced favourite the (2) and think she is going to start nice odds and should be thereabouts. RESULTS : Runs pretty much exactly as predicted, goes forward, right in the finish all the way down the straight at nice odds QUINELLA : Race 7 : 4,8,15 x $5 = $15 1st 4-TYPHOON ZED W=$7.50 Box up the 3 main chances in the sprint, the up and comer leader and the two on pace proven sprinters who will get clear runs into the race. RESULTS : 4-TYPHOON ZED wins sitting off the pace, but no collect TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more. ALL UP PLACE BET x $5 PLACE R6 NO 13 PLACE R8 NO 16 16-BIRD OF FIRE 3rd W=$20.90, P=$4.70 PLACE R9 NO 7 Taking an all up place bet with some nice value runners in these 3 races. RESULTS : Not a bad idea, plenty of value place getters in these races, just not the ones we selected ! SPENT : $100 RETURN : $105.50 NET : $+5.50

The Tips: Race 1: 4-BENATAR, 10-LA GOULUE, 7-OFFER IT UP Race 2: 11-WOPPIT, 1-LUCKY SECRET, 12-KIONI Race 3: 8-FLY HIGHER, 2-DARPANA, 6-EXPEDITIONNAIRE Race 4: 14-ALLIED FORCE, 13-SAMADJI, 12-COGNAC BAY Race 5: 2-VIENNESE, 10-ORTENSIA, 4-TAAMEER Race 6: 9-MALDIVIAN, 12-ALAMOSA, 13-PLAYWRIGHT Race 7: 15-RED ELEMENT , 8-MONET RULES, 4-TYPHOON ZED Race 8: 16-BIRD ON FIRE, 2-DEVIL MOON, 11-DANE JULIA Race 9: 4-GLORY HUNTER, 7-SARATIME, 3-SONIC QUEST

RACE 1: RESULTS

Tips: 4-BENATAR 1st W=$2.70 10-LA GOULUE SCR 7-OFFER IT UP

RACE 2: RESULTS

Tips: 11-WOPPIT 3rd W=$5.30 1-LUCKY SECRET 1st W=$3.50 12-KIONI

RACE 3: RESULTS

Tips: 8-FLY HIGHER 1st W=$4.10 *** best bet *** 2-DARPANA 6-EXPEDITIONNAIRE

RACE 4: RESULTS

Tips: 14-ALLIED FORCE 3rd W=$1.60 13-SAMADJI 12-COGNAC BAY

RACE 5: RESULTS

Tips: 2-VIENNESE 10-ORTENSIA 2nd W=$5.40 4-TAAMEER

RACE 6: RESULTS

Tips: 9-MALDIVIAN 12-ALAMOSA 13-PLAYWRIGHT

RACE 7: RESULTS

Tips: 15-RED ELEMENT 8-MONET RULES 4-TYPHOON ZED 1st W=$7.50

RACE 8: RESULTS

Tips: 16-BIRD OF FIRE 3rd W=$20.90, P=$4.70 *** best rough *** 2-DEVIL MOON 2nd W=$2.80 11-DANE JULIA

RACE 9: RESULTS

Tips: 4-GLORY HUNTER 7-SARATIME 3-SONIC QUEST

RACE 7: MANIKATO STAKES GROUP 1 1200M WFA

Tips: 15-RED ELEMENT 8-MONET RULES 4-TYPHOON ZED 1st W=$7.50

Others: 13, 12,10 Pace: FAST Leaders : 2-KAPHERO, 15-RED ELEMENT Handy : 1-MR BARITONE, 4-TYPHOON ZED, 7-HERE DE ANGELS, 8-MONET RULES, 13-ALL AMERICAN, 16-ANTARCTIC MISS (emerg) Back : 3-SHADOWAYS, 5-CARGO CULT , 6-DR NIPANDTUCK, 9-PILLAR OF HERCULES, 10-ABSOLUT GLAM, 11-MISS JUDGEMENT , 12-BEL MER, 14-SIDEREUS, 17-SUNBURNT LAND (emerg),18-ARLINGTON(emerg) Chances: 4-TYPHOON ZED is an honest on pace sprinter who is one of the few in this field proven at this level. Form this time in has been excellent, and like that he has drawn out – much rather prefer them drawn out over these MV sprint trips so at least they get a clear run. Slight query at the 1200M – hasn’t won past 1100M. Like that he carried weight to win last start. Race fit, in form and extremely well suited here as the proven group sprinter, so strong chance. 8-MONET RULES ran a very nice race fresh as he often does, just thought he came out and made his run a little too early, and wasn’t beaten very far at all in a 3 way finish. Record this track and distance is good, probably prefers a little give in the ground though. Just think he will get this race run to suit though – enough pressure up front, he can sit just behind the speed and out wide, and get into the clear to make his run around the home turn. Strong chance. 1st W=$7.50 12-BEL MER seems to be on the improve and has now learnt to settle and make a run, rather than just jump and run. Not much between her , the (8) and the (15) last start in a driving finish – and interesting to note that she won, and meets both of them better at the weights under WFA scale. Definitely a strong chance on form, that barrier (18) though looks a real worry – didn’t know they could count that high at MV?. Will start widest barrier once scratchings are made. Really comes down to riding tactics, temptation would be to ride her back from the barrier, if she pushes forward to race handy like she normally does will be caught out very wide. Definitely a chance on form, and on weights, barrier is a major turn off though. 13-ALL AMERICAN is a 3YO at WFA and often these sprinting light weight 3YOs can go OK. 2nd up, but dropping back in distance, which we like, going into a hard run 1200M. Didn’t have much luck 1st up, and won 1st two starts here. Nicely drawn so hopefully they don’t need to drop too far back today. Think he has to go in as a genuine chance. 15-RED ELEMENT is a sprinter on the rise and definite factor now he gets into the field. Won 4 in a row before last start, and last start put in a huge run when 3 wide all the way from wide barrier and still stuck on to be right in the finish. Drawn barrier 1 and should jump and lead here and good chance on pacers will be suited. Hasn’t been around in this class before, but think he will probably measure up. Looked a real sprinting type in the mounting yard at Caulfield, on toes, primed and ready to run. Likely to be some pressure up front here, but just get the impression he is on the rise and going to be a quality sprinter. Last run was huge and happy to get on now he is in the field. Strong chance. Place: 1-MR BARITONE is pretty talented on his day, though most of recent best form has been on rain affected tracks and gets a dry track today. Did win a Group 1 to end previous campaign, but would have said otherwise was not quite up to Group 1 class. Won 1st up last time in over 1200M here, and fresh record looks pretty good – actually placed 4 from 5 and ran 4th the other time – all over 1200M. Drawn to sit just behind the speed here and might get a good run into the race. This does look a task 1st up on a dry track, but put him in as the value place bet for trifecta/first fours. 7-HERE DE ANGELS was extremely disappointing 1st up, but fairly sure he just did not handle the wet track, which we raised as an issue in our form guide for that race. 2nd up and up 200M here, drawn out and probably goes forward, so might get caught wide, but at least will get clear running. Probably only just gets 1200M – has struggled to find best down the straight over 1200M, probably just gets it around the bend here. Probably sits just behind speed out wide, so should be able to put himself right into this race. But failed in this race last year, coming off a win in the McEwen, so probably prefer place at best. 10-ABSOLUT GLAM is a pretty classy mare who won 1st up over 1200M last time in. Lightly raced and still likely to pull out a run fresh, maybe watch market to see if she gets any support. Inside barrier the worry again though, will need luck to get through the field to be a factor in this .Prefer place. 2nd W=$7.50 16-ANTARCTIC MISS (emerg) was tried over the longer trips last spring, but does seem best suited as a sprinter. Has a bit of speed and a nice barrier, so probably just adds to the pressure up front if she gets a start. Strong effort in the 1000 Guineas to stick on after leading. Showed speed at only run this year then turned out again. Probably a place chance from barrier if she gets a run. Sacking: 2-KAPHERO is absolutely flying and only needs one more MV win to get the free souvenir cap and t-shirt. As we said last time, totally rejuvenated horse, used to cruise in front and look like he was going to have the race in his mercy – only to fall into a hole over the last 50M. All that changed about a year ago and has found his niche at MV over the 1000M – unbeaten here at MV 1000M last 5 attempts. Has been winning them with big weights too, and never looked like he was going to loose on leader’s track here last start. So big question here – 1200M ?. Interesting, only 3 tries at the distance – 4L win in Adel, failures in Golden Slipper as a 2YO and one run down the Flem straight, so guess maybe shouldn’t totally write him off. But looks like there will be pressure up front here, and punter’s instinct is just telling us we should take him on today. Suspect they will cuddle him outside the lead to try and make him finish off over the distance. Ready to drop off after collecting last start and want to risk him over the 1200M. No. 3rd W=$4.80 3-SHADOWAYS can be a little hard to follow and even more frustrating to bet on – stack of ability, but does tend to drop well back in his races and come with a withering finishing burst – only problem is in sprints something racing forward has already grabbed the break on him and it’s too late. Recent barrier trial winner so likely to be forward first up, and fresh form is good. Just think inside barrier is a big problem – lots of speed up front, he should drop well back and will struggle to get out from inside barrier, else have to go around field. Passing. 5-CARGO CULT is being held together by packing tape and blu tac as he continues to struggle with injuries and achy joints and old creaky bones. Fitter for 2 runs in, 1st up run was an eye catcher when was not ridden out to line as jockey had nowhere to go, then injured and given freshen up after last run. Stronger finisher who will be suited by speed on here, but another who will be giving them a start and would need an awful lot of luck. Wait and see how he comes up, as does have a history of injury problems and probably not that far from the retirement home. 6-DR NIPANDTUCK ran a bottler in this race last year, best as a sprinter and on tracks with some give in them – so dry track today probably does not suit. Totally lost form over winter, given a break and didn’t show much at all 1st up in McEwen. Last year put a huge run in the McEwen going into this, so hard to see him being a factor here. Wait till he shows form again. SCRATCHED 9-PILLAR OF HERCULES wasn’t beaten too far 1st up, but much better over more distance Drawn extremely wide, will drop well back and suspect will be run off feet here. No 11-MISS JUDGEMENT is a pretty handy sprinter who we think does races best when ridden to the lead. Not far off them 1st up, and she stuck back to the inside which was probably the worse ground. Attempted all the Group 1 sprinter over autumn/winter and was thereabouts, but not quite up to them. Probably needs to be ridden back here from barrier, as will get trapped out if pushes forward. Just think best races are when gets to jump and run to lead, and that is not likely to happen here. Passing. 14-SIDEREUS is another 3YO who wasn’t too far off them 1st up, but interesting to note started at long odds in own class. 2YO form is OK without being outstanding, and think this barrier and class today will test. NO 17-SUNBURNT LAND (emerg) is struggling to get a run, always disappointing to line up for hours to be turned away at the door. Fair bit of talent and one on the rise, but has shown a liking for bigger tracks and unlikely to get a run here anyways. If he does, outside barrier and dropping back will make it tough. No 18-ARLINGTON(emerg) won 1st up last time in, unlikely to get a run here unless there is a nasty pile up in the carpark on the way in. Has won recent barrier trial so forward for this, and would be suited by the speed on, but looks outclassed in this. Summary: Looks a value betting race so happy to have a bit of a bet, big even field so sure to be nice odds about whatever you want to back. Key points to consider, Group 1 WFA sprint, so look for those proven at the level, and it may be a conspiracy theory, but personal preference is we prefer to back horses drawn middle barriers in sprints at MV – just means they can get out and get running around the home turn. They often race tight in these 1000M/1200M MV races ,and those trapped back on the inside, or those who need to come around the whole field struggle to win. Remember only 14 to make this field, so all the barriers will move in accordingly. With early scratching the first emergency gets a run, – leaders are 2-KAPHERO, 15-RED ELEMENT with 4-TYPHOON ZED, 7-HERE DE ANGELS, 8-MONET RULES, 16-ANTARCTIC MISS (emerg) and maybe 12-BEL MER jostling forward to find a position. Think there will be a bit of pressure up front, quite a few of these need to cross from outside barriers, but 15-RED ELEMENT should jump and run and lead and suspect they might hold off on 2-KAPHERO on his outside to get him to run the trip. Quite happy to risk 2-KAPHERO over the 1200M though reserve the right to sweat profusely if turns out that leaders are strongly favoured again today. So despite, not being proven at the class, and despite there being pressure up front we are keen to go with 15-RED ELEMENT should jump and run and stick to the rails. Not sure he should be equal favourite though stepping up to this class, but his last run was outstanding and is on the up. 8-MONET RULES and 4-TYPHOON ZED the main dangers and these should both be right in the finish – will get nice runs sitting behind the speed and get into the clear at the right time for a run – and both seem value at the odds on offer as proven class sprinters. Respect the 3YO 13-ALL AMERICAN who will probably appreciate the pace on here. Plenty of value and happy to bet. One to risk: 2-KAPHERO 3rd W=$4.80 Roughie: 1-MR BARITONE RESULTS : Pretty close to the mark here in the form preview, 4-TYPHOON ZED wins, only just, and only just gets the 1200M, but gets perfect run into race sitting outside the speed. 10-ABSOLUT GLAM should have won, just get held up getting into the clear on home turn from inside barrier, and dear ol' 2-KAPHERO runs a huge race, kicking clear on home turn and looking the winner - but you just kinda knew he was going to get swamped in the last 50M.